Percentage to win series.

Join the discussion about the Blues.

[Complete Blues coverage on STLtoday.com]

Moderators: STLtoday Forum Moderators, Blues Talk Moderators

Post Reply
Hooking
Forum User
Posts: 696
Joined: 13 Dec 2023 09:39 am

Percentage to win series.

Post by Hooking »

When the Blues went down 0-2 in the series I believe history said they have an 17% chance of winning the series. Now that it is tied and if they win game 5 that percentage then goes 78.8%

One of the reason I dislike playoff statistics like this and why it is also so important to just take it 1 game at a time. The probability of winning swings so much from game to game.
skilles
Forum User
Posts: 1175
Joined: 23 May 2024 13:28 pm

Re: Percentage to win series.

Post by skilles »

Hooking wrote: 30 Apr 2025 08:49 am When the Blues went down 0-2 in the series I believe history said they have an 17% chance of winning the series. Now that it is tied and if they win game 5 that percentage then goes 78.8%

One of the reason I dislike playoff statistics like this and why it is also so important to just take it 1 game at a time. The probability of winning swings so much from game to game.
I don't know how they figure the percentages but I would think after going down 2-0 even after coming back to 2-2 the % still is not favorable as it still means the Blues nee to win 4 out of 5 which I would think is still consider a low probability.
LuvthaBlues
Forum User
Posts: 267
Joined: 06 Oct 2018 19:46 pm

Re: Percentage to win series.

Post by LuvthaBlues »

I think every year we see the stat about the probability of the Game 5 winner taking the series.

I found a site during the 2019 run that listed all of the playoff series in their current state/scenario and the historical odds of winning. I was really surprised at how accurate it was. I'll try to find it again.
Droge100
Forum User
Posts: 116
Joined: 07 Jun 2018 11:20 am

Re: Percentage to win series.

Post by Droge100 »

I saw that when a team loses the first two games and wins the next two, their chances of winning the series are around 21 percent. Like another poster said, it is hard to win four out of 5 games
Droge100
Forum User
Posts: 116
Joined: 07 Jun 2018 11:20 am

Re: Percentage to win series.

Post by Droge100 »

I will also add that the Kings were up two games to none with the Oilers, and the Oilers are now up three games to 2.
DawgDad
Forum User
Posts: 6666
Joined: 16 May 2019 10:58 am

Re: Percentage to win series.

Post by DawgDad »

skilles wrote: 30 Apr 2025 08:56 am
Hooking wrote: 30 Apr 2025 08:49 am When the Blues went down 0-2 in the series I believe history said they have an 17% chance of winning the series. Now that it is tied and if they win game 5 that percentage then goes 78.8%

One of the reason I dislike playoff statistics like this and why it is also so important to just take it 1 game at a time. The probability of winning swings so much from game to game.
I don't know how they figure the percentages but I would think after going down 2-0 even after coming back to 2-2 the % still is not favorable as it still means the Blues nee to win 4 out of 5 which I would think is still consider a low probability.
Ah. I can help here. The Blues do NOT need to win 4 out of 5, they need to win 2 of 3. So do the Jets.

The past is the past, it's over and done. Nothing that hit the scoresheet counts in the next game (no one is suspended).
TBone
Forum User
Posts: 763
Joined: 28 May 2024 09:00 am

Re: Percentage to win series.

Post by TBone »

Is chalk ahead in every series but ours?

That would be incredibly unusual for the NHL and would bode well for us to be the dog to win.
skilles
Forum User
Posts: 1175
Joined: 23 May 2024 13:28 pm

Re: Percentage to win series.

