What would be a "breakout season" for Lars Nootbaar

[imadangman]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

[scoutyjones2]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Healthy all year. The talent is there

[Carp4Cy]

.850 ops for 600 PAs.

[greyhawk]

playing at least 130 games

[imadangman]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Healthy all year. The talent is there

If he does stay healthy I don't doubt the numbers would be solid (enough). Would you expect him to repeat it for multiple years. I still think we are talking about just a fine player, not some super star that is just too hot to handle.

[Carp4Cy]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Healthy all year. The talent is there

If he does stay healthy I don't doubt the numbers would be solid (enough). Would you expect him to repeat it for multiple years. I still think we are talking about just a fine player, not some super star that is just too hot to handle.

So Ryan Ludwick ?

[imadangman]

playing at least 130 games

Come on let's predict more than that. How many HRs, OBP, OPS, etc.

[imadangman]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Healthy all year. The talent is there

If he does stay healthy I don't doubt the numbers would be solid (enough). Would you expect him to repeat it for multiple years. I still think we are talking about just a fine player, not some super star that is just too hot to handle.

So Ryan Ludwick ?

That about sums up Ludwick's career, but Ludwick at least had a peak season. What would be an example of a "peak season" for Lars? That's the question I'm asking.

[imadangman]

IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

[Quincy Varnish]

IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

Sounds about right, but it’s tough to project games played. That’s what makes 5-year projections tricky, to put it lightly.

[greyhawk]

playing at least 130 games

Come on let's predict more than that. How many HRs, OBP, OPS, etc.

well that's a huge deal --- i think if he manages to play 130 games his numbers will protract out to exactly what he has been doing in his 50-60 game spurts of being able to play.

[imadangman]

IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

Sounds about right, but it’s tough to project games played. That’s what makes 5-year projections tricky, to put it lightly.

My point is there is a chance Nootbaar doesn't do anything that we couldn't just get present day JD Drew to roll out of bed and do right now.

[scoutyjones2]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Healthy all year. The talent is there

If he does stay healthy I don't doubt the numbers would be solid (enough). Would you expect him to repeat it for multiple years. I still think we are talking about just a fine player, not some super star that is just too hot to handle.

He's got a stay healthy and people will be happy...even those of us on CT!

[Melville]

IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

Over the past 3 full MLB seasons, he has averaged 13 HR.
And 44 RBI.
And 55 runs.
With a .245 BA.
Absolutely awful for a starting LF.
What would a breakout season look like?
.250, with 15 HR, 60 RBI, 65 runs.
His "breakout" would be therefore an improvement to "mediocre".

[Ozziesfan41]

140 games. If he can play and be healthy for 140 games the numbers will be there his problem is every time he starts raking he gets hurt misses time comes back starts off slow shakes the rust off starts raking then gets hurt again

[imadangman]

playing at least 130 games

Come on let's predict more than that. How many HRs, OBP, OPS, etc.

well that's a huge deal --- i think if he manages to play 130 games his numbers will protract out to exactly what he has been doing in his 50-60 game spurts of being able to play.

This seems to be the sentiment. I'm trying to direct this thread towards the few on here who seem to tell us how we all just don't understand how good Lars truly is. Maybe some will chime in. I'd love to see one of these Lars homers come on and give a prediction.