Is Now The Time For The Blues To Take A Big Swing?

[skilles]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

Same for me, but as you suggest, for an established, younger player. Makes no sense to trade for a guy in his 30’s at this point. We have need at center and right D….. probably like 90% of the teams in the league!

I think it makes all the sense in the world to trade for a player in his 30's just like it did for Fowler. Outside of acquiring a young stud I actually think it makes the most sense.

My preference would be a 30's center that is very good but comes cheap in a trade because maybe he is a little overpaid for a couple years.

Like who? As I stated in my post, the cap going up makes contracts that were "overpaid" look much more reasonable. What really good centers are there that are in their 30s? Which ones are overpaid and the team is willing to move on from them?

Is ROR still very good? I'm not sure. What about Stamkos? Is he even a center? You gonna make a run at Crosby? He won't be cheap. Duchene, Granlund, and Taveras will be FAs (as I said it doesn't have to be a trade). Do the Rangers pull a 180 and trade J.T. Miller?

who Skilles is describing is Taveras or ROR. not sure JT will leave TOR, and I'm guessing he'd want at least Schenn money. ROR has a more affordable contract, but not sure Nashville would trade him. from what I watched of ROR this last season, he still looked fine to me. besides, he didn't have a lot of foot speed to lose lol

Is ROR going to bump Schenn down and center Kyrou and Holloway? Do you put those two with Thomas and have ROR (assuming he's the get, I'd prefer the 2025 equivalent of the 2018 ROR trade) center Buch and Snuggy and Schenn center Bolduc and Neighbors/Dvo?

Well the idea is based in realism more than idealism. I mean sure there are lots of things I'd like in a vacuum but I think with the d aging and our young 2c in the system we need to get creative buying a couple years of 2c and expect to spend more significant assets on d over the next few years.

We don't need a long term young top 6 center, we just need to bridge the gap but we do need long term young d

[LGB73]

We're in an interesting spot. Our D and goalie are older with not a lot of D prospects looking to hit the team soon and take up top 4 minutes. Our forwards on the other hand are young with more prospects starting to push for spots. So we have a backend ready for contention and a forward group that is an unknown. Not sure if it is swing for the fences time or not.

2C should have been addressed last season(Monahan was my preferred) when Dvorsky was still probably 3 years away from taking that spot. Instead we gave Buch too much money for a winger to try to play C. Now there doesn't look like there is a lot out there in free agency to sign so prices will be high for what is there. A trade would be nice but you're paying++ for someone who is a proven 2C.

RD is a real issue. At least at 2C we have someone in the organization that is looking to develop into that spot in a couple years. We don't appear to have anyone that can replace Faulk or Parayko in the next 3-4 years in the pipeline.

If we could move Faulk and add someone in mid-late 20's that would probably be the ideal move to make. Hope Dvorsky makes enough strides to either drop him in at 2C moving Schenn down to where he needs to be or reverse that and hope Schenn can handle it for one more year while giving Dvorsky 3C for a year. It's a risk that should have been mitigated last year.

[STL fan in MN]

I don't really think so, I think you do your best to fill a center spot without giving up top assets and keep drafting.

My theory forever has been that you never sell out futures for win now.

The Blues are in a tricky spot as they are coming out of the "re-whatever" and start building or shaping a contending roster, and doing so ahead of schedule. If this year didn't go as well as it did I think it would be very easy to hold firm and stay the course, but if you do that then you might squander a few really good chances to make a deep playoff run because some key pieces are going to need to be replaced (at least in top roles) in a few years time. But pushing more chips in now (for trades at least) makes it harder to fill those holes in two, three, or four years.

Key players age to start next season:
Thomas - 26
Parayko - 32 (5 years remaining)
Binnington - 32 (2 years remaining)
Fowler - 33 (1 year remaining)
Kyrou - 27
Holloway - 24
Broberg - 24
Buch - 30
Schenn - 34 (3 years remaining)
Faulk - 34 (2 years remaining)
Neighbors - 24
Bolduc - 22


That's a decent mix of age ranges overall, but look towards the top of the list. Thomas is going into his age 26 season, assuming players peak in their late 20s and start to decline around age 30 then our best player has a 5 year window. Parayko, Binnington, and Fowler are all early in their decline phases/years but those positions might age a bit better than forwards. That combined with contract situations (hopefully Fowler can be extended a few years) means you probably have about a two, maybe three, year window where your #1 goalie and top defensive pair can be expected to keep performing close to their current levels. I think this is the real argument for pushing some chips in to really upgrade the roster for the next few seasons (within reason, could come via FA, not necessarily trading futures). Sure in 3 years we hope Fowler is still here and he and Parayko are a solid second pairing, but we still need a top RHD to pair with Broberg by that time.

We have wingers that are in their prime (Kyrou, and I guess Buch), another that looks like he's just entering it (Holloway, and probably Neighbors) and a few others about to get there or still progressing (Bolduc, Snuggy).

