Cardinals Bad Streak with #1 draft picks: How are they always wrong

[Bully4you]

It's very strange how they never hit on a #1 pick.
I find it strange.
What was the last # 1 pick that was a star?
I mean for multiple years too.
It's crazy.
I think you'd have to go back more than 20 years.
JD Drew in 1998?
That's about it.
How does that happen?

[Joseph-Magrane]

While not Harper, Trout, Strasburg… I’d argue the following were “hits”

Lynn 08
Wacha 12
Flaherty 14
Morris 95

[Bully4you]

While not Harper, Trout, Strasburg… I’d argue the following were “hits”

Lynn 08
Wacha 12
Flaherty 14
Morris 95

Morris was 30 years ago?
Long time.
The others you listed aren't stars.
They may have had a couple of good years,
but weren't consistent stars.
I'm not talking SuperStars here either.
Just Multiyear All Stars.
It's just baffling how they haven't at least gotten
lucky a couple of times in 30 years.

[Wattage]

It's very strange how they never hit on a #1 pick.
I find it strange.
What was the last # 1 pick that was a star?
I mean for multiple years too.
It's crazy.
I think you'd have to go back more than 20 years.
JD Drew in 1998?
That's about it.
How does that happen?

1st of all, theres a difference between 1st round picks vs #1 picks. Those 2 things arent close to being the same.

Secondly, after the first few top picks, its always a (bleep) shoot. Statistically, a 1st round pick only has a 71.5% chance of making it to mlb ever. Not 71.5% chance of being a star, 71.5% of even making it to mlb. Many of that 71.5% also suck at.mlb but were goven chance cuz of draft status.. another chunk have okay to underwhelming careers. And thats with the top 5 draft picks lr so being mkre of locks. So the further in 1st round you get, the higher % chance they may not be impact player and its random.

Lastly, dakota hudson had his momemts here though he wasnt a star. Flaherty was very.effective for us until the injuries. Piscotty had successful seasons for us here. Wacha had struggles.with injuries mid career but has had good career. Wong was successful starting player for many years. Lynn had a successful career both here and elsewhere

[Wattage]

While not Harper, Trout, Strasburg… I’d argue the following were “hits”

Lynn 08
Wacha 12
Flaherty 14
Morris 95

Morris was 30 years ago?
Long time.
The others you listed aren't stars.
They may have had a couple of good years,
but weren't consistent stars.
I'm not talking SuperStars here either.
Just Multiyear All Stars.
It's just baffling how they haven't at least gotten
lucky a couple of times in 30 years.

Star is subjective but lynn is easily one of the most underrated pitchers. He was a solid #1-2 pitcher for a very long time.

Flaherty was an ace before he got injured. Injuries just derailed that. But he was very good 2017-2021. Finished 5th in rookie of year and had a 4th place cya finish. After some injury struggles 2022-2023 he looked back to formast year although hes had some struggles to begin this year.

[RamFan08NY]

As others have pointed out, the 1st round in MLB draft is a very big (bleep) shoot. I randomly pulled out 2020 first rd. If a player was going to make it to the bigs, they would have by now. Not too many household names from that first rd....


First round
edit
Pick Player Team Position School
1 Spencer Torkelson Detroit Tigers Third baseman Arizona State
2 Heston Kjerstad Baltimore Orioles Outfielder Arkansas
3 Max Meyer Miami Marlins Pitcher Minnesota
4 Asa Lacy Kansas City Royals Pitcher Texas A&M
5 Austin Martin Toronto Blue Jays Shortstop Vanderbilt
6 Emerson Hancock Seattle Mariners Pitcher Georgia
7 Nick Gonzales Pittsburgh Pirates Second baseman New Mexico State
8 Robert Hassell San Diego Padres Outfielder Independence High School (TN)
9 Zac Veen Colorado Rockies Outfielder Spruce Creek High School (FL)
10 Reid Detmers Los Angeles Angels Pitcher Louisville
11 Garrett Crochet Chicago White Sox Pitcher Tennessee
12 Austin Hendrick Cincinnati Reds Outfielder West Allegheny Senior High School (PA)
13 Patrick Bailey San Francisco Giants Catcher NC State
14 Justin Foscue Texas Rangers Second baseman Mississippi State
15 Mick Abel Philadelphia Phillies Pitcher Jesuit High School (OR)
16 Ed Howard Chicago Cubs Shortstop Mount Carmel High School (IL)
17 Nick Yorke Boston Red Sox Second baseman Archbishop Mitty High School (CA)
18 Bryce Jarvis Arizona Diamondbacks Pitcher Duke
19 Pete Crow-Armstrong New York Mets Outfielder Harvard-Westlake School (CA)
20 Garrett Mitchell Milwaukee Brewers Outfielder UCLA
21 Jordan Walker St. Louis Cardinals Third baseman Decatur High School (GA)
22 Cade Cavalli Washington Nationals Pitcher Oklahoma
23 Carson Tucker Cleveland Indians Shortstop Mountain Pointe High School (AZ)
24 Nick Bitsko Tampa Bay Rays Pitcher Central Bucks High School East (PA)
25 Jared Shuster Atlanta Braves Pitcher Wake Forest
26 Tyler Soderstrom Oakland Athletics Catcher Turlock High School (CA)
27 Aaron Sabato Minnesota Twins First baseman North Carolina
28 Austin Wells New York Yankees Catcher Arizona
29 Bobby Miller Los Angeles Dodgers Pitcher

