What would be a "breakout season" for Lars Nootbaar

[woofy25]

With 1 game remaining in April, Nootbaar is hitting .270/.404/.450 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 20 runs, 24 BB-21 K in 29 games. That’s a pace for: 27 HR, 97 RBI, 107 runs, and 129 BB-112 K.

I’d say that’s a pretty good start to the year.

More walks than Ks
MLB Rank
BB - 3
OBP - 13
OPS - 38
Runs - 19
SLG - 58
HR - 47
RBI - 32

K - 130
Considering there are roughly 270 starting position players, Noot is in the top 21% or better/much better in seven major offensive categories.
What exactly do his detractors want out of him that isn’t health related? Provide on-field, performance based evidence that Noot should not be a starting position player. He’s closer to an all-star than he is to the bench

[greyhawk]

the answer on Noot is and will remain --- stay healthy and play more than 70-80 games in a season. In small bursts he has been terrific at leadoff but we just have never had anything sustained in a season yet.

[Melville]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

I’m not as high on Nootbar as others. Personally I think he’s a 4th OF on a playoff team. I would project him to do this on average the next 5 years.
130 GP 2.0 war 18 HR 320 OBP 750 ops
I think by next year he gets squeezed out of a starting spot. Next year we will have Wetherholt starting at 2B and Donovan will play over Noot in LF. Scott will be starting in CF. If Noot stays healthy this year then I package him in a trade for prospects.

Largely correct.
Though extremely unlikely that Lars The Human Sushi-baar will ever reach 18 HR in a season, let alone actually average that amount.
He should have been traded a couple of years ago as I was first to correctly analyze and advise.

He only needs 13 more HRs this season, right?

Take the under.

[Melville]

With 1 game remaining in April, Nootbaar is hitting .270/.404/.450 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 20 runs, 24 BB-21 K in 29 games. That’s a pace for: 27 HR, 97 RBI, 107 runs, and 129 BB-112 K.

I’d say that’s a pretty good start to the year.

It is a good start to the year.
Let's see where it ends.

[rockondlouie]

With 1 game remaining in April, Nootbaar is hitting .270/.404/.450 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 20 runs, 24 BB-21 K in 29 games. That’s a pace for: 27 HR, 97 RBI, 107 runs, and 129 BB-112 K.

I’d say that’s a pretty good start to the year.

It is a good start to the year.
Let's see where it ends.

If he stays healthy, then it will end w/him getting an extension that takes out his remaining ARB + first two FA years.

[JDW]

With 1 game remaining in April, Nootbaar is hitting .270/.404/.450 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 20 runs, 24 BB-21 K in 29 games. That’s a pace for: 27 HR, 97 RBI, 107 runs, and 129 BB-112 K.

I’d say that’s a pretty good start to the year.

It is a good start to the year.
Let's see where it ends.

If he stays healthy, then it will end w/him getting an extension that takes out his remaining ARB + first two FA years.

Would be great to get at least Noot and Donovan extended past their arb. years.
Start forming that next core.

[rockondlouie]

With 1 game remaining in April, Nootbaar is hitting .270/.404/.450 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 20 runs, 24 BB-21 K in 29 games. That’s a pace for: 27 HR, 97 RBI, 107 runs, and 129 BB-112 K.

I’d say that’s a pretty good start to the year.

It is a good start to the year.
Let's see where it ends.

If he stays healthy, then it will end w/him getting an extension that takes out his remaining ARB + first two FA years.

Would be great to get at least Noot and Donovan extended past their arb. years.
Start forming that next core.

Exactly the two I've been saying will indeed get those extensions JDW.

They're the "older" young core players and team leaders you build around as NADO and then WillyC play out their deals.

[Bomber1]

With 1 game remaining in April, Nootbaar is hitting .270/.404/.450 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 20 runs, 24 BB-21 K in 29 games. That’s a pace for: 27 HR, 97 RBI, 107 runs, and 129 BB-112 K.

I’d say that’s a pretty good start to the year.

Good for Nootbaar!

I like his attitude and athleticism, my issue with him in the past has been his inability to stay healthy long enough to compile strong counting numbers.

To this point he’s been a beast.

Let’s all hope his health holds.

[renostl]

With 1 game remaining in April, Nootbaar is hitting .270/.404/.450 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 20 runs, 24 BB-21 K in 29 games. That’s a pace for: 27 HR, 97 RBI, 107 runs, and 129 BB-112 K.

I’d say that’s a pretty good start to the year.

It is a good start to the year.
Let's see where it ends.

Go down swinging.

There isn't anything that he is doing that is out of his career range

He'll exceed 250 TB.
HR% 3.6, XBH% 7.1 Both below his career highs.

He's focused on staying on the field. Odd that you would rather be correct
than see 2 of the 3 outfield positions filled after all this time. The other has
a backup plan. There is a legit 4 player rotation in the system.

[Handsomebachelor]

More walks than Ks is a gnarly stat for anyone to have. What's the odds of that

[Futuregm2]

More walks than Ks is a gnarly stat for anyone to have. What's the odds of that

Yep, very similar to Juan Soto. Yes it’s only one month.

Soto has 3 HR 12 RBI 21 runs 23 BB-20 K for the Mets. And Noot outpaces him in batting line.

Also Noot isn’t the only Cardinal with more walks than K’s. Arenado has 14 BB-9 K in 122 PA.

[Melville]

With 1 game remaining in April, Nootbaar is hitting .270/.404/.450 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 20 runs, 24 BB-21 K in 29 games. That’s a pace for: 27 HR, 97 RBI, 107 runs, and 129 BB-112 K.

