It seems like the lower the prospect level, the greater the chance of success.

[Bully4you]

Gorman, Walker, Wong, Carlson, Rasmus, Miller etc.
Vs. Burlseson, Donovan, Edman, Carpenter, Craig.
Strange how that works.
Maybe I better revise my expectations for JJ?

[mattmitchl44]

As a tangent to the OP, I would note that because some prospects that we have high expectations for don't work out is not a reason to depend less on developing cost controlled young players. Rather, because we know 1/3 or 1/2 of prospects may not pan out , that is why the Cardinals need to acquire, develop, and keep even MORE prospects to ensure they have the ~25 fWAR of cost controlled players they need to be competitive.

[Wattage]

Gorman, Walker, Wong, Carlson, Rasmus, Miller etc.
Vs. Burlseson, Donovan, Edman, Carpenter, Craig.
Strange how that works.
Maybe I better revise my expectations for JJ?

Some of those guys like rasmus and wong were nof busts at all and had solid careers- people just had sky high expectations and were disappointed despite very solid production

[Jatalk]

In some cases expectations are set too high by the organization that raises fan expectations.

[3dender]

Gorman, Walker, Wong, Carlson, Rasmus, Miller etc.
Vs. Burlseson, Donovan, Edman, Carpenter, Craig.
Strange how that works.
Maybe I better revise my expectations for JJ?

Some of those guys like rasmus and wong were nof busts at all and had solid careers- people just had sky high expectations and were disappointed despite very solid production

Yup, a 20 WAR career from both Wong and Rasmus is a really good outcome from a #22/#28 (respectively) overall pick, many of which never even make it to the bigs.

The only problem is the org/fan hype on these guys, which fans never seem to learn how to guard against. E.g. I'd bet most people right now would say they'd be really disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

[JDW]

Gorman, Walker, Wong, Carlson, Rasmus, Miller etc.
Vs. Burlseson, Donovan, Edman, Carpenter, Craig.
Strange how that works.
Maybe I better revise my expectations for JJ?

Some of those guys like rasmus and wong were nof busts at all and had solid careers- people just had sky high expectations and were disappointed despite very solid production

Yup, a 20 WAR career from both Wong and Rasmus is a really good outcome from a #22/#28 (respectively) overall pick, many of which never even make it to the bigs.

The only problem is the org/fan hype on these guys, which fans never seem to learn how to guard against. E.g. I'd bet most people right now would say they'd be really disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

Darn it 3dender for calling me out, but yes, I'll be disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

[3dender]

Gorman, Walker, Wong, Carlson, Rasmus, Miller etc.
Vs. Burlseson, Donovan, Edman, Carpenter, Craig.
Strange how that works.
Maybe I better revise my expectations for JJ?

Some of those guys like rasmus and wong were nof busts at all and had solid careers- people just had sky high expectations and were disappointed despite very solid production

Yup, a 20 WAR career from both Wong and Rasmus is a really good outcome from a #22/#28 (respectively) overall pick, many of which never even make it to the bigs.

The only problem is the org/fan hype on these guys, which fans never seem to learn how to guard against. E.g. I'd bet most people right now would say they'd be really disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

Darn it 3dender for calling me out, but yes, I'll be disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

To be fair, #7 is a different tier of prospect than 20-something. (And I'd also be disappointed )

[mattmitchl44]

Gorman, Walker, Wong, Carlson, Rasmus, Miller etc.
Vs. Burlseson, Donovan, Edman, Carpenter, Craig.
Strange how that works.
Maybe I better revise my expectations for JJ?

Some of those guys like rasmus and wong were nof busts at all and had solid careers- people just had sky high expectations and were disappointed despite very solid production

Yup, a 20 WAR career from both Wong and Rasmus is a really good outcome from a #22/#28 (respectively) overall pick, many of which never even make it to the bigs.

The only problem is the org/fan hype on these guys, which fans never seem to learn how to guard against. E.g. I'd bet most people right now would say they'd be really disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

Darn it 3dender for calling me out, but yes, I'll be disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

In the last 50 years, only 441 position players have had careers of 20 fWAR or more.

[sikeston bulldog2]

As a tangent to the OP, I would note that because some prospects that we have high expectations for don't work out is not a reason to depend less on developing cost controlled young players. Rather, because we know 1/3 or 1/2 of prospects may not pan out , that is why the Cardinals need to acquire, develop, and keep even MORE prospects to ensure they have the ~25 fWAR of cost controlled players they need to be competitive.

It’s like Army recruiting. Gotta make 100 contacts to ensure you get 10 appointments. Then 5 must test, then 3 must physical, then 1 must join.

All that quantity just to get one contract.

[Futuregm2]

Gorman, Walker, Wong, Carlson, Rasmus, Miller etc.
Vs. Burlseson, Donovan, Edman, Carpenter, Craig.
Strange how that works.
Maybe I better revise my expectations for JJ?

Some of those guys like rasmus and wong were nof busts at all and had solid careers- people just had sky high expectations and were disappointed despite very solid production

Yup, a 20 WAR career from both Wong and Rasmus is a really good outcome from a #22/#28 (respectively) overall pick, many of which never even make it to the bigs.

The only problem is the org/fan hype on these guys, which fans never seem to learn how to guard against. E.g. I'd bet most people right now would say they'd be really disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

Agreed, there have been drafts where maybe 1 or 2 of the top 10-15 picks had a 10+ WAR, so to get a 20+ WAR from any 1st round pick is not terrible and shouldn’t be disappointing.

