so if liberatore becomes a solid starter do we reassess the trade

[last deadhead]

i still think it was a bad trade and here is why
when the trade was made the cards were in a win now mode and their crowded outfield could have used aroz's production over bader,oneil and i think piscotty was still in the mix.
the cards got no help from the trade in those win now years and while lib is starting to look good now there is no telling if he will still be around or effective by the time the cardinals are competitive again.
an arm injury could take away a couple years and injuries to pitchers seem to be the norm now and not the exception and not sure how many more years the cards have of cheap control over him .
it was the wrong trade involving the wrong guys at the time
if the cards can keep him long term and he becomes jerry reuss great, it will go down as a great trade. if he walks when a free agent,then the cards really didnt benefit from the trade.

[MIDMOBIRDTWO]

Never would have been necessary if they kept him in the pen. He has immense value as a top starter, and that sure looks more and more what he is developing into.

Yep it's definitely coming together for him...and he's getting more and more confident in his stuff...

I hate labeling guys, but I go back to Steve Carlton days. Saw him throw a complete game one hitter against the Cubs in 1967. Liberatore may be the best left handed pitcher the Cards have developed since Steve if he stays on this track.

No disrespect to either Lefty or Libby, but I still maintain that Rick Ankiel pre-yips was the best Cardinal SP I've ever seen. Granted, Carlton was retired by the time I was born.

Carlton was good for the Cardinals, but they didn't score a lot of runs like the Phillies did most years. His slider was the best I ever saw, looked like it hit a tree branch and just dove straight down. I think Liberatore can be good for a lot longer period of time than Ankiel, who no doubt had a golden arm for a short time.

[AnExParrot]

i still think it was a bad trade and here is why
when the trade was made the cards were in a win now mode and their crowded outfield could have used aroz's production over bader,oneil and i think piscotty was still in the mix.
the cards got no help from the trade in those win now years and while lib is starting to look good now there is no telling if he will still be around or effective by the time the cardinals are competitive again.
an arm injury could take away a couple years and injuries to pitchers seem to be the norm now and not the exception and not sure how many more years the cards have of cheap control over him .
it was the wrong trade involving the wrong guys at the time
if the cards can keep him long term and he becomes jerry reuss great, it will go down as a great trade. if he walks when a free agent,then the cards really didnt benefit from the trade.

That's the same argument ecleme has been making since... 11 minutes after the trade.

I'll only say this, the team decides what they're trading for and why, not you or ecleme.

[Goldfan]

I’ve given Libby a lot of (bleep) but it looks like he might have figured it out. Good for him and the Cards

[Talkin' Baseball]

Of course, if he changes, we have to reassess the trade. That's what you do when new information becomes available. Only stubborn fools stick to old opinions based on old information. Nothing wrong with opinions, but they should be informed.

[3dender]

From a pure value standpoint it will be tough for Libby to ever be worth as much as Arozarena, comparing each of their 6 years of team control before free agency.

Arozarena will be worth somewhere between 15 and 18 WAR by the end of this year, his 5th year. If he tacks on another 2 next year that's 20 WAR over 6 years.

Lib is at 0.3 WAR after almost 2 years of team control (he's currently at 1.144 years of service time, I'm not totally sure how that works). So can Libby be worth like 5 WAR per year starting next year for 4 more years? Highly doubtful.

[hugeCardfan]

Arozarena had produced 13.6 War while Matthew 2.3. As of at this point in this season he is however out performing Randy. Still has a ways to go though to call the trade even. Hopefully he performs this way for a few more years for the Cards.

This isn't going to wind up a WAR match to measure the success of the trade. We were desperate for pitching and we needed Liberatore. He hasn't developed as quickly as Arozarena but he wasn't as old either. Now Randy is in his 5th year of control and next year he plays out his FA year. Libby is in his 2d year of control and is a Cardinal for 4 more years and I won't be surprised if we extend him. The trade circumstance is becoming overwhelmingly in favor of Libby.

Sure, RA had a great postseason. He looked like he was going to become a run away star. He just hasn't. After a 4 WAR he's only had one above 2... I doubt he will be extended by his current team. In the mean time, if we proffered Libby up RIGHT NOW, teams would be lining up. Of course, we don't know for a fact if he's become a premier pitcher....but, we can sure feel good about his prospects. Let's see, a lefty starter with a 97 mph fastball, and 4 solid pitches all of which he commands extremely well.

No one should want to reconsider that trade at this point.

The Cards didn't need to think about pitching for 2025 in 2019.

Make no mistake, a big part of this trade was Mo's perceived traffic jam in the OF.

So what? It took Libby longer than I'm sure the Cards had hoped. Still he was useful in their pen last year and now he's developing into a full fledged pitcher with star potential....like they'd always hoped. Make no mistake, I'm not defending Mo's trade of Arozarena. I was very high on him when he first came up to St Louis after a great year in the minors. Turns out, Arozarena wasn't a sustainable star. He's another outfielder who's enjoyed moments of brilliance, while enduring periods of mediocrity. Years later, we finally have a pitcher with star potential and years to enjoy him.

