Is Now The Time For The Blues To Take A Big Swing?

[TheJackBurton]

I'm still looking at Trevor Zegras. He has a year left at 5.75 and then RFA so the cost wouldn't be very high as far as prospects as he has seen a decline in play.

He's been dealing with injuries so that has slowed his production, but he has had 6-9-15 and 12-19-31 so not exactly superstar numbers. He is fast, highly skilled, and is absolutely a bounce back candidate with Kyrou and Holloway.

He hasn’t really played center in about 2 seasons though.

Plays soft and small, trending the wrong direction…he wouldn’t be my target tbh.

did they move him to wing?

[skilles]

I wonder if Tyler Seguin can still play center.

[STL fan in MN]

I don't really think so, I think you do your best to fill a center spot without giving up top assets and keep drafting.

My theory forever has been that you never sell out futures for win now.

The Blues are in a tricky spot as they are coming out of the "re-whatever" and start building or shaping a contending roster, and doing so ahead of schedule. If this year didn't go as well as it did I think it would be very easy to hold firm and stay the course, but if you do that then you might squander a few really good chances to make a deep playoff run because some key pieces are going to need to be replaced (at least in top roles) in a few years time. But pushing more chips in now (for trades at least) makes it harder to fill those holes in two, three, or four years.

Key players age to start next season:
Thomas - 26
Parayko - 32 (5 years remaining)
Binnington - 32 (2 years remaining)
Fowler - 33 (1 year remaining)
Kyrou - 27
Holloway - 24
Broberg - 24
Buch - 30
Schenn - 34 (3 years remaining)
Faulk - 34 (2 years remaining)
Neighbors - 24
Bolduc - 22


That's a decent mix of age ranges overall, but look towards the top of the list. Thomas is going into his age 26 season, assuming players peak in their late 20s and start to decline around age 30 then our best player has a 5 year window. Parayko, Binnington, and Fowler are all early in their decline phases/years but those positions might age a bit better than forwards. That combined with contract situations (hopefully Fowler can be extended a few years) means you probably have about a two, maybe three, year window where your #1 goalie and top defensive pair can be expected to keep performing close to their current levels. I think this is the real argument for pushing some chips in to really upgrade the roster for the next few seasons (within reason, could come via FA, not necessarily trading futures). Sure in 3 years we hope Fowler is still here and he and Parayko are a solid second pairing, but we still need a top RHD to pair with Broberg by that time.

We have wingers that are in their prime (Kyrou, and I guess Buch), another that looks like he's just entering it (Holloway, and probably Neighbors) and a few others about to get there or still progressing (Bolduc, Snuggy).

Which brings me to the two oldest players listed, Schenn and Faulk are both going into their age 34 seasons, and right now they are the #2C and #2RHD, respectively. That's where you need to target upgrades (either replacing those players or pushing them down a line, or pairing), IMO, if you want to push this roster to the next level in the short term (or add an elite winger), unfortunately, those two positions are pretty tough to fill.

Again, our #2C, our starting goalie, and three of our top 4 defensemen are in their early to mid-30s and other than Parayko they are signed for 1-3 years (Fowler 1, Schenn 3, Binner and Faulk 2). Do you try to do something to increase your chances in the next 2-3 years while these players are here, or do you keep focusing on 3-5 years out (end of Thomas' and Kyrou's prime) knowing those players might be gone or in a diminished role at that time? There's no wrong answer, and I don't envy Army and Steen for having to figure that out (well actually it sounds like a fun "problem" to have as a job).

The rising cap makes this harder and easier at the same time. We could address this addition just using money, but there aren't (m)any #2C options available in FA, at least not this year, and every team has money so they don't have to shed big contracts even if they are "re-whatever-ing".

Forwards actually tend to peak around age 24, at least in terms of offensive production anyway. I’d argue that once you include two-way ability, the actual peak is around 26-27 (sacrificing a little offense for better two-way play). Obviously each player is their own unique person but that’s what the averages suggest. So in that sense, Thomas and Kyrou are already past or just about to exit their peaks. It’s quite possible we’ve already seen the best of them.

So with that in mind, I can absolutely see why Army would want to speed up the re-whatever. He needs to make this team a Cup contender quickly before Thomas’ decline really sets in. He’s got a relatively short window IMO. Then I’d say he likely has a 2nd window where the younger guys will be the main core and Thomas might be more of the supporting 2C vet by then.

So yeah, the time is now to make a ROR type trade if Army can find one IMO.