Post by skilles »

DawgDad wrote: 30 Apr 2025 12:45 pm
skilles wrote: 30 Apr 2025 08:56 am
Hooking wrote: 30 Apr 2025 08:49 am When the Blues went down 0-2 in the series I believe history said they have an 17% chance of winning the series. Now that it is tied and if they win game 5 that percentage then goes 78.8%

One of the reason I dislike playoff statistics like this and why it is also so important to just take it 1 game at a time. The probability of winning swings so much from game to game.
I don't know how they figure the percentages but I would think after going down 2-0 even after coming back to 2-2 the % still is not favorable as it still means the Blues nee to win 4 out of 5 which I would think is still consider a low probability.
Ah. I can help here. The Blues do NOT need to win 4 out of 5, they need to win 2 of 3. So do the Jets.

The past is the past, it's over and done. Nothing that hit the scoresheet counts in the next game (no one is suspended).
Thats not really how it works though.
skilles
Forum User
Posts: 1175
Joined: 23 May 2024 13:28 pm

Re: Percentage to win series.

Post by skilles »

Droge100 wrote: 30 Apr 2025 10:00 am I saw that when a team loses the first two games and wins the next two, their chances of winning the series are around 21 percent. Like another poster said, it is hard to win four out of 5 games
Yeah I would expect that % to be low but probably swing dramatically with a win tonight.
TheJackBurton
Forum User
Posts: 2036
Joined: 23 May 2024 12:43 pm

Re: Percentage to win series.

Post by TheJackBurton »

DawgDad wrote: 30 Apr 2025 12:45 pm
skilles wrote: 30 Apr 2025 08:56 am
Hooking wrote: 30 Apr 2025 08:49 am When the Blues went down 0-2 in the series I believe history said they have an 17% chance of winning the series. Now that it is tied and if they win game 5 that percentage then goes 78.8%

One of the reason I dislike playoff statistics like this and why it is also so important to just take it 1 game at a time. The probability of winning swings so much from game to game.
I don't know how they figure the percentages but I would think after going down 2-0 even after coming back to 2-2 the % still is not favorable as it still means the Blues nee to win 4 out of 5 which I would think is still consider a low probability.
Ah. I can help here. The Blues do NOT need to win 4 out of 5, they need to win 2 of 3. So do the Jets.

The past is the past, it's over and done. Nothing that hit the scoresheet counts in the next game (no one is suspended).
The point they were making is the Blues went down 2-0 so in order to win the series they have to win 4 out of the next 5 which is extremely difficult.

However, they already have completed 50% of that mission, so now it is down to a best 2 out of 3.
Blues Dave
Forum User
Posts: 335
Joined: 27 May 2024 14:31 pm

Re: Percentage to win series.

Post by Blues Dave »

We all have our own level of where we put our stock, feelings, take on the Hockey Gods or whatever. For myself, I have much faith in the eyeball.
Hooking
Forum User
Posts: 696
Joined: 13 Dec 2023 09:39 am

Re: Percentage to win series.

Post by Hooking »

Droge100 wrote: 30 Apr 2025 10:00 am I saw that when a team loses the first two games and wins the next two, their chances of winning the series are around 21 percent. Like another poster said, it is hard to win four out of 5 games
Yeah when you say 4 out of 5 oof. That does sound rough. 2 out of 3 sounds so much better.

Again though it is crazy how much one game changes the stats. Both teams are now "have to win 2/3"

Presidents trophy team with a history of choking vs the hottest team going into the playoffs. This has been a hell of a series so far.
Aesa
Forum User
Posts: 2415
Joined: 23 May 2024 12:51 pm

Re: Percentage to win series.

Post by Aesa »

Hooking wrote: 30 Apr 2025 18:40 pm
Droge100 wrote: 30 Apr 2025 10:00 am I saw that when a team loses the first two games and wins the next two, their chances of winning the series are around 21 percent. Like another poster said, it is hard to win four out of 5 games
Yeah when you say 4 out of 5 oof. That does sound rough. 2 out of 3 sounds so much better.

Again though it is crazy how much one game changes the stats. Both teams are now "have to win 2/3"

Presidents trophy team with a history of choking vs the hottest team going into the playoffs. This has been a hell of a series so far.
No arguement here, Hooking. None at all.
Post Reply