Percentage to win series.
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Percentage to win series.
When the Blues went down 0-2 in the series I believe history said they have an 17% chance of winning the series. Now that it is tied and if they win game 5 that percentage then goes 78.8%
One of the reason I dislike playoff statistics like this and why it is also so important to just take it 1 game at a time. The probability of winning swings so much from game to game.
One of the reason I dislike playoff statistics like this and why it is also so important to just take it 1 game at a time. The probability of winning swings so much from game to game.
Re: Percentage to win series.
I don't know how they figure the percentages but I would think after going down 2-0 even after coming back to 2-2 the % still is not favorable as it still means the Blues nee to win 4 out of 5 which I would think is still consider a low probability.Hooking wrote: ↑30 Apr 2025 08:49 am When the Blues went down 0-2 in the series I believe history said they have an 17% chance of winning the series. Now that it is tied and if they win game 5 that percentage then goes 78.8%
One of the reason I dislike playoff statistics like this and why it is also so important to just take it 1 game at a time. The probability of winning swings so much from game to game.
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Re: Percentage to win series.
I think every year we see the stat about the probability of the Game 5 winner taking the series.
I found a site during the 2019 run that listed all of the playoff series in their current state/scenario and the historical odds of winning. I was really surprised at how accurate it was. I'll try to find it again.
I found a site during the 2019 run that listed all of the playoff series in their current state/scenario and the historical odds of winning. I was really surprised at how accurate it was. I'll try to find it again.
Re: Percentage to win series.
I saw that when a team loses the first two games and wins the next two, their chances of winning the series are around 21 percent. Like another poster said, it is hard to win four out of 5 games
Re: Percentage to win series.
I will also add that the Kings were up two games to none with the Oilers, and the Oilers are now up three games to 2.
Re: Percentage to win series.
Ah. I can help here. The Blues do NOT need to win 4 out of 5, they need to win 2 of 3. So do the Jets.skilles wrote: ↑30 Apr 2025 08:56 amI don't know how they figure the percentages but I would think after going down 2-0 even after coming back to 2-2 the % still is not favorable as it still means the Blues nee to win 4 out of 5 which I would think is still consider a low probability.Hooking wrote: ↑30 Apr 2025 08:49 am When the Blues went down 0-2 in the series I believe history said they have an 17% chance of winning the series. Now that it is tied and if they win game 5 that percentage then goes 78.8%
One of the reason I dislike playoff statistics like this and why it is also so important to just take it 1 game at a time. The probability of winning swings so much from game to game.
The past is the past, it's over and done. Nothing that hit the scoresheet counts in the next game (no one is suspended).
Re: Percentage to win series.
Is chalk ahead in every series but ours?
That would be incredibly unusual for the NHL and would bode well for us to be the dog to win.
That would be incredibly unusual for the NHL and would bode well for us to be the dog to win.
Re: Percentage to win series.
Thats not really how it works though.DawgDad wrote: ↑30 Apr 2025 12:45 pmAh. I can help here. The Blues do NOT need to win 4 out of 5, they need to win 2 of 3. So do the Jets.skilles wrote: ↑30 Apr 2025 08:56 amI don't know how they figure the percentages but I would think after going down 2-0 even after coming back to 2-2 the % still is not favorable as it still means the Blues nee to win 4 out of 5 which I would think is still consider a low probability.Hooking wrote: ↑30 Apr 2025 08:49 am When the Blues went down 0-2 in the series I believe history said they have an 17% chance of winning the series. Now that it is tied and if they win game 5 that percentage then goes 78.8%
One of the reason I dislike playoff statistics like this and why it is also so important to just take it 1 game at a time. The probability of winning swings so much from game to game.
The past is the past, it's over and done. Nothing that hit the scoresheet counts in the next game (no one is suspended).
Re: Percentage to win series.
Yeah I would expect that % to be low but probably swing dramatically with a win tonight.
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Re: Percentage to win series.
The point they were making is the Blues went down 2-0 so in order to win the series they have to win 4 out of the next 5 which is extremely difficult.DawgDad wrote: ↑30 Apr 2025 12:45 pmAh. I can help here. The Blues do NOT need to win 4 out of 5, they need to win 2 of 3. So do the Jets.skilles wrote: ↑30 Apr 2025 08:56 amI don't know how they figure the percentages but I would think after going down 2-0 even after coming back to 2-2 the % still is not favorable as it still means the Blues nee to win 4 out of 5 which I would think is still consider a low probability.Hooking wrote: ↑30 Apr 2025 08:49 am When the Blues went down 0-2 in the series I believe history said they have an 17% chance of winning the series. Now that it is tied and if they win game 5 that percentage then goes 78.8%
One of the reason I dislike playoff statistics like this and why it is also so important to just take it 1 game at a time. The probability of winning swings so much from game to game.
The past is the past, it's over and done. Nothing that hit the scoresheet counts in the next game (no one is suspended).
However, they already have completed 50% of that mission, so now it is down to a best 2 out of 3.
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Re: Percentage to win series.
We all have our own level of where we put our stock, feelings, take on the Hockey Gods or whatever. For myself, I have much faith in the eyeball.
Re: Percentage to win series.
Yeah when you say 4 out of 5 oof. That does sound rough. 2 out of 3 sounds so much better.
Again though it is crazy how much one game changes the stats. Both teams are now "have to win 2/3"
Presidents trophy team with a history of choking vs the hottest team going into the playoffs. This has been a hell of a series so far.
Re: Percentage to win series.
No arguement here, Hooking. None at all.Hooking wrote: ↑30 Apr 2025 18:40 pmYeah when you say 4 out of 5 oof. That does sound rough. 2 out of 3 sounds so much better.
Again though it is crazy how much one game changes the stats. Both teams are now "have to win 2/3"
Presidents trophy team with a history of choking vs the hottest team going into the playoffs. This has been a hell of a series so far.