[STL fan in MN]

I'm still looking at Trevor Zegras. He has a year left at 5.75 and then RFA so the cost wouldn't be very high as far as prospects as he has seen a decline in play.

He's been dealing with injuries so that has slowed his production, but he has had 6-9-15 and 12-19-31 so not exactly superstar numbers. He is fast, highly skilled, and is absolutely a bounce back candidate with Kyrou and Holloway.

He hasn’t really played center in about 2 seasons though.

Plays soft and small, trending the wrong direction…he wouldn’t be my target tbh.

did they move him to wing?

Yes. He bounces around. Played some C but more on the wing this season from what I saw. And when he did play C he was horrible on the draw. 37-38% the last 2 years.

[TheJackBurton]

I'm still looking at Trevor Zegras. He has a year left at 5.75 and then RFA so the cost wouldn't be very high as far as prospects as he has seen a decline in play.

He's been dealing with injuries so that has slowed his production, but he has had 6-9-15 and 12-19-31 so not exactly superstar numbers. He is fast, highly skilled, and is absolutely a bounce back candidate with Kyrou and Holloway.

He hasn’t really played center in about 2 seasons though.

Plays soft and small, trending the wrong direction…he wouldn’t be my target tbh.

did they move him to wing?

Yes. He bounces around. Played some C but more on the wing this season from what I saw. And when he did play C he was horrible on the draw. 37-38% the last 2 years.

Well get him with Ott.

I'm not saying it's a perfect solution by any means, but he will be available, very likely won't cost a lot in the way of a trade, he has proven he can score in this league, and like Fowler it may be a situation where the constant losing just brings a player down to that level.

There's just not a lot out there currently in the way of center, and I believe going into next year with the same centers is actually a step backwards as 3 of our centers will be mid 30's and losing foot speed.

[STL fan in MN]

I wonder if Tyler Seguin can still play center.

Maybe? Probably? Idk. He only played 20 games this year though. And why would Dallas want to dump him? They’re in win now mode. Only reason I’d see them even considering it is if they need to move salary to keep others. I don’t know their cap situation super well but I think they’re fine.

[STL fan in MN]

I'm still looking at Trevor Zegras. He has a year left at 5.75 and then RFA so the cost wouldn't be very high as far as prospects as he has seen a decline in play.

He's been dealing with injuries so that has slowed his production, but he has had 6-9-15 and 12-19-31 so not exactly superstar numbers. He is fast, highly skilled, and is absolutely a bounce back candidate with Kyrou and Holloway.

He hasn’t really played center in about 2 seasons though.

Plays soft and small, trending the wrong direction…he wouldn’t be my target tbh.

did they move him to wing?

Yes. He bounces around. Played some C but more on the wing this season from what I saw. And when he did play C he was horrible on the draw. 37-38% the last 2 years.

Well get him with Ott.

I'm not saying it's a perfect solution by any means, but he will be available, very likely won't cost a lot in the way of a trade, he has proven he can score in this league, and like Fowler it may be a situation where the constant losing just brings a player down to that level.

There's just not a lot out there currently in the way of center, and I believe going into next year with the same centers is actually a step backwards as 3 of our centers will be mid 30's and losing foot speed.

I would agree we absolutely need to bring in a fresh top-9 center but I just don’t see Zegras as being the guy. I’m sure our pro scouts have seen more of him than I have though so if they identify him as the guy and think he can bounce back like Fowler did then I won’t question it. Agree he’d bery likely be able to be had for cheap. But there’s a reason for that..

[skilles]

I wonder if Tyler Seguin can still play center.

Maybe? Probably? Idk. He only played 20 games this year though. And why would Dallas want to dump him? They’re in win now mode. Only reason I’d see them even considering it is if they need to move salary to keep others. I don’t know their cap situation super well but I think they’re fine.

I think for them his salary is probably a burden, I suspect they would love to move him.

[rbirules]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

Same for me, but as you suggest, for an established, younger player. Makes no sense to trade for a guy in his 30’s at this point. We have need at center and right D….. probably like 90% of the teams in the league!

Yep, I'd say right now #2c and a top 4 RHD are the hardest positions to fill in the NHL right now.

#2c is incredibly difficult because the salaries are all over the place and what makes a good #2c?

What point range do you expect from them and what salary range gets you that point production? Last year saw a massive run on #2c and it was going to about 7 million, so with the cap going up that might be what Army is looking at. You don't want to overpay for a 3rd line center to make them a 2nd line center. It's an incredibly difficult position to fill right now.