But the early signs of last year’s draft are ridiculous right now.

[Carp4Cy]

Gorman, Walker, Wong, Carlson, Rasmus, Miller etc.
Vs. Burlseson, Donovan, Edman, Carpenter, Craig.
Strange how that works.
Maybe I better revise my expectations for JJ?

Burleson can hit some, but he's still only a ~1 WAR player at this point. That's not better than a 1st/2nd round pick star. Winn was 4.5 WAR last year.

[Carp4Cy]

Gorman, Walker, Wong, Carlson, Rasmus, Miller etc.
Vs. Burlseson, Donovan, Edman, Carpenter, Craig.
Strange how that works.
Maybe I better revise my expectations for JJ?

Some of those guys like rasmus and wong were nof busts at all and had solid careers- people just had sky high expectations and were disappointed despite very solid production

Yup, a 20 WAR career from both Wong and Rasmus is a really good outcome from a #22/#28 (respectively) overall pick, many of which never even make it to the bigs.

The only problem is the org/fan hype on these guys, which fans never seem to learn how to guard against. E.g. I'd bet most people right now would say they'd be really disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

Darn it 3dender for calling me out, but yes, I'll be disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

In the last 50 years, only 441 position players have had careers of 20 fWAR or more.

so to be an above average franchise, the Cards should have gotten about 15-20 of those 441 during my lifetime. Who are they all?

[Wattage]

Gorman, Walker, Wong, Carlson, Rasmus, Miller etc.
Vs. Burlseson, Donovan, Edman, Carpenter, Craig.
Strange how that works.
Maybe I better revise my expectations for JJ?

Some of those guys like rasmus and wong were nof busts at all and had solid careers- people just had sky high expectations and were disappointed despite very solid production

Yup, a 20 WAR career from both Wong and Rasmus is a really good outcome from a #22/#28 (respectively) overall pick, many of which never even make it to the bigs.

The only problem is the org/fan hype on these guys, which fans never seem to learn how to guard against. E.g. I'd bet most people right now would say they'd be really disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

Part overhype and also part not understanding defensive value in case of wong and also not understanding posituonal value.

2b ss and cf just arent expected to put up 1b numbers.

Many casual fans will automatically feel that the 1b/dh is the most valuable player on their own team and on other teams they see around the league just cuz those are the guys with the best raw power hitting numbers- without considering how a guy does at his position compared to others.

[Bully4you]

Gorman, Walker, Wong, Carlson, Rasmus, Miller etc.
Vs. Burlseson, Donovan, Edman, Carpenter, Craig.
Strange how that works.
Maybe I better revise my expectations for JJ?

Burleson can hit some, but he's still only a ~1 WAR player at this point. That's not better than a 1st/2nd round pick star. Winn was 4.5 WAR last year.

Burleson can hit some!!!
Winn can't hit some??

[mattmitchl44]

Gorman, Walker, Wong, Carlson, Rasmus, Miller etc.
Vs. Burlseson, Donovan, Edman, Carpenter, Craig.
Strange how that works.
Maybe I better revise my expectations for JJ?

Some of those guys like rasmus and wong were nof busts at all and had solid careers- people just had sky high expectations and were disappointed despite very solid production

Yup, a 20 WAR career from both Wong and Rasmus is a really good outcome from a #22/#28 (respectively) overall pick, many of which never even make it to the bigs.

The only problem is the org/fan hype on these guys, which fans never seem to learn how to guard against. E.g. I'd bet most people right now would say they'd be really disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

Darn it 3dender for calling me out, but yes, I'll be disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

In the last 50 years, only 441 position players have had careers of 20 fWAR or more.

so to be an above average franchise, the Cards should have gotten about 15-20 of those 441 during my lifetime. Who are they all?

Since 1975, the position players who have put up 20+ fWAR while playing for the Cardinals:

Pujols
O. Smith
Molina
Edmonds
Lankford
K. Hernandez
Simmons
M. Carpenter
Rolen
Holliday
McGwire
Goldschmidt
McGee

and Arenado (18.7 fWAR currently) may well join them this year.

Of course, there are a number of others (Brian Jordan, Hendrick, Herr, Drew, Renteria, Templeton, Oberkfell, Pendleton, Gilkey, etc.) who were over 20 fWAR for their entire careers, but under 20 fWAR while playing for the Cardinals.

[Wattage]

Gorman, Walker, Wong, Carlson, Rasmus, Miller etc.
Vs. Burlseson, Donovan, Edman, Carpenter, Craig.
Strange how that works.
Maybe I better revise my expectations for JJ?

Some of those guys like rasmus and wong were nof busts at all and had solid careers- people just had sky high expectations and were disappointed despite very solid production

Yup, a 20 WAR career from both Wong and Rasmus is a really good outcome from a #22/#28 (respectively) overall pick, many of which never even make it to the bigs.

The only problem is the org/fan hype on these guys, which fans never seem to learn how to guard against. E.g. I'd bet most people right now would say they'd be really disappointed if Wetherholt only has a 20 WAR career.

Agreed, there have been drafts where maybe 1 or 2 of the top 10-15 picks had a 10+ WAR, so to get a 20+ WAR from any 1st round pick is not terrible and shouldn’t be disappointing.

But the early signs of last year’s draft are ridiculous right now.

Around 34% of 1st round picks never play in mlb at all much less become an impact player. I think a lot of people fail to realize just how much a (bleep) shoot it is.