The NTC Guys- Arenado

[Talkin' Baseball]

The first order of business this offseason needs to be trying to find a trade for the 3 players with no trade clauses. It would be helpful if they could resolve these questions before the winter meetings. Knowing if these players will further define who is on the roster, where opportunities and needs are, as well as what the payroll situation will be. Personally, I would trade all 3 if I could. A few suggestions from me:

Nolan Arenado- He should be traded to anyone we can get a deal with on the money and he will accept a trade to. Player return is not important. In my opinion, the best target for a home for him is Seattle. The Mariners got a chance to see how their team was transformed when they got a real 1B and 3B at the deadline. Their payroll will be tight next season. They don’t seem like they are going to try to re-sign Suarez for 3B, but would like to re-sign Naylor for first. The Naylor signing will drag on all winter long. Getting Arenado early with the Cardinals picking up significant salary let’s them answer that question early without having to wait for Naylor before making a move. For the Cardinals, it lets them move on from Nolan early without having to wait and see what Alex Bregman does (like with the Red Sox last winter).

My proposal- Nolan Arenado and 20M cash to the Seattle Mariners for Emerson Hancock. The 20M consists of the Cardinals paying the 12M in deferred money owed plus 4M each of the next two seasons. Mariners get Arenado for 12M per season for 2 seasons. Hancock is a 26-year-old pitcher with 4 years of team control left. He is a back of the rotation starter. This season he started 16 games for Seattle, pitched 90 innings to a .490 ERA, and a 1.38 WHIP. His trade value is almost zero.

Second choice destination- Arizona Diamondbacks. The money situation would be the same as for the Mariners. The Cardinals get relief pitcher Hunter Cranton. Cranton is the Diamondbacks #27 prospect. Ironically, they got him at the deadline from Seattle for Suarez. He is 25 years old, pitching in AA. He is a righty with a 98 mph fastball and a plus slider working on control. (Aren’t all minor leaguers!) Too soon to tell, but Arenado could end up back with Goldschmidt if he goes to Arizona.

Other possible landing spots- Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox.

[sikeston bulldog2]

The first order of business this offseason needs to be trying to find a trade for the 3 players with no trade clauses. It would be helpful if they could resolve these questions before the winter meetings. Knowing if these players will further define who is on the roster, where opportunities and needs are, as well as what the payroll situation will be. Personally, I would trade all 3 if I could. A few suggestions from me:

Nolan Arenado- He should be traded to anyone we can get a deal with on the money and he will accept a trade to. Player return is not important. In my opinion, the best target for a home for him is Seattle. The Mariners got a chance to see how their team was transformed when they got a real 1B and 3B at the deadline. Their payroll will be tight next season. They don’t seem like they are going to try to re-sign Suarez for 3B, but would like to re-sign Naylor for first. The Naylor signing will drag on all winter long. Getting Arenado early with the Cardinals picking up significant salary let’s them answer that question early without having to wait for Naylor before making a move. For the Cardinals, it lets them move on from Nolan early without having to wait and see what Alex Bregman does (like with the Red Sox last winter).

My proposal- Nolan Arenado and 20M cash to the Seattle Mariners for Emerson Hancock. The 20M consists of the Cardinals paying the 12M in deferred money owed plus 4M each of the next two seasons. Mariners get Arenado for 12M per season for 2 seasons. Hancock is a 26-year-old pitcher with 4 years of team control left. He is a back of the rotation starter. This season he started 16 games for Seattle, pitched 90 innings to a .490 ERA, and a 1.38 WHIP. His trade value is almost zero.

Second choice destination- Arizona Diamondbacks. The money situation would be the same as for the Mariners. The Cardinals get relief pitcher Hunter Cranton. Cranton is the Diamondbacks #27 prospect. Ironically, they got him at the deadline from Seattle for Suarez. He is 25 years old, pitching in AA. He is a righty with a 98 mph fastball and a plus slider working on control. (Aren’t all minor leaguers!) Too soon to tell, but Arenado could end up back with Goldschmidt if he goes to Arizona.

Other possible landing spots- Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox.

Nicely written. Good read.

[rockondlouie]

Agree the NTC players should be the first to go.

