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Draft Lottery show : MLB TV Tues. Dec. 9th 4:30pm CT
Posted: 30 Nov 2025 09:57 am
by ramfandan
For your calendar and recording on your DVR . Half hour show from 4:30 to 5:00 pm
Here are the Cardinals current odds of the 1st pick in the draft .. 2.35 %
All non-playoff teams are entered into a lottery for the top six picks. This year, 15 of those 18 teams are eligible for the lottery. Here they are, listed in order of the odds of them getting the No. 1 pick, with their 2025 winning percentages in parentheses.
White Sox (.370) -- 27.73%
Twins (.432) -- 22.18%
Pirates (.438) -- 16.81%
Orioles (.463) -- 9.24%
A’s (.469) -- 6.55%
Braves (.469) -- 4.54%
Rays (.475) -- 3.03%
Cardinals (.481) -- 2.35%
Re: Draft Lottery show : MLB TV Tues. Dec. 9th 4:30pm CT
Posted: 30 Nov 2025 13:05 pm
by Francis Park Thug
ramfandan wrote: ↑30 Nov 2025 09:57 am
For your calendar and recording on your DVR . Half hour show from 4:30 to 5:00 pm
Here are the Cardinals current odds of the 1st pick in the draft .. 2.35 %
All non-playoff teams are entered into a lottery for the top six picks. This year, 15 of those 18 teams are eligible for the lottery. Here they are, listed in order of the odds of them getting the No. 1 pick, with their 2025 winning percentages in parentheses.
White Sox (.370) -- 27.73%
Twins (.432) -- 22.18%
Pirates (.438) -- 16.81%
Orioles (.463) -- 9.24%
A’s (.469) -- 6.55%
Braves (.469) -- 4.54%
Rays (.475) -- 3.03%
Cardinals (.481) -- 2.35%
So, you're saying there's a chance.
Re: Draft Lottery show : MLB TV Tues. Dec. 9th 4:30pm CT
Posted: 30 Nov 2025 13:12 pm
by ScotchMIrish
I'm a boring old man but I'm not bored enough to watch that.
Re: Draft Lottery show : MLB TV Tues. Dec. 9th 4:30pm CT
Posted: 30 Nov 2025 16:04 pm
by cardstatman
I ran 100,000 drafts using a spreadsheet macro. These were the results. These results should be well within a tenth of a percentage point of the true odds.
1 2.33% --- We know the real odds for this pick are 2.35% so 100,000 runs wasn't enough to be accurate to a hundredth of a percent.
2 2.84%
3 3.47%
4 4.46%
5 5.78%
6 7.34%
7 0.00%
8 19.30%
9 38.59%
10 0.00%
11 0.00%
12 0.00%
13 14.43%
14 1.42%
15 0.04%
16 0.00%
17 0.00%
18 0.00%
Re: Draft Lottery show : MLB TV Tues. Dec. 9th 4:30pm CT
Posted: 30 Nov 2025 16:12 pm
by cardstatman
Below are my results for all 18 non-playoff teams.
Code: Select all
Pick COL CHW WAS MIN PIT LAA BAL ATH ATL TBR STL MIA ARI TEX SFG KCR NYM HOU
1 0.00% 27.84% 0.00% 22.02% 16.87% 0.00% 9.22% 6.60% 4.51% 3.02% 2.33% 1.89% 1.57% 1.29% 1.01% 0.85% 0.65% 0.35%
2 0.00% 23.01% 0.00% 20.88% 17.26% 0.00% 10.33% 7.50% 5.34% 3.67% 2.84% 2.19% 1.80% 1.67% 1.24% 1.07% 0.78% 0.44%
3 0.00% 18.34% 0.00% 18.25% 16.94% 0.00% 11.67% 9.04% 6.36% 4.37% 3.47% 2.84% 2.37% 1.99% 1.52% 1.31% 1.00% 0.53%
4 0.00% 13.46% 0.00% 14.72% 15.33% 0.00% 13.17% 10.60% 8.04% 5.53% 4.46% 3.55% 2.85% 2.63% 2.09% 1.62% 1.29% 0.66%
5 0.00% 8.54% 0.00% 10.56% 12.67% 0.00% 13.99% 12.19% 9.75% 7.19% 5.78% 4.63% 3.82% 3.41% 2.62% 2.15% 1.77% 0.95%
6 0.00% 4.91% 0.00% 6.88% 9.30% 0.00% 12.90% 12.93% 11.52% 8.85% 7.34% 6.00% 5.00% 4.52% 3.36% 2.87% 2.35% 1.26%
7 0.00% 3.91% 0.00% 6.47% 10.63% 0.00% 24.11% 26.32% 20.49% 8.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.22% 0.98% 0.00% 4.42% 13.45% 27.14% 34.49% 19.30% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.00% 0.19% 1.35% 6.44% 21.55% 38.59% 31.86% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
10 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
11 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
12 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
13 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.41% 3.12% 14.43% 37.57% 44.42% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
14 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.13% 1.42% 8.86% 32.90% 56.69% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
15 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.60% 5.06% 25.37% 68.93% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
16 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.21% 2.40% 18.31% 79.07% 0.00% 0.00%
17 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.93% 10.84% 88.19% 0.00%
18 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.21% 3.97% 95.81%
Re: Draft Lottery show : MLB TV Tues. Dec. 9th 4:30pm CT
Posted: 30 Nov 2025 16:29 pm
by cardstatman
So the Cards have a 26% chance of winning a lottery pick.
The Cards most likely 1st round pick is (in descending order):
- 9th (38.6%) - 1 team lower than STL wins the lottery; STL does not
- 8th (19.3%) - 0 teams lower than STL win the lottery; STL does not either
- 13th (14.4%) - 2 teams lower than STL win the lottery; STL does not
- 6th (7.3%) - STL wins the lottery
- 5th (5.8%) - STL wins the lottery
- 4th (4.5%) - STL wins the lottery
- 3rd (3.5%) - STL wins the lottery
- 2nd (2.8%) - STL wins the lottery
- 1st (2.3%) - STL wins the lottery
- 14th (1.4%) - 3 teams lower than STL win the lottery; STL does not