The biggest problem with RHD is there are just so few of them. Everyone lately appears to be a lefty and there is a glut of those in the NHL. If I'm raising a hockey player I'm making him a righty as he likely just keeps going because there are so few.

I wonder why it's that way? About 90% of people are right handed. The dominant hand in a righty is lowest to the ice and controls the stick most.

Actually, if you stick handle correctly, you’re using your top hand just as much if not more than your bottom hand. THAT is why there’s so few righties in the pro ranks. In Canada and Europe especially, kids are taught to have their dominant hand on the top of the stick for dexterity purposes. The bottom hand is used more for power. It’s easier to improve power than dexterity in your non-dominant hand.

Yep, all of this. In the US a lot more kids grow up also playing baseball so they hold their hockey stick the same way they hold a baseball bat, Canadians and Europeans don't play baseball on nearly the same level as Americans so their righties shoot left, and their lefties shoot right.

[rbirules]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

Same for me, but as you suggest, for an established, younger player. Makes no sense to trade for a guy in his 30’s at this point. We have need at center and right D….. probably like 90% of the teams in the league!

I think it makes all the sense in the world to trade for a player in his 30's just like it did for Fowler. Outside of acquiring a young stud I actually think it makes the most sense.

My preference would be a 30's center that is very good but comes cheap in a trade because maybe he is a little overpaid for a couple years.

Like who? As I stated in my post, the cap going up makes contracts that were "overpaid" look much more reasonable. What really good centers are there that are in their 30s? Which ones are overpaid and the team is willing to move on from them?

Is ROR still very good? I'm not sure. What about Stamkos? Is he even a center? You gonna make a run at Crosby? He won't be cheap. Duchene, Granlund, and Taveras will be FAs (as I said it doesn't have to be a trade). Do the Rangers pull a 180 and trade J.T. Miller?

[Hazelwood72]

I’d say the Blues are currently somewhat positioned similarly to what they were the summer of 2018 when they traded for ROR and signed Bozak. They absolutely should make that sort of move again if they can. But finding that trade partner will be the hard part. And what if the player needs to waive his NTC to come here? Or he’s a RFA and due a new contract? Would he even want to come here and commit to STL for X number of years? That’s the unknown in the situation. But yes, Army should be pursuing such a deal and we have the assets available to pull it off if the right deal comes along and Army feels it’s time to pull the trigger.

You asked about players waiving their NTC to come to St. Louis. From what I’ve observed, STL is looked upon pretty favorably by many NHL players, especially those from Canada. I don’t know if European players feel the same way. Seems like a lot of the Russians gravitate to the East Coast and Florida teams.

[moose-and-squirrel]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

Same for me, but as you suggest, for an established, younger player. Makes no sense to trade for a guy in his 30’s at this point. We have need at center and right D….. probably like 90% of the teams in the league!

I think it makes all the sense in the world to trade for a player in his 30's just like it did for Fowler. Outside of acquiring a young stud I actually think it makes the most sense.

My preference would be a 30's center that is very good but comes cheap in a trade because maybe he is a little overpaid for a couple years.

Like who? As I stated in my post, the cap going up makes contracts that were "overpaid" look much more reasonable. What really good centers are there that are in their 30s? Which ones are overpaid and the team is willing to move on from them?

Is ROR still very good? I'm not sure. What about Stamkos? Is he even a center? You gonna make a run at Crosby? He won't be cheap. Duchene, Granlund, and Taveras will be FAs (as I said it doesn't have to be a trade). Do the Rangers pull a 180 and trade J.T. Miller?

who Skilles is describing is Taveras or ROR. not sure JT will leave TOR, and I'm guessing he'd want at least Schenn money. ROR has a more affordable contract, but not sure Nashville would trade him. from what I watched of ROR this last season, he still looked fine to me. besides, he didn't have a lot of foot speed to lose lol

[rbirules]

I don't really think so, I think you do your best to fill a center spot without giving up top assets and keep drafting.

My theory forever has been that you never sell out futures for win now.

The Blues are in a tricky spot as they are coming out of the "re-whatever" and start building or shaping a contending roster, and doing so ahead of schedule. If this year didn't go as well as it did I think it would be very easy to hold firm and stay the course, but if you do that then you might squander a few really good chances to make a deep playoff run because some key pieces are going to need to be replaced (at least in top roles) in a few years time. But pushing more chips in now (for trades at least) makes it harder to fill those holes in two, three, or four years.

