rockondlouie wrote: ↑01 Jun 2025 11:09 am
No need to rush Winn until after his third season...
The fundamental problem with waiting until they are ARB eligible is that the team loses a lot of its negotiating leverage.
Once Winn finishes 2026, if he's played very well through then, he's already guaranteed $4, $5, etc. million for 2027. He'll be guaranteed basically "set for life" money.
If you do the deal before that, maybe he signs for a deeper discount to be guaranteed "set for life" money before he plays through the 2026 season.
We've wrestled w/this before matt
Your point is well taken, as is mine that rushing can lead to a poor outcome if the player stalls at his current level.
You loved using the young Braves extensions:
-Acuna has had a major injury costing him from May, 2024 till May, 2025 and may never steal bases like he did before
-Albies is struggling horrible 2024/2025: .245 .304 .385 .689
-Riley 2024/2025: 263 .327 .457 .783 may be the poster child for NOT doing it too early, a 10-year, $212 million contract extension that looks horrible overpriced now
-Harris, Jr has flopped 2024/2025: .255 .292 .394 .686 and has an overpriced 8 year, $72,000,000 contract
-Strider 2024/2025 5.48 ERA in only 5 starts after signing his six-year, $75 million contract
HORRIBLE LOOKING MOVES NOW by the BRAVES!
And NO PLAYER signs for a "deep discount" any more matt, their agents know the market and every player seems to want every single penny they can get.
And I still love the Braves' deals.
Albies was signed for just $35 million for 2019-2025. He's already produced 15.6 fWAR, to date, over that period. That's a HR for the Braves no matter what he does this season. Where would they be with Albies right now had they waited until after his 4.2 fWAR 2019 season or his 3.8 fWAR 2021 season to give him a much larger extension to get him to sign long term?
Acuna was signed for $100 million for 2019-2026. He's already produced 24.5 fWAR, to date, over that period. That's HR for the Braves - and he's got a year and a half to go (plus TWO team option years). Where would they be with Acuna had they waited until after his 9.1 fWAR season in 2023 to give him a $300+ million deal?
Harris was $72 million over 2023-2030. He's produced 6.1 fWAR over his first 2 1/3 seasons of that deal. Even if he's just a 1.5-2.0 fWAR per year player (basically like his 2024 season) going forward, that's also a win for the Braves.
With Riley they actually made the mistake - like you propose with Winn - of waiting until they had to give him a more expensive deal ($212 million over 2023-2032) instead of likely getting a significantly cheaper deal done after his 1st breakout season in 2021.
And we'll have to see how Strider comes back from injury. If he's healthy even for 2026-2028, that deal will also be good for them.
You say "win" for Braves, I say as to date HUGE LOSS for Braves!
They're a struggling 27 - 30 team locked into what could become some horrible LT extensions given out way, way too soon.
Noot & Donny 4-5 yr extensions after this season.
Winn after his 3rd year and that could end up being a 10 year deal if he keeps ascending.
rockondlouie wrote: ↑01 Jun 2025 11:09 am
No need to rush Winn until after his third season...
The fundamental problem with waiting until they are ARB eligible is that the team loses a lot of its negotiating leverage.
Once Winn finishes 2026, if he's played very well through then, he's already guaranteed $4, $5, etc. million for 2027. He'll be guaranteed basically "set for life" money.
If you do the deal before that, maybe he signs for a deeper discount to be guaranteed "set for life" money before he plays through the 2026 season.
We've wrestled w/this before matt
Your point is well taken, as is mine that rushing can lead to a poor outcome if the player stalls at his current level.
You loved using the young Braves extensions:
-Acuna has had a major injury costing him from May, 2024 till May, 2025 and may never steal bases like he did before
-Albies is struggling horrible 2024/2025: .245 .304 .385 .689
-Riley 2024/2025: 263 .327 .457 .783 may be the poster child for NOT doing it too early, a 10-year, $212 million contract extension that looks horrible overpriced now
-Harris, Jr has flopped 2024/2025: .255 .292 .394 .686 and has an overpriced 8 year, $72,000,000 contract
-Strider 2024/2025 5.48 ERA in only 5 starts after signing his six-year, $75 million contract
HORRIBLE LOOKING MOVES NOW by the BRAVES!
And NO PLAYER signs for a "deep discount" any more matt, their agents know the market and every player seems to want every single penny they can get.
And I still love the Braves' deals.
Albies was signed for just $35 million for 2019-2025. He's already produced 15.6 fWAR, to date, over that period. That's a HR for the Braves no matter what he does this season. Where would they be with Albies right now had they waited until after his 4.2 fWAR 2019 season or his 3.8 fWAR 2021 season to give him a much larger extension to get him to sign long term?
