Are the Cards really that far away?

[JDW]

So not unusual to read on here how bad the Cards are, whether it's tear it all down or the Cards just stink type responses.
Well, guess I'm more optimistic about the future than that, but whether that's warranted IDK.
Anyway, here's a projected 2026 lineup with just the current personnel.

Donovan 2B or 3B, Herrera either LF or DH, Wetherholt 3B or 2B, Contreras 1B, Burleson DH or LF, Winn SS, Crooks/Pozo C, Noot/Walker RF, VS2 CF. Bench of one of the C's, Gorman, Saggese and Church. Bernal not ready yet, instead in AAA biding his time, as is Baez.

So the difference between Wetherholt and Arenado to this point of the season could be about 2 wins, as NA is sitting currently in the +1 bWAR range, and I don't think it unrealistic to project at this point next season JJW could be in the current Donovan range of around +3.
The dif between the C's to date could be about 1 win, so positionally we picked up 3 wins, so instead of 53-51 in this hypothetical, we're now up to 56-48.

OK, now for the rotation. Maybe McGreevy over Fedde would be 2 wins better, as the Cards record in Fedde starts is ugly.
Be kind of nice projecting a Doyle over Mikolas difference, but I don't think Doyle starts the 2026 season is STL, so I'm going with a random SP guy in the system who is 1 win better than Miles, which doesn't seem to be much of a stretch. Alright, another 3 wins year over year and now we're up to 59-45.
A healthier Herrera now relieved of any C duties might gain another win, so I'll remain silly and now say 60- 44, why not, lol. Going by this year, that puts the Cards right up there with the best teams............... Wow, just noticed the Tigers have lost 9 of their last 10. ahh, that's too bad.

Now post deadline, we probably trade away BP guys that have helped the team to this point, so the last 2 months may look bad before the Cards can strive to revamp to an again effective BP for 2026, but 2026 has some promise imo, for what that's not worth, and that's w/o adding anything from outside the org. About everybody thinks the Cards need to add a big bat, and maybe that's right, but possibly adding a healthier Herrera with Wetherholt is that big win in offensive production.

Anyway, thanks for your time if you read this mess.

[sikeston bulldog2]

So not unusual to read on here how bad the Cards are, whether it's tear it all down or the Cards just stink type responses.
Well, guess I'm more optimistic about the future than that, but whether that's warranted IDK.
Anyway, here's a projected 2026 lineup with just the current personnel.

Donovan 2B or 3B, Herrera either LF or DH, Wetherholt 3B or 2B, Contreras 1B, Burleson DH or LF, Winn SS, Crooks/Pozo C, Noot/Walker RF, VS2 CF. Bench of one of the C's, Gorman, Saggese and Church. Bernal not ready yet, instead in AAA biding his time, as is Baez.

So the difference between Wetherholt and Arenado to this point of the season could be about 2 wins, as NA is sitting currently in the +1 bWAR range, and I don't think it unrealistic to project at this point next season JJW could be in the current Donovan range of around +3.
The dif between the C's to date could be about 1 win, so positionally we picked up 3 wins, so instead of 53-51 in this hypothetical, we're now up to 56-48.

OK, now for the rotation. Maybe McGreevy over Fedde would be 2 wins better, as the Cards record in Fedde starts is ugly.
Be kind of nice projecting a Doyle over Mikolas difference, but I don't think Doyle starts the 2026 season is STL, so I'm going with a random SP guy in the system who is 1 win better than Miles, which doesn't seem to be much of a stretch. Alright, another 3 wins year over year and now we're up to 59-45.
A healthier Herrera now relieved of any C duties might gain another win, so I'll remain silly and now say 60- 44, why not, lol. Going by this year, that puts the Cards right up there with the best teams............... Wow, just noticed the Tigers have lost 9 of their last 10. ahh, that's too bad.

Now post deadline, we probably trade away BP guys that have helped the team to this point, so the last 2 months may look bad before the Cards can strive to revamp to an again effective BP for 2026, but 2026 has some promise imo, for what that's not worth, and that's w/o adding anything from outside the org. About everybody thinks the Cards need to add a big bat, and maybe that's right, but possibly adding a healthier Herrera with Wetherholt is that big win in offensive production.

Anyway, thanks for your time if you read this mess.

My play is JJ at third, can you say George Brett. Winn at SS, Donovan at second. Best nfield in baseball. That’s where I start.

[greyhawk]

nice post and i respect your opinion -- but how far away from what? printing playoff tickets for the first round? i know we have been spoiled but until we have some difference makers in the rotation and in the batters box it may possibly be just a bit better team than avg which can get you into the playoffs. Here's hoping some of the youngsters are better and/or get better and can become a difference maker... no one on this team right now qualifies for that moniker.

