Draft Lottery show : MLB TV Tues. Dec. 9th 4:30pm CT

[ramfandan]

For your calendar and recording on your DVR . Half hour show from 4:30 to 5:00 pm

Here are the Cardinals current odds of the 1st pick in the draft .. 2.35 %

All non-playoff teams are entered into a lottery for the top six picks. This year, 15 of those 18 teams are eligible for the lottery. Here they are, listed in order of the odds of them getting the No. 1 pick, with their 2025 winning percentages in parentheses.

White Sox (.370) -- 27.73%
Twins (.432) -- 22.18%
Pirates (.438) -- 16.81%
Orioles (.463) -- 9.24%
A’s (.469) -- 6.55%
Braves (.469) -- 4.54%
Rays (.475) -- 3.03%
Cardinals (.481) -- 2.35%

[Francis Park Thug]

For your calendar and recording on your DVR . Half hour show from 4:30 to 5:00 pm

Here are the Cardinals current odds of the 1st pick in the draft .. 2.35 %

All non-playoff teams are entered into a lottery for the top six picks. This year, 15 of those 18 teams are eligible for the lottery. Here they are, listed in order of the odds of them getting the No. 1 pick, with their 2025 winning percentages in parentheses.

White Sox (.370) -- 27.73%
Twins (.432) -- 22.18%
Pirates (.438) -- 16.81%
Orioles (.463) -- 9.24%
A’s (.469) -- 6.55%
Braves (.469) -- 4.54%
Rays (.475) -- 3.03%
Cardinals (.481) -- 2.35%

So, you're saying there's a chance.

[ScotchMIrish]

I'm a boring old man but I'm not bored enough to watch that.

[cardstatman]

I ran 100,000 drafts using a spreadsheet macro. These were the results. These results should be well within a tenth of a percentage point of the true odds.

1 2.33% --- We know the real odds for this pick are 2.35% so 100,000 runs wasn't enough to be accurate to a hundredth of a percent.
2 2.84%
3 3.47%
4 4.46%
5 5.78%
6 7.34%
7 0.00%
8 19.30%
9 38.59%
10 0.00%
11 0.00%
12 0.00%
13 14.43%
14 1.42%
15 0.04%
16 0.00%
17 0.00%
18 0.00%

[cardstatman]

Below are my results for all 18 non-playoff teams.

Code: Select all

Pick	COL	CHW	WAS	MIN	PIT	LAA	BAL	ATH	ATL	TBR	STL	MIA	ARI	TEX	SFG	KCR	NYM	HOU
1	0.00%	27.84%	0.00%	22.02%	16.87%	0.00%	9.22%	6.60%	4.51%	3.02%	2.33%	1.89%	1.57%	1.29%	1.01%	0.85%	0.65%	0.35%
2	0.00%	23.01%	0.00%	20.88%	17.26%	0.00%	10.33%	7.50%	5.34%	3.67%	2.84%	2.19%	1.80%	1.67%	1.24%	1.07%	0.78%	0.44%
3	0.00%	18.34%	0.00%	18.25%	16.94%	0.00%	11.67%	9.04%	6.36%	4.37%	3.47%	2.84%	2.37%	1.99%	1.52%	1.31%	1.00%	0.53%
4	0.00%	13.46%	0.00%	14.72%	15.33%	0.00%	13.17%	10.60%	8.04%	5.53%	4.46%	3.55%	2.85%	2.63%	2.09%	1.62%	1.29%	0.66%
5	0.00%	8.54%	0.00%	10.56%	12.67%	0.00%	13.99%	12.19%	9.75%	7.19%	5.78%	4.63%	3.82%	3.41%	2.62%	2.15%	1.77%	0.95%
6	0.00%	4.91%	0.00%	6.88%	9.30%	0.00%	12.90%	12.93%	11.52%	8.85%	7.34%	6.00%	5.00%	4.52%	3.36%	2.87%	2.35%	1.26%
7	0.00%	3.91%	0.00%	6.47%	10.63%	0.00%	24.11%	26.32%	20.49%	8.08%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
8	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.22%	0.98%	0.00%	4.42%	13.45%	27.14%	34.49%	19.30%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
9	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.02%	0.00%	0.19%	1.35%	6.44%	21.55%	38.59%	31.86%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
10	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
11	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
12	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
13	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.04%	0.41%	3.12%	14.43%	37.57%	44.42%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
14	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.13%	1.42%	8.86%	32.90%	56.69%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
15	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.04%	0.60%	5.06%	25.37%	68.93%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
16	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.21%	2.40%	18.31%	79.07%	0.00%	0.00%
17	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.04%	0.93%	10.84%	88.19%	0.00%
18	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%	0.21%	3.97%	95.81%

[cardstatman]

So the Cards have a 26% chance of winning a lottery pick.

The Cards most likely 1st round pick is (in descending order):

• 9th (38.6%) - 1 team lower than STL wins the lottery; STL does not
• 8th (19.3%) - 0 teams lower than STL win the lottery; STL does not either
• 13th (14.4%) - 2 teams lower than STL win the lottery; STL does not
• 6th (7.3%) - STL wins the lottery
• 5th (5.8%) - STL wins the lottery
• 4th (4.5%) - STL wins the lottery
• 3rd (3.5%) - STL wins the lottery
• 2nd (2.8%) - STL wins the lottery
• 1st (2.3%) - STL wins the lottery
• 14th (1.4%) - 3 teams lower than STL win the lottery; STL does not