I’d say that’s a pretty good start to the year.

It is a good start to the year.
Let's see where it ends.

Go down swinging.

There isn't anything that he is doing that is out of his career range

He'll exceed 250 TB.
HR% 3.6, XBH% 7.1 Both below his career highs.

He's focused on staying on the field. Odd that you would rather be correct
than see 2 of the 3 outfield positions filled after all this time. The other has
a backup plan. There is a legit 4 player rotation in the system.

I am never for or against any player.
I simply do facts.
It would be idiocy for anyone to draw conclusions from the first month of Mootbaar's season and overlook the prior 3 full seasons of repeatedly failing to meet even minimum expectations.
As I said, let's see where it ends.
And no, the outfield situation is far from resolved.
Nearly everyone made a rush to judgement in 2021, proclaiming the team had created an elite outfield for years to come.
I was the ONLY person on the forum at the time who correctly analyzed the outfield would prove to be a weakness.
I recommend that you - and everyone - wait for my judgement concerning this group.
Currently, I believe they have a CF fixture for the next several years in Scott.
Walker remains very much an open question.
Mootbaar is Mootbaar - a handy role player, best suited to be part of a match-up rotation, but never a long term core piece of a contending roster.
He remains at this moment just as he has been in the past - zero noteworthy difference.
His .254 BA is in-line with his career number, and he continues to pursue walks as his priority.
His SLG in 2025 matches his career rate perfectly.
Slightly below average defender.
Average base runner for an outfielder.

[Goldfan]

Perfect leadoff if healthy

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

40%+ OBP at the end of the season over 125 games played. That would be a tremendous season. He's 22 overall in MLB OBP. He is the best leadoff hitter the Cardinals have had in a long long while.

80+ runs scored
20 HRs

[riff raff]

With 1 game remaining in April, Nootbaar is hitting .270/.404/.450 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 20 runs, 24 BB-21 K in 29 games. That’s a pace for: 27 HR, 97 RBI, 107 runs, and 129 BB-112 K.

I’d say that’s a pretty good start to the year.

It is a good start to the year.
Let's see where it ends.

Go down swinging.

There isn't anything that he is doing that is out of his career range

He'll exceed 250 TB.
HR% 3.6, XBH% 7.1 Both below his career highs.

He's focused on staying on the field. Odd that you would rather be correct
than see 2 of the 3 outfield positions filled after all this time. The other has
a backup plan. There is a legit 4 player rotation in the system.

I am never for or against any player.
I simply do facts.
It would be idiocy for anyone to draw conclusions from the first month of Mootbaar's season and overlook the prior 3 full seasons of repeatedly failing to meet even minimum expectations.
As I said, let's see where it ends.
And no, the outfield situation is far from resolved.
Nearly everyone made a rush to judgement in 2021, proclaiming the team had created an elite outfield for years to come.
I was the ONLY person on the forum at the time who correctly analyzed the outfield would prove to be a weakness.
I recommend that you - and everyone - wait for my judgement concerning this group.
Currently, I believe they have a CF fixture for the next several years in Scott.
Walker remains very much an open question.
Mootbaar is Mootbaar - a handy role player, best suited to be part of a match-up rotation, but never a long term core piece of a contending roster.
He remains at this moment just as he has been in the past - zero noteworthy difference.
His .254 BA is in-line with his career number, and he continues to pursue walks as his priority.
His SLG in 2025 matches his career rate perfectly.
Slightly below average defender.
Average base runner for an outfielder.

Bless your heart.
I can't believe I actually read all that. What a mistake

[Ozziesfan41]

With 1 game remaining in April, Nootbaar is hitting .270/.404/.450 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 20 runs, 24 BB-21 K in 29 games. That’s a pace for: 27 HR, 97 RBI, 107 runs, and 129 BB-112 K.

I’d say that’s a pretty good start to the year.

It is a good start to the year.
Let's see where it ends.

Go down swinging.

There isn't anything that he is doing that is out of his career range

He'll exceed 250 TB.
HR% 3.6, XBH% 7.1 Both below his career highs.

He's focused on staying on the field. Odd that you would rather be correct
than see 2 of the 3 outfield positions filled after all this time. The other has
a backup plan. There is a legit 4 player rotation in the system.

I am never for or against any player.
I simply do facts.
It would be idiocy for anyone to draw conclusions from the first month of Mootbaar's season and overlook the prior 3 full seasons of repeatedly failing to meet even minimum expectations.
As I said, let's see where it ends.
And no, the outfield situation is far from resolved.
Nearly everyone made a rush to judgement in 2021, proclaiming the team had created an elite outfield for years to come.
I was the ONLY person on the forum at the time who correctly analyzed the outfield would prove to be a weakness.
I recommend that you - and everyone - wait for my judgement concerning this group.
Currently, I believe they have a CF fixture for the next several years in Scott.
Walker remains very much an open question.
Mootbaar is Mootbaar - a handy role player, best suited to be part of a match-up rotation, but never a long term core piece of a contending roster.
He remains at this moment just as he has been in the past - zero noteworthy difference.
His .254 BA is in-line with his career number, and he continues to pursue walks as his priority.
His SLG in 2025 matches his career rate perfectly.
Slightly below average defender.
Average base runner for an outfielder.

What’s wrong with walks? Is there something wrong with a lead off man who has a .389 OBP? Who also leads the team in homeruns runs and rbi? You’re wrong of course but your will double triple quadruple down on being wrong like you did with Arenado