Which brings me to the two oldest players listed, Schenn and Faulk are both going into their age 34 seasons, and right now they are the #2C and #2RHD, respectively. That's where you need to target upgrades (either replacing those players or pushing them down a line, or pairing), IMO, if you want to push this roster to the next level in the short term (or add an elite winger), unfortunately, those two positions are pretty tough to fill.

Again, our #2C, our starting goalie, and three of our top 4 defensemen are in their early to mid-30s and other than Parayko they are signed for 1-3 years (Fowler 1, Schenn 3, Binner and Faulk 2). Do you try to do something to increase your chances in the next 2-3 years while these players are here, or do you keep focusing on 3-5 years out (end of Thomas' and Kyrou's prime) knowing those players might be gone or in a diminished role at that time? There's no wrong answer, and I don't envy Army and Steen for having to figure that out (well actually it sounds like a fun "problem" to have as a job).

The rising cap makes this harder and easier at the same time. We could address this addition just using money, but there aren't (m)any #2C options available in FA, at least not this year, and every team has money so they don't have to shed big contracts even if they are "re-whatever-ing".

Forwards actually tend to peak around age 24, at least in terms of offensive production anyway. I’d argue that once you include two-way ability, the actual peak is around 26-27 (sacrificing a little offense for better two-way play). Obviously each player is their own unique person but that’s what the averages suggest. So in that sense, Thomas and Kyrou are already past or just about to exit their peaks. It’s quite possible we’ve already seen the best of them.

So with that in mind, I can absolutely see why Army would want to speed up the re-whatever. He needs to make this team a Cup contender quickly before Thomas’ decline really sets in. He’s got a relatively short window IMO. Then I’d say he likely has a 2nd window where the younger guys will be the main core and Thomas might be more of the supporting 2C vet by then.

So yeah, the time is now to make a ROR type trade if Army can find one IMO.

Thanks for that information. I assumed aging curves were pretty general and that forwards would peak earlier than defensemen. So as you say, Kyrou is at the tail end of his peak. Thomas is at his peak and maybe has two years of top production (two-way) remaining, while Neighbors and Holloway are expected to peak next year. So our top center, top two wingers (plus Neighbors), our starting goalie, and three of our top four defensemen are all at a point where the best we'll probably get out of them will be in the next 2 (maybe 3) years.

Exactly, I think there are two windows. We are right in the middle of the current window, which is probably pretty short. Then the next window is Bolduc, Snuggy, Dvo, and our top prospects with our current core (Thomas, Broberg, Holloway, Kyrou, and Parayko still around) being the supporting players in 4-5 years. I think the current window needs a #2C (or other elite forward), and ideally an upgrade at #2RHD if they want to make an extended playoff run or two.

Yep, agreed. I see it pretty much exactly the same way.

I’ll note that d-men and goalies tend to peak later than forwards - 27-28ish.

Also, go look back on the Cup winning team the last number of decades and you’ll find zero teams with a 1C in their 30s. We need to strike while Thomas is in that range…or otherwise we’re most likely looking at that window closing and hoping Dvorsky or someone else can be a Cup caliber 1C as they get into their mid to later 20s.

[STL fan in MN]

I’d say the Blues are currently somewhat positioned similarly to what they were the summer of 2018 when they traded for ROR and signed Bozak. They absolutely should make that sort of move again if they can. But finding that trade partner will be the hard part. And what if the player needs to waive his NTC to come here? Or he’s a RFA and due a new contract? Would he even want to come here and commit to STL for X number of years? That’s the unknown in the situation. But yes, Army should be pursuing such a deal and we have the assets available to pull it off if the right deal comes along and Army feels it’s time to pull the trigger.

You asked about players waiving their NTC to come to St. Louis. From what I’ve observed, STL is looked upon pretty favorably by many NHL players, especially those from Canada. I don’t know if European players feel the same way. Seems like a lot of the Russians gravitate to the East Coast and Florida teams.

I see cities/franchises in terms of desirable destinations in terms of tiers.

At the top you have the teams in tax advantage states, Original 6 teams and teams in the biggest cities. But these teams can fall into lower tiers if they become dumpster fires or are run poorly. But on average, they have a huge advantage.

The next tier are good teams that are run well.

Then there’s well run teams that are just ok.

Then well run teams that are bad/rebuilding.

Last tier are the dumpster fires/poorly ran teams.

Canadian teams generally fall somewhere in-between Tier 2 and 3. They have a big tax disadvantage but are also usually pretty big draws. Hard to get Americans to want to go/stay there a lot of the times.

I’d say the Blues likely just moved themselves from Tier 3 to Tier 2. But they’re borderline. They’re well run, spend to the Cap and are emerging. But STL as a city isn’t a great draw. I think it’s an underrated city, especially if you have money like pro athletes obviously do, but it’s still an obstacle Army has to work around.

[TheJackBurton]

We're in an interesting spot. Our D and goalie are older with not a lot of D prospects looking to hit the team soon and take up top 4 minutes. Our forwards on the other hand are young with more prospects starting to push for spots. So we have a backend ready for contention and a forward group that is an unknown. Not sure if it is swing for the fences time or not.

