A Cardinals draft fantasy

[Shady]

They draft Seth Hernandez with the fifth pick and he turns out to be as good at 23 as Misiorowski was for the Brewers tonight.

[An Old Friend]

They draft Seth Hernandez with the fifth pick and he turns out to be as good at 23 as Misiorowski was for the Brewers tonight.

Keith Law has him rated 21st overall.

1st round high school right handers have a track record that is… abysmal.

[StlMike1969]

The more I research it the more I believe no high schooler should be taken in the first round. Maybe even the 2nd. College pitchers or college bat that has used wooden bats to succeed makes the most sense to me. A kid can excel in high school all day long, but struggle mightily on the college or pro stage with the increased talent and exposure. Not to mention excelling at any pro sport takes a dedication and commitment few are capable of. It means forgoing your prime years as a young man to enjoy wine, women and song and to stay committed to the long term goal. The incredibly small percentage of players that are drafted at the high school level and make it as a player with the same team, just doe not justify the high picks. Pitching is the name of the game. Guys with tools can be taught to hit better with good coaching. Pitchers though take time, coaching and a whole lot of luck their arms hold up to todays standards. You have to go through 10 to get one good one it seems like. They need to stick to the college guys in the first couple of rounds in my opinion.

[Shady]

The more I research it the more I believe no high schooler should be taken in the first round. Maybe even the 2nd. College pitchers or college bat that has used wooden bats to succeed makes the most sense to me. A kid can excel in high school all day long, but struggle mightily on the college or pro stage with the increased talent and exposure. Not to mention excelling at any pro sport takes a dedication and commitment few are capable of. It means forgoing your prime years as a young man to enjoy wine, women and song and to stay committed to the long term goal. The incredibly small percentage of players that are drafted at the high school level and make it as a player with the same team, just doe not justify the high picks. Pitching is the name of the game. Guys with tools can be taught to hit better with good coaching. Pitchers though take time, coaching and a whole lot of luck their arms hold up to todays standards. You have to go through 10 to get one good one it seems like. They need to stick to the college guys in the first couple of rounds in my opinion.

The problem I see, and I could be wrong, is the top rated collegiate pitchers don't have Hernandez's ceiling. The Cardinals need a true difference-maker starting pitcher.

[Cranny]

The more I research it the more I believe no high schooler should be taken in the first round. Maybe even the 2nd. College pitchers or college bat that has used wooden bats to succeed makes the most sense to me. A kid can excel in high school all day long, but struggle mightily on the college or pro stage with the increased talent and exposure. Not to mention excelling at any pro sport takes a dedication and commitment few are capable of. It means forgoing your prime years as a young man to enjoy wine, women and song and to stay committed to the long term goal. The incredibly small percentage of players that are drafted at the high school level and make it as a player with the same team, just doe not justify the high picks. Pitching is the name of the game. Guys with tools can be taught to hit better with good coaching. Pitchers though take time, coaching and a whole lot of luck their arms hold up to todays standards. You have to go through 10 to get one good one it seems like. They need to stick to the college guys in the first couple of rounds in my opinion.

The problem I see, and I could be wrong, is the top rated collegiate pitchers don't have Hernandez's ceiling. The Cardinals need a true difference-maker starting pitcher.

Hernandez is unproven against any bats besides high school bats.

[Futuregm2]

The more I research it the more I believe no high schooler should be taken in the first round. Maybe even the 2nd. College pitchers or college bat that has used wooden bats to succeed makes the most sense to me. A kid can excel in high school all day long, but struggle mightily on the college or pro stage with the increased talent and exposure. Not to mention excelling at any pro sport takes a dedication and commitment few are capable of. It means forgoing your prime years as a young man to enjoy wine, women and song and to stay committed to the long term goal. The incredibly small percentage of players that are drafted at the high school level and make it as a player with the same team, just doe not justify the high picks. Pitching is the name of the game. Guys with tools can be taught to hit better with good coaching. Pitchers though take time, coaching and a whole lot of luck their arms hold up to todays standards. You have to go through 10 to get one good one it seems like. They need to stick to the college guys in the first couple of rounds in my opinion.

The problem I see, and I could be wrong, is the top rated collegiate pitchers don't have Hernandez's ceiling. The Cardinals need a true difference-maker starting pitcher.

How much good is a ceiling if they never reach the majors?

Here are the HS pitchers that have been taken 5th overall

Matt Hobgood (2009) - Never made it
Clint Everts (2002) - Never made it
John Patterson (1996) - 88 MLB appearances (18-25 record)
Ken Henderson (1991) - Never made it
Kurt Miller (1990) - 7.48 career ERA in 44 appearances and a negative WAR

A couple of the biggest players to go 5th overall recently were HS hitters Riley Greene and Kyle Tucker. Going back further you had college players like Buster Posey, Ryan Braun, and Mark Teixeira.

Not the best way to go about it because every class is different, but history is not on your side for HS pitchers with the 5th overall pick. Or really any top 5 picks. I think Gavin Floyd is the best top 5 pick HS pitcher taken since 2000 with a career bWAR of 15.1.

[Shady]

The more I research it the more I believe no high schooler should be taken in the first round. Maybe even the 2nd. College pitchers or college bat that has used wooden bats to succeed makes the most sense to me. A kid can excel in high school all day long, but struggle mightily on the college or pro stage with the increased talent and exposure. Not to mention excelling at any pro sport takes a dedication and commitment few are capable of. It means forgoing your prime years as a young man to enjoy wine, women and song and to stay committed to the long term goal. The incredibly small percentage of players that are drafted at the high school level and make it as a player with the same team, just doe not justify the high picks. Pitching is the name of the game. Guys with tools can be taught to hit better with good coaching. Pitchers though take time, coaching and a whole lot of luck their arms hold up to todays standards. You have to go through 10 to get one good one it seems like. They need to stick to the college guys in the first couple of rounds in my opinion.

The problem I see, and I could be wrong, is the top rated collegiate pitchers don't have Hernandez's ceiling. The Cardinals need a true difference-maker starting pitcher.

Hernandez is unproven against any bats besides high school bats.

Thanks, I never thought of that. The latest mock I saw had Hernandez going to the Rockies with the 4th pick in the draft.