What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?

[ramfandan]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

[Jatalk]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

I like Donovan. I would like to keep him but we have two years to decide on future contract, correct?

[dugoutrex]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

I like Donovan. I would like to keep him but we have two years to decide on future contract, correct?

well, he is going to be gone in a few weeks so it doesn't really matter

[ramfandan]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

I like Donovan. I would like to keep him but we have two years to decide on future contract, correct?

well, he is going to be gone in a few weeks so it doesn't really matter

I believe so too but thought CT posters may enjoy reading the article .

[ramfandan]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

I like Donovan. I would like to keep him but we have two years to decide on future contract, correct?

To your question , Yes and No .... Yes, that they have two years to decide (as he is in arbitration years and their property thru 2027) but NO as if he plays all of this year and half of 2027 ( say the Cardinals would trade him at deadline of 2027 ) , the trading team has Donovan for just 2 months til he becomes a free agent. Therefore, his worth in trade value would be quite limited for a 2 month rental.
If he completes, both years with Cardinals ..sure he could stay as a free agent but OMG the Cardinals would have to pay him the going free agent market price to retain him and that could be prohibitive $$$$$.

[Whatashame]

Rammer….isn’t that the real issue. Do the Cardinals view Donovan as a 19 million dollar a year player. If they did, I imagine an extension would have been agreed to by now. There were some preliminary discussions we heard about last year but nothing materialized. I don’t know but maybe the price tag was more than the Cardinals wanted to pay.

Seems like a similar issue as with Edman. It wasn’t like Edman didn’t have value but he seemed to price himself out of our market. I’m not advocating either way but if that is the parameters of a future extension, is he a 19 million dollar a year player?

[Melville]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

I have said before that I would not trade Donovan - yet.
Instead, I would offer him a 3 year/30M contract - with a player option for 15M in year 4.
I would not include a NTC.
Give him until June 1 to accept and shop him then if he declines the extension.
Or, depending on team performance, he could be shopped at the deadline or next fall even if he accepts.
It is foolish to surrender the 2026 season too soon - and this scenario would be in the best interest of both the team and the player.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

[dugoutrex]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

I have said before that I would not trade Donovan - yet.
Instead, I would offer him a 3 year/30M contract - with a player option for 15M in year 4.
I would not include a NTC.
Give him until June 1 to accept and shop him then if he declines the extension.
Or, depending on team performance, he could be shopped at the deadline or next fall even if he accepts.
It is foolish to surrender the 2026 season too soon - and this scenario would be in the best interest of both the team and the player.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

we surrendered when we traded Sonny

[CorneliusWolfe]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

I have said before that I would not trade Donovan - yet.
Instead, I would offer him a 3 year/30M contract - with a player option for 15M in year 4.
I would not include a NTC.
Give him until June 1 to accept and shop him then if he declines the extension.
Or, depending on team performance, he could be shopped at the deadline or next fall even if he accepts.
It is foolish to surrender the 2026 season too soon - and this scenario would be in the best interest of both the team and the player.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

You’re totally right, but that won’t stop the “trade everyone” prospect geeks from taking a giant dump all over your plan.

They think every prospect we acquire will be the next Bobby Witt Jr. or Paul Skenes, or if we acquire quantity over quality that half of them will magically become superstars.

Surrender, tank, and save BDW money is their primary objective and golden ticket to the promised land.

[Youboughtit]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

I have said before that I would not trade Donovan - yet.
Instead, I would offer him a 3 year/30M contract - with a player option for 15M in year 4.
I would not include a NTC.
Give him until June 1 to accept and shop him then if he declines the extension.
Or, depending on team performance, he could be shopped at the deadline or next fall even if he accepts.
It is foolish to surrender the 2026 season too soon - and this scenario would be in the best interest of both the team and the player.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

You’re totally right, but that won’t stop the “trade everyone” prospect geeks from taking a giant dump all over your plan.

They think every prospect we acquire will be the next Bobby Witt Jr. or Paul Skenes, or if we acquire quantity over quality that half of them will magically become superstars.

Surrender, tank, and save BDW money is their primary objective and golden ticket to the promised land.

So offer a 30-% below market deal that will make him a FA at 33? He would be an idiot to accept that. This will be his only chance at a long term payday and to play for a contender of his choice.

To stay they would have to offer more than market. This is not a “sign for less situations”.

[zuck698]

I understand the reason for trading him, but I would like to keep him personally. He is a great example to the youth coming up, with his hustle and play hard every play attitude. Unless Bloom is just blown away with a trade, I would prefer to keep him. You need to have more than just Winn and JJ to bring people to the games as well. I would prefer to see Contreras and Nolan gone before I would Donny. Give Arenado away and use a few of those dollars to give Donny an extension, put him at third, and play away.

[Melville]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

I have said before that I would not trade Donovan - yet.
Instead, I would offer him a 3 year/30M contract - with a player option for 15M in year 4.
I would not include a NTC.
Give him until June 1 to accept and shop him then if he declines the extension.
Or, depending on team performance, he could be shopped at the deadline or next fall even if he accepts.
It is foolish to surrender the 2026 season too soon - and this scenario would be in the best interest of both the team and the player.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

You’re totally right, but that won’t stop the “trade everyone” prospect geeks from taking a giant dump all over your plan.

They think every prospect we acquire will be the next Bobby Witt Jr. or Paul Skenes, or if we acquire quantity over quality that half of them will magically become superstars.

Surrender, tank, and save BDW money is their primary objective and golden ticket to the promised land.

So offer a 30-% below market deal that will make him a FA at 33? He would be an idiot to accept that. This will be his only chance at a long term payday and to play for a contender of his choice.