Acuna was signed for $100 million for 2019-2026. He's already produced 24.5 fWAR, to date, over that period. That's HR for the Braves - and he's got a year and a half to go (plus TWO team option years). Where would they be with Acuna had they waited until after his 9.1 fWAR season in 2023 to give him a $300+ million deal?
Harris was $72 million over 2023-2030. He's produced 6.1 fWAR over his first 2 1/3 seasons of that deal. Even if he's just a 1.5-2.0 fWAR per year player (basically like his 2024 season) going forward, that's also a win for the Braves.
With Riley they actually made the mistake - like you propose with Winn - of waiting until they had to give him a more expensive deal ($212 million over 2023-2032) instead of likely getting a significantly cheaper deal done after his 1st breakout season in 2021.
And we'll have to see how Strider comes back from injury. If he's healthy even for 2026-2028, that deal will also be good for them.
You say "win" for Braves, I say as to date HUGE LOSS for Braves!
The only measure of a "win" for an individual deal is whether the team got production on the field commensurate with what they paid in the contract.
So the Braves' deals, taken as a whole, have been a big win for the organization.
If you think the Braves' deals have been a "huge loss" you are being a prisoner of the moment and only focusing on this year vs. what has happened, and may yet happen, over the very long run of those deals.
And, again, you don't deal with the reality that had the Braves waited on Albies and Acuna, they would right now be tied to them for even more expensive long term deals. So if you think their current deals are "bad" (they're not), deals signed later would have been much, much worse.
rockondlouie wrote: ↑01 Jun 2025 11:09 am
No need to rush Winn until after his third season...
The fundamental problem with waiting until they are ARB eligible is that the team loses a lot of its negotiating leverage.
Once Winn finishes 2026, if he's played very well through then, he's already guaranteed $4, $5, etc. million for 2027. He'll be guaranteed basically "set for life" money.
If you do the deal before that, maybe he signs for a deeper discount to be guaranteed "set for life" money before he plays through the 2026 season.
We've wrestled w/this before matt
Your point is well taken, as is mine that rushing can lead to a poor outcome if the player stalls at his current level.
You loved using the young Braves extensions:
-Acuna has had a major injury costing him from May, 2024 till May, 2025 and may never steal bases like he did before
-Albies is struggling horrible 2024/2025: .245 .304 .385 .689
-Riley 2024/2025: 263 .327 .457 .783 may be the poster child for NOT doing it too early, a 10-year, $212 million contract extension that looks horrible overpriced now
-Harris, Jr has flopped 2024/2025: .255 .292 .394 .686 and has an overpriced 8 year, $72,000,000 contract
-Strider 2024/2025 5.48 ERA in only 5 starts after signing his six-year, $75 million contract
HORRIBLE LOOKING MOVES NOW by the BRAVES!
And NO PLAYER signs for a "deep discount" any more matt, their agents know the market and every player seems to want every single penny they can get.
And I still love the Braves' deals.
Albies was signed for just $35 million for 2019-2025. He's already produced 15.6 fWAR, to date, over that period. That's a HR for the Braves no matter what he does this season. Where would they be with Albies right now had they waited until after his 4.2 fWAR 2019 season or his 3.8 fWAR 2021 season to give him a much larger extension to get him to sign long term?
Acuna was signed for $100 million for 2019-2026. He's already produced 24.5 fWAR, to date, over that period. That's HR for the Braves - and he's got a year and a half to go (plus TWO team option years). Where would they be with Acuna had they waited until after his 9.1 fWAR season in 2023 to give him a $300+ million deal?
Harris was $72 million over 2023-2030. He's produced 6.1 fWAR over his first 2 1/3 seasons of that deal. Even if he's just a 1.5-2.0 fWAR per year player (basically like his 2024 season) going forward, that's also a win for the Braves.
With Riley they actually made the mistake - like you propose with Winn - of waiting until they had to give him a more expensive deal ($212 million over 2023-2032) instead of likely getting a significantly cheaper deal done after his 1st breakout season in 2021.
And we'll have to see how Strider comes back from injury. If he's healthy even for 2026-2028, that deal will also be good for them.
You say "win" for Braves, I say as to date HUGE LOSS for Braves!
The only measure of a "win" for an individual deal is whether the team got production on the field commensurate with what they paid in the contract.
So the Braves' deals, taken as a whole, have been a big win for the organization.
If you think the Braves' deals have been a "huge loss" you are being a prisoner of the moment and only focusing on this year vs. what has happened, and may yet happen, over the very long run of those deals.
