Magic Number

[Harold_Melvin]

As I see it, the worst case scenario is if Calgary goes 6-0 AND Minnesota wins all their games sans for the game against the Flames. Calgary would have 97 points and Minnesota could still end up with as many as 98 points. The Blues currently have 93 points. So the magic number is 5. The Blues may only need 4, but that would require assistance from the tiebreaker gods.

[seattleblue]

As I see it, the worst case scenario is if Calgary goes 6-0 AND Minnesota wins all their games sans for the game against the Flames. Calgary would have 97 points and Minnesota could still end up with as many as 98 points. The Blues currently have 93 points. So the magic number is 5. The Blues may only need 4, but that would require assistance from the tiebreaker gods.

Three common ways it could be just four points:

1. Blues win two games in regulation
2. Calgary loses two games in regulation
3. Blues win one game in regulation + one regulation Calgary loss

(there are other permutations but these are three basic ones)

[callitwhatyouwant]

can someone check the math? With 1 regulation win and a Calgary loss, it is impossible for Calgary to overtake the Blues. If Blues went 1-3 and the flames went 5-1, they both would tie at 95 points. The Flames would then have to win every single one of those games in regulation to get their win total above the blues regulation wins (that's assuming the blues only win was in OT) but if the Blues won in regulation the best the flames could do is match the 32 regulation wins the Blues have. And then the Blues have the head to head which would be the next marker.

Is this correct? Could be a fun night in STL.

[Harry S Deals]

Calgary is 8pts back with 2 games in hand, 6 games to play, Calgary has 27 RWs

Blues have 93 pts

So Calgary can max out at 97 pts which could also theoretically be 33 RWs (although other scenarios could occur)
Considering this the Blues need 4 pts in their last 4 games technically but with Calgary still playing Minn, LV and LA it seems unlikely that Calgary will sweep all 6 games IN REGULATION.

Im guessing Calgary sweeps SJ x2 and Anaheim so thats 6pts w/RWs
Then Minn, LV and LA say they do well and get 4 pts out of 6 pts

So that puts Calgary at 95 pts in which the Blues would only need 2pts out of Winn, Edm, Seattle and Utah

[DawgDad]

can someone check the math? With 1 regulation win and a Calgary loss, it is impossible for Calgary to overtake the Blues. If Blues went 1-3 and the flames went 5-1, they both would tie at 95 points. The Flames would then have to win every single one of those games in regulation to get their win total above the blues regulation wins (that's assuming the blues only win was in OT) but if the Blues won in regulation the best the flames could do is match the 32 regulation wins the Blues have. And then the Blues have the head to head which would be the next marker.

Is this correct? Could be a fun night in STL.

https://www.nhl.com/info/standings-info ... -procedure
1. Point percentage (fewest games played)
2. RW - regulation wins
3. ROW - regulation/overtime wins
4. Total wins
5. Head-to-head
6+ other means, not likely to get this far

[Harold_Melvin]

can someone check the math? With 1 regulation win and a Calgary loss, it is impossible for Calgary to overtake the Blues. If Blues went 1-3 and the flames went 5-1, they both would tie at 95 points. The Flames would then have to win every single one of those games in regulation to get their win total above the blues regulation wins (that's assuming the blues only win was in OT) but if the Blues won in regulation the best the flames could do is match the 32 regulation wins the Blues have. And then the Blues have the head to head which would be the next marker.

Is this correct? Could be a fun night in STL.

Here's my thought process. If Calgary runs the table winning all games in regulation AND the Blues only get 4 points without winning 2 games in regulation AND the Wild catch the Blues in points, we would be singing the blues. So 4 doesn't necessarily get the Blues in. However 5 guarantees it.

[TBone]

They were saying on the radio today a Blues win in regulation + a Flames loss in regualtion clinches a playoff spot.

[Harold_Melvin]

They were saying on the radio today a Blues win in regulation + a Flames loss in regualtion clinches a playoff spot.

Indeed. That's 2 point loss for Calgary and a 2 point win for the Blues which totals 4 points and because both are in regulation the tie breaker would go to the Blues.