Yeah, we screwed the pooch for a few years with outfielders while outfitting some of our competitors. No superstars left to carve out careers elsewhere. Just some solid ballplayers. Bash Mo on your own time; I don't have the patience for that.

My post on Page 1 in response to jbrach's OP:
Question:

If after the 2015 season, the Cubs traded Hendricks for a 17 year old Tatis Jr. and the Cubs didn't win a WS, who would you declare the winner of the trade?

We all know if we were Cubs fans today, we would be very happy Tatis and his 161 OPS+ is a Cub over a 35 year old Hendricks.

But, knowing what we know now, who would've won this trade?

If Libby has found himself in 2025 and proves to be a good starter, then GREAT. Amazing. But make no mistake, that trade removed from the team in desperate need of an OF bat for most, if not all, of the Goldy/Arenado window.

Declaring winners and losers over a trade is something fans with too much time on their hands do. Obsessing over a trade made for a prospect is not in my nature. No one checked with me at the time. We can only speculate what arozarena might have done in St Louis.

Developing top of rotation pitching is always a goal. It’s so hard to do. I refuse to object that we lost Arozarena in the acquisition of Liberatore.

We have 4 plus years of what appears to be a TOR in the making. I’ll take it.

[rockondlouie]

I'd like to say it now looks like a "win-win" trade.

Libby looked like he may "only" end up being a solid MRP.

But whoever made the decision at the end of STing (Bloom?) to make him a starter is looking like a genius.

Randy A (career: .252 .347 .434 .781) has been very good.

WIN-WIN

[ecleme22]

Been preaching for years that Libby had this type of talent and that they needed to give him the consistency that a starter needs to unlock it.

Loving that he's showing out this year... one of the bright spots.

And to whomever said it... yeah, I think Bloom was the catalyst, likely told Mozo to stop being a bozo and put him in the rotation.

And yet, cards signed 3 starters last year and not a word from you that Libby was blocked….

It’s weird the things you forget.

Nope. You didn't say a word.

I remember. I wrote an OP about how it was weird/curious that the big Libby fans weren't up in arms with the Gray/Gibson/Lynn signings.

Now more than a year later, Libby has a really good April and you're all like, "Hey guys, remember when I was talking about Libby in 2022!!??"

[Absolut]

Been preaching for years that Libby had this type of talent and that they needed to give him the consistency that a starter needs to unlock it.

Loving that he's showing out this year... one of the bright spots.

And to whomever said it... yeah, I think Bloom was the catalyst, likely told Mozo to stop being a bozo and put him in the rotation.

And yet, cards signed 3 starters last year and not a word from you that Libby was blocked….

It’s weird the things you forget.

Nope. You didn't say a word.

I remember. I wrote an OP about how it was weird/curious that the big Libby fans weren't up in arms with the Gray/Gibson/Lynn signings.

Now more than a year later, Libby has a really good April and you're all like, "Hey guys, remember when I was talking about Libby in 2022!!??"

I liked the gray signing but was vocal I’d rather see the younger guys over Gibson and Lynn. I wanted them to put Libby in a role and leave him there. Relief or starter, but I don’t think they were helping him bouncing back and forth.


As to the OP, I don’t know why you don’t wait for the full return before assessing. If Libby challenges for cy young’s and wins 150 games as a Cardinal are you going to cut off the assessment now?

[ecleme22]

Been preaching for years that Libby had this type of talent and that they needed to give him the consistency that a starter needs to unlock it.

Loving that he's showing out this year... one of the bright spots.

And to whomever said it... yeah, I think Bloom was the catalyst, likely told Mozo to stop being a bozo and put him in the rotation.

And yet, cards signed 3 starters last year and not a word from you that Libby was blocked….

It’s weird the things you forget.

Nope. You didn't say a word.

I remember. I wrote an OP about how it was weird/curious that the big Libby fans weren't up in arms with the Gray/Gibson/Lynn signings.

Now more than a year later, Libby has a really good April and you're all like, "Hey guys, remember when I was talking about Libby in 2022!!??"

I liked the gray signing but was vocal I’d rather see the younger guys over Gibson and Lynn. I wanted them to put Libby in a role and leave him there. Relief or starter, but I don’t think they were helping him bouncing back and forth.


As to the OP, I don’t know why you don’t wait for the full return before assessing. If Libby challenges for cy young’s and wins 150 games as a Cardinal are you going to cut off the assessment now?

See my post at the end of page 1

[Bomber1]

mo took all sorts of abuse but it looks like long run this may be a win

Sure is looking good now. The bashers will develop amnesia

Liberatore has pitched great this year.

