Brendan Donovan, Daniel Murphy

[C-Unit]

First, bring up Murphy's portrait.

Wow. Ok, beyond that resemblance...

Here was Murphy's statline from age 23-30:
.288 .331 .424 (162G ave. 40 2B, 11 HR, 72 RBI) 109 OPS+

Donovan so far, age 25-28 seasons:
.282 .361 .411 (32 2B, 13 HR, 67 RBI) 117 OPS+

As we all know, Murphy broke out at age 31-32, with a .334/.387/.569 slashline.

So far, Donovan has him beat in OBP. I've long had this comparison in the back of my mind. I did not follow Murphy's career that closely to know what was attributed to that late-blooming peak. However, in my mind Donovan seems to have some of the same pure hitter qualities and I feel has even better days ahead of him.

In my mind, Winn and Wetherholt appear to be the two closest things we have to being organizational staples worthy of being locked down. After that, I see Donovan and Herrera as being the two most likely hitters we have who have the potential to become professional hitters on a year-to-year basis. And if they do, you're actually that much closer to putting a winning group on the field.

Bloom is going to work to improve the organization. I did not see nor hear where he said that means he's looking to punt 2026.

On the rebuild side of things... what are you getting for Donovan, a pitcher? An injury prone, lottery pick of a pitching prospect? Who else are you tabbing for third-base after Arenado is out the door, certainly not Gorman and we haven't seen nearly enough of Saggese to make that call. We are actually very thin at the hot corner in our system unless you're holding out for Jesus Baez.

My preference is to keep as strong of a position player core as possible for now. And then piece together pitching (through trades or signings) later on. If you're looking to make a position player for a pitcher type of trade (strength for weakness), that to me just seems like the type of trade that you don't make until you're right on the doorstep of making a winning roster. In other words, that might be the type of trade you make heading into 2027-28.

The other side of it is we do have these arbitration figures hitting for some of these guys including Donovan (and Burleson). That's going to make it interesting. I'd be more inclined to trade Burleson, and then rip up Donovan's arb years and try to offer him 5/55. If that doesn't materialize, then sure I'd see what I can get for him but for now I'd hope to include him in what I'm building.

Now, I'd look to move Contreras (along with the other large contract vets) on the basis that he's getting up there in age, and probably not part of the long term plan. I like the O'Hearn idea (because he can play RF too), clearing Burleson and then getting the 1B seat warm for Blaze Jordan to get his shot at some point.

If you would rather trade Donovan, I'm open to it. Just give me the name of the pitching prospect we're getting in return, then we can have a discussion about it.

[12xu]

Interesting comp, and there are some definite similarities. So far, I would say Donovan is the better fielder. Murphy had similar power stats as Donovan until 2016, when he went to Washington and hit 25 and 23 homers in his first two years there, when he was 31 and 32 years old. I still hold the guy in high esteem for his dominant performance in the 2015 NLCS, when he almost singlehandedly destroyed the small bears, hitting 4 homers and 6 RBI as the Mets swept the cubs 4-0.

In an earlier post I noted the possibility of Donovan being the best option for the Cards at third base if Bloom can find a way to trade Arenado. I do not like what I have seen of Gorman at the hot corner, and Saggese is still unproven.

[Hoosier59]

A nice realistic post! I’ve been saying the same thing. Just show me What the Cardinals are going to get for Donnie that makes the team better, instead of just keeping him. I believe if it were not for the toe injury, which led to the groin injury, Donnie would have led the league in hitting. He was on that pace until being injured. He finished the season strong, but there was a time there where he wasn’t 100% and I think it cost him that title. He’s the best clutch hitter on the team as well. The Cardinals are not going to get a pitcher for him that would compensate for everything he does for the team. I don’t understand why more posters here can’t see that?

[Hoosier59]

I might also add that, although Burleson hasn’t shown to be a #3, or #4 hitter YET, I still believe we haven’t seen his best season yet either. He made a lot of strides last year, both offensively and defensively. I still like him batting 6th, but we don’t have that #4 or #5 hitter on the team. He may yet become one. I don’t quite get why most posters don’t seem to think he can continue to improve?
I like a batting lineup that includes Donovan, Winn, Burleson, Herrera, and Wetherholt. I also think Crooks will eventually become a nice RBI man from the catchering position. That’s 6 out of 9. Surely Bloom can fill those other three spots in the next couple of years.

