Blooms lineup bets on the existing "core" in the near term

[Carp4Cy]

If we assume anyone without an 8 figure contract (sorry Nado) is keepable OR tradable - then after 2026, anyone still on this roster who isn't making progress is Blooms problem. Who does he keep and who will we look back and wish he'd traded before they lost whatever remained of their trade value?

Gorman - 426 Games 3.5 career WAR 99 OPS+
Walker - 279 G, -2.7 WAR 88OPS+
Nootbaar - 527 G, 9.3 Career WAR. 109 OPS+ OK that looks decent on paper, but which was is he trending?
Herrera - 203 G, 4 WAR, 127 OPS+ - does he build on this and become a true plus player or is 19 HRs his ceiling?
Burly - 414 G, 2.2 career WAR
Winn - 316 G, 6.5 WAR, outstanding rookie year - have to reasonably assume there's more upside there.
Scott - 191 G, 2.2 WAR
Pages - 180 G, 2.2 WAR

so that's what we have right now - 1 good but not AS yet, some downright awful, several are just pedestrian. All have had more than 162 games tryouts. No one in double digits for career, no one above 4, except Winn. Are we being irrational to just hope and pray and see what we've got for another year and expect that 5 of these 8 can just magically double their production of prior years? And if so, where is the change coming from? Not Oli's MLB staff that hasn't changed from last year's massive failure at the plate. We were 29th in HRs. And our HR leader Willson just got traded.

Compare to recent real hitting talents we've developed:
Pujols - enough said
Molina - 14 WAR by age 28, gg
Carp - 10.4 WAR by age 28, in only 3 seasons.
Drew - 18 WAR by age 27, then traded for Waino
Renteria - 22 WAR by age 27, 17 of those for the Cards, gg
DeJong - 10.6 WAR by age 25 before falling off a cliff
Oneil - 1 year wonder but 6.4 WAR in 1 year at age 26 when healthy - where are our 6 WAR 26 yo's? (not burly)
Jon Jay - 7 WAR his first 3 years with 113 OPS+
Rasmus - 7.4 WAR in 2.5 years before being traded for a WS ring. 110 OPS+
Wong 16.5 WAR by age 28, gg
Bader 11.8 WAR by 28, gg
Edman - 17 WAR by age 28
Donovan - 11 WAR in first 4 seasons, gg

Bloom is stocking up on pitching prospects. Where is the future offense going to come from?
We are excited about Josh Baez maybe, but so far his best year is a 20 HR .884 OPS at age 22. Does that project as a plus MOTOB or just as a servicable starter?
for comps Mike Sirota OPS'd 1.068 so far in the minors. Andy Pages was over .900 and 1.000 at AA/AAA. Heck Walker was over 1.000 at A and .898 at AA at only age 20 and we know how well that's projected into the Majors. Clearly we need more than 2-3 legit hitting prospects including JJW. What does Bloom do for now, and what opportunities will we regret missing?

[scoutyjones2]

[Cardinals4Life]

If we assume anyone without an 8 figure contract (sorry Nado) is keepable OR tradable - then after 2026, anyone still on this roster who isn't making progress is Blooms problem. Who does he keep and who will we look back and wish he'd traded before they lost whatever remained of their trade value?

Gorman - 426 Games 3.5 career WAR 99 OPS+
Walker - 279 G, -2.7 WAR 88OPS+
Nootbaar - 527 G, 9.3 Career WAR. 109 OPS+ OK that looks decent on paper, but which was is he trending?
Herrera - 203 G, 4 WAR, 127 OPS+ - does he build on this and become a true plus player or is 19 HRs his ceiling?
Burly - 414 G, 2.2 career WAR
Winn - 316 G, 6.5 WAR, outstanding rookie year - have to reasonably assume there's more upside there.
Scott - 191 G, 2.2 WAR
Pages - 180 G, 2.2 WAR

so that's what we have right now - 1 good but not AS yet, some downright awful, several are just pedestrian. All have had more than 162 games tryouts. No one in double digits for career, no one above 4, except Winn. Are we being irrational to just hope and pray and see what we've got for another year and expect that 5 of these 8 can just magically double their production of prior years? And if so, where is the change coming from? Not Oli's MLB staff that hasn't changed from last year's massive failure at the plate. We were 29th in HRs. And our HR leader Willson just got traded.