But while he was struggling in MLB and playing in Memphis Arozarena has put up 14 WAR in 4 1/4 seasons while Liberatore has 0.3 career WAR.

Plus Arozarena had one of the best postseasons ever and just turned 30.

It still could turn out to be a good deal for the Birds, but we sure could have used Arozarena during the postseasons of 2020-2022.

[Bomber1]

Randy A. isn't that great.

How many Cardinals are out performing him this year?

I’ll give you a not wank. Not many.

so as of right now you would trade libby for randy A?...of course you wouldnt

What kind of question is that?

You just ignore everything Arozarena has done, and Liberatore has NOT done over the last 4+ seasons?

Ok

[Absolut]

Been preaching for years that Libby had this type of talent and that they needed to give him the consistency that a starter needs to unlock it.

Loving that he's showing out this year... one of the bright spots.

And to whomever said it... yeah, I think Bloom was the catalyst, likely told Mozo to stop being a bozo and put him in the rotation.

And yet, cards signed 3 starters last year and not a word from you that Libby was blocked….

It’s weird the things you forget.

Nope. You didn't say a word.

I remember. I wrote an OP about how it was weird/curious that the big Libby fans weren't up in arms with the Gray/Gibson/Lynn signings.

Now more than a year later, Libby has a really good April and you're all like, "Hey guys, remember when I was talking about Libby in 2022!!??"

I liked the gray signing but was vocal I’d rather see the younger guys over Gibson and Lynn. I wanted them to put Libby in a role and leave him there. Relief or starter, but I don’t think they were helping him bouncing back and forth.


As to the OP, I don’t know why you don’t wait for the full return before assessing. If Libby challenges for cy young’s and wins 150 games as a Cardinal are you going to cut off the assessment now?

See my post at the end of page 1

Good example. An extreme one is Smoltz / Alexander.

[Basil Shabazz]

Never thought it was a bad trade from the beginning. We essentially traded away a RH Lars Nootbaar(Randy A stays healthier than Lars and Lars plays better defense) for a 21 year old, 1st round draft pick, LH starting pitcher. Libby was a lottery ticket worth trading for. Arozarena had a blistering COVID shortened 2020. In 2021 he won ROY w/ a 4.2 WAR, and 129 OPS +. That same year the Cards OF posted WARS of 6.4, 4.1, 3.2 and OPS+ of 148, 114, 115. The 6.4/148 coming from O'Neill who would have been the LF option vs Arozarena because Arozarena should not be a CF ever. Somethings are not predictable as Carlson disappeared as a rising star after '21. O'Neill had a down year and Bader regressed offensively all in one year. But then Lars came along in LF and him and Arozarena are essentially a loss.

Bottom line, LH stud starting pitchers are very hard to find and players develop at different paces. I am not sold yet that Libby is a top of the rotation guy. But I become more convinced after every start.

Trades cannot be evaluated in the short term.

[ecleme22]

Been preaching for years that Libby had this type of talent and that they needed to give him the consistency that a starter needs to unlock it.

Loving that he's showing out this year... one of the bright spots.

And to whomever said it... yeah, I think Bloom was the catalyst, likely told Mozo to stop being a bozo and put him in the rotation.

And yet, cards signed 3 starters last year and not a word from you that Libby was blocked….

It’s weird the things you forget.

Nope. You didn't say a word.

I remember. I wrote an OP about how it was weird/curious that the big Libby fans weren't up in arms with the Gray/Gibson/Lynn signings.

Now more than a year later, Libby has a really good April and you're all like, "Hey guys, remember when I was talking about Libby in 2022!!??"

I liked the gray signing but was vocal I’d rather see the younger guys over Gibson and Lynn. I wanted them to put Libby in a role and leave him there. Relief or starter, but I don’t think they were helping him bouncing back and forth.


As to the OP, I don’t know why you don’t wait for the full return before assessing. If Libby challenges for cy young’s and wins 150 games as a Cardinal are you going to cut off the assessment now?

See my post at the end of page 1

Good example. An extreme one is Smoltz / Alexander.

Smoltz trade at least made sense w the Tigers in 'win now' mode. A classic deadline deal. And if we remember, Smoltz made his major league debut less than a year after the trade.

Now, I'm going to switch things around a little so the Smoltz trade is more like the Libby trade.

End of the 1987 season. The Tigers are in win-now mode. They have a bunch of starting pitchers, but some are still suspect. Doyle Alexander is a young pitcher under full team control who just led the Detroit minor league system in starter ERA in 1987.

The Tigers, liking their other young suspect starters more, trade the mlb-ready Alexander to the Braves for a very young Smoltz who isn't projected to be an MLB factor until about 1991 (3-4 years), well after the Tigers' 'win-now' window is closed.

Teams in 'win now' mode don't do that. Actually, even rebuilding teams rarely trade a freaking rookie like Randy.