Who should hit lead-off until Donovan returns?

[rockondlouie]

Very obvious now that Noot's slump (since May 1st: .197 .271 .303 .573) has become a huge problem and he's being removed from the lead-off spot.

J. Denton is reporting Oli is going to go back to the well again and bat M. Winn at lead-off, removing him from the #2 hole where he's having a solid season (.261 .328 .392 .720).

The problem w/this move is you're replacing Noot for his failure to get on base (Last 30 Days: .248 OB%) with Winn who's only done slightly better getting on base the last 30 days w/his .278 OB%!

And let's not forget Winn's .290 OB% when he hit lead-off in 2024 either.

So who's your lead-off hitter until B. Donovan (.379 OB%), the obvious choice to hit lead-off given Noot's struggles, returns to action?

My WAY, WAY Outside the Box suggestion will shock you but it's............

A. Burleson

WHAT?

Hear me out.

The Phillies have almost exclusively used TGKS at lead-off since they acquired him.

Aside from their similar physical appearance and awful OF play, TGKS does posses massive HR power which Burleson lacks.

BUT they both are very good at what?

GETTING ON BASE!

TGKS - .377 OB%
Burleson - .340 OB% (Since May 1st: .366 OB%)

Burleson doesn't hit for power any more so he's NOT going to missed if you remove him from the #5 hole where he has his most PA's by a wide margin w/a terrible .336 SLG% and has ONLY driven in six (6) lousy runs.

He's NOT a MOTO hitter!

Understand, this is ONLY a temporary move un till Donovan returns which could be any day now.

But until he does, I'd go:

Burleson
Winn
Hererra
WillyC
Gorman
NADO
Noot
Pages
VSII

[ecleme22]

Very obvious now that Noot's slump (since May 1st: .197 .271 .303 .573) has become a huge problem and he's being removed from the lead-off spot.

J. Denton is reporting Oli is going to go back to the well again and bat M. Winn at lead-off, removing him from the #2 hole where he's having a solid season (.261 .328 .392 .720).

The problem w/this move is you're replacing Noot for his failure to get on base (Last 30 Days: .248 OB%) with Winn who's only done slightly better getting on base the last 30 days w/his .278 OB%!

And let's not forget Winn's .290 OB% when he hit lead-off in 2024 either.

So who's your lead-off hitter until B. Donovan (.379 OB%), the obvious choice to hit lead-off given Noot's struggles, returns to action?

My WAY, WAY Outside the Box suggestion will shock you but it's............

A. Burleson

WHAT?

Hear me out.

The Phillies have almost exclusively used TGKS at lead-off since they acquired him.

Aside from their similar physical appearance and awful OF play, TGKS does posses massive HR power which Burleson lacks.

BUT they both are very good at what?

GETTING ON BASE!

TGKS - .377 OB%
Burleson - .340 OB% (Since May 1st: .366 OB%)

Burleson doesn't hit for power any more so he's NOT going to missed if you remove him from the #5 hole where he has his most PA's by a wide margin w/a terrible .336 SLG% and has ONLY driven in six (6) lousy runs.

He's NOT a MOTO hitter!

Understand, this is ONLY a temporary move un till Donovan returns which could be any day now.

But until he does, I'd go:

Burleson
Winn
Hererra
WillyC
Gorman
NADO
Noot
Pages
VSII

KS and AB are totally different hitters.

It’s funny rock is like “no way, Winn! He had a bad obp in LO in 2024!” So dumb.

Yet he has him in the 2 spot. Lol

[11WSChamps]

When Donovan returns he should lead off.

[rockondlouie]

When Donovan returns he should lead off.

100% 11WSC

He's the natural choice given his superior career .366 OB% and ability to work a pitcher!

But until then, who do you like?

[KeeptheRamsinSTL]

When Donovan returns he should lead off.

I agree.

[moose-and-squirrel]

When Donovan returns he should lead off.

100% 11WSC

He's the natural choice given his superior career .366 OB% and ability to work a pitcher!

But until then, who do you like?

agree... but to the OP's suggestion.. I think there's some merit to at least TRYING Burly there.. couldn't be any worse than what we've been seeing

[Melville]

Donovan belongs at 3.
Scott at one.
Before the season started, I alone stated that Winn/Donovan/Contreras should be 2/3/4.
Everyone without exception objected.
Obviously, I was proven to be correct.
I say that in order to say this:
At the very same time, I also stated Scott belonged at 1 and Nootbaar at 9 (in a platoon).
Again, everyone without exception objected.
But if STL would simply do as I advised, in very little time I would be proven 100% correct about that as well.
Folks, this stuff ain't hard.

[Shady]

Donovan belongs at 3.
Scott at one.
Before the season started, I alone stated that Winn/Donovan/Contreras should be 2/3/4.
Everyone without exception objected.
Obviously, I was proven to be correct.
I say that in order to say this:
At the very same time, I also stated Scott belonged at 1 and Nootbaar at 9 (in a platoon).
Again, everyone without exception objected.
But if STL would simply do as I advised, in very little time I would be proven 100% correct about that as well.
Folks, this stuff ain't hard.

A little cocky, but that's OK. At least you aren't vindictive. Where did you have Burleson in the lineup then and where do you have him now vs RHP? Same regarding Gorman?

[Melville]

Donovan belongs at 3.
Scott at one.
Before the season started, I alone stated that Winn/Donovan/Contreras should be 2/3/4.
Everyone without exception objected.
Obviously, I was proven to be correct.
I say that in order to say this:
At the very same time, I also stated Scott belonged at 1 and Nootbaar at 9 (in a platoon).
Again, everyone without exception objected.
But if STL would simply do as I advised, in very little time I would be proven 100% correct about that as well.
Folks, this stuff ain't hard.

