Gorman, the IF version of Joc Pederson?

[Basil Shabazz]

If Gorman turns out to be the IF version of a Joc Pederson, is he a commodity to have until he reaches free agency?

We have Gorman for his age 26,27,28 seasons until he reaches free agency. If you roll him out on an everyday basis for those years and get 25+ HRs, .780+ OPS, is he a commodity? The key would be to flip him before he reaches free agency and have a 3B ready to go in 2028.

Joc provided this and then some for LAD, all while slashing .230 .336 .470 .806 in his 2500+ LAD PAs. He has since gone on to be a 1 year contract FA hired gun as a LHB. He has made good money doing so.

We need to start being smarter about when we retain players and when we part ways with them. The way we handle Gorman could be a case study in this.

I think he is fine for the cost-controlled 3B w/ power for the next few years.

All of this assumes he is healthy enough to provide 130+ games in the field.

[Strummer Jones]

You know, that's not the most asinine thing I've read. I think it's got some merit.

Both guys were/are capable of absolutely carrying teams but also absolutely going Arctic cold for equally long stretches.

He hasn't had the opportunity yet, but I could also absolutely see Gorman lighting up a post-season. There seems like there's 1-2 high variance lefty bats that absolutely shine in October.

Here's my thoughts. Gorman is absolutely NOT untradeable. He's someone I could see a team overpaying for, and I'd leap at the chance if it came. But also, he's probably our best option for third base unless the team wants to commit to Donovan/Saggese at second base and sticking Weatherholt at third base or vice versa. I think Arenado is as good as gone.

But unless he becomes like Austin Riley was when he was hitting 30+ homers a year, there's no way I even entertain keeping Gorman past his free agency year.

[Talkin' Baseball]

Good comp.

[Basil Shabazz]

We need a lineup where a guy like Gorman bats 6th or 7th and is left alone to be what he is.

[Melville]

If Gorman turns out to be the IF version of a Joc Pederson, is he a commodity to have until he reaches free agency?

We have Gorman for his age 26,27,28 seasons until he reaches free agency. If you roll him out on an everyday basis for those years and get 25+ HRs, .780+ OPS, is he a commodity? The key would be to flip him before he reaches free agency and have a 3B ready to go in 2028.

Joc provided this and then some for LAD, all while slashing .230 .336 .470 .806 in his 2500+ LAD PAs. He has since gone on to be a 1 year contract FA hired gun as a LHB. He has made good money doing so.

We need to start being smarter about when we retain players and when we part ways with them. The way we handle Gorman could be a case study in this.

I think he is fine for the cost-controlled 3B w/ power for the next few years.

All of this assumes he is healthy enough to provide 130+ games in the field.

Gorman is a higher ceiling version of Max Muncy as a 3B.
Yes, STL would be wise to buy out his remaining years and tack on 2 more years of control via an extension this fall.

[An Old Friend]

If Gorman turns out to be the IF version of a Joc Pederson, is he a commodity to have until he reaches free agency?

We have Gorman for his age 26,27,28 seasons until he reaches free agency. If you roll him out on an everyday basis for those years and get 25+ HRs, .780+ OPS, is he a commodity? The key would be to flip him before he reaches free agency and have a 3B ready to go in 2028.

Joc provided this and then some for LAD, all while slashing .230 .336 .470 .806 in his 2500+ LAD PAs. He has since gone on to be a 1 year contract FA hired gun as a LHB. He has made good money doing so.

We need to start being smarter about when we retain players and when we part ways with them. The way we handle Gorman could be a case study in this.

I think he is fine for the cost-controlled 3B w/ power for the next few years.

All of this assumes he is healthy enough to provide 130+ games in the field.

Could dream on him being a lite version of Kyle Schwarber.

Schwarber age-24: .211/.315/.467 - 99 OPS+
Gorman age-25: .220/.317/.409 - 103 OPS+

Gorman’s age-23 season looks a lot like Schwarber at 25.

That outcome exists, a low .200’s average with big power and decent on-base supported by a strong walk rate.

