what if the cards had extended walker?

[jbrach]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

[Ozziesfan41]

Man if they operate their entire organization doing crazy things like saying well this prospect struggled and if we had signed him to an early extension it would have been bad so we had better never ever sign a player to an early extension or say we had better not sign any free agents to big contracts because teams have done it and the contracts turned out bad then my god it will be a poorly run organization

[Ronnie Dobbs]

Cool, unique point.

[OPO]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Sometimes things can be forecasted with some degree of confidence, Weatherholt fits the bill for having confidence predicting his future.

He was taken in the 5 spot as a polished college hitter with exceptionally high baseball acumen both at the plate and in the field.

Walker was more of a raw specimen of intrigue with predictable concerns in the field and at the plate.

Very different cases.

Of course there’s always bit of a gamble with any signing. Extending young because of the unknown and signing veterans prone to decline and injuries and often get overpaid for what they’ve done not what they will.

[RamFan08NY]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

I actually think extending Walker right now would actually be a good idea. He's only 23. If/when he figures it out he may be a very solid player. Extending him now, after his horrible start would come cheap.
Think of it this way, a player like Tucker got 60 mil. That sets the bar for "good" players in the 25, 30 range. If you get walker signed to something like a 5/40 deal, I think it could be a buy low signing. Is there risk? Yea, there's risk with most contracts signed.

[mattmitchl44]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Again, when you are doing these extensions early for young players at maybe $10, $12 million AAV, they simply aren't big enough to be "disasters" for the team.

"Disasters" are when you sign a veteran for $25+ million in AAV and they turn out to be worthless due to age, injury, etc.

And there is no approach you can take which is going to avoid "misses" 100% of the time. You are always taking risk - no matter how much you think you "know what you have" when you sign any player to a long, guaranteed contract.

[sikeston bulldog2]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Again, when you are doing these extensions early for young players at maybe $10, $12 million AAV, they simply aren't big enough to be "disasters" for the team.

"Disasters" are when you sign a veteran for $25+ million in AAV and they turn out to be worthless due to age, injury, etc.

And there is no approach you can take which is going to avoid "misses" 100% of the time. You are always taking risk - no matter how much you think you "know what you have" when you sign any player to a long, guaranteed contract.

Couldn’t I do Winn as well. His glove and arm will play throughout the extension. He’s gonna be our shortstop whether you extend now, or hopefully resign.

[mattmitchl44]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Again, when you are doing these extensions early for young players at maybe $10, $12 million AAV, they simply aren't big enough to be "disasters" for the team.

"Disasters" are when you sign a veteran for $25+ million in AAV and they turn out to be worthless due to age, injury, etc.

And there is no approach you can take which is going to avoid "misses" 100% of the time. You are always taking risk - no matter how much you think you "know what you have" when you sign any player to a long, guaranteed contract.

Couldn’t I do Winn as well. His glove and arm will play throughout the extension. He’s gonna be our shortstop whether you extend now, or hopefully resign.

At the right price, I think you could think about Winn, Burleson, Liberatore, and Herrera.

As I've noted before, anybody who you project to be:

(1) a SP in your rotation
(2) a starting position player, at least to the point of being the LH hitting, 400+ PA strong side of a platoon, or
(3) your closer

should be pursued for a team-friendly extension.

[ecleme22]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Because the guy who would've extended JW was the same guy who had just needlessly extended Miko, pulled Contreras off catcher, gave Motter a one year contract, etc.

Bloom is better...

[mattmitchl44]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Because the guy who would've extended JW was the same guy who had just needlessly extended Miko, pulled Contreras off catcher, gave Motter a one year contract, etc.

Bloom is better...

Yeah, I think we know that the last regime's abilities for player talent/business decision evaluation - given the Mikolas extension, Carpenter extension, last Molina extension, even doing the Goldschmidt extension when they did, overvaluing other players, etc. - had become poor.

If you are just bad at player talent evaluation, no matter who is it, you're doomed.

[TheJackBurton]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

You aren't thinking about all the money they would be saving right now on that bargain of a deal had they extended him after his 3rd at bat in the minors.

[Dazepster]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Because the guy who would've extended JW was the same guy who had just needlessly extended Miko, pulled Contreras off catcher, gave Motter a one year contract, etc.

Bloom is better...

Yeah, I think we know that the last regime's abilities for player talent/business decision evaluation - given the Mikolas extension, Carpenter extension, last Molina extension, even doing the Goldschmidt extension when they did, overvaluing other players, etc. - had become poor.

If you are just bad at player talent evaluation, no matter who is it, you're doomed.

Agree.

The Carp deal was a self inflicted wound for no reason whatsoever. Turned a former fan fave into a villain. At least for me.

[rockondlouie]

This is why it's smarter (IMO) to wait on extending a young player new to MLB until sometime during or even after their Sophomore season.

Certain players (JJW could be one of them) it makes sense to lack them down sometime during or after that second season if he has a strong rookie season.

Others (M. Winn, is he going to just be a great defensive SS w/little to offer at the plate or not) it's better to wait until you have a lot of data and can make a smarter decision.

Neither J. Walker or N. Gorman were they types you wanted to move to early on even after their good initial seasons, too many ???? in their game you could see even then.

[lordoffatness]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Because the guy who would've extended JW was the same guy who had just needlessly extended Miko, pulled Contreras off catcher, gave Motter a one year contract, etc.

