Noah Cameron is rumored for Donovan

[icon]

Cameron would be #1 ace on this team as of now given his ERA and WAR. That's what the Cards need, a cheap, controlled starter who can help not only during the rebuild, but actually be a part of until the end. So if the trade is Cameron for Donovan, yeah I'd like more, but is anyone offering instant pitching help in the form of someone who as of right now would be their top starter based on last season's numbers? Liberatore, McG, and Cameron make a solid 3 of 5.

Yeah, people thinking the Cardinal are going to get a potential TOR starter for Donovan are going to be disappointed.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.

And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.

Fans will take all positions just as you are comfortable with your call.
When we do that though are we not giving any credit to the people making the
decisions? If they are in charge of talent assessment and only see what a player
has done, era, this will be a dark period.

One thing after hanging around the game, knowing guys trying to make it, that always caused
me to rebel is others putting caps on these players. It's done throughout the game. Not all are
getting the same opportunities. Some are held in AAA for injury insurance for years, then labeled
a career minor leaguer. There is just not that much that separates these players.
If there was the draft could be much shorter and those first round draft success rates much higher.
I apologize if that comes through here, nothing personal.

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

What is wrong with a young #3 starter who has already outperformed that dubious expectation in his first year, and comes with 5 years of control?

Don’t we need one of those? Better than the other #4-5/6 types we have now. Or should we wait for 4 more Doyles and have an all ace rotation?

IMO - as I've stated before, I would take the risk of trying to get another prospect that is a "Liam Doyle-level" prospect, even if they are as far away as Doyle (ETA 2027).

The Cardinals need more quality out of the prospects they are developing - Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. I've said before, they need to develop at least one 4+ or 5+ fWAR position player and one young front of rotation SP. Maybe that will be exactly Wetherholt and Doyle, but I'd like to have more options that have that kind of ceiling if they can reach it. I don't think Cameron is it, however.

I've said - on multiple occasions - I'd be looking for a prospect like Nolan McLean from the Mets, and I'd package more with Donovan to get a prospect with that kind of ceiling instead of Cameron plus other pieces.

Would you trade a potential future Cy Young level pitching prospect for two years of a solid second baseman as the centerpiece of the deal?

[renostl]

Cameron would be #1 ace on this team as of now given his ERA and WAR. That's what the Cards need, a cheap, controlled starter who can help not only during the rebuild, but actually be a part of until the end. So if the trade is Cameron for Donovan, yeah I'd like more, but is anyone offering instant pitching help in the form of someone who as of right now would be their top starter based on last season's numbers? Liberatore, McG, and Cameron make a solid 3 of 5.

There are certainly attributes to getting a young guy who can be a part of a rotation for a
5 year period. He needs to fit though. It's a part of MattMitch position that is easy to support. The
assessment of the pitcher needs that upside and not an assessment that concludes he's a #5 guy and
is another LHP. If they see a #3 or better that's a different story. I just think we need to trust
that the talent evaluation is solid beyond laptop assessments or it is never going to work anyway.

IF it's a #4 or #5 conclusion those potential adds won't matter much. Just move on from KC. There's a solid
handful of teams that a better upside can be found. IMO KC doesn't have a player that fits the Cardinals
that I would add a player with Donovan to get. I certainly wouldn't add to Donovan to get Cameron.
Seattle, LA, NY. Boston, even Cleveland possess such players.

Buy the SP. Littell, Eflin, Mahle or similar are RHP's with upside. Cards just saved another $20M this season from Gray.
They won't crush the 2026 budget and both goals can be met. My guess is those SP come in under $20M.
In this market who knows. But what a solid trade of Sonny if it does. 3 for 1 year of Gray.

[ICCFIM2]

Cameron would be #1 ace on this team as of now given his ERA and WAR. That's what the Cards need, a cheap, controlled starter who can help not only during the rebuild, but actually be a part of until the end. So if the trade is Cameron for Donovan, yeah I'd like more, but is anyone offering instant pitching help in the form of someone who as of right now would be their top starter based on last season's numbers? Liberatore, McG, and Cameron make a solid 3 of 5.

There are certainly attributes to getting a young guy who can be a part of a rotation for a
5 year period. He needs to fit though. It's a part of MattMitch position that is easy to support. The
assessment of the pitcher needs that upside and not an assessment that concludes he's a #5 guy and
is another LHP. If they see a #3 or better that's a different story. I just think we need to trust
that the talent evaluation is solid beyond laptop assessments or it is never going to work anyway.