2C should have been addressed last season(Monahan was my preferred) when Dvorsky was still probably 3 years away from taking that spot. Instead we gave Buch too much money for a winger to try to play C. Now there doesn't look like there is a lot out there in free agency to sign so prices will be high for what is there. A trade would be nice but you're paying++ for someone who is a proven 2C.

RD is a real issue. At least at 2C we have someone in the organization that is looking to develop into that spot in a couple years. We don't appear to have anyone that can replace Faulk or Parayko in the next 3-4 years in the pipeline.

If we could move Faulk and add someone in mid-late 20's that would probably be the ideal move to make. Hope Dvorsky makes enough strides to either drop him in at 2C moving Schenn down to where he needs to be or reverse that and hope Schenn can handle it for one more year while giving Dvorsky 3C for a year. It's a risk that should have been mitigated last year.

I don't think Monahan was ever really in play. He wanted to go back to be on a line with Gaudreau.

[a smell of green grass]

I guess if the right young impact player came along....but teams don't give up their sure-fires very often.

However, I'd save the big swing for when we are a more legitimate contender, and we know what our 1 missing piece is. In that situation too, when you trade away your Round 1, you have confidence that it will be a late Round 1, not TOP 5.

[TheJackBurton]

I’d say the Blues are currently somewhat positioned similarly to what they were the summer of 2018 when they traded for ROR and signed Bozak. They absolutely should make that sort of move again if they can. But finding that trade partner will be the hard part. And what if the player needs to waive his NTC to come here? Or he’s a RFA and due a new contract? Would he even want to come here and commit to STL for X number of years? That’s the unknown in the situation. But yes, Army should be pursuing such a deal and we have the assets available to pull it off if the right deal comes along and Army feels it’s time to pull the trigger.

You asked about players waiving their NTC to come to St. Louis. From what I’ve observed, STL is looked upon pretty favorably by many NHL players, especially those from Canada. I don’t know if European players feel the same way. Seems like a lot of the Russians gravitate to the East Coast and Florida teams.

I see cities/franchises in terms of desirable destinations in terms of tiers.

At the top you have the teams in tax advantage states, Original 6 teams and teams in the biggest cities. But these teams can fall into lower tiers if they become dumpster fires or are run poorly. But on average, they have a huge advantage.

The next tier are good teams that are run well.

Then there’s well run teams that are just ok.

Then well run teams that are bad/rebuilding.

Last tier are the dumpster fires/poorly ran teams.

Canadian teams generally fall somewhere in-between Tier 2 and 3. They have a big tax disadvantage but are also usually pretty big draws. Hard to get Americans to want to go/stay there a lot of the times.

I’d say the Blues likely just moved themselves from Tier 3 to Tier 2. But they’re borderline. They’re well run, spend to the Cap and are emerging. But STL as a city isn’t a great draw. I think it’s an underrated city, especially if you have money like pro athletes obviously do, but it’s still an obstacle Army has to work around.

IT could be a hard sell, but I think where that comes into play is with the alumni and a player like Fowler.

He was living in Anaheim, although California is a high tax state, the city of Anaheim is beautiful and a great place to live.

Gets traded here and instantly falls in love and I think has already moved his family here and wants to extend.

If I'm a player I listen to him way more than I listen to a news report that is meant to scare.

[STL fan in MN]

I’d say the Blues are currently somewhat positioned similarly to what they were the summer of 2018 when they traded for ROR and signed Bozak. They absolutely should make that sort of move again if they can. But finding that trade partner will be the hard part. And what if the player needs to waive his NTC to come here? Or he’s a RFA and due a new contract? Would he even want to come here and commit to STL for X number of years? That’s the unknown in the situation. But yes, Army should be pursuing such a deal and we have the assets available to pull it off if the right deal comes along and Army feels it’s time to pull the trigger.

You asked about players waiving their NTC to come to St. Louis. From what I’ve observed, STL is looked upon pretty favorably by many NHL players, especially those from Canada. I don’t know if European players feel the same way. Seems like a lot of the Russians gravitate to the East Coast and Florida teams.

I see cities/franchises in terms of desirable destinations in terms of tiers.

At the top you have the teams in tax advantage states, Original 6 teams and teams in the biggest cities. But these teams can fall into lower tiers if they become dumpster fires or are run poorly. But on average, they have a huge advantage.

The next tier are good teams that are run well.

Then there’s well run teams that are just ok.

Then well run teams that are bad/rebuilding.

Last tier are the dumpster fires/poorly ran teams.

Canadian teams generally fall somewhere in-between Tier 2 and 3. They have a big tax disadvantage but are also usually pretty big draws. Hard to get Americans to want to go/stay there a lot of the times.

I’d say the Blues likely just moved themselves from Tier 3 to Tier 2. But they’re borderline. They’re well run, spend to the Cap and are emerging. But STL as a city isn’t a great draw. I think it’s an underrated city, especially if you have money like pro athletes obviously do, but it’s still an obstacle Army has to work around.

IT could be a hard sell, but I think where that comes into play is with the alumni and a player like Fowler.

