CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

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Quincy Varnish
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

Post by Quincy Varnish »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 01 May 2024 11:48 amI would honestly say that I consider mlb.com's prospect rankings to be about the least reliable compared to a lot of other typical sources.
Okay. Why?
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

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Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 10:36 am He was MLB’s #48 overall prospect heading into 2024. Who are the 9 Brewers dudes that FG has ahead of him?
4 of the 9 have an ETA of 2026 or later. I view those lists more "ceiling over proximity".
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

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An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 12:23 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 10:36 am He was MLB’s #48 overall prospect heading into 2024. Who are the 9 Brewers dudes that FG has ahead of him?
4 of the 9 have an ETA of 2026 or later. I view those lists more "ceiling over proximity".
Closer to Baseball Prospectus-type ranking, maybe? I don’t pay much attention to what FG has to say about prospects…
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

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Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 12:31 pm
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 12:23 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 10:36 am He was MLB’s #48 overall prospect heading into 2024. Who are the 9 Brewers dudes that FG has ahead of him?
4 of the 9 have an ETA of 2026 or later. I view those lists more "ceiling over proximity".
Closer to Baseball Prospectus-type ranking, maybe? I don’t pay much attention to what FG has to say about prospects…
I'll put it this way... he'd probably rank a little but not much higher if he had a defensive home, but he doesn't have enough power for corner IF so he's probably a super utility type of guy like Donovan.
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

Post by Quincy Varnish »

An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 12:39 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 12:31 pm
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 12:23 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 10:36 am He was MLB’s #48 overall prospect heading into 2024. Who are the 9 Brewers dudes that FG has ahead of him?
4 of the 9 have an ETA of 2026 or later. I view those lists more "ceiling over proximity".
Closer to Baseball Prospectus-type ranking, maybe? I don’t pay much attention to what FG has to say about prospects…
I'll put it this way... he'd probably rank a little but not much higher if he had a defensive home, but he doesn't have enough power for corner IF so he's probably a super utility type of guy like Donovan.
I was mostly asking about FG’s methodology and what is wrong with it, despite Matt’s assurances they are l33t. You’re the prospect geek.
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

Post by Quincy Varnish »

Barking Lion wrote: 01 May 2024 12:45 pmI prefer Fantrax's chart of upcoming starters over the dots and having to roll through the daily lineups. Yahoo is a little laggy for me. But thanks for the tip. I may have to use it.

As for "the trade," I think you have your offer to me confused with someone else. I never had Lindor to trade. Sewald will be back within a few weeks and will have plenty of saves by the end of the season. Like I said, I'm patient. Too often, I have fallen in love with early production and regretted it in the second half.
No, I am not confused. I mentioned the Lindor/Steer trade to explain how I valued Steer, and how most people would.

You tried to offer me Jansen for Steer, but now you think he’s only worth Patrick Bailey??
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

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mattmitchl44 wrote: 01 May 2024 12:57 pm
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 12:23 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 10:36 am He was MLB’s #48 overall prospect heading into 2024. Who are the 9 Brewers dudes that FG has ahead of him?
4 of the 9 have an ETA of 2026 or later. I view those lists more "ceiling over proximity".
I agree that every prospect list probably has its own balance between ceiling, floor, and proximity to the majors.

But IF you believe FG's future value for Black of 40+, that basically projects, per their ranking system, as between bench player and platoon player.

So, IF you believe FG, he's close to probably being a bench player in the majors this season (maybe developing into a platoon player in a couple of years).
Kind of... team fits matter. It's why the Orioles' prospects don't have much fantasy value because opportunity matters, too. Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad are better prospects but Tyler Black and Jordan Beck might be better fantasy players in 2024.

In a deep league like ours, 15 teams and 11 lineup spots, a high volume utility guy can have more value than you'd think... but probably takes some minding so you're catching them on their platoon strengths.
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

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Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 10:52 am
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 10:26 am :lol:

There's a guy in my 12 team money league that would rival you in number of moves / trades. It's pretty funny. All a prospect has to do is breathe and get called up for him to roster him. One bad game gets them jettisoned.
I haven’t been chasing after many prospects, at least not like that. The guys that I’ve picked up that could be considered “fringy” aren’t lottery tickets, and serve a purpose - like Knack… warm body in the Dodgers rotation could give me Ws. Anyway, I’d rather not be cycling through so many players… it’s going to slow down when I get caught up in IP.
It's funny... he can't help himself. He currently has all of the following rostered:

Brice Turang
Tyler Black
Colton Cowser
Wenceel Perez
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Jackson Merrill
Jacob Young
Jasson Dominguez
Cade Horton

That's a lot of "hope"
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

Post by Quincy Varnish »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 01 May 2024 12:57 pm
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 12:23 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 10:36 am He was MLB’s #48 overall prospect heading into 2024. Who are the 9 Brewers dudes that FG has ahead of him?
4 of the 9 have an ETA of 2026 or later. I view those lists more "ceiling over proximity".
I agree that every prospect list probably has its own balance between ceiling, floor, and proximity to the majors.

