What would be a "breakout season" for Lars Nootbaar

[imadangman]

IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

Over the past 3 full MLB seasons, he has averaged 13 HR.
And 44 RBI.
And 55 runs.
With a .245 BA.
Absolutely awful for a starting LF.
What would a breakout season look like?
.250, with 15 HR, 60 RBI, 65 runs.
His "breakout" would be therefore an improvement to "mediocre".

And keep in mind this is a corner outfielder. Not in any way is this player to be considered a "centerfielder"

[ramfandan]

Keeping his tumbles over the dugout railing under his days missed of the 162 !

[Melville]

IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

Over the past 3 full MLB seasons, he has averaged 13 HR.
And 44 RBI.
And 55 runs.
With a .245 BA.
Absolutely awful for a starting LF.
What would a breakout season look like?
.250, with 15 HR, 60 RBI, 65 runs.
His "breakout" would be therefore an improvement to "mediocre".

And keep in mind this is a corner outfielder. Not in any way is this player to be considered a "centerfielder"

Mootbaar has played 768 innings in Cf in his career - the equivalent of 85 games.
He rates at -12 runs per season as a CF, compared to average.
12 runs worse the adequate - and he is getting worse.
You are correct - he should never be considered as a CF, and certainly nothing more than an emergency fill-in for a few innings.
Bottom line.
If he improves this season as I detailed above, Lars The Human Sushi-baar would manage to achieve mediocrity as a LF.
Super Slo Mo's perfect player: sustainable mediocrity.

[JuanAgosto]

Breakout season? 18-25 hrs with 65 rbi. In actuality, I'd be impressed if he simply plays on a consistent basis. But he will probably fall off the dugout rail, injure himself pissing, or get his (donkey) kicked by Fredbird.

[Futuregm2]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Peak
GP: 145
WAR: 5-6
HR: 25
OBP: .390
OPS: .875
Comp: Bryan Reynolds with more OBP

Average next 5 years
GP: 130
WAR: 3
HR: 20
OBP: .370
OPS: .815

[hilton head is 4 idiots]

IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

Over the past 3 full MLB seasons, he has averaged 13 HR.
And 44 RBI.
And 55 runs.
With a .245 BA.
Absolutely awful for a starting LF.
What would a breakout season look like?
.250, with 15 HR, 60 RBI, 65 runs.
His "breakout" would be therefore an improvement to "mediocre".

And keep in mind this is a corner outfielder. Not in any way is this player to be considered a "centerfielder"

Mootbaar has played 768 innings in Cf in his career - the equivalent of 85 games.
He rates at -12 runs per season as a CF, compared to average.
12 runs worse the adequate - and he is getting worse.
You are correct - he should never be considered as a CF, and certainly nothing more than an emergency fill-in for a few innings.
Bottom line.
If he improves this season as I detailed above, Lars The Human Sushi-baar would manage to achieve mediocrity as a LF.
Super Slo Mo's perfect player: sustainable mediocrity.

Of course your dishonesty prohibits you from being accurate in saying because of injuries, Nootbaar has played in 334 games which basically the equivalent of 2 full 162 game seasons plus 10 extra games.

I know you saw Nootbaar's per 162 game stats, so let me include the numbers your BIASED AGENDA wouldn't allow you to post.

Per 162 game stats for Nootbaar:

Runs 81
Hits 127

EXTRA BASE HITS 50
Doubles 28
Triples 3
HRS 19
RBIS 64

It is very easy to understand what a great contributor Nootbaar is to the Redbird offense when healthy, and why he would be a starter on 28 of the 30 teams in MLB.

[Quincy Varnish]

IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

Sounds about right, but it’s tough to project games played. That’s what makes 5-year projections tricky, to put it lightly.

My point is there is a chance Nootbaar doesn't do anything that we couldn't just get present day JD Drew to roll out of bed and do right now.

JD Drew is almost 50.

In his 13 complete seasons, he averaged a shade over 3 WAR/yr. Somehow he could do that now?

What’s so wrong w/ averaging 3 WAR?

[Ozziesfan41]

IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

Over the past 3 full MLB seasons, he has averaged 13 HR.
And 44 RBI.
And 55 runs.
With a .245 BA.
Absolutely awful for a starting LF.
What would a breakout season look like?
.250, with 15 HR, 60 RBI, 65 runs.
His "breakout" would be therefore an improvement to "mediocre".

And keep in mind this is a corner outfielder. Not in any way is this player to be considered a "centerfielder"

Mootbaar has played 768 innings in Cf in his career - the equivalent of 85 games.
He rates at -12 runs per season as a CF, compared to average.
12 runs worse the adequate - and he is getting worse.
You are correct - he should never be considered as a CF, and certainly nothing more than an emergency fill-in for a few innings.
Bottom line.
If he improves this season as I detailed above, Lars The Human Sushi-baar would manage to achieve mediocrity as a LF.
Super Slo Mo's perfect player: sustainable mediocrity.

Of course your dishonesty prohibits you from being accurate in saying because of injuries, Nootbaar has played in 334 games which basically the equivalent of 2 full 162 game seasons plus 10 extra games.