My guess is 2 of 3 do.

NADO - Phillies

Gray - Giants

WillyC - Cardinals

[Hoosier59]

I actually think that after Arenado, Contreras is the most likely player to be moved. My most likely landing spot for him being San Diego. They don’t seem to want to resign Luis Arraez, so they are in need of a 1st baseman, and have stated a wish to upgrade their catchers. Willson could fill either need. That versatility would be appealing to several other teams as well.
I think Sonny Gray’s market is smaller, simply because I think there are only a few teams he will consider.
Arenado’s only return, most likely will just be salary relief, the other two should garner a decent player or two each.
Lars Nootbaar was a probable trade asset up until it was learned of his off season surgery on his feet. Depending how teams see his estimated recovery time, he will most likely remain with the Cardinals until the trade deadline.

[brock118]

The first order of business this offseason needs to be trying to find a trade for the 3 players with no trade clauses. It would be helpful if they could resolve these questions before the winter meetings. Knowing if these players will further define who is on the roster, where opportunities and needs are, as well as what the payroll situation will be. Personally, I would trade all 3 if I could. A few suggestions from me:

Nolan Arenado- He should be traded to anyone we can get a deal with on the money and he will accept a trade to. Player return is not important. In my opinion, the best target for a home for him is Seattle. The Mariners got a chance to see how their team was transformed when they got a real 1B and 3B at the deadline. Their payroll will be tight next season. They don’t seem like they are going to try to re-sign Suarez for 3B, but would like to re-sign Naylor for first. The Naylor signing will drag on all winter long. Getting Arenado early with the Cardinals picking up significant salary let’s them answer that question early without having to wait for Naylor before making a move. For the Cardinals, it lets them move on from Nolan early without having to wait and see what Alex Bregman does (like with the Red Sox last winter).

My proposal- Nolan Arenado and 20M cash to the Seattle Mariners for Emerson Hancock. The 20M consists of the Cardinals paying the 12M in deferred money owed plus 4M each of the next two seasons. Mariners get Arenado for 12M per season for 2 seasons. Hancock is a 26-year-old pitcher with 4 years of team control left. He is a back of the rotation starter. This season he started 16 games for Seattle, pitched 90 innings to a .490 ERA, and a 1.38 WHIP. His trade value is almost zero.

Second choice destination- Arizona Diamondbacks. The money situation would be the same as for the Mariners. The Cardinals get relief pitcher Hunter Cranton. Cranton is the Diamondbacks #27 prospect. Ironically, they got him at the deadline from Seattle for Suarez. He is 25 years old, pitching in AA. He is a righty with a 98 mph fastball and a plus slider working on control. (Aren’t all minor leaguers!) Too soon to tell, but Arenado could end up back with Goldschmidt if he goes to Arizona.

Other possible landing spots- Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox.

We owe only $6 million in deferred money. There is no deferred money for the 2027 year. I'm not sure the deferred money is the problem The team just sets the money aside and draws interest on it and waits several years until they pay it out, so they don't really lose too much money there. The money would be in the salary.

We owe Arenado $36 over the next two years taking out the $6 million deferred and $5 million Colorado pays for 2026. So if we included $20 million they would get him for $8 million a year. It will be interesting to see how much we will include in any Arenado trade if it happens.

[Talkin' Baseball]

The first order of business this offseason needs to be trying to find a trade for the 3 players with no trade clauses. It would be helpful if they could resolve these questions before the winter meetings. Knowing if these players will further define who is on the roster, where opportunities and needs are, as well as what the payroll situation will be. Personally, I would trade all 3 if I could. A few suggestions from me:

Nolan Arenado- He should be traded to anyone we can get a deal with on the money and he will accept a trade to. Player return is not important. In my opinion, the best target for a home for him is Seattle. The Mariners got a chance to see how their team was transformed when they got a real 1B and 3B at the deadline. Their payroll will be tight next season. They don’t seem like they are going to try to re-sign Suarez for 3B, but would like to re-sign Naylor for first. The Naylor signing will drag on all winter long. Getting Arenado early with the Cardinals picking up significant salary let’s them answer that question early without having to wait for Naylor before making a move. For the Cardinals, it lets them move on from Nolan early without having to wait and see what Alex Bregman does (like with the Red Sox last winter).