Key players age to start next season:
Thomas - 26
Parayko - 32 (5 years remaining)
Binnington - 32 (2 years remaining)
Fowler - 33 (1 year remaining)
Kyrou - 27
Holloway - 24
Broberg - 24
Buch - 30
Schenn - 34 (3 years remaining)
Faulk - 34 (2 years remaining)
Neighbors - 24
Bolduc - 22


That's a decent mix of age ranges overall, but look towards the top of the list. Thomas is going into his age 26 season, assuming players peak in their late 20s and start to decline around age 30 then our best player has a 5 year window. Parayko, Binnington, and Fowler are all early in their decline phases/years but those positions might age a bit better than forwards. That combined with contract situations (hopefully Fowler can be extended a few years) means you probably have about a two, maybe three, year window where your #1 goalie and top defensive pair can be expected to keep performing close to their current levels. I think this is the real argument for pushing some chips in to really upgrade the roster for the next few seasons (within reason, could come via FA, not necessarily trading futures). Sure in 3 years we hope Fowler is still here and he and Parayko are a solid second pairing, but we still need a top RHD to pair with Broberg by that time.

We have wingers that are in their prime (Kyrou, and I guess Buch), another that looks like he's just entering it (Holloway, and probably Neighbors) and a few others about to get there or still progressing (Bolduc, Snuggy).

Which brings me to the two oldest players listed, Schenn and Faulk are both going into their age 34 seasons, and right now they are the #2C and #2RHD, respectively. That's where you need to target upgrades (either replacing those players or pushing them down a line, or pairing), IMO, if you want to push this roster to the next level in the short term (or add an elite winger), unfortunately, those two positions are pretty tough to fill.

Again, our #2C, our starting goalie, and three of our top 4 defensemen are in their early to mid-30s and other than Parayko they are signed for 1-3 years (Fowler 1, Schenn 3, Binner and Faulk 2). Do you try to do something to increase your chances in the next 2-3 years while these players are here, or do you keep focusing on 3-5 years out (end of Thomas' and Kyrou's prime) knowing those players might be gone or in a diminished role at that time? There's no wrong answer, and I don't envy Army and Steen for having to figure that out (well actually it sounds like a fun "problem" to have as a job).

The rising cap makes this harder and easier at the same time. We could address this addition just using money, but there aren't (m)any #2C options available in FA, at least not this year, and every team has money so they don't have to shed big contracts even if they are "re-whatever-ing".

Forwards actually tend to peak around age 24, at least in terms of offensive production anyway. I’d argue that once you include two-way ability, the actual peak is around 26-27 (sacrificing a little offense for better two-way play). Obviously each player is their own unique person but that’s what the averages suggest. So in that sense, Thomas and Kyrou are already past or just about to exit their peaks. It’s quite possible we’ve already seen the best of them.

So with that in mind, I can absolutely see why Army would want to speed up the re-whatever. He needs to make this team a Cup contender quickly before Thomas’ decline really sets in. He’s got a relatively short window IMO. Then I’d say he likely has a 2nd window where the younger guys will be the main core and Thomas might be more of the supporting 2C vet by then.

So yeah, the time is now to make a ROR type trade if Army can find one IMO.

Thanks for that information. I assumed aging curves were pretty general and that forwards would peak earlier than defensemen. So as you say, Kyrou is at the tail end of his peak. Thomas is at his peak and maybe has two years of top production (two-way) remaining, while Neighbors and Holloway are expected to peak next year. So our top center, top two wingers (plus Neighbors), our starting goalie, and three of our top four defensemen are all at a point where the best we'll probably get out of them will be in the next 2 (maybe 3) years.

Exactly, I think there are two windows. We are right in the middle of the current window, which is probably pretty short. Then the next window is Bolduc, Snuggy, Dvo, and our top prospects with our current core (Thomas, Broberg, Holloway, Kyrou, and Parayko still around) being the supporting players in 4-5 years. I think the current window needs a #2C (or other elite forward), and ideally an upgrade at #2RHD if they want to make an extended playoff run or two.

[rbirules]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

Same for me, but as you suggest, for an established, younger player. Makes no sense to trade for a guy in his 30’s at this point. We have need at center and right D….. probably like 90% of the teams in the league!

I think it makes all the sense in the world to trade for a player in his 30's just like it did for Fowler. Outside of acquiring a young stud I actually think it makes the most sense.

My preference would be a 30's center that is very good but comes cheap in a trade because maybe he is a little overpaid for a couple years.

Like who? As I stated in my post, the cap going up makes contracts that were "overpaid" look much more reasonable. What really good centers are there that are in their 30s? Which ones are overpaid and the team is willing to move on from them?