He was living in Anaheim, although California is a high tax state, the city of Anaheim is beautiful and a great place to live.

Gets traded here and instantly falls in love and I think has already moved his family here and wants to extend.

If I'm a player I listen to him way more than I listen to a news report that is meant to scare.

Yeah, both Army and Ott have described St. Louis as a touch city to sell initially but once they get the player here then they tend to not want to leave. So it’s that initial sell that’s the hump they have to get over. But with the Blues emerging as a solid playoff team and looking to be on the rise, they should become a better destination. So UFAs more willing to sign here and STL on fewer partial-NTC lists. And for players with full-NTCs, more willingness to waive it to come here.

[skilles]

I don't really think so, I think you do your best to fill a center spot without giving up top assets and keep drafting.

My theory forever has been that you never sell out futures for win now.

The Blues are in a tricky spot as they are coming out of the "re-whatever" and start building or shaping a contending roster, and doing so ahead of schedule. If this year didn't go as well as it did I think it would be very easy to hold firm and stay the course, but if you do that then you might squander a few really good chances to make a deep playoff run because some key pieces are going to need to be replaced (at least in top roles) in a few years time. But pushing more chips in now (for trades at least) makes it harder to fill those holes in two, three, or four years.

Key players age to start next season:
Thomas - 26
Parayko - 32 (5 years remaining)
Binnington - 32 (2 years remaining)
Fowler - 33 (1 year remaining)
Kyrou - 27
Holloway - 24
Broberg - 24
Buch - 30
Schenn - 34 (3 years remaining)
Faulk - 34 (2 years remaining)
Neighbors - 24
Bolduc - 22


That's a decent mix of age ranges overall, but look towards the top of the list. Thomas is going into his age 26 season, assuming players peak in their late 20s and start to decline around age 30 then our best player has a 5 year window. Parayko, Binnington, and Fowler are all early in their decline phases/years but those positions might age a bit better than forwards. That combined with contract situations (hopefully Fowler can be extended a few years) means you probably have about a two, maybe three, year window where your #1 goalie and top defensive pair can be expected to keep performing close to their current levels. I think this is the real argument for pushing some chips in to really upgrade the roster for the next few seasons (within reason, could come via FA, not necessarily trading futures). Sure in 3 years we hope Fowler is still here and he and Parayko are a solid second pairing, but we still need a top RHD to pair with Broberg by that time.

We have wingers that are in their prime (Kyrou, and I guess Buch), another that looks like he's just entering it (Holloway, and probably Neighbors) and a few others about to get there or still progressing (Bolduc, Snuggy).

Which brings me to the two oldest players listed, Schenn and Faulk are both going into their age 34 seasons, and right now they are the #2C and #2RHD, respectively. That's where you need to target upgrades (either replacing those players or pushing them down a line, or pairing), IMO, if you want to push this roster to the next level in the short term (or add an elite winger), unfortunately, those two positions are pretty tough to fill.

Again, our #2C, our starting goalie, and three of our top 4 defensemen are in their early to mid-30s and other than Parayko they are signed for 1-3 years (Fowler 1, Schenn 3, Binner and Faulk 2). Do you try to do something to increase your chances in the next 2-3 years while these players are here, or do you keep focusing on 3-5 years out (end of Thomas' and Kyrou's prime) knowing those players might be gone or in a diminished role at that time? There's no wrong answer, and I don't envy Army and Steen for having to figure that out (well actually it sounds like a fun "problem" to have as a job).

The rising cap makes this harder and easier at the same time. We could address this addition just using money, but there aren't (m)any #2C options available in FA, at least not this year, and every team has money so they don't have to shed big contracts even if they are "re-whatever-ing".

Forwards actually tend to peak around age 24, at least in terms of offensive production anyway. I’d argue that once you include two-way ability, the actual peak is around 26-27 (sacrificing a little offense for better two-way play). Obviously each player is their own unique person but that’s what the averages suggest. So in that sense, Thomas and Kyrou are already past or just about to exit their peaks. It’s quite possible we’ve already seen the best of them.

So with that in mind, I can absolutely see why Army would want to speed up the re-whatever. He needs to make this team a Cup contender quickly before Thomas’ decline really sets in. He’s got a relatively short window IMO. Then I’d say he likely has a 2nd window where the younger guys will be the main core and Thomas might be more of the supporting 2C vet by then.

So yeah, the time is now to make a ROR type trade if Army can find one IMO.

Thanks for that information. I assumed aging curves were pretty general and that forwards would peak earlier than defensemen. So as you say, Kyrou is at the tail end of his peak. Thomas is at his peak and maybe has two years of top production (two-way) remaining, while Neighbors and Holloway are expected to peak next year. So our top center, top two wingers (plus Neighbors), our starting goalie, and three of our top four defensemen are all at a point where the best we'll probably get out of them will be in the next 2 (maybe 3) years.