My proposal- Nolan Arenado and 20M cash to the Seattle Mariners for Emerson Hancock. The 20M consists of the Cardinals paying the 12M in deferred money owed plus 4M each of the next two seasons. Mariners get Arenado for 12M per season for 2 seasons. Hancock is a 26-year-old pitcher with 4 years of team control left. He is a back of the rotation starter. This season he started 16 games for Seattle, pitched 90 innings to a .490 ERA, and a 1.38 WHIP. His trade value is almost zero.

Second choice destination- Arizona Diamondbacks. The money situation would be the same as for the Mariners. The Cardinals get relief pitcher Hunter Cranton. Cranton is the Diamondbacks #27 prospect. Ironically, they got him at the deadline from Seattle for Suarez. He is 25 years old, pitching in AA. He is a righty with a 98 mph fastball and a plus slider working on control. (Aren’t all minor leaguers!) Too soon to tell, but Arenado could end up back with Goldschmidt if he goes to Arizona.

Other possible landing spots- Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox.

We owe only $6 million in deferred money. There is no deferred money for the 2027 year. I'm not sure the deferred money is the problem The team just sets the money aside and draws interest on it and waits several years until they pay it out, so they don't really lose too much money there. The money would be in the salary.

We owe Arenado $36 over the next two years taking out the $6 million deferred and $5 million Colorado pays for 2026. So if we included $20 million they would get him for $8 million a year. It will be interesting to see how much we will include in any Arenado trade if it happens.

6M of this year's salary was deferred, as well as 6M for next season. No deferred money for '27.

[Melville]

Dump.
Zero role, zero upside.

[DwaininAztec]

If Seattle still plays as an extreme pitchers' part, why would Nado accept a trade to them? We can hope Houston comes calling again or the Red Sox decide they need him. Both provide his excessive pull tendencies to be built for their parks.

[Talkin' Baseball]

If Seattle still plays as an extreme pitchers' part, why would Nado accept a trade to them? We can hope Houston comes calling again or the Red Sox decide they need him. Both provide his excessive pull tendencies to be built for their parks.

Because they win? He's not playing for a contract anymore, he's playing to win. Houston is going nowhere and Boston will be ALL WINTER LONG trying to get Alex Bregman to sign. The Tigers are a winning team that might bite sooner than later.

[RunSup]

Who are the NTC guys, by the way?

[Talkin' Baseball]

Who are the NTC guys, by the way?

Guys with no-trade clauses.

[RunSup]

Who are the NTC guys, by the way?

Guys with no-trade clauses.

Oh. Ok so these are your thoughts and writings. Not a sports blog or podcast.

Nicely done. "The NTC guys" could be your blog brand.

[renostl]

If Seattle still plays as an extreme pitchers' part, why would Nado accept a trade to them? We can hope Houston comes calling again or the Red Sox decide they need him. Both provide his excessive pull tendencies to be built for their parks.

Because they win? He's not playing for a contract anymore, he's playing to win. Houston is going nowhere and Boston will be ALL WINTER LONG trying to get Alex Bregman to sign. The Tigers are a winning team that might bite sooner than later.

You think Houston will just concede? Or take a step back more appropriately. I don’t see it. They could even go after Tucker and move Walker. We'll see I guess but
seems more likely for Seattle to have trouble keeping it together and repeating.

I do like your AZ and LAA thoughts.
Of the NTC he's a priority and not due to what amount to a few MLB dollars.

[Talkin' Baseball]

If Seattle still plays as an extreme pitchers' part, why would Nado accept a trade to them? We can hope Houston comes calling again or the Red Sox decide they need him. Both provide his excessive pull tendencies to be built for their parks.

Because they win? He's not playing for a contract anymore, he's playing to win. Houston is going nowhere and Boston will be ALL WINTER LONG trying to get Alex Bregman to sign. The Tigers are a winning team that might bite sooner than later.

You think Houston will just concede? Or take a step back more appropriately. I don’t see it. They could even go after Tucker and move Walker. We'll see I guess but
seems more likely for Seattle to have trouble keeping it together and repeating.

