Tekoah Roby - cautionary tale

[Carp4Cy]

He was a 3rd round HS draftee. We traded for him as a highly regarded SP who had SO success at A+ and a few starts at AA - way back in 2023.

Now he's 24 yo, has been injured multiple times, and will lose all of 2026 to TJ. And he will still need 2027 to rebuild strength and get experience at AAA (only 6 career starts at that level).

Yes we may someday salvage value from him, but the timeline is the problem here. Best case over 5 years from trade to any kind of MLB production is just not efficient. And as we've seen so many things have gone wrong along the way, a prospect coming from that low in the minors may not even ever make it to MLB. Especially pitching. Drafting someone like Wacha (who still had a few injuries but nothing like this) was such a quicker development process. Makes you wonder what Texas knew about Roby's health that made them willing to trade him - adverse selection bias.

Just something to keep in mind as we evaluate new "prospects" that we might acquire this winter. I'm not overly excited until they show they are MLB ready.

[mattmitchl44]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

[Quincy Varnish]

They got Roby for the expiring contract of Jordan Montgomery. You make trades like that all day, every day. A “MLB-ready” player would have been ready to stink it up in the majors.

[Carp4Cy]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

No - but prospects selected from Amatuer draft and Intl open markets seem to have a much higher liklihood of succeeding than the prospects that come from other orgs. Again because of the adverse selection bias. I am skeptical of the return we will eventually realize from trades unless its for MLB level or possibly MLB ready players.

Also anything we can do to create extra draft picks would be extremely valuable - qualifying for competitve balance extra picks, having a pending FA at a level they will be eligible for and guaranteed to refuse a QO (Helsley was almost this, Bubic could be worst case, if we acquired him and didn't extend). Those are the things that could be overlooked but return in spades. Wacha was a QO compensating pick IIRC.

[C-Unit]

Realize that injury risk applies to all players, not just prospects.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

They got Roby for the expiring contract of Jordan Montgomery. You make trades like that all day, every day. A “MLB-ready” player would have been ready to stink it up in the majors.

Exactly. And he was known at the time as an injury risk, which is how we got a guy with the potential of Roby in the first place. It's not that he doesn't have the talent, he just gets hurt all the time.

I guess maybe with hindsight you could say they should have shot for a healthy, safe back of the rotation starter like McGreevy or something. But I don't mind the gamble of trying for someone with higher tier talent, but has that injury risk.

[Talkin' Baseball]

They got Roby for the expiring contract of Jordan Montgomery. You make trades like that all day, every day. A “MLB-ready” player would have been ready to stink it up in the majors.

Exactly. And he was known at the time as an injury risk, which is how we got a guy with the potential of Roby in the first place. It's not that he doesn't have the talent, he just gets hurt all the time.

I guess maybe with hindsight you could say they should have shot for a healthy, safe back of the rotation starter like McGreevy or something. But I don't mind the gamble of trying for someone with higher tier talent, but has that injury risk.

Something I wonder about pitchers that "get hurt all the time"- Are they injury-prone and really do get hurt all the time, or do they have one injury (usually an elbow) that they are trying to keep together long enough to get to the big leagues before they have their Tommy John surgery so that they can accrue service time, collect a big league check, and use big league facilities and staff while they rehab? Even though they try, some of them just can't keep the elbow together long enough to make it. The follow up question then is, are they truly injury prone, or do they have one injury that they won't do the big fix on? If it is just one injury, the possibility of working past it is pretty good.

[rockondlouie]

I'd make that trade (Monty for Roby + Saggese + King) 100/100 times.

Roby, as long as he remains healthy, has some big upside.

Don't give up on him just yet carp.

[Cardinals4Life]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

[Cardinals4Life]

They got Roby for the expiring contract of Jordan Montgomery. You make trades like that all day, every day. A “MLB-ready” player would have been ready to stink it up in the majors.

Yeah, Sagesse, Roby, and King was a good trade for Montgomery.

[WeeVikes]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

Just curious, why do you say that?

Thanks.

[renostl]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

No - but prospects selected from Amatuer draft and Intl open markets seem to have a much higher liklihood of succeeding than the prospects that come from other orgs. Again because of the adverse selection bias. I am skeptical of the return we will eventually realize from trades unless its for MLB level or possibly MLB ready players.

Also anything we can do to create extra draft picks would be extremely valuable - qualifying for competitve balance extra picks, having a pending FA at a level they will be eligible for and guaranteed to refuse a QO (Helsley was almost this, Bubic could be worst case, if we acquired him and didn't extend). Those are the things that could be overlooked but return in spades. Wacha was a QO compensating pick IIRC.

It is a single method that is used to augment all of the other methods.
I think that you are suggesting to temper our thoughts vs saying all trades
for other prospects are bad. That might need individualized a bit.

[Goldfan]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

Shall be engraved on MO’s tombstone
“Not All Prospects are Going To Succeed”

[Sweet Jones]

TINSTAAPP. Grab as many arms as you can.

[Ozziesfan41]

They got Roby for the expiring contract of Jordan Montgomery. You make trades like that all day, every day. A “MLB-ready” player would have been ready to stink it up in the majors.

Agree they weren’t going to trade near ready top tier major league prospects for him contrary to what some mistakenly believe you don’t get a better return waiting until the deadline when they only have two months of control they got the best return they could.

[mattmitchl44]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

At FA market rates of even averaging $8 million per WAR, your entire $180 million you can only buy ~22.5 WAR.

That makes you about a 70 win team.

Where does the rest of the talent come from, for nearly zero payroll, to make you a 90, 92, 95, etc. win team?