Exactly, I think there are two windows. We are right in the middle of the current window, which is probably pretty short. Then the next window is Bolduc, Snuggy, Dvo, and our top prospects with our current core (Thomas, Broberg, Holloway, Kyrou, and Parayko still around) being the supporting players in 4-5 years. I think the current window needs a #2C (or other elite forward), and ideally an upgrade at #2RHD if they want to make an extended playoff run or two.

Yep, agreed. I see it pretty much exactly the same way.

I’ll note that d-men and goalies tend to peak later than forwards - 27-28ish.

Also, go look back on the Cup winning team the last number of decades and you’ll find zero teams with a 1C in their 30s. We need to strike while Thomas is in that range…or otherwise we’re most likely looking at that window closing and hoping Dvorsky or someone else can be a Cup caliber 1C as they get into their mid to later 20s.

I'd say that has a lot to do with the free agency rules.

Anyway at any rate we need a short term 2c right now and long term top 4 d over the next couple years.

Of course there are some other creative paths like Trading Dvorsky for a prime age center right now.

Its crazy how fast we went from what most thought was dire straights to what seems to be one right player away from being a very serious contender.

Army has made some moves I really thought were stupid but I gotta say he has killed this recent retooling situation

The trick now is to get that 2c now without handcuffing our ability to retool the d over the next few years.

[skilles]

I’d say the Blues are currently somewhat positioned similarly to what they were the summer of 2018 when they traded for ROR and signed Bozak. They absolutely should make that sort of move again if they can. But finding that trade partner will be the hard part. And what if the player needs to waive his NTC to come here? Or he’s a RFA and due a new contract? Would he even want to come here and commit to STL for X number of years? That’s the unknown in the situation. But yes, Army should be pursuing such a deal and we have the assets available to pull it off if the right deal comes along and Army feels it’s time to pull the trigger.

You asked about players waiving their NTC to come to St. Louis. From what I’ve observed, STL is looked upon pretty favorably by many NHL players, especially those from Canada. I don’t know if European players feel the same way. Seems like a lot of the Russians gravitate to the East Coast and Florida teams.

I see cities/franchises in terms of desirable destinations in terms of tiers.

At the top you have the teams in tax advantage states, Original 6 teams and teams in the biggest cities. But these teams can fall into lower tiers if they become dumpster fires or are run poorly. But on average, they have a huge advantage.

The next tier are good teams that are run well.

Then there’s well run teams that are just ok.

Then well run teams that are bad/rebuilding.

Last tier are the dumpster fires/poorly ran teams.

Canadian teams generally fall somewhere in-between Tier 2 and 3. They have a big tax disadvantage but are also usually pretty big draws. Hard to get Americans to want to go/stay there a lot of the times.

I’d say the Blues likely just moved themselves from Tier 3 to Tier 2. But they’re borderline. They’re well run, spend to the Cap and are emerging. But STL as a city isn’t a great draw. I think it’s an underrated city, especially if you have money like pro athletes obviously do, but it’s still an obstacle Army has to work around.

IT could be a hard sell, but I think where that comes into play is with the alumni and a player like Fowler.

He was living in Anaheim, although California is a high tax state, the city of Anaheim is beautiful and a great place to live.

Gets traded here and instantly falls in love and I think has already moved his family here and wants to extend.

If I'm a player I listen to him way more than I listen to a news report that is meant to scare.

lol I just can't relate, you could not pay me to live in Anaheim or STL really but working in STL would give me lots more options to live outside the crazy city life.

I think the age of the player probably has a lot to do with it, If I'm a 24 year old single star athlete then sure drop me right in downtown California but If I'm late 20s +, married with a family, 1000 acres in right outside STL sounds pretty great.

[callitwhatyouwant]

I'm busy right now so can't do the research, but the Blues should look at some of the floundering franchises and see if they have a 23-27 year old star style player. IF they have one they should take a swing. in that scenario trading a stenberg/dean/ellis 1st rounder and make a huge hockey trade is worth it. If the player is over 28 or 29, no dice.

[dhsux]

I’d say the Blues are currently somewhat positioned similarly to what they were the summer of 2018 when they traded for ROR and signed Bozak. They absolutely should make that sort of move again if they can. But finding that trade partner will be the hard part. And what if the player needs to waive his NTC to come here? Or he’s a RFA and due a new contract? Would he even want to come here and commit to STL for X number of years? That’s the unknown in the situation. But yes, Army should be pursuing such a deal and we have the assets available to pull it off if the right deal comes along and Army feels it’s time to pull the trigger.

You asked about players waiving their NTC to come to St. Louis. From what I’ve observed, STL is looked upon pretty favorably by many NHL players, especially those from Canada. I don’t know if European players feel the same way. Seems like a lot of the Russians gravitate to the East Coast and Florida teams.

I see cities/franchises in terms of desirable destinations in terms of tiers.

At the top you have the teams in tax advantage states, Original 6 teams and teams in the biggest cities. But these teams can fall into lower tiers if they become dumpster fires or are run poorly. But on average, they have a huge advantage.

The next tier are good teams that are run well.

Then there’s well run teams that are just ok.

Then well run teams that are bad/rebuilding.

Last tier are the dumpster fires/poorly ran teams.