IF it's a #4 or #5 conclusion those potential adds won't matter much. Just move on from KC. There's a solid
handful of teams that a better upside can be found. IMO KC doesn't have a player that fits the Cardinals
that I would add a player with Donovan to get. I certainly wouldn't add to Donovan to get Cameron.
Seattle, LA, NY. Boston, even Cleveland possess such players.

Buy the SP. Littell, Eflin, Mahle or similar are RHP's with upside. Cards just saved another $20M this season from Gray.
They won't crush the 2026 budget and both goals can be met. My guess is those SP come in under $20M.
In this market who knows. But what a solid trade of Sonny if it does. 3 for 1 year of Gray.

I think you and Mattmitch are mostly right on this. There are two offsetting positions. First, the Cards need to fill out a rotation. Getting young cost controlled starter for 5 years who has the certainty of a #4-5 and the upside of a #3 has value. It helps make the team mildly competitive in 2026 while adding to the pile of potential starters. We don't know how any of the starters in our system are going to turn out. So adding one with 1 year of proof that they are ML ready allows funds to be allocated to other issues. Second, the value of pitching appears to be increasing faster than the value of position players. Assumer Cameron continues to pitch at least at a #4 level over the next 2 years, his value may exceed Donovans current value at the end of 2027. Personally, I would like to see the Cards getting a higher upside guy. I am simply pointing out there are potential reasons this could be the right move.

[zbasspro]

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

We need pitching. We need innings this year, and the foreseeable few years. We'd like to have at least average production for those innings ( which I believe is safe to predict for Cameron.) Why exactly would this be a bad trade, other than some posters here think Donovan is worth more?

Can anyone here post an example of such pitcher we can sign for five years, and estimate what that costs in FA? Let's dock Cameron for being presumably two years to early to compete....what's a #3 cost for three years, two years from now?

I think the majority of this forum is way overselling Donny. I'm in no way saying not to shop around, and hope for a better deal. What I am saying is, that's a darn good return for two years. Donny(although a good/very good player) is a player we won't compete with, outside of re-signing him. Our needs may change in two years, and the money spent extending Donny, may be much better served elsewhere.

Assuming this is the best offer, and KC is actually adding to the package, I just have a hard time knocking this.

Now, if you want to make an argument we could add to Donny for more upside, I could get behind that. I'm just not seeing the opportunity to swipe a #2 or better, using the chips we have.

[mattmitchl44]

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.

And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.

Fans will take all positions just as you are comfortable with your call.
When we do that though are we not giving any credit to the people making the
decisions? If they are in charge of talent assessment and only see what a player
has done, era, this will be a dark period.

One thing after hanging around the game, knowing guys trying to make it, that always caused
me to rebel is others putting caps on these players. It's done throughout the game. Not all are
getting the same opportunities. Some are held in AAA for injury insurance for years, then labeled
a career minor leaguer. There is just not that much that separates these players.
If there was the draft could be much shorter and those first round draft success rates much higher.
I apologize if that comes through here, nothing personal.

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

What is wrong with a young #3 starter who has already outperformed that dubious expectation in his first year, and comes with 5 years of control?

Don’t we need one of those? Better than the other #4-5/6 types we have now. Or should we wait for 4 more Doyles and have an all ace rotation?

IMO - as I've stated before, I would take the risk of trying to get another prospect that is a "Liam Doyle-level" prospect, even if they are as far away as Doyle (ETA 2027).

The Cardinals need more quality out of the prospects they are developing - Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. I've said before, they need to develop at least one 4+ or 5+ fWAR position player and one young front of rotation SP. Maybe that will be exactly Wetherholt and Doyle, but I'd like to have more options that have that kind of ceiling if they can reach it. I don't think Cameron is it, however.

I've said - on multiple occasions - I'd be looking for a prospect like Nolan McLean from the Mets, and I'd package more with Donovan to get a prospect with that kind of ceiling instead of Cameron plus other pieces.

Would you trade a potential future Cy Young level pitching prospect for two years of a solid second baseman as the centerpiece of the deal?