And, again, you don't deal with the reality that had the Braves waited on Albies and Acuna, they would right now be tied to them for even more expensive long term deals. So if you think their current deals are "bad" (they're not), deals signed later would have been much, much worse.
Disagree 100% and no matt I'm not a "prisoner of the moment" because I disagree w/you.
BIG loss for the Braves organization who would've had MULTI MILLIONS of dollars more to spend on other player additions had they waited on all those extensions (minus Acuna's)!
AND if they did wait, then they'd get all those players (sans Acuna) for way LESS!
Reality, what reality they gave Acuna his deal in 2019 or after his rookie year, Albies after his first full season so they DID'NT WAIT.
mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑01 Jun 2025 09:01 am
It always depends on the price.
Six years/$12 million (a $2 million AAV) is different than six years/$100 million (a $16.6 million AAV).
Any remotely significant young player could a long term extension, at the right price for the risk/reward balance that it represents for the team.
THIS ^^^ ! if Donovan wants a 5 year deal for $25 million to secure hs family for life, have a nice life and play big league ball for a career as a Cardinal leader, I'm all for it. He would be my favorite player of all time and would vote for him to be in the Cards hall of fame right now. 5 years $100 million not so much. These guys make way too much money, that trickles down to us fans. I'm all for the league and owners in the next union contract, I want a hockey salary cap.
rockondlouie wrote: ↑01 Jun 2025 12:24 pm
AND if they did wait, then they'd get all those players (sans Acuna) for way LESS!
Reality, what reality they gave Acuna his deal in 2019 or after his rookie year, Albies after his first full season so they DID'NT WAIT.
No, they wouldn't.
Had they waited until after 2019 or 2021 or 2023 to give Albies an extension, and any team would have been looking to extend him, they'd have him signed now to a $100+ million deal that has multiple years to go, instead of being able to walk away from his really cheap deal after this year.
Again, they WAITED on Riley and that's why his deal is MUCH more expensive than either Acuna or Albies.
The Riley deal has the potential to turn out to be the worst of lot because they WAITED until they had to give him a much bigger contract to get him to sign long term.
You're a "prisoner of the moment" because you focus on Albies deal being bad because he's been bad this season, or because Acuna and Strider have gotten hurt and you haven't yet seen them get back to full performance level.
rockondlouie wrote: ↑01 Jun 2025 12:24 pm
AND if they did wait, then they'd get all those players (sans Acuna) for way LESS!
Reality, what reality they gave Acuna his deal in 2019 or after his rookie year, Albies after his first full season so they DID'NT WAIT.
No, they wouldn't.
Had they waited until after 2019 or 2021 or 2023 to give Albies an extension, and any team would have been looking to extend him, they'd have him signed now to a $100+ million deal that has multiple years to go, instead of being able to walk away from his really cheap deal after this year.
Again, they WAITED on Riley and that's why his deal is MUCH more expensive than either Acuna or Albies.
The Riley deal has the potential to turn out to be the worst of lot because they WAITED until they had to give him a much bigger contract to get him to sign long term.
Absolut wrote: ↑31 May 2025 19:15 pm
Dunno. I’m ok waiting a bit more than 400 at bats, and actually figuring out a position for Herrera before we throw stupid money at him.
Last 7 games
167/276/208/484...24 ABs of his 87 ABs this year
Let's not get to wild about 87 ABs. Be hopeful, but many a player cam get hot for 60 games
He’s a .299 .378 OBP .820 OPS in 122 career games so it’s not really 87 ABs it’s 400+ I wouldn’t get too wild over a 7 game slump
rockondlouie wrote: ↑01 Jun 2025 12:43 pm
No way Albies gets $100M.
Albies hit .295/.352/.500 in 2019, .259/.310/.488 in 2021, and .280/.336/.513 (33 HRs, 109 RBI) in 2023. He would have gotten PAID if the Braves, or anyone else, had been signing him to a long term deal. He'd have gotten a Javy Baez contact (6 yrs./$140 million) or so.
Riley would be looking at half his deal.
They might have signed Riley to half the deal they did had they signed him right after the 2021 season instead of waiting.
Harris way less too.
Way too soon to tell.
Strider wouldn't have an extension.
Way too soon to tell how this works out. He lost a year to surgery, like many pitchers. If he comes back to his 2022-2023 form in 2026-2028, it's still a HR signing for the Braves.
Absolut wrote: ↑31 May 2025 19:15 pm
Dunno. I’m ok waiting a bit more than 400 at bats, and actually figuring out a position for Herrera before we throw stupid money at him.
