A good article on potential Cardinals extensions

[Shady]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/3- ... 3015&ei=13

[WLTFE]

Waiting to see what your son's take is on the article.

[Absolut]

Dunno. I’m ok waiting a bit more than 400 at bats, and actually figuring out a position for Herrera before we throw stupid money at him.

[mattmitchl44]

Dunno. I’m ok waiting a bit more than 400 at bats, and actually figuring out a position for Herrera before we throw stupid money at him.

The money should never be "stupid." If the team can't get a team friendly deal done with a player that essentially recognizes the uncertainty of projecting from a smaller sample size - you don't do the deal.

[Jatalk]

Spot on with Donovan. They blew it.

Herrera needs to find a position to play. His bat is very valuable but his value is increased if can move him to outfield in off season.

[scoutyjones2]

Dunno. I’m ok waiting a bit more than 400 at bats, and actually figuring out a position for Herrera before we throw stupid money at him.

Last 7 games

167/276/208/484...24 ABs of his 87 ABs this year

Let's not get to wild about 87 ABs. Be hopeful, but many a player cam get hot for 60 games

[Ike Hammett]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/3- ... 3015&ei=13

None of those guys have been all stars, no MVP votes, none have done big things in the postseason, carried the team to the postseason. This team was projected to win like 75 games this year. Some are playing well and it's fun to watch. Go win a division and a pennant, put up some awards on the far right of the baseball reference page etc. I really like Donovan but I also really liked Wong and Edman. I could like Sagasse and Wetherholt.

Unless they are coming with friendly team deals, keep that powder dry for all stars, MVP vote geters, CY candidates etc who can take the team to the WS.

[rockondlouie]

-Donovan & Noot should get the extensions this offseason that buys out their remaining ARB years plus first two years of FA.

-Winn I'd wait until the 2026 offseason.

-Libby & Hererra aren't even ARB eligible until 2027, free agents in 2030 no need for any talks yet.

-Pallante, no need.

-Walker & Gorman extension talks shouldn't even be under consideration unless they really turn things around.

No one else is in the extension conversation.

[2ninr]

-Donovan & Noot should get the extensions this offseason that buys out their remaining ARB years plus first two years of FA.

-Winn I'd wait until the 2026 offseason.

-Libby & Hererra aren't even ARB eligible until 2027, free agents in 2030 no need for any talks yet.

-Pallante, no need.

-Walker & Gorman extension talks shouldn't even be under consideration unless they really turn things around.

No one else is in the extension conversation.

Winn is the guy I would extend first. I think what you see is what you get. Noot and Donovan are similar. But Winn excels at a defensive position that is worth more.

[mattmitchl44]

It always depends on the price.

Six years/$12 million (a $2 million AAV) is different than six years/$100 million (a $16.6 million AAV).

Any remotely significant young player could be offered a long term extension, at the right price for the risk/reward balance that it represents for the team.

[sikeston bulldog2]

-Donovan & Noot should get the extensions this offseason that buys out their remaining ARB years plus first two years of FA.

-Winn I'd wait until the 2026 offseason.

-Libby & Hererra aren't even ARB eligible until 2027, free agents in 2030 no need for any talks yet.

-Pallante, no need.

-Walker & Gorman extension talks shouldn't even be under consideration unless they really turn things around.

No one else is in the extension conversation.

Winn is the guy I would extend first. I think what you see is what you get. Noot and Donovan are similar. But Winn excels at a defensive position that is worth more.

Till two days ago, Winn was errorless. And the one he now possesses was on a manageable throw. That’s remarkable. You lock that down now.

It just don’t get any better.

[mattmitchl44]

And, FWIW, if you are talking extensions with any of these young players, they should start the discussion based on the objective of signing them through their age 30 season, with perhaps another 1-2 yrs. of team options.

So, for example, for Winn you'd be looking at a 7 yr. deal (2026-2032) with maybe team options for 2033, 2034.

For Liberatore, you'd be looking at a 5 yr. deal (2026-2030) with maybe team options for 2031, 2032.

For Nootbaar, you'd be looking at a 3 yr. deal (2026-2028) with maybe another guaranteed year for 2029, or team options for 2029, 2030.

Etc.

[rockondlouie]

-Donovan & Noot should get the extensions this offseason that buys out their remaining ARB years plus first two years of FA.

-Winn I'd wait until the 2026 offseason.

-Libby & Hererra aren't even ARB eligible until 2027, free agents in 2030 no need for any talks yet.

-Pallante, no need.

-Walker & Gorman extension talks shouldn't even be under consideration unless they really turn things around.

No one else is in the extension conversation.

Winn is the guy I would extend first. I think what you see is what you get. Noot and Donovan are similar. But Winn excels at a defensive position that is worth more.