[CorneliusWolfe]

A nice realistic post! I’ve been saying the same thing. Just show me What the Cardinals are going to get for Donnie that makes the team better, instead of just keeping him. I believe if it were not for the toe injury, which led to the groin injury, Donnie would have led the league in hitting. He was on that pace until being injured. He finished the season strong, but there was a time there where he wasn’t 100% and I think it cost him that title. He’s the best clutch hitter on the team as well. The Cardinals are not going to get a pitcher for him that would compensate for everything he does for the team. I don’t understand why more posters here can’t see that?

I can see why he’d be great to keep around but the timeline could be problematic. He’ll be a FA in two years, which retaining him both greatly diminishes his trade value, and entails an extension on the wrong side of 30. There is also an actual high ceiling replacement waiting in the wings in JJW, with 2B being his best position.

The most sensible case for retaining him would be if the team foresees a quicker rebuild than most think is required.

If they can quickly put together a good rotation, with a good trade or FA and one of the pitchers on the farm can graduate and excel quickly (Doyle/Matthews?) AND equally as important, fix the longstanding outfield problems while simultaneously bolstering the RH hitting situation, and add a couple good BP arms, then they could field a good team and it would make sense to keep him long term.

That’s a lot of if’s and would also require aggressiveness in free agency and a turn in fortunes on actually hitting on some stud prospects and a couple of good trades without much prospect capital to barter. That is a LOT to ask and hope for and doesn’t sound in line with the new POBO’s outlined vision for the reduild.

Add it all up and I think that is why you see many calling for trading Donovan. It’s more respect for his game and associated value then any doubts about him not being worth retaining.

[12xu]

I understand what you and others think about the wisdom in trading Donovan, and to me it all depends on the return. The Cardinals traded a similar player at the age of 28 in Tommy Edman and all they got was Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham. If Bloom cannot do any better than that it would be stupid to give up Donovan.

[Carp4Cy]

A nice realistic post! I’ve been saying the same thing. Just show me What the Cardinals are going to get for Donnie that makes the team better, instead of just keeping him. I believe if it were not for the toe injury, which led to the groin injury, Donnie would have led the league in hitting. He was on that pace until being injured. He finished the season strong, but there was a time there where he wasn’t 100% and I think it cost him that title. He’s the best clutch hitter on the team as well. The Cardinals are not going to get a pitcher for him that would compensate for everything he does for the team. I don’t understand why more posters here can’t see that?

I agree that we should not trade Donny for a non top 20 prospect who will probably never post the career war that Donny still has in his future. Cost shouldn’t be an issue here as we’ve already shed around $100m. We need to be focused on building, not tearing down.

However i would consider a trade for a comparable proven vet position player that we really needed like a solid RHH OFer who can be extended for well beyond 2026 without turning 40 or late 30 something. His value in trade for a salaried vet is a lot better than his value in trade for a random prospect.

[Hoosier59]

A nice realistic post! I’ve been saying the same thing. Just show me What the Cardinals are going to get for Donnie that makes the team better, instead of just keeping him. I believe if it were not for the toe injury, which led to the groin injury, Donnie would have led the league in hitting. He was on that pace until being injured. He finished the season strong, but there was a time there where he wasn’t 100% and I think it cost him that title. He’s the best clutch hitter on the team as well. The Cardinals are not going to get a pitcher for him that would compensate for everything he does for the team. I don’t understand why more posters here can’t see that?

I agree that we should not trade Donny for a non top 20 prospect who will probably never post the career war that Donny still has in his future. Cost shouldn’t be an issue here as we’ve already shed around $100m. We need to be focused on building, not tearing down.

However i would consider a trade for a comparable proven vet position player that we really needed like a solid RHH OFer who can be extended for well beyond 2026 without turning 40 or late 30 something. His value in trade for a salaried vet is a lot better than his value in trade for a random prospect.

