Is Now The Time For The Blues To Take A Big Swing?

[TBone]

Based on Doug Armstrong's post-season press conference, if DA takes a big swing it would likely be for a center or high production goal scorer.

Enter the Dallas Stars who were referenced as being ahead of the Blues trajectory by a year or two. The acquisition of the 6'4" Mikko Rantanen from the Hurricanes was an all-in move and is currently paying off in spades. The cost in picks, players and salary was steep, but one the Blues could potentially pull off. I don't know what the conditions were on the trade, but given his production I assume they'll be met.

Here was the trade...

March 7, 2025: Traded by the Carolina Hurricanes to the Dallas Stars for 1st round draft pick in 2026 conditional, 1st round draft pick in 2028 conditional, 3rd round draft pick in 2026 , 3rd round draft pick in 2027 and Logan Stankoven.

1) Would a similar price be too steep / high risk for this Blues team?
2) Which players of similar impact might be available or would fit the bill for what the Blues need?
3) And is this team one key player away or do we need even more to be an elite Cup contender?

Part of the equation is the remaining shelf life of our older core players like Binnington, Parayko and now Cam Fowler. Are the next two to three 1st round draft picks going to get here fast enough to make an impact before our older players age out? I love the gems the scouting department continues to deliver, so trading more high draft choices would interupt the pipeline.

I'm a passionate Blues fan, but not an intense follower of the league. So I'd love to hear from those who follow both: is this year or next is the time to take the big swing ala ROR in 2019? Or do we have enough (with more coming) to do smaller adds to finish the retool? Opinions welcomed.

[STL fan in MN]

I’d say the Blues are currently somewhat positioned similarly to what they were the summer of 2018 when they traded for ROR and signed Bozak. They absolutely should make that sort of move again if they can. But finding that trade partner will be the hard part. And what if the player needs to waive his NTC to come here? Or he’s a RFA and due a new contract? Would he even want to come here and commit to STL for X number of years? That’s the unknown in the situation. But yes, Army should be pursuing such a deal and we have the assets available to pull it off if the right deal comes along and Army feels it’s time to pull the trigger.

[Zizzle1297]

Buch and Faulk to Rangers for Vincent Trocheck and Brian Schneider

[skilles]

I don't really think so, I think you do your best to fill a center spot without giving up top assets and keep drafting.

My theory forever has been that you never sell out futures for win now.

Now that would not mean you can't swap out futures for better fitting futures.

The idea is after making the original sacrifice of not doing that those futures you didn't trade are more valuable than the next short term fix.

[TheJackBurton]

Buch and Faulk to Rangers for Vincent Trocheck and Brian Schneider

Stop it.

[TheJackBurton]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

[Frank Underwood]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

Same for me, but as you suggest, for an established, younger player. Makes no sense to trade for a guy in his 30’s at this point. We have need at center and right D….. probably like 90% of the teams in the league!

[rbirules]

I don't really think so, I think you do your best to fill a center spot without giving up top assets and keep drafting.

My theory forever has been that you never sell out futures for win now.

The Blues are in a tricky spot as they are coming out of the "re-whatever" and start building or shaping a contending roster, and doing so ahead of schedule. If this year didn't go as well as it did I think it would be very easy to hold firm and stay the course, but if you do that then you might squander a few really good chances to make a deep playoff run because some key pieces are going to need to be replaced (at least in top roles) in a few years time. But pushing more chips in now (for trades at least) makes it harder to fill those holes in two, three, or four years.

Key players age to start next season:
Thomas - 26
Parayko - 32 (5 years remaining)
Binnington - 32 (2 years remaining)
Fowler - 33 (1 year remaining)
Kyrou - 27
Holloway - 24
Broberg - 24
Buch - 30
Schenn - 34 (3 years remaining)
Faulk - 34 (2 years remaining)
Neighbors - 24
Bolduc - 22


That's a decent mix of age ranges overall, but look towards the top of the list. Thomas is going into his age 26 season, assuming players peak in their late 20s and start to decline around age 30 then our best player has a 5 year window. Parayko, Binnington, and Fowler are all early in their decline phases/years but those positions might age a bit better than forwards. That combined with contract situations (hopefully Fowler can be extended a few years) means you probably have about a two, maybe three, year window where your #1 goalie and top defensive pair can be expected to keep performing close to their current levels. I think this is the real argument for pushing some chips in to really upgrade the roster for the next few seasons (within reason, could come via FA, not necessarily trading futures). Sure in 3 years we hope Fowler is still here and he and Parayko are a solid second pairing, but we still need a top RHD to pair with Broberg by that time.