But IF you believe FG's future value for Black of 40+, that basically projects, per their ranking system, as between bench player and platoon player.

So, IF you believe FG, he's close to probably being a bench player in the majors this season (maybe developing into a platoon player in a couple of years).
Or IF you believe the Milwaukee Brewers evaluation of his value, it MIGHT be informed by the fact he’s batting 4th in their lineup today.
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

Post by Quincy Varnish »

An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 13:37 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 10:52 am
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 10:26 am :lol:

There's a guy in my 12 team money league that would rival you in number of moves / trades. It's pretty funny. All a prospect has to do is breathe and get called up for him to roster him. One bad game gets them jettisoned.
I haven’t been chasing after many prospects, at least not like that. The guys that I’ve picked up that could be considered “fringy” aren’t lottery tickets, and serve a purpose - like Knack… warm body in the Dodgers rotation could give me Ws. Anyway, I’d rather not be cycling through so many players… it’s going to slow down when I get caught up in IP.
It's funny... he can't help himself. He currently has all of the following rostered:

Brice Turang
Tyler Black
Colton Cowser
Wenceel Perez
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Jackson Merrill
Jacob Young
Jasson Dominguez
Cade Horton

That's a lot of "hope"
Yeah I think you’ve mentioned this guy before. It gets worse as the year drags on, right? At least he has Cowser…he’s legit.
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

Post by An Old Friend »

Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 13:57 pm
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 13:37 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 10:52 am
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 10:26 am :lol:

There's a guy in my 12 team money league that would rival you in number of moves / trades. It's pretty funny. All a prospect has to do is breathe and get called up for him to roster him. One bad game gets them jettisoned.
I haven’t been chasing after many prospects, at least not like that. The guys that I’ve picked up that could be considered “fringy” aren’t lottery tickets, and serve a purpose - like Knack… warm body in the Dodgers rotation could give me Ws. Anyway, I’d rather not be cycling through so many players… it’s going to slow down when I get caught up in IP.
It's funny... he can't help himself. He currently has all of the following rostered:

Brice Turang
Tyler Black
Colton Cowser
Wenceel Perez
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Jackson Merrill
Jacob Young
Jasson Dominguez
Cade Horton

That's a lot of "hope"
Yeah I think you’ve mentioned this guy before. It gets worse as the year drags on, right? At least he has Cowser…he’s legit.
It's a totally schizo approach, no strategy whatsoever.

He dropped Jordan Westburg on 4/5 for Eugenio Suarez (currently a FA)

Some of his other moves:
Dropped Michael Conforto for Justin Foscue
Dropped Michael Busch for Ryan Mountcastle
Dropped Ryan Mountcastle for Kevin Ginkel (same day as adding Mountcastle)
Dropped Justin Foscue for Jeremy Pena
Dropped Jeremy Pena for Cody Bradford (next day)
Dropped Ryan Mountcastle for Brett Baty (he'd dropped Mountcastle on 3/31, added back 4/2, then this on 4/7)
Dropped Brett Baty for Oliver Dunn (same day)
Dropped Andy Pages for Pete Crow-Armstrong

His churn is insane and is only held in check by our limit of 3 transactions per week.
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

Post by Quincy Varnish »

An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 14:19 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 13:57 pm
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 13:37 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 10:52 am
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 10:26 am :lol:

There's a guy in my 12 team money league that would rival you in number of moves / trades. It's pretty funny. All a prospect has to do is breathe and get called up for him to roster him. One bad game gets them jettisoned.
I haven’t been chasing after many prospects, at least not like that. The guys that I’ve picked up that could be considered “fringy” aren’t lottery tickets, and serve a purpose - like Knack… warm body in the Dodgers rotation could give me Ws. Anyway, I’d rather not be cycling through so many players… it’s going to slow down when I get caught up in IP.
It's funny... he can't help himself. He currently has all of the following rostered:

Brice Turang
Tyler Black
Colton Cowser
Wenceel Perez
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Jackson Merrill
Jacob Young
Jasson Dominguez
Cade Horton

That's a lot of "hope"
Yeah I think you’ve mentioned this guy before. It gets worse as the year drags on, right? At least he has Cowser…he’s legit.
It's a totally schizo approach, no strategy whatsoever.

