Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
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Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
Law in today's Athletic (sorry if this is a repeat):
"I think the St. Louis Cardinals had my favorite Day 1 group based on their top two picks.
"They took my top pitcher, Liam Doyle, at No. 5. He has one of the best fastballs in the draft class, a deceptive delivery, and a second-plus pitch in the splitter. He dominated early against bad competition, then continued to perform well in the SEC. The Cardinals followed up that pick with Ryan Mitchell at No. 55, getting what I thought was a first-round bat in need of a new position, a strong kid who makes excellent swing decisions and might come into some power.
Right-hander Tanner Franklin was a little bit of a reach for me at pick 72, but he’(poop) triple-digits with the fastball, needing another pitch to profile as a good reliever. First baseman Jack Gurevitch, their third-rounder, was more of a fourth- or fifth-rounder, but he did have a tremendous year for the University of San Diego, hitting .371/.477/.681 with almost as many walks as strikeouts."
More on Doyle: "I wouldn’t hesitate to start him at least in Double A."
Law's final rankings (not draft position) had Mitchell at #30.
"Mitchell was one of the most advanced and disciplined hitters on the showcase circuit last year, with whiff and chase rates of 16 percent each in almost 400 pitches at tracked events; on pitches well out of the zone (WOOZ?) his chase rate dropped to just 7 percent. He takes a long stride forward but keeps his weight back with excellent balance through contact, with fringy power but some projection to get to average. He doesn’t throw well at all, however, and will have to move off shortstop, possibly to second base, more likely to center, and in the worst-case scenario to left. He’s committed to Georgia Tech."
"I think the St. Louis Cardinals had my favorite Day 1 group based on their top two picks.
"They took my top pitcher, Liam Doyle, at No. 5. He has one of the best fastballs in the draft class, a deceptive delivery, and a second-plus pitch in the splitter. He dominated early against bad competition, then continued to perform well in the SEC. The Cardinals followed up that pick with Ryan Mitchell at No. 55, getting what I thought was a first-round bat in need of a new position, a strong kid who makes excellent swing decisions and might come into some power.
Right-hander Tanner Franklin was a little bit of a reach for me at pick 72, but he’(poop) triple-digits with the fastball, needing another pitch to profile as a good reliever. First baseman Jack Gurevitch, their third-rounder, was more of a fourth- or fifth-rounder, but he did have a tremendous year for the University of San Diego, hitting .371/.477/.681 with almost as many walks as strikeouts."
More on Doyle: "I wouldn’t hesitate to start him at least in Double A."
Law's final rankings (not draft position) had Mitchell at #30.
"Mitchell was one of the most advanced and disciplined hitters on the showcase circuit last year, with whiff and chase rates of 16 percent each in almost 400 pitches at tracked events; on pitches well out of the zone (WOOZ?) his chase rate dropped to just 7 percent. He takes a long stride forward but keeps his weight back with excellent balance through contact, with fringy power but some projection to get to average. He doesn’t throw well at all, however, and will have to move off shortstop, possibly to second base, more likely to center, and in the worst-case scenario to left. He’s committed to Georgia Tech."
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Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
Interesting. I'll take it with a grain of salt considering he washed out as a GM himself...
Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
So was Bowden. McDaniel was in some lower-level positions at several organizations, but then Fangraphs, now MLB. The others - Mayo and the BA editor JJ Cooper are journalists - is that better?TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑14 Jul 2025 17:39 pm Interesting. I'll take it with a grain of salt considering he washed out as a GM himself...
Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
It’s all a crapshoot. Nobody knows. Some say Doyle is a starter, and. He was pick 5, 25 or 105. I’ve seen someone say he maxes out as a closer. If these guys had to be accurate, they’d all fail. It’s not a knock on them. Just reality
Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
Seattle had a good draft getting Anderson who they had on the top of their board. Also at 35 got the best catcher available who profiles similar to what Cal Raleigh profiled at a few years ago.
Interesting that the Cards got one of their upper management person from Seattle and that they drafted lots of around pitchers around 6’2”. This is what the Mariners have done last few years as they see this as a point of opportunity as teams normally look at pitchers 6’4” or taller hoping they can teach them skills. Lots of good pitchers fall thru the cracks who are shorter but not too short.
Interesting that the Cards got one of their upper management person from Seattle and that they drafted lots of around pitchers around 6’2”. This is what the Mariners have done last few years as they see this as a point of opportunity as teams normally look at pitchers 6’4” or taller hoping they can teach them skills. Lots of good pitchers fall thru the cracks who are shorter but not too short.
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Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
Rare for Law to like anything we do
Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
Agree, that's why I found it more interesting.
Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
Obviously we’re years away from a proper analysis of any draft.
Couldn’t have worked out much better getting JJ last year at #7.
Fingers crossed!
Couldn’t have worked out much better getting JJ last year at #7.
Fingers crossed!
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Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
So are you worried.....
Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
He was never a GMTraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑14 Jul 2025 17:39 pm Interesting. I'll take it with a grain of salt considering he washed out as a GM himself...
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Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
Yeah, I thought that was a canard.Futuregm2 wrote: ↑14 Jul 2025 19:09 pmHe was never a GMTraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑14 Jul 2025 17:39 pm Interesting. I'll take it with a grain of salt considering he washed out as a GM himself...
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Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
Wasn't knocking you for posting. I appreciate it. I'm just not a fan of LawClassicO wrote: ↑14 Jul 2025 17:48 pmSo was Bowden. McDaniel was in some lower-level positions at several organizations, but then Fangraphs, now MLB. The others - Mayo and the BA editor JJ Cooper are journalists - is that better?TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑14 Jul 2025 17:39 pm Interesting. I'll take it with a grain of salt considering he washed out as a GM himself...
Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
I don’t love him. I argued with him in the comment section of the Athletic and he wouldn’t back down even though he was clearly wrong. He made excuses.TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑14 Jul 2025 20:37 pmWasn't knocking you for posting. I appreciate it. I'm just not a fan of LawClassicO wrote: ↑14 Jul 2025 17:48 pmSo was Bowden. McDaniel was in some lower-level positions at several organizations, but then Fangraphs, now MLB. The others - Mayo and the BA editor JJ Cooper are journalists - is that better?TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑14 Jul 2025 17:39 pm Interesting. I'll take it with a grain of salt considering he washed out as a GM himself...
But do I think he knows more than almost all, if not all, of the people on CT!?
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Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
He knows his stuff and I read and listen when he talks. I'm just being a child because I think he comes off as a smug know-it-all
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Re: Keith Law favorite Day 1 draft = Cards
To anybody who cares:TraveledLessRoad wrote: ↑14 Jul 2025 21:35 pm He knows his stuff and I read and listen when he talks. I'm just being a child because I think he comes off as a smug know-it-all
Who did Law like in the 2018 Draft? 2017? 2019?
Law is generally and idiot who thinks he knows a lot more than he really knows. For all I know, his picks might always be wrong.