Last 7 games
167/276/208/484...24 ABs of his 87 ABs this year
Let's not get to wild about 87 ABs. Be hopeful, but many a player cam get hot for 60 games
He’s a .299 .378 OBP .820 OPS in 122 career games so it’s not really 87 ABs it’s 400+ I wouldn’t get too wild over a 7 game slump
Absolut wrote: ↑31 May 2025 19:15 pm
Dunno. I’m ok waiting a bit more than 400 at bats, and actually figuring out a position for Herrera before we throw stupid money at him.
Last 7 games
167/276/208/484...24 ABs of his 87 ABs this year
Let's not get to wild about 87 ABs. Be hopeful, but many a player cam get hot for 60 games
He’s a .299 .378 OBP .820 OPS in 122 career games so it’s not really 87 ABs it’s 400+ I wouldn’t get too wild over a 7 game slump
Those are across 4 years
Yes in 122 games but you’re judging him because of a 7 game slump lol as if he should be the only player in baseball player to never have a slump
Absolut wrote: ↑31 May 2025 19:15 pm
Dunno. I’m ok waiting a bit more than 400 at bats, and actually figuring out a position for Herrera before we throw stupid money at him.
Last 7 games
167/276/208/484...24 ABs of his 87 ABs this year
Let's not get to wild about 87 ABs. Be hopeful, but many a player cam get hot for 60 games
He’s a .299 .378 OBP .820 OPS in 122 career games so it’s not really 87 ABs it’s 400+ I wouldn’t get too wild over a 7 game slump
Those are across 4 years
Yes in 122 games but you’re judging him because of a 7 game slump lol as if he should be the only player in baseball player to never have a slump
I am stating facts about his 24 ABs out of 87..
Facts. Plain and simple.
Absolut wrote: ↑31 May 2025 19:15 pm
Dunno. I’m ok waiting a bit more than 400 at bats, and actually figuring out a position for Herrera before we throw stupid money at him.
Last 7 games
167/276/208/484...24 ABs of his 87 ABs this year
Let's not get to wild about 87 ABs. Be hopeful, but many a player cam get hot for 60 games
Yes. They should've extended Bo Hart back in the day. . Ok well Herrera has more prospect cred than Hart ever did. But wait until his position is clarified.
Absolut wrote: ↑31 May 2025 19:15 pm
Dunno. I’m ok waiting a bit more than 400 at bats, and actually figuring out a position for Herrera before we throw stupid money at him.
Last 7 games
167/276/208/484...24 ABs of his 87 ABs this year
Let's not get to wild about 87 ABs. Be hopeful, but many a player cam get hot for 60 games
Yes. They should've extended Bo Hart back in the day. . Ok well Herrera has more prospect cred than Hart ever did. But wait until his position is clarified.
Absolut wrote: ↑31 May 2025 19:15 pm
Dunno. I’m ok waiting a bit more than 400 at bats, and actually figuring out a position for Herrera before we throw stupid money at him.
Last 7 games
167/276/208/484...24 ABs of his 87 ABs this year
Let's not get to wild about 87 ABs. Be hopeful, but many a player cam get hot for 60 games
Yes. They should've extended Bo Hart back in the day. . Ok well Herrera has more prospect cred than Hart ever did. But wait until his position is clarified.
Absolut wrote: ↑31 May 2025 19:15 pm
Dunno. I’m ok waiting a bit more than 400 at bats, and actually figuring out a position for Herrera before we throw stupid money at him.
Last 7 games
167/276/208/484...24 ABs of his 87 ABs this year
Let's not get to wild about 87 ABs. Be hopeful, but many a player cam get hot for 60 games
He’s a .299 .378 OBP .820 OPS in 122 career games so it’s not really 87 ABs it’s 400+ I wouldn’t get too wild over a 7 game slump
Those are across 4 years
Yes in 122 games but you’re judging him because of a 7 game slump lol as if he should be the only player in baseball player to never have a slump
I am stating facts about his 24 ABs out of 87..
Facts. Plain and simple.
Absolut wrote: ↑31 May 2025 19:15 pm
Dunno. I’m ok waiting a bit more than 400 at bats, and actually figuring out a position for Herrera before we throw stupid money at him.
Last 7 games
167/276/208/484...24 ABs of his 87 ABs this year
Let's not get to wild about 87 ABs. Be hopeful, but many a player cam get hot for 60 games
He’s a .299 .378 OBP .820 OPS in 122 career games so it’s not really 87 ABs it’s 400+ I wouldn’t get too wild over a 7 game slump
Those are across 4 years
Yes in 122 games but you’re judging him because of a 7 game slump lol as if he should be the only player in baseball player to never have a slump
I am stating facts about his 24 ABs out of 87..
Facts. Plain and simple.