We have wingers that are in their prime (Kyrou, and I guess Buch), another that looks like he's just entering it (Holloway, and probably Neighbors) and a few others about to get there or still progressing (Bolduc, Snuggy).

Which brings me to the two oldest players listed, Schenn and Faulk are both going into their age 34 seasons, and right now they are the #2C and #2RHD, respectively. That's where you need to target upgrades (either replacing those players or pushing them down a line, or pairing), IMO, if you want to push this roster to the next level in the short term (or add an elite winger), unfortunately, those two positions are pretty tough to fill.

Again, our #2C, our starting goalie, and three of our top 4 defensemen are in their early to mid-30s and other than Parayko they are signed for 1-3 years (Fowler 1, Schenn 3, Binner and Faulk 2). Do you try to do something to increase your chances in the next 2-3 years while these players are here, or do you keep focusing on 3-5 years out (end of Thomas' and Kyrou's prime) knowing those players might be gone or in a diminished role at that time? There's no wrong answer, and I don't envy Army and Steen for having to figure that out (well actually it sounds like a fun "problem" to have as a job).

The rising cap makes this harder and easier at the same time. We could address this addition just using money, but there aren't (m)any #2C options available in FA, at least not this year, and every team has money so they don't have to shed big contracts even if they are "re-whatever-ing".

[TheJackBurton]

I'm still looking at Trevor Zegras. He has a year left at 5.75 and then RFA so the cost wouldn't be very high as far as prospects as he has seen a decline in play.

He's been dealing with injuries so that has slowed his production, but he has had 6-9-15 and 12-19-31 so not exactly superstar numbers. He is fast, highly skilled, and is absolutely a bounce back candidate with Kyrou and Holloway.

[TheJackBurton]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

Same for me, but as you suggest, for an established, younger player. Makes no sense to trade for a guy in his 30’s at this point. We have need at center and right D….. probably like 90% of the teams in the league!

Yep, I'd say right now #2c and a top 4 RHD are the hardest positions to fill in the NHL right now.

#2c is incredibly difficult because the salaries are all over the place and what makes a good #2c?

What point range do you expect from them and what salary range gets you that point production? Last year saw a massive run on #2c and it was going to about 7 million, so with the cap going up that might be what Army is looking at. You don't want to overpay for a 3rd line center to make them a 2nd line center. It's an incredibly difficult position to fill right now.

The biggest problem with RHD is there are just so few of them. Everyone lately appears to be a lefty and there is a glut of those in the NHL. If I'm raising a hockey player I'm making him a righty as he likely just keeps going because there are so few.

[STL fan in MN]

I don't really think so, I think you do your best to fill a center spot without giving up top assets and keep drafting.

My theory forever has been that you never sell out futures for win now.

Now that would not mean you can't swap out futures for better fitting futures.

The idea is after making the original sacrifice of not doing that those futures you didn't trade are more valuable than the next short term fix.

So you wouldn’t have done the ROR trade? That required sending out futures - Tage Thompson, a 1st and a 2nd (along with Bergy and Sobotka).

[FunSeeker]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

Same for me, but as you suggest, for an established, younger player. Makes no sense to trade for a guy in his 30’s at this point. We have need at center and right D….. probably like 90% of the teams in the league!

Yep, I'd say right now #2c and a top 4 RHD are the hardest positions to fill in the NHL right now.

#2c is incredibly difficult because the salaries are all over the place and what makes a good #2c?

What point range do you expect from them and what salary range gets you that point production? Last year saw a massive run on #2c and it was going to about 7 million, so with the cap going up that might be what Army is looking at. You don't want to overpay for a 3rd line center to make them a 2nd line center. It's an incredibly difficult position to fill right now.

The biggest problem with RHD is there are just so few of them. Everyone lately appears to be a lefty and there is a glut of those in the NHL. If I'm raising a hockey player I'm making him a righty as he likely just keeps going because there are so few.

I wonder why it's that way? About 90% of people are right handed. The dominant hand in a righty is lowest to the ice and controls the stick most.

[skilles]

I don't really think so, I think you do your best to fill a center spot without giving up top assets and keep drafting.

My theory forever has been that you never sell out futures for win now.

The Blues are in a tricky spot as they are coming out of the "re-whatever" and start building or shaping a contending roster, and doing so ahead of schedule. If this year didn't go as well as it did I think it would be very easy to hold firm and stay the course, but if you do that then you might squander a few really good chances to make a deep playoff run because some key pieces are going to need to be replaced (at least in top roles) in a few years time. But pushing more chips in now (for trades at least) makes it harder to fill those holes in two, three, or four years.