Canadian teams generally fall somewhere in-between Tier 2 and 3. They have a big tax disadvantage but are also usually pretty big draws. Hard to get Americans to want to go/stay there a lot of the times.

I’d say the Blues likely just moved themselves from Tier 3 to Tier 2. But they’re borderline. They’re well run, spend to the Cap and are emerging. But STL as a city isn’t a great draw. I think it’s an underrated city, especially if you have money like pro athletes obviously do, but it’s still an obstacle Army has to work around.

Not disputing any of that as a general stereo type which likely holds pretty true...up to a point.

But players talking and telling other players where a good place to play will over ride a lot of issues.

The alum situation in STL....even though aging.....tells a different story than what some might assume.

[STL fan in MN]

I don't really think so, I think you do your best to fill a center spot without giving up top assets and keep drafting.

My theory forever has been that you never sell out futures for win now.

The Blues are in a tricky spot as they are coming out of the "re-whatever" and start building or shaping a contending roster, and doing so ahead of schedule. If this year didn't go as well as it did I think it would be very easy to hold firm and stay the course, but if you do that then you might squander a few really good chances to make a deep playoff run because some key pieces are going to need to be replaced (at least in top roles) in a few years time. But pushing more chips in now (for trades at least) makes it harder to fill those holes in two, three, or four years.

Key players age to start next season:
Thomas - 26
Parayko - 32 (5 years remaining)
Binnington - 32 (2 years remaining)
Fowler - 33 (1 year remaining)
Kyrou - 27
Holloway - 24
Broberg - 24
Buch - 30
Schenn - 34 (3 years remaining)
Faulk - 34 (2 years remaining)
Neighbors - 24
Bolduc - 22


That's a decent mix of age ranges overall, but look towards the top of the list. Thomas is going into his age 26 season, assuming players peak in their late 20s and start to decline around age 30 then our best player has a 5 year window. Parayko, Binnington, and Fowler are all early in their decline phases/years but those positions might age a bit better than forwards. That combined with contract situations (hopefully Fowler can be extended a few years) means you probably have about a two, maybe three, year window where your #1 goalie and top defensive pair can be expected to keep performing close to their current levels. I think this is the real argument for pushing some chips in to really upgrade the roster for the next few seasons (within reason, could come via FA, not necessarily trading futures). Sure in 3 years we hope Fowler is still here and he and Parayko are a solid second pairing, but we still need a top RHD to pair with Broberg by that time.

We have wingers that are in their prime (Kyrou, and I guess Buch), another that looks like he's just entering it (Holloway, and probably Neighbors) and a few others about to get there or still progressing (Bolduc, Snuggy).

Which brings me to the two oldest players listed, Schenn and Faulk are both going into their age 34 seasons, and right now they are the #2C and #2RHD, respectively. That's where you need to target upgrades (either replacing those players or pushing them down a line, or pairing), IMO, if you want to push this roster to the next level in the short term (or add an elite winger), unfortunately, those two positions are pretty tough to fill.

Again, our #2C, our starting goalie, and three of our top 4 defensemen are in their early to mid-30s and other than Parayko they are signed for 1-3 years (Fowler 1, Schenn 3, Binner and Faulk 2). Do you try to do something to increase your chances in the next 2-3 years while these players are here, or do you keep focusing on 3-5 years out (end of Thomas' and Kyrou's prime) knowing those players might be gone or in a diminished role at that time? There's no wrong answer, and I don't envy Army and Steen for having to figure that out (well actually it sounds like a fun "problem" to have as a job).

The rising cap makes this harder and easier at the same time. We could address this addition just using money, but there aren't (m)any #2C options available in FA, at least not this year, and every team has money so they don't have to shed big contracts even if they are "re-whatever-ing".

Forwards actually tend to peak around age 24, at least in terms of offensive production anyway. I’d argue that once you include two-way ability, the actual peak is around 26-27 (sacrificing a little offense for better two-way play). Obviously each player is their own unique person but that’s what the averages suggest. So in that sense, Thomas and Kyrou are already past or just about to exit their peaks. It’s quite possible we’ve already seen the best of them.

So with that in mind, I can absolutely see why Army would want to speed up the re-whatever. He needs to make this team a Cup contender quickly before Thomas’ decline really sets in. He’s got a relatively short window IMO. Then I’d say he likely has a 2nd window where the younger guys will be the main core and Thomas might be more of the supporting 2C vet by then.

So yeah, the time is now to make a ROR type trade if Army can find one IMO.

Thanks for that information. I assumed aging curves were pretty general and that forwards would peak earlier than defensemen. So as you say, Kyrou is at the tail end of his peak. Thomas is at his peak and maybe has two years of top production (two-way) remaining, while Neighbors and Holloway are expected to peak next year. So our top center, top two wingers (plus Neighbors), our starting goalie, and three of our top four defensemen are all at a point where the best we'll probably get out of them will be in the next 2 (maybe 3) years.