To stay they would have to offer more than market. This is not a “sign for less situations”.

It is not "below market", nor a "sign for less" situation.
Rather, it is a brilliant and classic risk/reward scenario.
Under my perfectly analyzed scenario, Donovan would be gaining a guaranteed 16M per season for 2 additional seasons or have the option of entering FA after pocketing 17M for one additional season.
With injury and performance factors being wild card factors, there is zero guarantee he would do better by making a bet on himself 2 years from now.
Perhaps he would.
Perhaps not.
A lot can happen in 2 years.
45M in guaranteed money is not one penny undervalued, since he would enter the FA market at age 32 in a worst-case scenario.
It is simply a spot on math calculation, which Donovan would almost certainly strongly consider.
45M guaranteed NOW is life changing money - and would reduce uncertainties for him.
Cornelius is correct: I am totally right.
This is unquestionably the CORRECT BASEBALL DECISION.

[ScotchMIrish]

I like those numbers and if I was Donovan I'd take it but assuming the Cardinals will make a qualifying offer that's $22 million this season probably add a million or two next year. You offer $26 for his first 2 years when will likely make $23 or $24 if he just takes the QO.

[Youboughtit]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

I have said before that I would not trade Donovan - yet.
Instead, I would offer him a 3 year/30M contract - with a player option for 15M in year 4.
I would not include a NTC.
Give him until June 1 to accept and shop him then if he declines the extension.
Or, depending on team performance, he could be shopped at the deadline or next fall even if he accepts.
It is foolish to surrender the 2026 season too soon - and this scenario would be in the best interest of both the team and the player.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

You’re totally right, but that won’t stop the “trade everyone” prospect geeks from taking a giant dump all over your plan.

They think every prospect we acquire will be the next Bobby Witt Jr. or Paul Skenes, or if we acquire quantity over quality that half of them will magically become superstars.

Surrender, tank, and save BDW money is their primary objective and golden ticket to the promised land.

So offer a 30-% below market deal that will make him a FA at 33? He would be an idiot to accept that. This will be his only chance at a long term payday and to play for a contender of his choice.

To stay they would have to offer more than market. This is not a “sign for less situations”.

It is not "below market", nor a "sign for less" situation.
Rather, it is a brilliant and classic risk/reward scenario.
Under my perfectly analyzed scenario, Donovan would be gaining a guaranteed 16M per season for 2 additional seasons or have the option of entering FA after pocketing 17M for one additional season.
With injury and performance factors being wild card factors, there is zero guarantee he would do better by making a bet on himself 2 years from now.
Perhaps he would.
Perhaps not.
A lot can happen in 2 years.
45M in guaranteed money is not one penny undervalued, since he would enter the FA market at age 32 in a worst-case scenario.
It is simply a spot on math calculation, which Donovan would almost certainly strongly consider.
45M guaranteed NOW is life changing money - and would reduce uncertainties for him.
Cornelius is correct: I am totally right.
This is unquestionably the CORRECT BASEBALL DECISION.

But he is an old FA. He will want terms and AAV asap. Would how give the last few years of your prime or wait and get a bigger deal? His value is rising. He’s likely a 5/$100m player as soon as he hits FA

[Melville]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

I have said before that I would not trade Donovan - yet.
Instead, I would offer him a 3 year/30M contract - with a player option for 15M in year 4.
I would not include a NTC.
Give him until June 1 to accept and shop him then if he declines the extension.
Or, depending on team performance, he could be shopped at the deadline or next fall even if he accepts.
It is foolish to surrender the 2026 season too soon - and this scenario would be in the best interest of both the team and the player.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

You’re totally right, but that won’t stop the “trade everyone” prospect geeks from taking a giant dump all over your plan.

They think every prospect we acquire will be the next Bobby Witt Jr. or Paul Skenes, or if we acquire quantity over quality that half of them will magically become superstars.

Surrender, tank, and save BDW money is their primary objective and golden ticket to the promised land.

So offer a 30-% below market deal that will make him a FA at 33? He would be an idiot to accept that. This will be his only chance at a long term payday and to play for a contender of his choice.

To stay they would have to offer more than market. This is not a “sign for less situations”.

It is not "below market", nor a "sign for less" situation.
Rather, it is a brilliant and classic risk/reward scenario.
Under my perfectly analyzed scenario, Donovan would be gaining a guaranteed 16M per season for 2 additional seasons or have the option of entering FA after pocketing 17M for one additional season.
With injury and performance factors being wild card factors, there is zero guarantee he would do better by making a bet on himself 2 years from now.
Perhaps he would.
Perhaps not.
A lot can happen in 2 years.
45M in guaranteed money is not one penny undervalued, since he would enter the FA market at age 32 in a worst-case scenario.
It is simply a spot on math calculation, which Donovan would almost certainly strongly consider.
45M guaranteed NOW is life changing money - and would reduce uncertainties for him.
Cornelius is correct: I am totally right.
This is unquestionably the CORRECT BASEBALL DECISION.

But he is an old FA. He will want terms and AAV asap. Would how give the last few years of your prime or wait and get a bigger deal? His value is rising. He’s likely a 5/$100m player as soon as he hits FA

Which would mean he would earn a little over 90M across the next 7 years IF all goes very, very well for him - and nothing happens over the next 2 seasons to reduce his value.
My approach would guarantee him 45M over the next 4 years - and he would still enter the FA market at age 32 with opportunity to cash in further.
Even if his value dropped to just 10-12M at age 32, he would likely earn another 40M+ contract.
Zero downside to him signing the extension I described.

[Hoosier59]

I believe Donovan would accept a deal like that for the reasons you give. That deal doesnt break the bank, and DeWitt can certainly afford it.