[WaltsSuccessor]

nice post and i respect your opinion -- but how far away from what? printing playoff tickets for the first round? i know we have been spoiled but until we have some difference makers in the rotation and in the batters box it may possibly be just a bit better team than avg which can get you into the playoffs. Here's hoping some of the youngsters are better and/or get better and can become a difference maker... no one on this team right now qualifies for that moniker.

Pretty much this.

There are lots of reasons to be more optimistic for 2026 than we were for 2025 as the OP stated. Few things go right and we can win the division. But without multiple all-stars, we can't expect to seriously compete for a World Series.

[An Old Friend]

They could be in a good spot in 2027 or 2028, but they need high end SP… probably 2 of them.

Can dream on Doyle being one of them and Liberatore being a 2/3 innings-eating workhorse… but otherwise they have some serious work to do.

[BrummerStealsHome]

No, not far away at all, but bridging what gap there is won't be easy. We STILL need improvement in the lead-off spot. We still need more quality arms in the rotation. And, most of all, we need a field management team that manages a pitching staff well.

[3dender]

They could be in a good spot in 2027 or 2028, but they need high end SP… probably 2 of them.

This is key... for 2026 they have a rotation of two 2-3 starters, one 3-4, and one 5-6. And there's no indication they're going to pursue an actual ace via FA/trade. So yes they're pretty freakin far away, basically as far away as the prayer that one of Roby, Mathews or Doyle become an ace and one more of that trio becomes a solid 2-3. That's 3 years away at best.

[Clubmaker2]

get a number two pitcher and two good bullpen arms to replace Maton/RH. ...and they are in the thick of it. That number two pitcher will change the mojo of the team. or will they wait out the CBA lockout?

[Carp4Cy]

nice post and i respect your opinion -- but how far away from what? printing playoff tickets for the first round? i know we have been spoiled but until we have some difference makers in the rotation and in the batters box it may possibly be just a bit better team than avg which can get you into the playoffs. Here's hoping some of the youngsters are better and/or get better and can become a difference maker... no one on this team right now qualifies for that moniker.

This 2026 roster leaves a hell of a lot of dry powder, so yeah, there's opportunity to spend or trade for players under $ contracts and fill several those holes. There is a path to winning a playoff series or more.

[Ronnie Dobbs]

I don't think we're as bad as some people act around here. I mean, at our nadir we were 71-91, which is awful, don't get me wrong. But otherwise we've been .500 or so at worst. Again, that's not good, and Cardinals fans should expect more. Cardinals fans should consider .500 teams a failure, but in the grand scheme of MLB, there are a lot of teams that would love to be able to be a .500 team at worst.

But fans have the right to be upset. We were promised all this added revenue from a new stadium and a ballpark village that killed downtown businesses and a new TV, yet did we ever really move from top 12 or so in payroll after all that? Now we may not even be able to afford that? And then the FO is going to condescend to us about not showing up at the ballpark and reducing payroll even more??

But I got off on a tangent. Back to the OP, I don't think we're that far off. But that's what's frustrating about this "reset." They should have seen the writing on the wall in 2023 and just went all the way with it. This would be year number two of figuring out what we have at the MLB level with a lot of our younger players, plus a likelier a deeper farm system because we would have traded off a few more players that we're going to get less of a return for now, if we can even trade them.

I'm thinking next year is going to be another rough year. 2027 might be more realistic to be truly competitive, but that basically means that we'll have gone from 2023-2026, four years, really not being truly competitive. And 2027 could be an optimistic timeline.

[JuanAgosto]

There is a lot of work to do. SP needs at least 2 additions. Will need to find a closer if Helsley is dealt. And need a RH power bat.

[82birds]

There is a lot of work to do. SP needs at least 2 additions. Will need to find a closer if Helsley is dealt. And need a RH power bat.

^^^THIS^^^

[Banner29]

I don't think we're as bad as some people act around here. I mean, at our nadir we were 71-91, which is awful, don't get me wrong. But otherwise we've been .500 or so at worst. Again, that's not good, and Cardinals fans should expect more. Cardinals fans should consider .500 teams a failure, but in the grand scheme of MLB, there are a lot of teams that would love to be able to be a .500 team at worst.

But fans have the right to be upset. We were promised all this added revenue from a new stadium and a ballpark village that killed downtown businesses and a new TV, yet did we ever really move from top 12 or so in payroll after all that? Now we may not even be able to afford that? And then the FO is going to condescend to us about not showing up at the ballpark and reducing payroll even more??

But I got off on a tangent. Back to the OP, I don't think we're that far off. But that's what's frustrating about this "reset." They should have seen the writing on the wall in 2023 and just went all the way with it. This would be year number two of figuring out what we have at the MLB level with a lot of our younger players, plus a likelier a deeper farm system because we would have traded off a few more players that we're going to get less of a return for now, if we can even trade them.