I do like your AZ and LAA thoughts.
Of the NTC he's a priority and not due to what amount to a few MLB dollars.

Houston has Carlos Correa to play 3B now

[cardstatman]

Arenado's remaining contract is about $34M / 2yr.

• $16M 2026 + $5M paid by COL + $6M deferred to 2040-2041 (team puts $3M in escrow earning interest to pay him $6M ~15 years later);
• $15M 2027

Sadly for Arenado, he waited too long to accept a trade. No serious contender is going to want him as their 3B.

Sadly the Cards waited too long to trade him. He was a below average player worth about $7M in salary last year. Now they need to find a team willing to hope their third baseman bounces back to average or better.

RAA season
+22.1 2021
+50.2 2022
+08.5 2023
+11.6 2024
-04.9 2025

Arenado revealed that a sprained finger from late June was the initial issue, and he continued to play, which he later identified as a mistake.
He explained that he was compensating for the finger injury, which ultimately led to the shoulder injury.

That foolish decision helped ruin the Cards playoff chances in 2025 but may give some hope for a small 2026 rebound.
.272 .325 .394 .719 Arenado 2024
.249 .309 .399 .708 Arenado 2025 through 29 June (the healthy Arenado)
.200 .226 .310 .536 Arenado 2025 from 30 June to end of season (the injured Arenado)

The razor sharp Cardinals manager, coaches, teammates, and trainers noticed or said nothing. No problem; we aren't trying to win anyway... but we also don't care if he's taking away at bats from Gorman, Saggese, Fermin because, come on, he's Nolan Arenado.

[brock118]

The first order of business this offseason needs to be trying to find a trade for the 3 players with no trade clauses. It would be helpful if they could resolve these questions before the winter meetings. Knowing if these players will further define who is on the roster, where opportunities and needs are, as well as what the payroll situation will be. Personally, I would trade all 3 if I could. A few suggestions from me:

Nolan Arenado- He should be traded to anyone we can get a deal with on the money and he will accept a trade to. Player return is not important. In my opinion, the best target for a home for him is Seattle. The Mariners got a chance to see how their team was transformed when they got a real 1B and 3B at the deadline. Their payroll will be tight next season. They don’t seem like they are going to try to re-sign Suarez for 3B, but would like to re-sign Naylor for first. The Naylor signing will drag on all winter long. Getting Arenado early with the Cardinals picking up significant salary let’s them answer that question early without having to wait for Naylor before making a move. For the Cardinals, it lets them move on from Nolan early without having to wait and see what Alex Bregman does (like with the Red Sox last winter).

My proposal- Nolan Arenado and 20M cash to the Seattle Mariners for Emerson Hancock. The 20M consists of the Cardinals paying the 12M in deferred money owed plus 4M each of the next two seasons. Mariners get Arenado for 12M per season for 2 seasons. Hancock is a 26-year-old pitcher with 4 years of team control left. He is a back of the rotation starter. This season he started 16 games for Seattle, pitched 90 innings to a .490 ERA, and a 1.38 WHIP. His trade value is almost zero.

Second choice destination- Arizona Diamondbacks. The money situation would be the same as for the Mariners. The Cardinals get relief pitcher Hunter Cranton. Cranton is the Diamondbacks #27 prospect. Ironically, they got him at the deadline from Seattle for Suarez. He is 25 years old, pitching in AA. He is a righty with a 98 mph fastball and a plus slider working on control. (Aren’t all minor leaguers!) Too soon to tell, but Arenado could end up back with Goldschmidt if he goes to Arizona.

Other possible landing spots- Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox.

We owe only $6 million in deferred money. There is no deferred money for the 2027 year. I'm not sure the deferred money is the problem The team just sets the money aside and draws interest on it and waits several years until they pay it out, so they don't really lose too much money there. The money would be in the salary.

We owe Arenado $36 over the next two years taking out the $6 million deferred and $5 million Colorado pays for 2026. So if we included $20 million they would get him for $8 million a year. It will be interesting to see how much we will include in any Arenado trade if it happens.

6M of this year's salary was deferred, as well as 6M for next season. No deferred money for '27.

Right only $6 million is owed in deferral not $12 miliion. This year has already been set aside.