Key players age to start next season:
Thomas - 26
Parayko - 32 (5 years remaining)
Binnington - 32 (2 years remaining)
Fowler - 33 (1 year remaining)
Kyrou - 27
Holloway - 24
Broberg - 24
Buch - 30
Schenn - 34 (3 years remaining)
Faulk - 34 (2 years remaining)
Neighbors - 24
Bolduc - 22


That's a decent mix of age ranges overall, but look towards the top of the list. Thomas is going into his age 26 season, assuming players peak in their late 20s and start to decline around age 30 then our best player has a 5 year window. Parayko, Binnington, and Fowler are all early in their decline phases/years but those positions might age a bit better than forwards. That combined with contract situations (hopefully Fowler can be extended a few years) means you probably have about a two, maybe three, year window where your #1 goalie and top defensive pair can be expected to keep performing close to their current levels. I think this is the real argument for pushing some chips in to really upgrade the roster for the next few seasons (within reason, could come via FA, not necessarily trading futures). Sure in 3 years we hope Fowler is still here and he and Parayko are a solid second pairing, but we still need a top RHD to pair with Broberg by that time.

We have wingers that are in their prime (Kyrou, and I guess Buch), another that looks like he's just entering it (Holloway, and probably Neighbors) and a few others about to get there or still progressing (Bolduc, Snuggy).

Which brings me to the two oldest players listed, Schenn and Faulk are both going into their age 34 seasons, and right now they are the #2C and #2RHD, respectively. That's where you need to target upgrades (either replacing those players or pushing them down a line, or pairing), IMO, if you want to push this roster to the next level in the short term (or add an elite winger), unfortunately, those two positions are pretty tough to fill.

Again, our #2C, our starting goalie, and three of our top 4 defensemen are in their early to mid-30s and other than Parayko they are signed for 1-3 years (Fowler 1, Schenn 3, Binner and Faulk 2). Do you try to do something to increase your chances in the next 2-3 years while these players are here, or do you keep focusing on 3-5 years out (end of Thomas' and Kyrou's prime) knowing those players might be gone or in a diminished role at that time? There's no wrong answer, and I don't envy Army and Steen for having to figure that out (well actually it sounds like a fun "problem" to have as a job).

The rising cap makes this harder and easier at the same time. We could address this addition just using money, but there aren't (m)any #2C options available in FA, at least not this year, and every team has money so they don't have to shed big contracts even if they are "re-whatever-ing".

I just don't think its THAT tricky, just keep doing what we have been doing.

[skilles]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

Same for me, but as you suggest, for an established, younger player. Makes no sense to trade for a guy in his 30’s at this point. We have need at center and right D….. probably like 90% of the teams in the league!

I think it makes all the sense in the world to trade for a player in his 30's just like it did for Fowler. Outside of acquiring a young stud I actually think it makes the most sense.

My preference would be a 30's center that is very good but comes cheap in a trade because maybe he is a little overpaid for a couple years.

[STL fan in MN]

I'm still looking at Trevor Zegras. He has a year left at 5.75 and then RFA so the cost wouldn't be very high as far as prospects as he has seen a decline in play.

He's been dealing with injuries so that has slowed his production, but he has had 6-9-15 and 12-19-31 so not exactly superstar numbers. He is fast, highly skilled, and is absolutely a bounce back candidate with Kyrou and Holloway.

He hasn’t really played center in about 2 seasons though.

Plays soft and small, trending the wrong direction…he wouldn’t be my target tbh.

[STL fan in MN]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

Same for me, but as you suggest, for an established, younger player. Makes no sense to trade for a guy in his 30’s at this point. We have need at center and right D….. probably like 90% of the teams in the league!

Yep, I'd say right now #2c and a top 4 RHD are the hardest positions to fill in the NHL right now.

#2c is incredibly difficult because the salaries are all over the place and what makes a good #2c?

What point range do you expect from them and what salary range gets you that point production? Last year saw a massive run on #2c and it was going to about 7 million, so with the cap going up that might be what Army is looking at. You don't want to overpay for a 3rd line center to make them a 2nd line center. It's an incredibly difficult position to fill right now.

The biggest problem with RHD is there are just so few of them. Everyone lately appears to be a lefty and there is a glut of those in the NHL. If I'm raising a hockey player I'm making him a righty as he likely just keeps going because there are so few.

I wonder why it's that way? About 90% of people are right handed. The dominant hand in a righty is lowest to the ice and controls the stick most.

Actually, if you stick handle correctly, you’re using your top hand just as much if not more than your bottom hand. THAT is why there’s so few righties in the pro ranks. In Canada and Europe especially, kids are taught to have their dominant hand on the top of the stick for dexterity purposes. The bottom hand is used more for power. It’s easier to improve power than dexterity in your non-dominant hand.