Futuregm2 wrote: ↑05 May 2025 14:16 pm
3dender wrote: ↑05 May 2025 14:03 pm
ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑05 May 2025 13:53 pm
3dender wrote: ↑05 May 2025 13:44 pm
ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑05 May 2025 13:08 pm
renostl wrote: ↑05 May 2025 12:13 pm
ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑05 May 2025 11:59 am
Either teams found a weakness in his game or some analytics guru got inside his head and changed his swing.
IMO, he is mostly in the same spot for the last several months.
He should still get plenty of playing time, at this time, but the team may need to see him as a 4th OFer
until he proves he's something different.
The same with Gorman. Give him PT but let both earn back any prominence in regards to
being a part of the future.
Why did he go from future star to this?
Well first off you missed an option in your either/or above: maybe he was never actually that good and the org mis-evaluated and overhyped him based on Spring Training and AA stats (where he wasn't even top-20 in the league out of 100 qualified hitters).
https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... jo02.shtml
Rookie year he was great.
Rookie year he was passable... 13% better than league average with the bat. How many other young guys come up and have above average rookie years only to be not good major leaguers? Can name a few on the Cards right off the top of my head: DeJong, Carlson, Pham, Adams, Jose Martinez, etc...
Even if you want to point to the age being a difference, Dylan Carlson is a pretty perfect example of what can happen when a young guy gets overhyped by the Cards org. Good pedigree, good build, good person, smart... but a weirdly ineffectual swing and maybe missing that extra layer of talent that you need to reach stardom.
I love when people say the “organization overhyped them” when they were top 10 prospects by every third party organization out there in Walker’s case and at least by Baseball America in Carlson’s case and top 15 by MLB/16th by Baseball Prospectus. It wasn’t just the Cardinals. But the sport is hard and there are players who don’t live up to their expectations. For the Cardinals it has happened far too much on what should be elite talent, so they need to figure out why that is happening so much.
It's interesting to look at the Cardinals top 3 rounds draftees over the past 10 years to see how many have worked out.
2015 -
1st - Jake Plummer (ouch)
CP - Jake Woodford (ouch)
2nd - Bruce Denton (ouch)
3rd - Harrison Bader
3rd supp - Jordan Hicks
They did pick up Dejong in the 4th round and Helsley in the 5th round.
2016 -
1st - Delvin Perez (ouch)
1st - Dylan Carlson (ouch)
1st - Dakota Hudson
2nd - Conner Jones (ouch)
3rd - Zac Gallen
They picked up Edman in the 6th and Knizner in the 7th.
2017 -
1st - none (ouch)
2nd - none (ouch)
3rd - Scott Hurst (ouch)
2018 -
1st - Nolan Groman
supp - Griffin Roberts (ouch)
2nd - Luken Baker
3rd - Mateo Gil (ouch)
They picked up Donovan in the 7th and Nootbaar in the 8th.
2019 -
1st - Zack Thompson (ouch)
2nd - Tre Fletcher (double ouch)
3rd - Tony Locey (ouch)
They picked up Pallante in the 4th and Pages in the 6th.
2020 -
1st - Jordan Walker
2nd - Maysn Winn
CB - Tink Hence
2C - Alec Burleson
3rd - Levi Prater (ouch)
Draft only had rounds 1-5.
2021 -
1st - Michael McGreevy
2nd - Joshua Baez (still a work in progress)
CB - Ryan Holgate (ouch)
3rd - Austin Love (ouch)
They drafted Graceffo in the 5th round
2022 -
1st - Coopeer Hjerpe
2nd - Bryson Mautz
3rd - Pete Hansen
They drafted Jimmy Crooks in the 4th and Victor Scott II in the 5th.
2023 -
1st - Chase Davis
2nd - forfeited
3rd - Travis Honeyman
They drafted Quinn Mathews in the 4th.
2024 -
1st - JJ Wetherholt
2nd - forfeited
3rd - Brian Holiday
Wonder why they've had more luck with picks in the 4th-7th round range than in the 1st-3rd round range.