[AnExParrot]

It's very strange how they never hit on a #1 pick.
I find it strange.
What was the last # 1 pick that was a star?
I mean for multiple years too.
It's crazy.
I think you'd have to go back more than 20 years.
JD Drew in 1998?
That's about it.
How does that happen?

How does it happen? The same way it happens to other teams, particularly other teams who rarely get a pick in the top 5.

[scoutyjones2]

It's very strange how they never hit on a #1 pick.
I find it strange.
What was the last # 1 pick that was a star?
I mean for multiple years too.
It's crazy.
I think you'd have to go back more than 20 years.
JD Drew in 1998?
That's about it.
How does that happen?

How did everyone miss on Pujols?

[3dender]

It's very strange how they never hit on a #1 pick.
I find it strange.
What was the last # 1 pick that was a star?
I mean for multiple years too.
It's crazy.
I think you'd have to go back more than 20 years.
JD Drew in 1998?
That's about it.
How does that happen?

I'll answer your question if you answer how many guys picked #18 and above in the first round have become stars since 2000? Cause that's where the Cards picked every year except 2008.

The 2008 exception was Brett Wallace at #13, who yes was an unfortunate miss. He also happened to be coveted by a good drafting/scouting team in the A's and brought back Matt Holliday in trade, so I don't think you can uniquely blame the Cards for missing on him.

[Monsieur De Treville]

It's very strange how they never hit on a #1 pick.
I find it strange.
What was the last # 1 pick that was a star?
I mean for multiple years too.
It's crazy.
I think you'd have to go back more than 20 years.
JD Drew in 1998?
That's about it.
How does that happen?

How did everyone miss on Pujols?

They didn't like his body. Sounds dumb, but he played SS and still had his baby fat. He confounded the scouts.

[rockondlouie]

It's very strange how they never hit on a #1 pick.
I find it strange.
What was the last # 1 pick that was a star?
I mean for multiple years too.
It's crazy.
I think you'd have to go back more than 20 years.
JD Drew in 1998?
That's about it.
How does that happen?

How did everyone miss on Pujols?

And M. Piazza

[Cusecards]

It's very strange how they never hit on a #1 pick.
I find it strange.
What was the last # 1 pick that was a star?
I mean for multiple years too.
It's crazy.
I think you'd have to go back more than 20 years.
JD Drew in 1998?
That's about it.
How does that happen?

You find it “strange”?
Here’s a Monday Morning Trivia Question for you:
Guess who/what many of us here on CT find to be “strange”??????

[ramfandan]

Why did Nationals make a good 1st round pick in 2010 ?

Guy named Bryce Harper
Could it be they had the 1st overall pick ?

Cardinals were never in that position.
Btw same year Harper went first Manny Machado went 3rd

[CCard]

It's always a (bleep) shoot. Some players develop and some don't. Still, higher picks tend to yield better results. Better talent and all.

[ClassicO]

I agree that their history with SPs has been quite bad for several years now. On the other hand, as others have pointed out, the quality of SPs with the #1 - #10 pick overall vs the #20 pick (the average for Cards the past 10 years) is significant.
Most of the great SPs are drafted in the top 10 or so.
Cole (1), Strasburg (1), Price (1), Verlander (2), Greinke (6), Kershaw (7), Scherzer (11), Bumgarner(10), Sale (13). DeGrom was mainly a SS at Stetson U. - so he fell to the 9th round.

These guys made the MLB and did well for a while:
Gallen - 2016 - 2nd round
Flaherty- 2014 — 34th pick
Marco Gonzales - 2013 - 19th pick
Wacha - 2012 - 19th pick
Lance Lynn - 2008 - (39th pick) - great 2012
Dan Haren - 2001 - 2nd round - traded in 2003
Rick Ankiel - 1997 - 2nd round ROY pitcher in 2000
Matt Morris - 1995 - 12th pick
Alan Benes - 1993 -16th pick

[FrankTheTank]

Rick Ankiel - 1997 - 2nd round ROY pitcher in 2000

I think if Ankiel doesn't get the yips, we are talking about a very special pitcher and good career. That was a shame.