I agree that that is one of the Cardinals’ greatest needs, but I’ve looked at other teams’ rosters and I don’t see a player that the Cardinals can realistically acquire. They tried to acquire Rooker from the A’s I recently read, but were unable to do so. They tried and the A’s extended him instead. The cost to get him now would be even higher, if even possible.
Taylor Ward is a possibility, he hits home runs, but strikes out a ton and doesnt hit for much average. He won’t come cheap!
I’ve looked at teams’ minor league players and there’s no one I’d trade Donovan for that other teams would probably be willing to trade.
The Cardinals best hope is that Driveline is able to do miracles with Jordan Walker, or that Josh Baez’s season wasnt a fluke, and he continues to improve !

[lordoffatness]

I understand what you and others think about the wisdom in trading Donovan, and to me it all depends on the return. The Cardinals traded a similar player at the age of 28 in Tommy Edman and all they got was Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham. If Bloom cannot do any better than that it would be stupid to give up Donovan.

100% depends on the return.

I don’t think Edman is a good comp. He was a good baserunner and fielder, but basically a career .700 OPS hitter that missed the first 100 games of the season.

Murphy is an interesting comp, but Murphy also basically fell off a cliff after his age 32 season which illustrates the concerns with extending Donovan. Maybe he’ll age well, but that’s a risky gamble if you can sell high now and get a good return.

Another interesting comp could be Justin Turner. He had his breakout season at age 29. He averaged 140 OPS+ from age 29-34 which who knows if Donovan will ever reach that. He’s been around a 120 OPS+ hitter in his career.

[ecleme22]

I watched this video of Tony LaRussa being interviewed. He was going back to 2001.

Pujols was a rookie. McGwire got hurt.

Albert went to Tony and said I guess I need to start providing more power. Tony said don’t change a thing..


Conversely, I remember after Donovan’s great rookie season, the Cardinals wanted him to hit for more power. His walk rate has never been the same.

Can you imagine if Tony was Donovan’s coach? He would probably have less Home runs, but his walk rate would probably be around 12%. And he would be a bigger beast than he is now.

[12xu]

Edman and Donovan are both versatile infielders who can also play in the OF. Edman is speedier, so he can play CF, while Donovan has mostly been limited to LF. Donovan is the more patient hitter who will take a walk, and thus has a better OBP. He does not strike out as much as Edman. IMO Donovan is the better all around player, but they are similar in many ways.

[C-Unit]

I might also add that, although Burleson hasn’t shown to be a #3, or #4 hitter YET, I still believe we haven’t seen his best season yet either. He made a lot of strides last year, both offensively and defensively. I still like him batting 6th, but we don’t have that #4 or #5 hitter on the team. He may yet become one. I don’t quite get why most posters don’t seem to think he can continue to improve?
I like a batting lineup that includes Donovan, Winn, Burleson, Herrera, and Wetherholt. I also think Crooks will eventually become a nice RBI man from the catchering position. That’s 6 out of 9. Surely Bloom can fill those other three spots in the next couple of years.

It is possible with Burleson. I like the upside you present of having several positions figured out and it's very possible.

I guess if I'm considering all the factors, including the arbitration, Donovan is the one out of these two I'd be more inclined to pay and keep.

The comp I've arrived at for Burleson is Mitch Moreland. And if his bbreference page doesn't look eerily similar... however Burleson may still improve yet (Burleson 39 BB to 79 SO last year which was better than what Moreland typically did).

I guess Burleson is the one to me that you should capitalize on of there is another team so enticed by him. Then I guess we return to Donovan on that same note. Both players could either be seen as valuable or replaceable, under different lights. We'll just have to see how it all plays out...

[RipRipulski]

As far as third base is concerned, Deniei Ortiz quietly had a very nice year at double A though I don’t know anything about D

[C-Unit]

As far as third base is concerned, Deniei Ortiz quietly had a very nice year at double A though I don’t know anything about D

3rd base seems like one of the hardest positions to project from the minors doesn't it.

Jordan Walker was a 3rd baseman not long ago. Wasn't Stephen Piscotty a 3rd baseman in the minors?

It just seems like one of those don't count your chickens before they hatch type of positions.