I know you saw Nootbaar's per 162 game stats, so let me include the numbers your BIASED AGENDA wouldn't allow you to post.

Per 162 game stats for Nootbaar:

Runs 81
Hits 127

EXTRA BASE HITS 50
Doubles 28
Triples 3
HRS 19
RBIS 64

It is very easy to understand what a great contributor Nootbaar is to the Redbird offense when healthy, and why he would be a starter on 28 of the 30 teams in MLB.

Mels also silly enough to believe that if a player isn’t on the IL then he should be 100% and play like it. Noot started the season with fractured ribs. Wasn’t able to swing the bat so when he came back of course he struggled he had to shake the rust off from not being able to face live pitching. Then when he finally got back up to game speed he took off and hit .275 .370 .475 .845 then oblique injury. He came back from it and of course struggled because just about every player who has an oblique comes back slow to recover. When he recovered he took off again closing out healthy and hitting .290 .421 .565 .986. Now I don’t know if he will be able to stay healthy for a full season but if he does and plays 140 games his numbers will be very good but the question is will he stay healthy

[CardsBest]

Please dont use the word break in the same sentence as Noot. A good season for him would be a healthy one. He has to remain on the field.

[hilton head is 4 idiots]

IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

Over the past 3 full MLB seasons, he has averaged 13 HR.
And 44 RBI.
And 55 runs.
With a .245 BA.
Absolutely awful for a starting LF.
What would a breakout season look like?
.250, with 15 HR, 60 RBI, 65 runs.
His "breakout" would be therefore an improvement to "mediocre".

And keep in mind this is a corner outfielder. Not in any way is this player to be considered a "centerfielder"

Mootbaar has played 768 innings in Cf in his career - the equivalent of 85 games.
He rates at -12 runs per season as a CF, compared to average.
12 runs worse the adequate - and he is getting worse.
You are correct - he should never be considered as a CF, and certainly nothing more than an emergency fill-in for a few innings.
Bottom line.
If he improves this season as I detailed above, Lars The Human Sushi-baar would manage to achieve mediocrity as a LF.
Super Slo Mo's perfect player: sustainable mediocrity.

Of course your dishonesty prohibits you from being accurate in saying because of injuries, Nootbaar has played in 334 games which basically the equivalent of 2 full 162 game seasons plus 10 extra games.

I know you saw Nootbaar's per 162 game stats, so let me include the numbers your BIASED AGENDA wouldn't allow you to post.

Per 162 game stats for Nootbaar:

Runs 81
Hits 127

EXTRA BASE HITS 50
Doubles 28
Triples 3
HRS 19
RBIS 64

It is very easy to understand what a great contributor Nootbaar is to the Redbird offense when healthy, and why he would be a starter on 28 of the 30 teams in MLB.

Mels also silly enough to believe that if a player isn’t on the IL then he should be 100% and play like it. Noot started the season with fractured ribs. Wasn’t able to swing the bat so when he came back of course he struggled he had to shake the rust off from not being able to face live pitching. Then when he finally got back up to game speed he took off and hit .275 .370 .475 .845 then oblique injury. He came back from it and of course struggled because just about every player who has an oblique comes back slow to recover. When he recovered he took off again closing out healthy and hitting .290 .421 .565 .986. Now I don’t know if he will be able to stay healthy for a full season but if he does and plays 140 games his numbers will be very good but the question is will he stay healthy

True Ozzie, and even the biggest Nootbaar fans admit he needs vast improvement in health and durability.

But no dispute; when he is healthy he produces.

[JohnnyMO]

IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

Your peak season looks good, I don’t think his average will be that good

[hilton head is 4 idiots]

IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

Your peak season looks good, I don’t think his average will be that good

The ability is there, just depends on his health.

[cardsrmyteam]

Dream, dream, dream, dream
Dream, dream, dream, dream

[icon]

Nootbaar is an if every season. Still a big if.

[IndCard75]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

I’m not as high on Nootbar as others. Personally I think he’s a 4th OF on a playoff team. I would project him to do this on average the next 5 years.
130 GP 2.0 war 18 HR 320 OBP 750 ops
I think by next year he gets squeezed out of a starting spot. Next year we will have Wetherholt starting at 2B and Donovan will play over Noot in LF. Scott will be starting in CF. If Noot stays healthy this year then I package him in a trade for prospects.

[icon]

I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

I’m not as high on Nootbar as others. Personally I think he’s a 4th OF on a playoff team. I would project him to do this on average the next 5 years.
130 GP 2.0 war 18 HR 320 OBP 750 ops
I think by next year he gets squeezed out of a starting spot. Next year we will have Wetherholt starting at 2B and Donovan will play over Noot in LF. Scott will be starting in CF. If Noot stays healthy this year then I package him in a trade for prospects.

Donovan is not an everyday corner OF, either. Not enough power and has zero power vs. LHP -- no career HRs vs. lefties. He's a platoon guy for a corner OF spot at best. Still not enough power overall.