[seattleblue]

can someone check the math? With 1 regulation win and a Calgary loss, it is impossible for Calgary to overtake the Blues. If Blues went 1-3 and the flames went 5-1, they both would tie at 95 points. The Flames would then have to win every single one of those games in regulation to get their win total above the blues regulation wins (that's assuming the blues only win was in OT) but if the Blues won in regulation the best the flames could do is match the 32 regulation wins the Blues have. And then the Blues have the head to head which would be the next marker.

Is this correct? Could be a fun night in STL.

Here's my thought process. If Calgary runs the table winning all games in regulation AND the Blues only get 4 points without winning 2 games in regulation AND the Wild catch the Blues in points, we would be singing the blues. So 4 doesn't necessarily get the Blues in. However 5 guarantees it.

A very good way to explain why it's kinda 4 but still technically 5
and the whole point of the 'magic' in magic number is all the technical possibilities dry up

[TheJackBurton]

can someone check the math? With 1 regulation win and a Calgary loss, it is impossible for Calgary to overtake the Blues. If Blues went 1-3 and the flames went 5-1, they both would tie at 95 points. The Flames would then have to win every single one of those games in regulation to get their win total above the blues regulation wins (that's assuming the blues only win was in OT) but if the Blues won in regulation the best the flames could do is match the 32 regulation wins the Blues have. And then the Blues have the head to head which would be the next marker.

Is this correct? Could be a fun night in STL.

Here's my thought process. If Calgary runs the table winning all games in regulation AND the Blues only get 4 points without winning 2 games in regulation AND the Wild catch the Blues in points, we would be singing the blues. So 4 doesn't necessarily get the Blues in. However 5 guarantees it.

I know you weren't saying it, but I doubt Calgary runs the table (although I expected them to have lost more games than they have at this point)

They have the following games left:

Sharks (currently winning 1-0 over the flames)
Ducks
Wild
Sharks
Knights
Kings

They will very likely lose one of the Wild and Knights and there's always a time when have you an unexpected loss such as against the Sharks or Ducks as they are eliminated so they play looser and are playing for jobs next year. We also know how hard it can be to beat a team multiple times in a week

The only one that I think will likely be an easy one for them will be the game against the Kings unless Edmonton goes on a bit of a run, which will be difficult with their injuries. I imagine that will be the just don't get hurt game where the 3rd and 4th lines get 20 minutes each.

[Russdv14]

Sharks up 1-0 after 1
We really need an outstanding game from the Sharks tonight

[Russdv14]

By now y’all know that Calgary had a comeback victory 3 to 2 in regulation . Made for a disappointing evening
Nothing clinched

[Bluesfan1978]

Blues need to win the next two n Regulation and be done with this. If Calgary happens to lose one as well great. I think the winning streak needed to end. Refocus and put the Flames out.

[dhsux]

Getting down to it for sure.

And you can bet any of the three they still have to face would love to knock them off.

Minny could still oblige the Blues as well.

[seattleblue]

NGL, I don't hate the idea of attending a game Saturday where they might be clinching or where I might see a certain someone's first NHL goal

Key game is MN-CGY this Friday. One reason the Blues are in strong shape for playoffs is that game

[Harold_Melvin]

I know you weren't saying it, but I doubt Calgary runs the table (although I expected them to have lost more games than they have at this point)

They have the following games left:

Sharks (REVISED: Won in Regulation)
Ducks
Wild
Sharks
Knights
Kings

They will very likely lose one of the Wild and Knights and there's always a time when have you an unexpected loss such as against the Sharks or Ducks as they are eliminated so they play looser and are playing for jobs next year. We also know how hard it can be to beat a team multiple times in a week

The only one that I think will likely be an easy one for them will be the game against the Kings unless Edmonton goes on a bit of a run, which will be difficult with their injuries. I imagine that will be the just don't get hurt game where the 3rd and 4th lines get 20 minutes each.

I agree with you, I don't think Calgary will run the table. It's entirely possible that the Flames self eliminate. Magic numbers are an exercise in worst case scenario, to a pedantic level when it comes to the NHL because of all the tie-breakers.

There aren't any games on the schedule today that would impact the magic number so it remains 5 for another day.