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imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:42 pm I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:58 pm

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:42 pm I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Healthy all year. The talent is there

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:02 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:58 pm

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:42 pm I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Healthy all year. The talent is there

If he does stay healthy I don't doubt the numbers would be solid (enough). Would you expect him to repeat it for multiple years. I still think we are talking about just a fine player, not some super star that is just too hot to handle.

greyhawk wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:01 pm playing at least 130 games

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:03 pm

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:02 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:58 pm

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:42 pm I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Healthy all year. The talent is there

If he does stay healthy I don't doubt the numbers would be solid (enough). Would you expect him to repeat it for multiple years. I still think we are talking about just a fine player, not some super star that is just too hot to handle.

So Ryan Ludwick ?

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:06 pm IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:03 pm

greyhawk wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:01 pm playing at least 130 games

Come on let's predict more than that. How many HRs, OBP, OPS, etc.

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:11 pm

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:06 pm IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

Sounds about right, but it’s tough to project games played. That’s what makes 5-year projections tricky, to put it lightly.

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:02 pm

scoutyjones2 wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:58 pm

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 18:42 pm I've seen the phrase "breakout season" thrown around a few times in the same sentence as Lars Nootbaar. I'm trying to understand what people think that might look like.

He's 27 this year. His 162G average (he's played 108, 117, 109 games in the last 3 seasons) includes a 3.1 bWar, 25 2b, 19 hr, 60 rbi, and 10 steals to go with a .774 OPS.

Tell me

What a "peak season" would be

And

What you think his average season is over the next 5 years, in terms of: Games Played, WAR, HR, OBP, and OPS.

I want guesses of all 5 stats for both a peak season and his average season over the next 5 years.

Healthy all year. The talent is there

If he does stay healthy I don't doubt the numbers would be solid (enough). Would you expect him to repeat it for multiple years. I still think we are talking about just a fine player, not some super star that is just too hot to handle.

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:06 pm IMO a peak season for Lars would be 4.5 WAR, 145 games played, 25 homers, a .860 OPS, .360 OBP.

Average season over next 5 years: 125 games, 3 WAR, 18 homers, .345 obp, .790 OPS.

greyhawk wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:16 pm

imadangman wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:03 pm

greyhawk wrote: ↑27 Feb 2025 19:01 pm playing at least 130 games

Come on let's predict more than that. How many HRs, OBP, OPS, etc.

well that's a huge deal --- i think if he manages to play 130 games his numbers will protract out to exactly what he has been doing in his 50-60 game spurts of being able to play.