I can't know exactly what the Mets or any other team would, or would not, do. Referencing BTV as a neutral, third party, IIRC they have had McLean about +41 and Donovan at +32, so they don't have it as wildly out of balance. You could definitely cover a gap like that with addition pieces.

I trust the Cardinals FO will do the best deal that they can. If that ends up being Cameron, so be it. But I'll be mildly disappointed for an organization that, supposedly, was supposed to be getting with the idea that they need more swing-and-miss from their pitchers and less pitch-to-contract.

[mattmitchl44]

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

We need pitching. We need innings this year, and the foreseeable few years. We'd like to have at least average production for those innings ( which I believe is safe to predict for Cameron.) Why exactly would this be a bad trade, other than some posters here think Donovan is worth more?

Can anyone here post an example of such pitcher we can sign for five years, and estimate what that costs in FA? Let's dock Cameron for being presumably two years to early to compete....what's a #3 cost for three years, two years from now?

I think the majority of this forum is way overselling Donny. I'm in no way saying not to shop around, and hope for a better deal. What I am saying is, that's a darn good return for two years. Donny(although a good/very good player) is a player we won't compete with, outside of re-signing him. Our needs may change in two years, and the money spent extending Donny, may be much better served elsewhere.

Assuming this is the best offer, and KC is actually adding to the package, I just have a hard time knocking this.

Now, if you want to make an argument we could add to Donny for more upside, I could get behind that. I'm just not seeing the opportunity to swipe a #2 or better, using the chips we have.

I'm not taking the position that if it is Donovan to KC for Cameron+ that it will be a bad trade.

I'm just pointing out that Cameron, from every indication, is another Liberatore, Mikolas, etc. - he's another pitch-to-contact SP, not a swing-and-miss SP like a Sonny Gray, Liam Doyle, etc.

It may be that Cameron+ is the best deal the Cardinals can get, even though we've been told often how the market for Donovan is "on fire." It seems like a "safe" option rather than a more aggressive, riskier option which could pay more dividends later. If would not want them taking the "safe option" just because Cameron is going to pitch in the majors in 2026.

[sikeston bulldog2]

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

We need pitching. We need innings this year, and the foreseeable few years. We'd like to have at least average production for those innings ( which I believe is safe to predict for Cameron.) Why exactly would this be a bad trade, other than some posters here think Donovan is worth more?

Can anyone here post an example of such pitcher we can sign for five years, and estimate what that costs in FA? Let's dock Cameron for being presumably two years to early to compete....what's a #3 cost for three years, two years from now?

I think the majority of this forum is way overselling Donny. I'm in no way saying not to shop around, and hope for a better deal. What I am saying is, that's a darn good return for two years. Donny(although a good/very good player) is a player we won't compete with, outside of re-signing him. Our needs may change in two years, and the money spent extending Donny, may be much better served elsewhere.

Assuming this is the best offer, and KC is actually adding to the package, I just have a hard time knocking this.

Now, if you want to make an argument we could add to Donny for more upside, I could get behind that. I'm just not seeing the opportunity to swipe a #2 or better, using the chips we have.

I'm not taking the position that if it is Donovan to KC for Cameron+ that it will be a bad trade.

I'm just pointing out that Cameron, from every indication, is another Liberatore, Mikolas, etc. - he's another pitch-to-contact SP, not a swing-and-miss SP like a Sonny Gray, Liam Doyle, etc.

It may be that Cameron+ is the best deal the Cardinals can get, even though we've been told often how the market for Donovan is "on fire." It seems like a "safe" option rather than a more aggressive, riskier option which could pay more dividends later. If would not want them taking the "safe option" just because Cameron is going to pitch in the majors in 2026.

Sounds like the Cameron move is an- I have become comfortably numb moment. Safe. Middle of the road event. Is that what our best chip can bring?

[mattmitchl44]

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

We need pitching. We need innings this year, and the foreseeable few years. We'd like to have at least average production for those innings ( which I believe is safe to predict for Cameron.) Why exactly would this be a bad trade, other than some posters here think Donovan is worth more?

Can anyone here post an example of such pitcher we can sign for five years, and estimate what that costs in FA? Let's dock Cameron for being presumably two years to early to compete....what's a #3 cost for three years, two years from now?

I think the majority of this forum is way overselling Donny. I'm in no way saying not to shop around, and hope for a better deal. What I am saying is, that's a darn good return for two years. Donny(although a good/very good player) is a player we won't compete with, outside of re-signing him. Our needs may change in two years, and the money spent extending Donny, may be much better served elsewhere.

