Draft questions

[dhsux]

For those in the know.....a few questions.

If the Blues go with Hensler, is it a need pick and/or how close is he to the BPA??

Also, what are the odds the Blues try to move up or down on draft day? I haven't seen too much talk about this curious what ya'll may think.

Is this a good time/place to try to move some of their "assets"?

[seattleblue]

The Blues are picking right at the end of the perceived shelf in round 1 where there's a tier dropoff. Someone unexpected, except for last year exception proves the rule, always drops.

We should draft BPA. But also it's kind of flat at 19, I would be happy with RHD Brzustewicz or Hensler, or LD Smith, Aitcheson, or Reid (first two should be taken by then), or RW (Carbonneau) or C (Reschny, Kindel, Potter) or LW (Bear, Lakovic, Spence)

[kimzey59]

Obviously it would depend on who’s still on the board, but there would be a pretty good argument that Hensler would be the bpa at 19. Yes, he’s a bit of a “safe” pick but he’s safe in the same way Neighbors was. Pretty good odds that he’s an NHL’er but the high end upside is in question(is he a #4 or can he be a 2/3 type?). I would actually be extremely happy if Hensler ended up as our pick. Combined with Broberg and Lindstein we would have a pretty solid base for our future defense.


As for moves at the draft, I just don’t think we have the draft pick capital to make a move this year. There’s other ways we could make things work if we really wanted to, but going into the draft with just 3 picks isn’t really a good spot to be dealing from. I’m not going to rule it out completely, simply because Army is a Sith Lord and can melt the brains of other GM’s; but I don’t see it as being likely.

[zamadoo]

The Blues are picking right at the end of the perceived shelf in round 1 where there's a tier dropoff. Someone unexpected, except for last year exception proves the rule, always drops.

We should draft BPA. But also it's kind of flat at 19, I would be happy with RHD Brzustewicz or Hensler, or LD Smith, Aitcheson, or Reid (first two should be taken by then), or RW (Carbonneau) or C (Reschny, Kindel, Potter) or LW (Bear, Lakovic, Spence)

Does Smith have any chance of making it to 19? Same with Bear?

Potter is intriguing, but is he a center? Carbonneau also intriguing for similar reasons.

[dhsux]

Thanks for the responses ....glad there's a consensus on Hensler, being the position guy the Blues are in need of now and near.

[TruBlueFan_1970]

I like Malcolm Spence, but don’t think he will be there. Given their lack of assets (only 3 picks this whole draft), what I haven’t heard is anyone talking about potentially trading back to pick up a pick. I’m certainly not a draft expert, but if reading above that there is a tier drop off near our pick, could we get someone of similar talent/value 5-7 spots later? Maybe some other team with a lot of draft capital has their eye on someone in that 18-20 range.

I don’t know, just a thought.

[STL fan in MN]

I like Malcolm Spence, but don’t think he will be there. Given their lack of assets (only 3 picks this whole draft), what I haven’t heard is anyone talking about potentially trading back to pick up a pick. I’m certainly not a draft expert, but if reading above that there is a tier drop off near our pick, could we get someone of similar talent/value 5-7 spots later? Maybe some other team with a lot of draft capital has their eye on someone in that 18-20 range.

I don’t know, just a thought.

I’d say the odds of Spence being available at 19 is well over 50%. He’s projected more around the early to mid 20s.

Moving back has been discussed here but most, including me, are against it. With there being a tier drop off about there, we’re going to be lucky to get a player in that tier at 19 IMO. So it becomes much less likely if you move back 5 or so spots. So I wouldn’t do it unless everyone I like is gone and the next guy I like I think will still be available 5 or so spots later.

[STL fan in MN]

For those in the know.....a few questions.

If the Blues go with Hensler, is it a need pick and/or how close is he to the BPA??

Also, what are the odds the Blues try to move up or down on draft day? I haven't seen too much talk about this curious what ya'll may think.

Is this a good time/place to try to move some of their "assets"?

There’s at least 10 players that could be considered BPA at 19, Hensler included. Whether he’d be considered BPA or a pick for need would be a matter of opinion. There’s a few others in that range I like more but I’d be fine with Hensler. He’s safe, boring, fills a need.

Odds they move up or down? Near impossible to say as it takes 2 to tango. But I’d bet on them staying where they’re at. That said, with the rankings all over the place, I expect for moves up and down this year than most.

The draft is always a good time for trades. But what assets are you referring to specifically?

[Red7]

I want them to take the biggest, most mobile player available. Defense or forward, does not matter. No broken players. No lightweights. Even if they have to reach a bit. Can they skate and win puck battles anywhere on the ice. That’s who I want.

[dhsux]

For those in the know.....a few questions.

If the Blues go with Hensler, is it a need pick and/or how close is he to the BPA??

Also, what are the odds the Blues try to move up or down on draft day? I haven't seen too much talk about this curious what ya'll may think.

Is this a good time/place to try to move some of their "assets"?

There’s at least 10 players that could be considered BPA at 19, Hensler included. Whether he’d be considered BPA or a pick for need would be a matter of opinion. There’s a few others in that range I like more but I’d be fine with Hensler. He’s safe, boring, fills a need.

Odds they move up or down? Near impossible to say as it takes 2 to tango. But I’d bet on them staying where they’re at. That said, with the rankings all over the place, I expect for moves up and down this year than most.

The draft is always a good time for trades. But what assets are you referring to specifically?

I guess wondering along the lines of prospects. But not sure the sense of that unless they really had a target pick right?

DA's never been the conventional sort but I'm guessing the draft might be his time to make some moves.