Bloom is better...

Yeah, I think we know that the last regime's abilities for player talent/business decision evaluation - given the Mikolas extension, Carpenter extension, last Molina extension, even doing the Goldschmidt extension when they did, overvaluing other players, etc. - had become poor.

If you are just bad at player talent evaluation, no matter who is it, you're doomed.

Not to mention all of those other extensions were when the player was 30+ and you're buying a declining asset. With JJ, you're in theory buying the peak of his career at a discount.

Even the Dejong contract wasn't that bad. The highest salary he had was $9.5 million in 2023. Not ideal, but not a catastrophic deal. That same year we were also paying these guys:
Goldie and Arenado (they were OK, but first down-ish year for each after their amazing 2022 seasons)
Contreras (he was fine)
Mikolas ($20 million)
Wainwright ($17 million)
Matz ($10 million)

Dejong was nowhere near the biggest problem on that roster.

[mattmitchl44]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Because the guy who would've extended JW was the same guy who had just needlessly extended Miko, pulled Contreras off catcher, gave Motter a one year contract, etc.

Bloom is better...

Yeah, I think we know that the last regime's abilities for player talent/business decision evaluation - given the Mikolas extension, Carpenter extension, last Molina extension, even doing the Goldschmidt extension when they did, overvaluing other players, etc. - had become poor.

If you are just bad at player talent evaluation, no matter who is it, you're doomed.

Not to mention all of those other extensions were when the player was 30+ and you're buying a declining asset. With JJ, you're in theory buying the peak of his career at a discount.

Even the Dejong contract wasn't that bad. The highest salary he had was $9.5 million in 2023. Not ideal, but not a catastrophic deal. That same year we were also paying these guys:
Goldie and Arenado (they were OK, but first down-ish year for each after their amazing 2022 seasons)
Contreras (he was fine)
Mikolas ($20 million)
Wainwright ($17 million)
Matz ($10 million)

Dejong was nowhere near the biggest problem on that roster.

Exactly.

These extensions for young players almost all get done so relatively cheaply (DeJong was like $4+ million AAV) that they simply can't be "big misses" that cripple the team's payroll.

Even at, say, $12-$13 million AAV for Wetherholt, if his floor is even a 2-3 fWAR player, it wouldn't be a loss for the team. And if he's a 5+ fWAR player, it's a huge win.

Relative to paying Kyle Tucker 4 yrs./$240 million, Bo Bichette 3 yrs./$126 million, Bregman 5 yrs./$175 million, you can get so, so much more out of committing that money aggressive to young players on the come up.

[renostl]

I see all the talk about extensions for players who have literally no time in the majors or a few at bats...walker was rated by many as the top prospect in baseball as he entered the majors and had a good rookie season...an extension would have been a disaster...need to be careful extending people before you really know what you have

Because the guy who would've extended JW was the same guy who had just needlessly extended Miko, pulled Contreras off catcher, gave Motter a one year contract, etc.

Bloom is better...

Yeah, I think we know that the last regime's abilities for player talent/business decision evaluation - given the Mikolas extension, Carpenter extension, last Molina extension, even doing the Goldschmidt extension when they did, overvaluing other players, etc. - had become poor.

If you are just bad at player talent evaluation, no matter who is it, you're doomed.

Not to mention all of those other extensions were when the player was 30+ and you're buying a declining asset. With JJ, you're in theory buying the peak of his career at a discount.

Even the Dejong contract wasn't that bad. The highest salary he had was $9.5 million in 2023. Not ideal, but not a catastrophic deal. That same year we were also paying these guys:
Goldie and Arenado (they were OK, but first down-ish year for each after their amazing 2022 seasons)
Contreras (he was fine)
Mikolas ($20 million)
Wainwright ($17 million)
Matz ($10 million)

Dejong was nowhere near the biggest problem on that roster.

Exactly.

These extensions for young players almost all get done so relatively cheaply (DeJong was like $4+ million AAV) that they simply can't be "big misses" that cripple the team's payroll.

Even at, say, $12-$13 million AAV for Wetherholt, if his floor is even a 2-3 fWAR player, it wouldn't be a loss for the team. And if he's a 5+ fWAR player, it's a huge win.

Relative to paying Kyle Tucker 4 yrs./$240 million, Bo Bichette 3 yrs./$126 million, Bregman 5 yrs./$175 million, you can get so, so much more out of committing that money aggressive to young players on the come up.

What age season do you think these players will want to hit the free agent market?
There has to be an age that they do not want to cross. This squeezes the contract length
down when dealing with a college player vs a high school player.
Consider PCA and JJW are basically the same age. PCA just signed his extension. It takes him
through his age 30 season. His age 29 and 30 seasons will both cost $30M creating a potential
where the player is difficult to move. The Cubs are paying for that 6 WAR 2025, however
paying him before 2025 had increased question marks. They were able to let it play out. The Cards
won't get the same opportunity with JJW and each year that takes a prime FA age away won't come
at any bargain.

I think, and it is jmo, that as a fan that I need to look more at the ability of keeping a player
than the money. The money savings can also flip to a negative and the money only matters if it
becomes an asset that is spent elsewhere.

In general if it is only about the money letting it play out through the arbitration process is not the worst
strategy in the world. Teams didn't lose in the Soto world, neither did the player who gained so much
by getting to market early, something college players are unable to match.