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mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 05:44 am To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce.

And they need to just their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are not putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 05:50 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 05:44 am To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce.

And they need to just their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are not putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

Yes . You have been clear. Again not a JJ bash here. Just worried the kid might have growing pains, counter to everyone’s expectations.

Then concerned if he isn’t all that initially , how it affects your model going forward. I like your layout. I’m now starting to pick at it to determine the durability and endurance of time.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 05:44 am To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

juan good eye wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 05:58 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 05:44 am To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Given his age, college experience, talent, etc if he’s going to pan out I expect him to be 4 War by 2026 — assuming no injuries or any weird setbacks (mismanagement) — otherwise it probably won’t happen on an annual basis.

juan good eye wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 05:58 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 05:44 am To be clear, I'm NOT expecting him to be a 4+ fWAR player in 2026.

I'm hoping for him to come up and have a solid 2+ fWAR season as a rookie and grow into being a 4+ fWAR A-S or borderline A-S in a couple of years.

That's precisely why my focus is on 2028, 2029, etc., not 2026.

Right now he just has the POTENTIAL to become a 4+ fWAR player that they very badly need to produce (and they need to produce another one in Doyle or somebody else).

And they need to use their trade equity (particularly in Donovan) to acquire another AA/AAA ML-ready prospect (to go along with Wetherholt and Doyle) who has "high ceiling" 4+ fWAR potential in the relatively near term so they are NOT putting all of their hopes on Wetherholt and Doyle.

The contingent who wants the Cardinals to go out and spend a lot of money to "compete now" in 2026 are the ones who need Wetherholt to be a 4+ fWAR player from Day 1 (even if they don't realize it) in order for the Cardinals to have even ~90 win talent in 2026.

Given his age, college experience, talent, etc if he’s going to pan out I expect him to be 4 War by 2026 — assuming no injuries or any weird setbacks (mismanagement) — otherwise it probably won’t happen on an annual basis.

craviduce wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 07:19 am It doesn't hurt that the kid has hit at an elite level since Child Birth, Sikes

Yes, we tend to hype every well spoken of Prospect, b/c that's what we do...we're fans. But JJ hits different...figuratively speaking. And "hits" better...literally speaking, than every one else.

Hyperbole...he's a future batting champion. I said it before draft day 2024, I'll it again....Future Batting Champion.

Ace wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 07:28 am For a top 10 prospect, there hasn't been THAT much hype IMO.

Have you watched him play?

Ronnie Dobbs wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 07:51 am Why all the hype? I think it's obvious. He was a stud at a top baseball university. He was a guy that could have been drafted first overall and no one would have been surprised. He was the favorite until he had his hammy injuries and was still the favorite in some mock drafts. After being drafted he dominated AA and AAA in his first full year. He's basically a consensus top 10 prospect. Unlike some prospects we've seen, he's basically a complete player out of college and he's shown everything he was hyped up for so far in his career.

I don't know about any Gold Gloves or coming out right away and put up all star like numbers, but there's every indication that he will be a good player. You're right that there will be some ups and downs as he (likely) makes the team out of the spring and grinds through a full MLB season, but I don't think any struggles should indicate that the hype is wrong.

Hoosier59 wrote: ↑20 Nov 2025 07:59 am I personally feel JJ will be in the running for Rookie of the Year, but what that looks like will depend on what protection is around him.
If Oli has him hit lead off, wouldn’t it look really good to have a guy behind him, who can take pitches to allow him to steal, or hit behind him in the hole created by the 1st baseman having to hold him close. The Cardinals currently have the perfect guy to do just that! His name is Brendan Donovan. Follow those two with Herrera and Burleson and that’s a pretty good 1-4 line up.