Assuming this is the best offer, and KC is actually adding to the package, I just have a hard time knocking this.

Now, if you want to make an argument we could add to Donny for more upside, I could get behind that. I'm just not seeing the opportunity to swipe a #2 or better, using the chips we have.

I'm not taking the position that if it is Donovan to KC for Cameron+ that it will be a bad trade.

I'm just pointing out that Cameron, from every indication, is another Liberatore, Mikolas, etc. - he's another pitch-to-contact SP, not a swing-and-miss SP like a Sonny Gray, Liam Doyle, etc.

It may be that Cameron+ is the best deal the Cardinals can get, even though we've been told often how the market for Donovan is "on fire." It seems like a "safe" option rather than a more aggressive, riskier option which could pay more dividends later. If would not want them taking the "safe option" just because Cameron is going to pitch in the majors in 2026.

Sounds like the Cameron move is an- I have become comfortably numb moment. Safe. Middle of the road event. Is that what our best chip can bring?

My contention would be that "floor guys" are the prospects/players that you get when you trade your lesser assets - Gray, Contreras, etc. "Ceiling guys" - and such guys who are judged to have a better chance of reaching that ceiling - are who you try to deal your better assets like Donovan for.

[sikeston bulldog2]

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

We need pitching. We need innings this year, and the foreseeable few years. We'd like to have at least average production for those innings ( which I believe is safe to predict for Cameron.) Why exactly would this be a bad trade, other than some posters here think Donovan is worth more?

Can anyone here post an example of such pitcher we can sign for five years, and estimate what that costs in FA? Let's dock Cameron for being presumably two years to early to compete....what's a #3 cost for three years, two years from now?

I think the majority of this forum is way overselling Donny. I'm in no way saying not to shop around, and hope for a better deal. What I am saying is, that's a darn good return for two years. Donny(although a good/very good player) is a player we won't compete with, outside of re-signing him. Our needs may change in two years, and the money spent extending Donny, may be much better served elsewhere.

Assuming this is the best offer, and KC is actually adding to the package, I just have a hard time knocking this.

Now, if you want to make an argument we could add to Donny for more upside, I could get behind that. I'm just not seeing the opportunity to swipe a #2 or better, using the chips we have.

I'm not taking the position that if it is Donovan to KC for Cameron+ that it will be a bad trade.

I'm just pointing out that Cameron, from every indication, is another Liberatore, Mikolas, etc. - he's another pitch-to-contact SP, not a swing-and-miss SP like a Sonny Gray, Liam Doyle, etc.

It may be that Cameron+ is the best deal the Cardinals can get, even though we've been told often how the market for Donovan is "on fire." It seems like a "safe" option rather than a more aggressive, riskier option which could pay more dividends later. If would not want them taking the "safe option" just because Cameron is going to pitch in the majors in 2026.

Sounds like the Cameron move is an- I have become comfortably numb moment. Safe. Middle of the road event. Is that what our best chip can bring?

My contention would be that "floor guys" are the prospects/players that you get when you trade your lesser assets - Gray, Contreras, etc. "Ceiling guys" - and such guys who are judged to have a better chance of reaching that ceiling - are who you try to deal your better assets like Donovan for.

Ok makes sense. Thanx.

[mattmitchl44]

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

We need pitching. We need innings this year, and the foreseeable few years. We'd like to have at least average production for those innings ( which I believe is safe to predict for Cameron.) Why exactly would this be a bad trade, other than some posters here think Donovan is worth more?

Can anyone here post an example of such pitcher we can sign for five years, and estimate what that costs in FA? Let's dock Cameron for being presumably two years to early to compete....what's a #3 cost for three years, two years from now?

I think the majority of this forum is way overselling Donny. I'm in no way saying not to shop around, and hope for a better deal. What I am saying is, that's a darn good return for two years. Donny(although a good/very good player) is a player we won't compete with, outside of re-signing him. Our needs may change in two years, and the money spent extending Donny, may be much better served elsewhere.

Assuming this is the best offer, and KC is actually adding to the package, I just have a hard time knocking this.

Now, if you want to make an argument we could add to Donny for more upside, I could get behind that. I'm just not seeing the opportunity to swipe a #2 or better, using the chips we have.