Through their age-25 seasons, acknowledging that they got there in different ways:

Schwarber - .228/.339/.470 - .809 OPS / 112 OPS+
3.2 bWAR, 72 HR, 163 RBI

Gorman - .222/.305/.430 - .734 OPS / 103 OPS+
4.2 bWAR, 74 HR, 205 RBI

[Basil Shabazz]

The difference between NoGo and TGKS is pitch recognition. One will take a walk in order to get a mashable ball. The other won't as much.

[An Old Friend]

The difference between NoGo and TGKS is pitch recognition. One will take a walk in order to get a mashable ball. The other won't as much.

Schwarber age-24:
12% walk rate
30% strikeout rate
24.8% chase rate
78.4% zone contact

Gorman age-25:
12.7% walk rate
31% strikeout rate
25.8% chase rate
80.1% zone contact rate

[greyhawk]

The difference between NoGo and TGKS is pitch recognition. One will take a walk in order to get a mashable ball. The other won't as much.

If you compare 30-32 yr old Schwarber to Gorman this is correct

[ecleme22]

We need a lineup where a guy like Gorman bats 6th or 7th and is left alone to be what he is.

Well, if he's a true Pederson, then he's MOTO vs RHP.


But in general, of course if NG produces like JP it would be amazing.

[makesnosense]

I don't believe there is any chance Gorman can be Pederaon, let alone Muncy or Schwraber. But one thing to remember those three have all played on teams with stacked lineups. They were told to try and hit HRs because there were plenty of bats. STL doesn't have that and may not for the foreseeable future.

[rockondlouie]

The difference between NoGo and TGKS is pitch recognition. One will take a walk in order to get a mashable ball. The other won't as much.

Bingo, and Gorman has shown better plate discipline the past couple months taking 20 walks in his 144 PA's.

TGKS Age 22 - 25
1274 PA's
72 HR
163 RBI
174 BB's
379 KO's
.228 .339 .470 .809

Gorman Age 22 - 25
1517 PA's
74 HR
205 RBI
158 BB's
507 KO's
.222 .305 .430 .734

[An Old Friend]

I don't believe there is any chance Gorman can be Pederaon, let alone Muncy or Schwraber. But one thing to remember those three have all played on teams with stacked lineups. They were told to try and hit HRs because there were plenty of bats. STL doesn't have that and may not for the foreseeable future.

I think you should consider what those players looked like at the same age… and then maybe articulate why you don’t believe there’s any chance that he’s could have a similar outcome.

Pederson through age 25:
62 HR, 157 RBI, slashed .222/.345/.435 - 113 OPS+

[ecleme22]

The difference between NoGo and TGKS is pitch recognition. One will take a walk in order to get a mashable ball. The other won't as much.

Fixed it for you:

The difference between NoGo and TGKS is elite pitch recognition.

Your second sentence implies elite pitch recognition is a choice.


The good news is that Gorman does have some talent in this. He's not like a Randal Grichuk.

[ecleme22]

I don't believe there is any chance Gorman can be Pederaon, let alone Muncy or Schwraber. But one thing to remember those three have all played on teams with stacked lineups. They were told to try and hit HRs because there were plenty of bats. STL doesn't have that and may not for the foreseeable future.

I think you should consider what those players looked like at the same age… and then maybe articulate why you don’t believe there’s any chance that he’s could have a similar outcome.

Pederson through age 25:
62 HR, 157 RBI, slashed .222/.345/.435 - 113 OPS+

'makesnosense's' sentence structure is weird, implying Pederson is better than Muncy and TGKS.

And though all three have played on teams with stacked lineups, JP has played on the so so Giants and TGKS w the Nationals.

Lastly the line: "They were told to try and hit HRs because there were plenty of bats" is bull[shirt].

[Cusecards]

We need a lineup where a guy like Gorman bats 6th or 7th and is left alone to be what he is.

Well said!
At the moment I think they have the capability to put together some sort of top 5 or 6 with a combination of:
Winn
JJ
Donovan
Burleson
Contreras
Herrera
Until traded I’d throw in Arenado at least at #6 vs LH pitching.
Walker? Too iffy
Noot? Too streaky. I think he gets dealt.
Scott? Has the speed to hit leadoff but nowhere near the OBP!
Crooks? TBD