No, it's got to be Donovan & Noot who are ARB2 next season.

No need to rush Winn until after his third season when you'll have a better handle of just how good he's going to be (and I'm a big fan) then you can buyout his ARB1/27'. ARB2/28', ARB3/29' and as many free agent years as is deemed.

No need to rush it until then.

JMO

[mattmitchl44]

No need to rush Winn until after his third season...

The fundamental problem with waiting until they are ARB eligible is that the team loses a lot of its negotiating leverage.

Once Winn finishes 2026, if he's played very well through then, he's already guaranteed $4, $5, etc. million for 2027. He'll be guaranteed basically "set for life" money.

If you do the deal before that, maybe he signs for a deeper discount to be guaranteed "set for life" money before he plays through the 2026 season.

[rockondlouie]

No need to rush Winn until after his third season...

The fundamental problem with waiting until they are ARB eligible is that the team loses a lot of its negotiating leverage.

Once Winn finishes 2026, if he's played very well through then, he's already guaranteed $4, $5, etc. million for 2027. He'll be guaranteed basically "set for life" money.

If you do the deal before that, maybe he signs for a deeper discount to be guaranteed "set for life" money before he plays through the 2026 season.

We've wrestled w/this before matt

Your point is well taken, as is mine that rushing can lead to a poor outcome if the player stalls at his current level.

You loved using the young Braves extensions:

-Acuna has had a major injury costing him from May, 2024 till May, 2025 and may never steal bases like he did before

-Albies is struggling horrible 2024/2025: .245 .304 .385 .689

-Riley 2024/2025: 263 .327 .457 .783 may be the poster child for NOT doing it too early, a 10-year, $212 million contract extension that looks horrible overpriced now

-Harris, Jr has flopped 2024/2025: .255 .292 .394 .686 and has an overpriced 8 year, $72,000,000 contract

-Strider 2024/2025 5.48 ERA in only 5 starts after signing his six-year, $75 million contract

HORRIBLE LOOKING MOVES NOW by the BRAVES!

And NO PLAYER signs for a "deep discount" any more matt, their agents know the market and every player seems to want every single penny they can get.

[mattmitchl44]

No need to rush Winn until after his third season...

The fundamental problem with waiting until they are ARB eligible is that the team loses a lot of its negotiating leverage.

Once Winn finishes 2026, if he's played very well through then, he's already guaranteed $4, $5, etc. million for 2027. He'll be guaranteed basically "set for life" money.

If you do the deal before that, maybe he signs for a deeper discount to be guaranteed "set for life" money before he plays through the 2026 season.

We've wrestled w/this before matt

Your point is well taken, as is mine that rushing can lead to a poor outcome if the player stalls at his current level.

You loved using the young Braves extensions:

-Acuna has had a major injury costing him from May, 2024 till May, 2025 and may never steal bases like he did before

-Albies is struggling horrible 2024/2025: .245 .304 .385 .689

-Riley 2024/2025: 263 .327 .457 .783 may be the poster child for NOT doing it too early, a 10-year, $212 million contract extension that looks horrible overpriced now

-Harris, Jr has flopped 2024/2025: .255 .292 .394 .686 and has an overpriced 8 year, $72,000,000 contract

-Strider 2024/2025 5.48 ERA in only 5 starts after signing his six-year, $75 million contract

HORRIBLE LOOKING MOVES NOW by the BRAVES!

And NO PLAYER signs for a "deep discount" any more matt, their agents know the market and every player seems to want every single penny they can get.

And I still love the Braves' deals.

Albies was signed for just $35 million for 2019-2025. He's already produced 15.6 fWAR, to date, over that period. That's a HR for the Braves no matter what he does this season. Where would they be with Albies right now had they waited until after his 4.2 fWAR 2019 season or his 3.8 fWAR 2021 season to give him a much larger extension to get him to sign long term?

Acuna was signed for $100 million for 2019-2026. He's already produced 24.5 fWAR, to date, over that period. That's HR for the Braves - and he's got a year and a half to go (plus TWO team option years). Where would they be with Acuna had they waited until after his 9.1 fWAR season in 2023 to give him a $300+ million deal?

Harris was $72 million over 2023-2030. He's produced 6.1 fWAR over his first 2 1/3 seasons of that deal. Even if he's just a 1.5-2.0 fWAR per year player (basically like his 2024 season) going forward, that's also a win for the Braves.

With Riley they actually made the mistake - like you propose with Winn - of waiting until they had to give him a more expensive deal ($212 million over 2023-2032) instead of likely getting a significantly cheaper deal done after his 1st breakout season in 2021.

And we'll have to see how Strider comes back from injury. If he's healthy even for 2026-2028, that deal will also be good for them.