Compare to recent real hitting talents we've developed:
Pujols - enough said
Molina - 14 WAR by age 28, gg
Carp - 10.4 WAR by age 28, in only 3 seasons.
Drew - 18 WAR by age 27, then traded for Waino
Renteria - 22 WAR by age 27, 17 of those for the Cards, gg
DeJong - 10.6 WAR by age 25 before falling off a cliff
Oneil - 1 year wonder but 6.4 WAR in 1 year at age 26 when healthy - where are our 6 WAR 26 yo's? (not burly)
Jon Jay - 7 WAR his first 3 years with 113 OPS+
Rasmus - 7.4 WAR in 2.5 years before being traded for a WS ring. 110 OPS+
Wong 16.5 WAR by age 28, gg
Bader 11.8 WAR by 28, gg
Edman - 17 WAR by age 28
Donovan - 11 WAR in first 4 seasons, gg

Bloom is stocking up on pitching prospects. Where is the future offense going to come from?
We are excited about Josh Baez maybe, but so far his best year is a 20 HR .884 OPS at age 22. Does that project as a plus MOTOB or just as a servicable starter?
for comps Mike Sirota OPS'd 1.068 so far in the minors. Andy Pages was over .900 and 1.000 at AA/AAA. Heck Walker was over 1.000 at A and .898 at AA at only age 20 and we know how well that's projected into the Majors. Clearly we need more than 2-3 legit hitting prospects including JJW. What does Bloom do for now, and what opportunities will we regret missing?

Good post and good questions.
Bottom line is the Cardinals are full of decent complimentary players. However, we lack any lineup "pillars".

I believe JJ will be an offensive pillar and Herrera may develop to a Contreras type level, but the Cardinals are going to have to fill this void from outside the organization - either via trade (a la Goldy/Nado and the Stanton attempt) or through Free Agency, and ponying up some cash -which we have.

Add in 2 pillars along with JJ, then you're looking at a good lineup.

Wetherholt
Herrera
PILLAR
PILLAR
Burleson
Gorman? (Still needs to show more to be even a complimentary piece.)
Walker? (Still needs to show more to be even a complimentary piece)
Winn
Scott II

[rockondlouie]

Since the position players on our current roster are all (we'll exclude JJW) on Mo's POBO resume there's only a few who will likely survive unless they have solid 2026 campaigns.

The keepers, even if they don't light the world on fire in 2026 are:

I. Hererra
M. Winn
A. Burleson (although I'd deal him if the offer justifies it)

A likely keeper unless he has a solid offensive season in 2026 in which case he'd join the above trio & until a suitable replacement can be found is:

VSII

The players who could be dealt with or without solid 2026 seasons are:

L. Nootbar
P. Pages (if he's even on the team when they break from Florida, I have my doubts)

The obvious players C. Bloom will cut the cord on and move on from unless they have solid 2026 seasons are:

J. Walker
N. Gorman

[ecleme22]

Well before we label Bloom as only focusing on pitching, let’s keep in mind he’s made only two trades.

And I wouldn’t be too worried about JW or NG’s value dropping.

Lastly, pitching prospects can be traded.

[Cusecards]

Since the position players on our current roster are all (we'll exclude JJW) on Mo's POBO resume there's only a few who will likely survive unless they have solid 2026 campaigns.

The keepers, even if they don't light the world on fire in 2026 are:

I. Hererra
M. Winn
A. Burleson (although I'd deal him if the offer justifies it)

A likely keeper unless he has a solid offensive season in 2026 in which case he'd join the above trio & until a suitable replacement can be found is:

VSII

The players who could be dealt with or without solid 2026 seasons are:

L. Nootbar
P. Pages (if he's even on the team when they break from Florida, I have my doubts)

The obvious players C. Bloom will cut the cord on and move on from unless they have solid 2026 seasons are:

J. Walker
N. Gorman

Agree

[Melville]

Pretty simple.
STL started the off-season in need of a RH hitting outfielder.
Now, they also need a RH hitting 1B.
Bloom won't bet both on existing options.
He will add at least one.
He is not "betting on the core in the near term" - but he will create a final competition for future roles.
Three in particular.
Herrera did nearly all of his hitting in one April game and in a 4-week stretch against watered down September competition in meaningless games.
Can he - in his 5th year - become a full season contributing bat?
Walker had a promising start - and the STL staff tried to force him to become something he is not.
Can he - in his 4th year - succeed in spite of the manager and staff?
Gorman - if simply allowed consistent playing time - will hit 25+ HR and drive in 80 or more runs.
That is a given -unless The Marmot yet again undermines his own players.
That is what Bloom is actually up to.

[OldRed]

Since the position players on our current roster are all (we'll exclude JJW) on Mo's POBO resume there's only a few who will likely survive unless they have solid 2026 campaigns.