I'm not taking the position that if it is Donovan to KC for Cameron+ that it will be a bad trade.

I'm just pointing out that Cameron, from every indication, is another Liberatore, Mikolas, etc. - he's another pitch-to-contact SP, not a swing-and-miss SP like a Sonny Gray, Liam Doyle, etc.

It may be that Cameron+ is the best deal the Cardinals can get, even though we've been told often how the market for Donovan is "on fire." It seems like a "safe" option rather than a more aggressive, riskier option which could pay more dividends later. If would not want them taking the "safe option" just because Cameron is going to pitch in the majors in 2026.

Sounds like the Cameron move is an- I have become comfortably numb moment. Safe. Middle of the road event. Is that what our best chip can bring?

My contention would be that "floor guys" are the prospects/players that you get when you trade your lesser assets - Gray, Contreras, etc. "Ceiling guys" - and such guys who are judged to have a better chance of reaching that ceiling - are who you try to deal your better assets like Donovan for.

Ok makes sense. Thanx.

And to be clear - the Cardinals need to develop both more "floor guys" and more "ceiling guys", but they have been particularly deficient at developing "ceiling guys" and even more specifically "ceiling pitchers." Who was the last FOR SP the Cardinals actually bought up - Wainwright 20 years ago?

They have been a bit better with "floor guys" - Liberatore, Burleson, Herrera, etc.

[sikeston bulldog2]

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

We need pitching. We need innings this year, and the foreseeable few years. We'd like to have at least average production for those innings ( which I believe is safe to predict for Cameron.) Why exactly would this be a bad trade, other than some posters here think Donovan is worth more?

Can anyone here post an example of such pitcher we can sign for five years, and estimate what that costs in FA? Let's dock Cameron for being presumably two years to early to compete....what's a #3 cost for three years, two years from now?

I think the majority of this forum is way overselling Donny. I'm in no way saying not to shop around, and hope for a better deal. What I am saying is, that's a darn good return for two years. Donny(although a good/very good player) is a player we won't compete with, outside of re-signing him. Our needs may change in two years, and the money spent extending Donny, may be much better served elsewhere.

Assuming this is the best offer, and KC is actually adding to the package, I just have a hard time knocking this.

Now, if you want to make an argument we could add to Donny for more upside, I could get behind that. I'm just not seeing the opportunity to swipe a #2 or better, using the chips we have.

I'm not taking the position that if it is Donovan to KC for Cameron+ that it will be a bad trade.

I'm just pointing out that Cameron, from every indication, is another Liberatore, Mikolas, etc. - he's another pitch-to-contact SP, not a swing-and-miss SP like a Sonny Gray, Liam Doyle, etc.

It may be that Cameron+ is the best deal the Cardinals can get, even though we've been told often how the market for Donovan is "on fire." It seems like a "safe" option rather than a more aggressive, riskier option which could pay more dividends later. If would not want them taking the "safe option" just because Cameron is going to pitch in the majors in 2026.

Sounds like the Cameron move is an- I have become comfortably numb moment. Safe. Middle of the road event. Is that what our best chip can bring?

My contention would be that "floor guys" are the prospects/players that you get when you trade your lesser assets - Gray, Contreras, etc. "Ceiling guys" - and such guys who are judged to have a better chance of reaching that ceiling - are who you try to deal your better assets like Donovan for.

Ok makes sense. Thanx.

And to be clear - the Cardinals need to develop both more "floor guys" and more "ceiling guys", but they have been particularly deficient at developing "ceiling guys" and even more specifically "ceiling pitchers." Who was the last FOR SP the Cardinals actually bought up - Wainwright 20 years ago?

They have been a bit better with "floor guys" - Liberatore, Burleson, Herrera, etc.

I hear ya. As for ceiling pitchers- CMart AReyes come to mind. Had both of them reached full potential, this narrative would look different. Right. Or is that too far back to correlate.

[zbasspro]

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

We need pitching. We need innings this year, and the foreseeable few years. We'd like to have at least average production for those innings ( which I believe is safe to predict for Cameron.) Why exactly would this be a bad trade, other than some posters here think Donovan is worth more?

Can anyone here post an example of such pitcher we can sign for five years, and estimate what that costs in FA? Let's dock Cameron for being presumably two years to early to compete....what's a #3 cost for three years, two years from now?