Exactly, I think there are two windows. We are right in the middle of the current window, which is probably pretty short. Then the next window is Bolduc, Snuggy, Dvo, and our top prospects with our current core (Thomas, Broberg, Holloway, Kyrou, and Parayko still around) being the supporting players in 4-5 years. I think the current window needs a #2C (or other elite forward), and ideally an upgrade at #2RHD if they want to make an extended playoff run or two.

Yep, agreed. I see it pretty much exactly the same way.

I’ll note that d-men and goalies tend to peak later than forwards - 27-28ish.

Also, go look back on the Cup winning team the last number of decades and you’ll find zero teams with a 1C in their 30s. We need to strike while Thomas is in that range…or otherwise we’re most likely looking at that window closing and hoping Dvorsky or someone else can be a Cup caliber 1C as they get into their mid to later 20s.

I'd say that has a lot to do with the free agency rules.

Anyway at any rate we need a short term 2c right now and long term top 4 d over the next couple years.

Of course there are some other creative paths like Trading Dvorsky for a prime age center right now.

Its crazy how fast we went from what most thought was dire straights to what seems to be one right player away from being a very serious contender.

Army has made some moves I really thought were stupid but I gotta say he has killed this recent retooling situation

The trick now is to get that 2c now without handcuffing our ability to retool the d over the next few years.

Yeah, the outlook has certainly changed quickly. But I think that also presents a cautionary tale to not get ahead of ourselves here. I see the Blues as more than 1 big piece away. They need at least a 2C but also an upgrade at D. Fowler changed the landscape big time there but with his age, he’s not a longterm solution IMO. We could really use an upgrade at RD. The 2022 version of Faulk would be great. The 2025 going into 2026 version? He’s just not that guy anymore unfortunately.

But that upgrade is probably secondary. We could probably get by with a top-4 of Fowler-Parayko, Broberg-Faulk but then we should really focus on getting a quality 3RD. I just don’t think Kessel is the guy and whether the 3LD is Leddy, Tucker or Suter (or combo), none are ideal on the right side. I keep going back to Dante Fabbro but he may end up commanding too much on the open market. I guess we’ll find out though soon enough.

[STL fan in MN]

I’d say the Blues are currently somewhat positioned similarly to what they were the summer of 2018 when they traded for ROR and signed Bozak. They absolutely should make that sort of move again if they can. But finding that trade partner will be the hard part. And what if the player needs to waive his NTC to come here? Or he’s a RFA and due a new contract? Would he even want to come here and commit to STL for X number of years? That’s the unknown in the situation. But yes, Army should be pursuing such a deal and we have the assets available to pull it off if the right deal comes along and Army feels it’s time to pull the trigger.

You asked about players waiving their NTC to come to St. Louis. From what I’ve observed, STL is looked upon pretty favorably by many NHL players, especially those from Canada. I don’t know if European players feel the same way. Seems like a lot of the Russians gravitate to the East Coast and Florida teams.

I see cities/franchises in terms of desirable destinations in terms of tiers.

At the top you have the teams in tax advantage states, Original 6 teams and teams in the biggest cities. But these teams can fall into lower tiers if they become dumpster fires or are run poorly. But on average, they have a huge advantage.

The next tier are good teams that are run well.

Then there’s well run teams that are just ok.

Then well run teams that are bad/rebuilding.

Last tier are the dumpster fires/poorly ran teams.

Canadian teams generally fall somewhere in-between Tier 2 and 3. They have a big tax disadvantage but are also usually pretty big draws. Hard to get Americans to want to go/stay there a lot of the times.

I’d say the Blues likely just moved themselves from Tier 3 to Tier 2. But they’re borderline. They’re well run, spend to the Cap and are emerging. But STL as a city isn’t a great draw. I think it’s an underrated city, especially if you have money like pro athletes obviously do, but it’s still an obstacle Army has to work around.

Not disputing any of that as a general stereo type which likely holds pretty true...up to a point.

But players talking and telling other players where a good place to play will over ride a lot of issues.

The alum situation in STL....even though aging.....tells a different story than what some might assume.

I’m simply relaying what Army and Otter have said. And those guys obviously are two of the guys that would be talking to any potential UFA trying to get them here. So there must be some truth to there being a general hesitation to moving to St. Louis.

But generally, money can fix a lot of issues. It’s not like these guys have to spend their time in the rougher areas of town or send their kids to a subpar school. These guys have the money to have pretty much whatever option they want…and that applies to pretty much any NHL city.

[TheJackBurton]

Thanks for that information. I assumed aging curves were pretty general and that forwards would peak earlier than defensemen. So as you say, Kyrou is at the tail end of his peak. Thomas is at his peak and maybe has two years of top production (two-way) remaining, while Neighbors and Holloway are expected to peak next year. So our top center, top two wingers (plus Neighbors), our starting goalie, and three of our top four defensemen are all at a point where the best we'll probably get out of them will be in the next 2 (maybe 3) years.

Exactly, I think there are two windows. We are right in the middle of the current window, which is probably pretty short. Then the next window is Bolduc, Snuggy, Dvo, and our top prospects with our current core (Thomas, Broberg, Holloway, Kyrou, and Parayko still around) being the supporting players in 4-5 years. I think the current window needs a #2C (or other elite forward), and ideally an upgrade at #2RHD if they want to make an extended playoff run or two.