I'm thinking next year is going to be another rough year. 2027 might be more realistic to be truly competitive, but that basically means that we'll have gone from 2023-2026, four years, really not being truly competitive. And 2027 could be an optimistic timeline.

2027 will almost for sure be a lockout year. So you’re looking at 4 years straight of uninteresting baseball followed by a year of no baseball due to greed and ego.

No good outcome from that. Especially in a city where butts in seats is everything

[rockondlouie]

Bloom needs to have the same $175+M payroll Mo was given if BDWJr wants to field a true playoff team and get back to 3+M.

If Dewitt forces him to field a team almost exclusively filled from within, then the odds are strong they'll never compete and Dewitt will continue to see sub 20,000 crowds most games.

He's cut a tremendous amount of money ($50+M) off the 2024 payroll already, another $30+M will fall of this season (even more if they deal NADO).

So Dewitt can't keep crying poormouth, the money's there for a $175M payroll in 2026.

[Carp4Cy]

I don't think we're as bad as some people act around here. I mean, at our nadir we were 71-91, which is awful, don't get me wrong. But otherwise we've been .500 or so at worst. Again, that's not good, and Cardinals fans should expect more. Cardinals fans should consider .500 teams a failure, but in the grand scheme of MLB, there are a lot of teams that would love to be able to be a .500 team at worst.

But fans have the right to be upset. We were promised all this added revenue from a new stadium and a ballpark village that killed downtown businesses and a new TV, yet did we ever really move from top 12 or so in payroll after all that? Now we may not even be able to afford that? And then the FO is going to condescend to us about not showing up at the ballpark and reducing payroll even more??

But I got off on a tangent. Back to the OP, I don't think we're that far off. But that's what's frustrating about this "reset." They should have seen the writing on the wall in 2023 and just went all the way with it. This would be year number two of figuring out what we have at the MLB level with a lot of our younger players, plus a likelier a deeper farm system because we would have traded off a few more players that we're going to get less of a return for now, if we can even trade them.

I'm thinking next year is going to be another rough year. 2027 might be more realistic to be truly competitive, but that basically means that we'll have gone from 2023-2026, four years, really not being truly competitive. And 2027 could be an optimistic timeline.

That may be what happens, but its unnecessary to take that long, and risks losing more fans forever. We have so much payroll coming off the books the past 2 years there is plenty of room to spend. Our 2 franchise prospects should be ready in 2026 - JJW at the start and Doyle likely at some point during the season. Matthews, Roby, Hence, Robberse, etc are as likely to be ready in 2026 as they are to never be MLB producers, so I wouldn't say they are worth putting the franchise on hold for. Who else projects 3+ WAR in 2027 and absolutely won't be ready in 2026? We don't have that level of prospect that far away. And the lower prospects can be filled in for a short contracts elsewhere in the meantime. Its time to take a risk, spend the money weve been saving, and build a team around JJW (and hopefully Doyle) while we have them for cheap and not waste their years just waiting until someone is ready to spend.

[Carp4Cy]

I don't think we're as bad as some people act around here. I mean, at our nadir we were 71-91, which is awful, don't get me wrong. But otherwise we've been .500 or so at worst. Again, that's not good, and Cardinals fans should expect more. Cardinals fans should consider .500 teams a failure, but in the grand scheme of MLB, there are a lot of teams that would love to be able to be a .500 team at worst.

But fans have the right to be upset. We were promised all this added revenue from a new stadium and a ballpark village that killed downtown businesses and a new TV, yet did we ever really move from top 12 or so in payroll after all that? Now we may not even be able to afford that? And then the FO is going to condescend to us about not showing up at the ballpark and reducing payroll even more??

But I got off on a tangent. Back to the OP, I don't think we're that far off. But that's what's frustrating about this "reset." They should have seen the writing on the wall in 2023 and just went all the way with it. This would be year number two of figuring out what we have at the MLB level with a lot of our younger players, plus a likelier a deeper farm system because we would have traded off a few more players that we're going to get less of a return for now, if we can even trade them.

I'm thinking next year is going to be another rough year. 2027 might be more realistic to be truly competitive, but that basically means that we'll have gone from 2023-2026, four years, really not being truly competitive. And 2027 could be an optimistic timeline.

2027 will almost for sure be a lockout year. So you’re looking at 4 years straight of uninteresting baseball followed by a year of no baseball due to greed and ego.

No good outcome from that. Especially in a city where butts in seats is everything

All the more reason Bloom needs to go for it in 2026. Hand out some 2 year contracts knowing that the 2027 salaries won't even have to be paid. Instant savings.