He dropped Jordan Westburg on 4/5 for Eugenio Suarez (currently a FA)

Some of his other moves:
Dropped Michael Conforto for Justin Foscue
Dropped Michael Busch for Ryan Mountcastle
Dropped Ryan Mountcastle for Kevin Ginkel (same day as adding Mountcastle)
Dropped Justin Foscue for Jeremy Pena
Dropped Jeremy Pena for Cody Bradford (next day)
Dropped Ryan Mountcastle for Brett Baty (he'd dropped Mountcastle on 3/31, added back 4/2, then this on 4/7)
Dropped Brett Baty for Oliver Dunn (same day)
Dropped Andy Pages for Pete Crow-Armstrong

His churn is insane and is only held in check by our limit of 3 transactions per week.
Yikes. Peña is probably the only useful player in all that mess after Sewald comes back.

How deep is that league?
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

Post by An Old Friend »

Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 15:01 pm
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 14:19 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 13:57 pm
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 13:37 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 10:52 am
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 10:26 am :lol:

There's a guy in my 12 team money league that would rival you in number of moves / trades. It's pretty funny. All a prospect has to do is breathe and get called up for him to roster him. One bad game gets them jettisoned.
I haven’t been chasing after many prospects, at least not like that. The guys that I’ve picked up that could be considered “fringy” aren’t lottery tickets, and serve a purpose - like Knack… warm body in the Dodgers rotation could give me Ws. Anyway, I’d rather not be cycling through so many players… it’s going to slow down when I get caught up in IP.
It's funny... he can't help himself. He currently has all of the following rostered:

Brice Turang
Tyler Black
Colton Cowser
Wenceel Perez
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Jackson Merrill
Jacob Young
Jasson Dominguez
Cade Horton

That's a lot of "hope"
Yeah I think you’ve mentioned this guy before. It gets worse as the year drags on, right? At least he has Cowser…he’s legit.
It's a totally schizo approach, no strategy whatsoever.

He dropped Jordan Westburg on 4/5 for Eugenio Suarez (currently a FA)

Some of his other moves:
Dropped Michael Conforto for Justin Foscue
Dropped Michael Busch for Ryan Mountcastle
Dropped Ryan Mountcastle for Kevin Ginkel (same day as adding Mountcastle)
Dropped Justin Foscue for Jeremy Pena
Dropped Jeremy Pena for Cody Bradford (next day)
Dropped Ryan Mountcastle for Brett Baty (he'd dropped Mountcastle on 3/31, added back 4/2, then this on 4/7)
Dropped Brett Baty for Oliver Dunn (same day)
Dropped Andy Pages for Pete Crow-Armstrong

His churn is insane and is only held in check by our limit of 3 transactions per week.
Yikes. Peña is probably the only useful player in all that mess after Sewald comes back.

How deep is that league?
12 teams. It's so dumb, he always has some guys that are useful that he's first on but then doesn't extract any value. Pages, Mountcastle, Conforto, and Busch are all rostered and playable.
Quincy Varnish
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

Post by Quincy Varnish »

An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 15:13 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 15:01 pmYikes. Peña is probably the only useful player in all that mess after Sewald comes back.

How deep is that league?
12 teams. It's so dumb, he always has some guys that are useful that he's first on but then doesn't extract any value. Pages, Mountcastle, Conforto, and Busch are all rostered and playable.
Ya… I was thinking of players he might actually still have 😂

Don’t think I’ve made any seriously regrettable drops yet.. though Grissom could be good, I didn’t have the IL space. Adell could finally be something, but the Angels are ruined.
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

Post by An Old Friend »

Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 15:28 pm
An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 15:13 pm
Quincy Varnish wrote: 01 May 2024 15:01 pmYikes. Peña is probably the only useful player in all that mess after Sewald comes back.

How deep is that league?
12 teams. It's so dumb, he always has some guys that are useful that he's first on but then doesn't extract any value. Pages, Mountcastle, Conforto, and Busch are all rostered and playable.
Ya… I was thinking of players he might actually still have 😂

Don’t think I’ve made any seriously regrettable drops yet.. though Grissom could be good, I didn’t have the IL space. Adell could finally be something, but the Angels are ruined.
It's crazy, feels like Adell has been around forever but still relatively young. It'll be interesting to see if they let him keep running since he gets thrown out quite often. Feels like they're probably in F-it mode.

I don't have any regrettable drops in our league... just regrettable drafted relievers (Alzolay, Lange). :x
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Re: CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

Post by Quincy Varnish »

An Old Friend wrote: 01 May 2024 16:10 pm It's crazy, feels like Adell has been around forever but still relatively young. It'll be interesting to see if they let him keep running since he gets thrown out quite often. Feels like they're probably in F-it mode.

I don't have any regrettable drops in our league... just regrettable drafted relievers (Alzolay, Lange). :x
Adell was 1% rostered when I picked him up a couple of weeks ago… now at 37% and rising. Must be my magic touch.

He’s probably up for good w/ Trout out, and he’s out of options. He’ll have 8 years wearing a major league uniform before FA?
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