[Stlcardsblues]

For those in the know.....a few questions.

If the Blues go with Hensler, is it a need pick and/or how close is he to the BPA??

Also, what are the odds the Blues try to move up or down on draft day? I haven't seen too much talk about this curious what ya'll may think.

Is this a good time/place to try to move some of their "assets"?

Never agreed with drafting based on need. You always take best available then use trades to fill needs. Drafting based on need results in back picks who are drafted way ahead of where they should be.

Now if you have two players ranked extremely close on your draft board and need a tie breaker, use need there as the tie breaker.

[TheHighHat]

The last 20 players drafted at pick #19
24 T. Connelly
23 O. Moore
22 L. Ohgren
21 F. Svechkov
20 B. Schneider
19 L. Thomson
18 J. O'Brien
17 J. Norris
16 K. Bellows
15 E. Svechnikov
14 T. DeAngelo
13 K. Rychel
12 A. Vasilevskiy
11 O. Klefbom
10 N. Bjugstad
09 C. Kreider
08 L. Sbisa
07 L. MacMillan
06 M. Mitera
05 J. Kindl

Vasilevskiy is a probable HOF'er.
A handful of the other players have had decent to good NHL careers.
3 guys never played in the NHL.
TBD: The players from the last 4 drafts.

Cherry picking the top 5 players drafted at #19 going back to 1979
R. Getzlaf in 03
K. Tkachuk in 90
M. Straka in 92
O. Kolzig in 89
R. Regehr in 98

[STL fan in MN]

The Blues are picking right at the end of the perceived shelf in round 1 where there's a tier dropoff. Someone unexpected, except for last year exception proves the rule, always drops.

We should draft BPA. But also it's kind of flat at 19, I would be happy with RHD Brzustewicz or Hensler, or LD Smith, Aitcheson, or Reid (first two should be taken by then), or RW (Carbonneau) or C (Reschny, Kindel, Potter) or LW (Bear, Lakovic, Spence)

Does Smith have any chance of making it to 19? Same with Bear?

Potter is intriguing, but is he a center? Carbonneau also intriguing for similar reasons.

I’d be surprised if Smith lasted to 19. He’s got size and good two-way ability.

I’d say there’s a less than 50% chance Bear is there at 19 but still a solid chance. I think he’s underrated. Perhaps teams will be cautious with him and he’ll drop because of his a cut to his Achilles that ended his season a bit early. But he’s already back skating so it doesn’t concern me at all. Would love Bear at 19.

Potter plays C at ASU but will he be able to play C in the NHL? I doubt it.

Carbonneau is a RW and has hardly any of the same strengths and weaknesses as Potter so confused what your “similar reasons” are.

[billybaseball]

Ivan Ryabkin will be the BPA if he's still on the board. Hopefully the Blues have the balls to pick him.

But Hensler would be a solid pick. Wisconsin's struggles in the first half hurt his draft stock significantly but ,from what I've heard, he played exceptionally well in the second half. Good size, mobil but offensive upside is in question.

[dhsux]

The last 20 players drafted at pick #19
24 T. Connelly
23 O. Moore
22 L. Ohgren
21 F. Svechkov
20 B. Schneider
19 L. Thomson
18 J. O'Brien
17 J. Norris
16 K. Bellows
15 E. Svechnikov
14 T. DeAngelo
13 K. Rychel
12 A. Vasilevskiy
11 O. Klefbom
10 N. Bjugstad
09 C. Kreider
08 L. Sbisa
07 L. MacMillan
06 M. Mitera
05 J. Kindl

Vasilevskiy is a probable HOF'er.
A handful of the other players have had decent to good NHL careers.
3 guys never played in the NHL.
TBD: The players from the last 4 drafts.

Cherry picking the top 5 players drafted at #19 going back to 1979
R. Getzlaf in 03
K. Tkachuk in 90
M. Straka in 92
O. Kolzig in 89
R. Regehr in 98

Good perspective there...thanks.

[zamadoo]

I’d be surprised if Smith lasted to 19. He’s got size and good two-way ability.

I’d say there’s a less than 50% chance Bear is there at 19 but still a solid chance. I think he’s underrated. Perhaps teams will be cautious with him and he’ll drop because of his a cut to his Achilles that ended his season a bit early. But he’s already back skating so it doesn’t concern me at all. Would love Bear at 19.

Potter plays C at ASU but will he be able to play C in the NHL? I doubt it.

Carbonneau is a RW and has hardly any of the same strengths and weaknesses as Potter so confused what your “similar reasons” are.

I thought Smith was closer to top-10. Same with Bear, but yeah that laceration could make him drop. I wonder about him (and Cootes to a degree) being a high-motor, high-effort player - does he have another level come playoff time? Is much of his success because of that effort/IQ rather than skill?

Potter seems like a speed burning offensive type, and Carbonneau seems like an only offense type - I actually thought Carbonneau was smaller than he is, but I used "similar" rather than "same" because I realize they're not the same player. What I don't like about Carbonneau is that he's a one-man show. Blues could probably use a guy who is 1000% shoot first/only shoot/never pass though (and please correct me if I'm wrong about him, I have only seen scouting reports).

Ivan Ryabkin will be the BPA if he's still on the board. Hopefully the Blues have the balls to pick him.

But Hensler would be a solid pick. Wisconsin's struggles in the first half hurt his draft stock significantly but ,from what I've heard, he played exceptionally well in the second half. Good size, mobil but offensive upside is in question.

This is my pick - I think Ryabkin is just the player we need in our prospect pool.

Would also be just fine with Hensler at 19, though I thought he would go before 19.

Any chance Mrtka falls that far?