I think the majority of this forum is way overselling Donny. I'm in no way saying not to shop around, and hope for a better deal. What I am saying is, that's a darn good return for two years. Donny(although a good/very good player) is a player we won't compete with, outside of re-signing him. Our needs may change in two years, and the money spent extending Donny, may be much better served elsewhere.

Assuming this is the best offer, and KC is actually adding to the package, I just have a hard time knocking this.

Now, if you want to make an argument we could add to Donny for more upside, I could get behind that. I'm just not seeing the opportunity to swipe a #2 or better, using the chips we have.

I'm not taking the position that if it is Donovan to KC for Cameron+ that it will be a bad trade.

I'm just pointing out that Cameron, from every indication, is another Liberatore, Mikolas, etc. - he's another pitch-to-contact SP, not a swing-and-miss SP like a Sonny Gray, Liam Doyle, etc.

It may be that Cameron+ is the best deal the Cardinals can get, even though we've been told often how the market for Donovan is "on fire." It seems like a "safe" option rather than a more aggressive, riskier option which could pay more dividends later. If would not want them taking the "safe option" just because Cameron is going to pitch in the majors in 2026.

I didn't mean to say you were taking that position, it seemed better to use your quote to say what I wanted to say, rather than quote the whole conversation, which is annoying to me. I don't necessarily disagree with you, as far as targeting more upside, but believe that would be good value, under normal circumstances.

It'll be interesting to see what happens, one way or the other.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.

And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.

Fans will take all positions just as you are comfortable with your call.
When we do that though are we not giving any credit to the people making the
decisions? If they are in charge of talent assessment and only see what a player
has done, era, this will be a dark period.

One thing after hanging around the game, knowing guys trying to make it, that always caused
me to rebel is others putting caps on these players. It's done throughout the game. Not all are
getting the same opportunities. Some are held in AAA for injury insurance for years, then labeled
a career minor leaguer. There is just not that much that separates these players.
If there was the draft could be much shorter and those first round draft success rates much higher.
I apologize if that comes through here, nothing personal.

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

What is wrong with a young #3 starter who has already outperformed that dubious expectation in his first year, and comes with 5 years of control?

Don’t we need one of those? Better than the other #4-5/6 types we have now. Or should we wait for 4 more Doyles and have an all ace rotation?

IMO - as I've stated before, I would take the risk of trying to get another prospect that is a "Liam Doyle-level" prospect, even if they are as far away as Doyle (ETA 2027).

The Cardinals need more quality out of the prospects they are developing - Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. I've said before, they need to develop at least one 4+ or 5+ fWAR position player and one young front of rotation SP. Maybe that will be exactly Wetherholt and Doyle, but I'd like to have more options that have that kind of ceiling if they can reach it. I don't think Cameron is it, however.

I've said - on multiple occasions - I'd be looking for a prospect like Nolan McLean from the Mets, and I'd package more with Donovan to get a prospect with that kind of ceiling instead of Cameron plus other pieces.

Would you trade a potential future Cy Young level pitching prospect for two years of a solid second baseman as the centerpiece of the deal?

I can't know exactly what the Mets or any other team would, or would not, do. Referencing BTV as a neutral, third party, IIRC they have had McLean about +41 and Donovan at +32, so they don't have it as wildly out of balance. You could definitely cover a gap like that with addition pieces.

I trust the Cardinals FO will do the best deal that they can. If that ends up being Cameron, so be it. But I'll be mildly disappointed for an organization that, supposedly, was supposed to be getting with the idea that they need more swing-and-miss from their pitchers and less pitch-to-contract.

Fair take on the swing and miss goal, but I think it could be overstated. I doubt they meant there’s no longer any room at all for a good pitch to contact guy, just maybe that we had too many, or strikeout guys would be the primary foundation.

Wouldn’t hurt to be a little versatile. Trends change yearly sometimes and the ability to throw different stuff at opponents isn’t a bad thing.

I think there are quality guys in both categories and bad ones in both too. Probably depends more on what’s between the ears, at least for the ones that seem to defy numerous indicators.

[CorneliusWolfe]

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

We need pitching. We need innings this year, and the foreseeable few years. We'd like to have at least average production for those innings ( which I believe is safe to predict for Cameron.) Why exactly would this be a bad trade, other than some posters here think Donovan is worth more?