Is ROR still very good? I'm not sure. What about Stamkos? Is he even a center? You gonna make a run at Crosby? He won't be cheap. Duchene, Granlund, and Taveras will be FAs (as I said it doesn't have to be a trade). Do the Rangers pull a 180 and trade J.T. Miller?

who Skilles is describing is Taveras or ROR. not sure JT will leave TOR, and I'm guessing he'd want at least Schenn money. ROR has a more affordable contract, but not sure Nashville would trade him. from what I watched of ROR this last season, he still looked fine to me. besides, he didn't have a lot of foot speed to lose lol

Is ROR going to bump Schenn down and center Kyrou and Holloway? Do you put those two with Thomas and have ROR (assuming he's the get, I'd prefer the 2025 equivalent of the 2018 ROR trade) center Buch and Snuggy and Schenn center Bolduc and Neighbors/Dvo?

[Hazelwood72]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

Same for me, but as you suggest, for an established, younger player. Makes no sense to trade for a guy in his 30’s at this point. We have need at center and right D….. probably like 90% of the teams in the league!

Yep, I'd say right now #2c and a top 4 RHD are the hardest positions to fill in the NHL right now.

#2c is incredibly difficult because the salaries are all over the place and what makes a good #2c?

What point range do you expect from them and what salary range gets you that point production? Last year saw a massive run on #2c and it was going to about 7 million, so with the cap going up that might be what Army is looking at. You don't want to overpay for a 3rd line center to make them a 2nd line center. It's an incredibly difficult position to fill right now.

The biggest problem with RHD is there are just so few of them. Everyone lately appears to be a lefty and there is a glut of those in the NHL. If I'm raising a hockey player I'm making him a righty as he likely just keeps going because there are so few.

I wonder why it's that way? About 90% of people are right handed. The dominant hand in a righty is lowest to the ice and controls the stick most.

Actually, if you stick handle correctly, you’re using your top hand just as much if not more than your bottom hand. THAT is why there’s so few righties in the pro ranks. In Canada and Europe especially, kids are taught to have their dominant hand on the top of the stick for dexterity purposes. The bottom hand is used more for power. It’s easier to improve power than dexterity in your non-dominant hand.

Yep, all of this. In the US a lot more kids grow up also playing baseball so they hold their hockey stick the same way they hold a baseball bat, Canadians and Europeans don't play baseball on nearly the same level as Americans so their righties shoot left, and their lefties shoot right.

I’m 71, and when I was a teen, righthanded Canadian kids were taught to shoot lefthanded since you were taught to put your weight on the front foot while shooting. When you shoot lefty, your weight is on the dominant right skate.

Nowadays, you see players shoot with the weight on either foot, so it’s less of an issue. I could never get the hang of shooting left because I’m very right hand dominant.

I eventually quit playing defense and played in goal (my favorite and better position anyway). Unlike modern, proper technique, I still shot and passed forehanded/right handed even with a goal stick and used it backhanded on my left side, much like CuJo used to do. (I found it harder to find goal sticks without a big curve — had to order flat goal sticks!)

[skilles]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

Same for me, but as you suggest, for an established, younger player. Makes no sense to trade for a guy in his 30’s at this point. We have need at center and right D….. probably like 90% of the teams in the league!

I think it makes all the sense in the world to trade for a player in his 30's just like it did for Fowler. Outside of acquiring a young stud I actually think it makes the most sense.

My preference would be a 30's center that is very good but comes cheap in a trade because maybe he is a little overpaid for a couple years.

Like who? As I stated in my post, the cap going up makes contracts that were "overpaid" look much more reasonable. What really good centers are there that are in their 30s? Which ones are overpaid and the team is willing to move on from them?

Is ROR still very good? I'm not sure. What about Stamkos? Is he even a center? You gonna make a run at Crosby? He won't be cheap. Duchene, Granlund, and Taveras will be FAs (as I said it doesn't have to be a trade). Do the Rangers pull a 180 and trade J.T. Miller?

I'll be honest I don't have time to pay enough attention around the league any more to be able to answer that question very well so I just think the concept makes sense and I'm sure they are out there.

Guys in there 30's at the end other their contracts that have already been replace and are now a little over paid for the last couple years. Seguin, ROR type. Stamkos would maybe fit the bill.

An aging overpaid 2c makes much more sense for us than it does a lot of other teams as we just need to buy a couple years and already have our future in house.

Something very much to the Cam Fowler deal.