Yep, agreed. I see it pretty much exactly the same way.

I’ll note that d-men and goalies tend to peak later than forwards - 27-28ish.

Also, go look back on the Cup winning team the last number of decades and you’ll find zero teams with a 1C in their 30s. We need to strike while Thomas is in that range…or otherwise we’re most likely looking at that window closing and hoping Dvorsky or someone else can be a Cup caliber 1C as they get into their mid to later 20s.

I'd say that has a lot to do with the free agency rules.

Anyway at any rate we need a short term 2c right now and long term top 4 d over the next couple years.

Of course there are some other creative paths like Trading Dvorsky for a prime age center right now.

Its crazy how fast we went from what most thought was dire straights to what seems to be one right player away from being a very serious contender.

Army has made some moves I really thought were stupid but I gotta say he has killed this recent retooling situation

The trick now is to get that 2c now without handcuffing our ability to retool the d over the next few years.

Yeah, the outlook has certainly changed quickly. But I think that also presents a cautionary tale to not get ahead of ourselves here. I see the Blues as more than 1 big piece away. They need at least a 2C but also an upgrade at D. Fowler changed the landscape big time there but with his age, he’s not a longterm solution IMO. We could really use an upgrade at RD. The 2022 version of Faulk would be great. The 2025 going into 2026 version? He’s just not that guy anymore unfortunately.

But that upgrade is probably secondary. We could probably get by with a top-4 of Fowler-Parayko, Broberg-Faulk but then we should really focus on getting a quality 3RD. I just don’t think Kessel is the guy and whether the 3LD is Leddy, Tucker or Suter (or combo), none are ideal on the right side. I keep going back to Dante Fabbro but he may end up commanding too much on the open market. I guess we’ll find out though soon enough.

If I'm looking 3RD I'm looking at a team that (bleep) out last year and is ready for a full rebuild ala Boston, or UFA. I don't think age is as much of a concern in that position as money is.

[STL fan in MN]

Thanks for that information. I assumed aging curves were pretty general and that forwards would peak earlier than defensemen. So as you say, Kyrou is at the tail end of his peak. Thomas is at his peak and maybe has two years of top production (two-way) remaining, while Neighbors and Holloway are expected to peak next year. So our top center, top two wingers (plus Neighbors), our starting goalie, and three of our top four defensemen are all at a point where the best we'll probably get out of them will be in the next 2 (maybe 3) years.

Exactly, I think there are two windows. We are right in the middle of the current window, which is probably pretty short. Then the next window is Bolduc, Snuggy, Dvo, and our top prospects with our current core (Thomas, Broberg, Holloway, Kyrou, and Parayko still around) being the supporting players in 4-5 years. I think the current window needs a #2C (or other elite forward), and ideally an upgrade at #2RHD if they want to make an extended playoff run or two.

Yep, agreed. I see it pretty much exactly the same way.

I’ll note that d-men and goalies tend to peak later than forwards - 27-28ish.

Also, go look back on the Cup winning team the last number of decades and you’ll find zero teams with a 1C in their 30s. We need to strike while Thomas is in that range…or otherwise we’re most likely looking at that window closing and hoping Dvorsky or someone else can be a Cup caliber 1C as they get into their mid to later 20s.

I'd say that has a lot to do with the free agency rules.

Anyway at any rate we need a short term 2c right now and long term top 4 d over the next couple years.

Of course there are some other creative paths like Trading Dvorsky for a prime age center right now.

Its crazy how fast we went from what most thought was dire straights to what seems to be one right player away from being a very serious contender.

Army has made some moves I really thought were stupid but I gotta say he has killed this recent retooling situation

The trick now is to get that 2c now without handcuffing our ability to retool the d over the next few years.

Yeah, the outlook has certainly changed quickly. But I think that also presents a cautionary tale to not get ahead of ourselves here. I see the Blues as more than 1 big piece away. They need at least a 2C but also an upgrade at D. Fowler changed the landscape big time there but with his age, he’s not a longterm solution IMO. We could really use an upgrade at RD. The 2022 version of Faulk would be great. The 2025 going into 2026 version? He’s just not that guy anymore unfortunately.

But that upgrade is probably secondary. We could probably get by with a top-4 of Fowler-Parayko, Broberg-Faulk but then we should really focus on getting a quality 3RD. I just don’t think Kessel is the guy and whether the 3LD is Leddy, Tucker or Suter (or combo), none are ideal on the right side. I keep going back to Dante Fabbro but he may end up commanding too much on the open market. I guess we’ll find out though soon enough.

If I'm looking 3RD I'm looking at a team that (bleep) out last year and is ready for a full rebuild ala Boston, or UFA. I don't think age is as much of a concern in that position as money is.

So Jokiharju? He’s a pending UFA so yeah, he’s a possibility. Wouldn’t cost assets, just money.

And agree. Don’t care if the solution there is only short term or really care a ton about the age of that player.