Can anyone here post an example of such pitcher we can sign for five years, and estimate what that costs in FA? Let's dock Cameron for being presumably two years to early to compete....what's a #3 cost for three years, two years from now?

I think the majority of this forum is way overselling Donny. I'm in no way saying not to shop around, and hope for a better deal. What I am saying is, that's a darn good return for two years. Donny(although a good/very good player) is a player we won't compete with, outside of re-signing him. Our needs may change in two years, and the money spent extending Donny, may be much better served elsewhere.

Assuming this is the best offer, and KC is actually adding to the package, I just have a hard time knocking this.

Now, if you want to make an argument we could add to Donny for more upside, I could get behind that. I'm just not seeing the opportunity to swipe a #2 or better, using the chips we have.

Well stated on all points. I just don’t see anyone giving us a surefire 1-2 TOR starter for two years of a solid but not spectacular 2nd baseman.

And for those who are calling for more upside, I’d argue that upside has been more of a letdown than a payoff for a long time around here. Walker, Gorman, Carlson, TON, Nootbaar, Alex Reyes, Carlos Martinez — there sure was lot of upside in that group, but not much payoff.

I’m not saying they should act with Mo-level fear, but sometimes the safer bet can be the best bet.

[renostl]

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

We need pitching. We need innings this year, and the foreseeable few years. We'd like to have at least average production for those innings ( which I believe is safe to predict for Cameron.) Why exactly would this be a bad trade, other than some posters here think Donovan is worth more?

Can anyone here post an example of such pitcher we can sign for five years, and estimate what that costs in FA? Let's dock Cameron for being presumably two years to early to compete....what's a #3 cost for three years, two years from now?

I think the majority of this forum is way overselling Donny. I'm in no way saying not to shop around, and hope for a better deal. What I am saying is, that's a darn good return for two years. Donny(although a good/very good player) is a player we won't compete with, outside of re-signing him. Our needs may change in two years, and the money spent extending Donny, may be much better served elsewhere.

Assuming this is the best offer, and KC is actually adding to the package, I just have a hard time knocking this.

Now, if you want to make an argument we could add to Donny for more upside, I could get behind that. I'm just not seeing the opportunity to swipe a #2 or better, using the chips we have.

I'm not taking the position that if it is Donovan to KC for Cameron+ that it will be a bad trade.

I'm just pointing out that Cameron, from every indication, is another Liberatore, Mikolas, etc. - he's another pitch-to-contact SP, not a swing-and-miss SP like a Sonny Gray, Liam Doyle, etc.

It may be that Cameron+ is the best deal the Cardinals can get, even though we've been told often how the market for Donovan is "on fire." It seems like a "safe" option rather than a more aggressive, riskier option which could pay more dividends later. If would not want them taking the "safe option" just because Cameron is going to pitch in the majors in 2026.

Sounds like the Cameron move is an- I have become comfortably numb moment. Safe. Middle of the road event. Is that what our best chip can bring?

My contention would be that "floor guys" are the prospects/players that you get when you trade your lesser assets - Gray, Contreras, etc. "Ceiling guys" - and such guys who are judged to have a better chance of reaching that ceiling - are who you try to deal your better assets like Donovan for.

Ok makes sense. Thanx.

And to be clear - the Cardinals need to develop both more "floor guys" and more "ceiling guys", but they have been particularly deficient at developing "ceiling guys" and even more specifically "ceiling pitchers." Who was the last FOR SP the Cardinals actually bought up - Wainwright 20 years ago?

They have been a bit better with "floor guys" - Liberatore, Burleson, Herrera, etc.

But what is happening?
Pitching is getting a 20% tip on BTV. Gray once the AAV got more appropriate minus the back load brought
back upside on both players.
The lesser assets can't bring that meaningful certainty back unless it is closer to
a contract trade. They might bring those further away long shots because teams that
want them don't want to lose from their roster or from roster depth.

IMO, in order to get full value of a Donovan, if in the pitching market and having to pay the tip,
while wanting ceiling and not a 2+ seasons away to increase certainty they will have to add to the deal.
Donnie even with that demand he has won't check both boxes by himself due to his own
limitations.

Cameron does check boxes. BUT, he needs to fit. He needs to also be seen through the Cardinals
analysis as a #3. IMO if he cannot project to that level, walk away.