The keepers, even if they don't light the world on fire in 2026 are:

I. Hererra
M. Winn
A. Burleson (although I'd deal him if the offer justifies it)

A likely keeper unless he has a solid offensive season in 2026 in which case he'd join the above trio & until a suitable replacement can be found is:

VSII

The players who could be dealt with or without solid 2026 seasons are:

L. Nootbar
P. Pages (if he's even on the team when they break from Florida, I have my doubts)

The obvious players C. Bloom will cut the cord on and move on from unless they have solid 2026 seasons are:

J. Walker
N. Gorman

Walker would be a mistake.

[rockondlouie]

Since the position players on our current roster are all (we'll exclude JJW) on Mo's POBO resume there's only a few who will likely survive unless they have solid 2026 campaigns.

The keepers, even if they don't light the world on fire in 2026 are:

I. Hererra
M. Winn
A. Burleson (although I'd deal him if the offer justifies it)

A likely keeper unless he has a solid offensive season in 2026 in which case he'd join the above trio & until a suitable replacement can be found is:

VSII

The players who could be dealt with or without solid 2026 seasons are:

L. Nootbar
P. Pages (if he's even on the team when they break from Florida, I have my doubts)

The obvious players C. Bloom will cut the cord on and move on from unless they have solid 2026 seasons are:

J. Walker
N. Gorman

Walker would be a mistake.

I'd start him at Memphis OR but it sounds like Oli wants him here in St. Louis.

[11WSChamps]

What existing core?

Burleson, Winn and Hererra are complementary pieces at best. Burleson with somebody around him in the lineup perhaps moreso.

This is assuming of course Donovan is traded.

You don't have that anchor that can carry a ballclub for weeks at time not on the roster or in the organization.

Who's going to trade you that type of player who isnt years away and if the plan is to reduce payroll how do you trade for one Who's at least somewhat established?

[Carp4Cy]

What existing core?

Burleson, Winn and Hererra are complementary pieces at best. Burleson with somebody around him in the lineup perhaps moreso.

This is assuming of course Donovan is traded.

You don't have that anchor that can carry a ballclub for weeks at time not on the roster or in the organization.

Who's going to trade you that type of player who isnt years away and if the plan is to reduce payroll how do you trade for one Who's at least somewhat established?

the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.

[Melville]

Since the position players on our current roster are all (we'll exclude JJW) on Mo's POBO resume there's only a few who will likely survive unless they have solid 2026 campaigns.

The keepers, even if they don't light the world on fire in 2026 are:

I. Hererra
M. Winn
A. Burleson (although I'd deal him if the offer justifies it)

A likely keeper unless he has a solid offensive season in 2026 in which case he'd join the above trio & until a suitable replacement can be found is:

VSII

The players who could be dealt with or without solid 2026 seasons are:

L. Nootbar
P. Pages (if he's even on the team when they break from Florida, I have my doubts)

The obvious players C. Bloom will cut the cord on and move on from unless they have solid 2026 seasons are:

J. Walker
N. Gorman

Walker would be a mistake.

Walker will never become the player he should be and can be as long as he is with STL.
Better for the team, better for the player, to trade him.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

[renostl]

What existing core?

Burleson, Winn and Hererra are complementary pieces at best. Burleson with somebody around him in the lineup perhaps moreso.

This is assuming of course Donovan is traded.

You don't have that anchor that can carry a ballclub for weeks at time not on the roster or in the organization.

Who's going to trade you that type of player who isnt years away and if the plan is to reduce payroll how do you trade for one Who's at least somewhat established?

the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.

Might it be better to clear the slate of players that there
wasn't a guarantee that they could be moved with the NTC before
actively pursuing the hole that they may open up.

If looking for that 30+ guy and it's not from the JW/NG duo
it does become complicated. Take advantage of other teams needs.
Pitching depth always works. Donovan+, Winn+ might get such a player.

In no attempt to be blind by the fact that they have not done it yet,
I do think Burleson, Herrera, and JJ could be 25 HR players, IF only 1
of the enigmas comes through......but yes there has to be a plan B and C.

[rockondlouie]

the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.

One carp

D. May/$12,000,000

+

$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option

[Carp4Cy]

the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.

One carp

D. May/$12,000,000

+

$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option

ok right, but still we could easily be the lowest "active payroll" going into 2026 even IF we sign someone else.

[Alex Reyes Cy Young]

It’s been disappointing to see the organization not taking the DH position seriously. And I agree not sure why they haven’t brought in positional talent and not just pitching.