Where did you have Burleson in the lineup then and where do you have him now?

Against RH starters, I had him 5th, then Gorman, then Walker, then Pages/Herrera competing for the C job at 8 (I predicted Pages would quickly take it away from The Matador), then Mootbaar.
Humbly, I believe I had it perfectly right and all evidence since suggests that I did.
Herrera has been the only, shall we say, "wild card".
And even then, I advise caution with him.
In 125 May/June PA's, he has just 3 HR and 9 XBH's - which isn't very good for a RH hitter with no position.
Maybe there is more under the hood - but I would not bet on more upside.

[rockondlouie]

When Donovan returns he should lead off.

100% 11WSC

He's the natural choice given his superior career .366 OB% and ability to work a pitcher!

But until then, who do you like?

agree... but to the OP's suggestion.. I think there's some merit to at least TRYING Burly there.. couldn't be any worse than what we've been seeing

If TGKS can do it, then why not our body double?

[craviduce]

if we could get a PR for Burley, then be able to insert Burley back into the lineup, I'd put Burley in Leadoff until his hot streak is over.

[rockondlouie]

Donovan belongs at 3.
Scott at one.
Before the season started, I alone stated that Winn/Donovan/Contreras should be 2/3/4.
Everyone without exception objected.
Obviously, I was proven to be correct.
I say that in order to say this:
At the very same time, I also stated Scott belonged at 1 and Nootbaar at 9 (in a platoon).
Again, everyone without exception objected.
But if STL would simply do as I advised, in very little time I would be proven 100% correct about that as well.
Folks, this stuff ain't hard.

VSII does sport a solid .350 OB% vs RHP but a weak .292 OB% vs LHP, no good for a lead-off man.

B. Donovan sports a sensational .415 OB% this season vs RHP (.379 OB% overall) which when coupled w/his ability to work pitchers and force a lot of pitches/AB makes him the logical choice to hit lead-off upon his return.

Donovan isn't the ideal #3 hole hitter, that's better filled by a hitter w/some pop ala I. Hererra or WillyC (your favorite N. Gorman would be ideal if he could just put it all together).

VSII at #9 creates the "double lead-off man" lineup construction, he's where he belongs in 2025.

Now going forward in his career, VSII has always been my choice as the future lead-off man but only if he can get his overall OB% in the .350+% range.

[rockondlouie]

if we could get a PR for Burley, then be able to insert Burley back into the lineup, I'd put Burley in Leadoff until his hot streak is over.

Agreed, late in games you could easily swap in Sinai as both his PR and his defensive replacement!

[Melville]

Donovan belongs at 3.
Scott at one.
Before the season started, I alone stated that Winn/Donovan/Contreras should be 2/3/4.
Everyone without exception objected.
Obviously, I was proven to be correct.
I say that in order to say this:
At the very same time, I also stated Scott belonged at 1 and Nootbaar at 9 (in a platoon).
Again, everyone without exception objected.
But if STL would simply do as I advised, in very little time I would be proven 100% correct about that as well.
Folks, this stuff ain't hard.

VSII does sport a solid .350 OB% vs RHP but a weak .292 OB% vs LHP, no good for a lead-off man.

B. Donovan sports a sensational .415 OB% this season vs RHP (.379 OB% overall) which when coupled w/his ability to work pitchers and force a lot of pitches/AB makes him the logical choice to hit lead-off upon his return.

Donovan isn't the ideal #3 hole hitter, that's better filled by a hitter w/some pop ala I. Hererra or WillyC (your favorite N. Gorman would be ideal if he could just put it all together).

VSII at #9 creates the "double lead-off man" lineup construction, he's where he belongs in 2025.

Now going forward in his career, VSII has always been my choice as the future lead-off man but only if he can get his overall OB% in the .350+% range.

A few notes.
I have no favorites - simply totally agnostic and accurate analysis of all players.
Concerning leadoff, I do not disagree that LH/RH splits matter - which is true of every spot in the lineup.
So when I speak of lineups, I am always referencing the most common optimal alignment, while recognizing variations are needed.
And yes, the most common optimal alignment would be Scott at leadoff and Winn at 2.
And under that arrangement, Donovan's superior bat-to-ball skills would be absolutely ideal.
That grouping would immediately increase STL 1st inning run production (currently in the bottom 3 of MLB) - and be a huge strategic boost that would increase the odds of winning.
Then the traditional middle-order production bats at 4-6.
Noot clearly belongs at 9 any time he is in the lineup - it is the only spot where his sole plus skill of passively pursuing passes had value.
A lot of this is tried and true "Baseball 101".
The Cardinals don't need to rewrite the manual.
But it would be helpful if Mo and The Marmot would read it.

[ecleme22]

Donovan belongs at 3.
Scott at one.
Before the season started, I alone stated that Winn/Donovan/Contreras should be 2/3/4.
Everyone without exception objected.
Obviously, I was proven to be correct.
I say that in order to say this:
At the very same time, I also stated Scott belonged at 1 and Nootbaar at 9 (in a platoon).
Again, everyone without exception objected.
But if STL would simply do as I advised, in very little time I would be proven 100% correct about that as well.
Folks, this stuff ain't hard.

VSII does sport a solid .350 OB% vs RHP but a weak .292 OB% vs LHP, no good for a lead-off man.

What?

AB is the same and you’re advocating him at LO… weird…