STLtoday.com Forums
https://interact.stltoday.com/forums/
https://interact.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1509051
Yea, that would be shocking to seeWhatashame wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 08:22 am Just noticed that they didn’t have Seth Hernandez going anywhere in the top 27 picks of the first round. There can’t be that much bias against a big HS arm that he would fall to 55 as the Cardinals next pick.
which mock?Whatashame wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 08:22 am Just noticed that they didn’t have Seth Hernandez going anywhere in the top 27 picks of the first round. There can’t be that much bias against a big HS arm that he would fall to 55 as the Cardinals next pick.
The Flobaseball one that you just put out that has us taking Willits.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:07 amwhich mock?Whatashame wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 08:22 am Just noticed that they didn’t have Seth Hernandez going anywhere in the top 27 picks of the first round. There can’t be that much bias against a big HS arm that he would fall to 55 as the Cardinals next pick.
that's a whoopsie on their part. They usually put out quality content. Not as fast as other publications, but the content is quality. Egg on their face. I bet their Social Media replies are toxic over this oneFuturegm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:11 amThe Flobaseball one that you just put out that has us taking Willits.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:07 amwhich mock?Whatashame wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 08:22 am Just noticed that they didn’t have Seth Hernandez going anywhere in the top 27 picks of the first round. There can’t be that much bias against a big HS arm that he would fall to 55 as the Cardinals next pick.
The internet isn't forgivingHaha yea, pretty big oversight. Unless they really think he’d fall for some really odd reason.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:16 amthat's a whoopsie on their part. They usually put out quality content. Not as fast as other publications, but the content is quality. Egg on their face. I bet their Social Media replies are toxic over this oneFuturegm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:11 amThe Flobaseball one that you just put out that has us taking Willits.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:07 amwhich mock?Whatashame wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 08:22 am Just noticed that they didn’t have Seth Hernandez going anywhere in the top 27 picks of the first round. There can’t be that much bias against a big HS arm that he would fall to 55 as the Cardinals next pick.
if he's falling out of the Top 15, then that's a serious chunk of money...all because teams aren't comfortable? I get the risk, but he's the best of the crop this year despite it.Futuregm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:21 amHaha yea, pretty big oversight. Unless they really think he’d fall for some really odd reason.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:16 amthat's a whoopsie on their part. They usually put out quality content. Not as fast as other publications, but the content is quality. Egg on their face. I bet their Social Media replies are toxic over this oneFuturegm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:11 amThe Flobaseball one that you just put out that has us taking Willits.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:07 amwhich mock?Whatashame wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 08:22 am Just noticed that they didn’t have Seth Hernandez going anywhere in the top 27 picks of the first round. There can’t be that much bias against a big HS arm that he would fall to 55 as the Cardinals next pick.
I feel like the A's or Rays wouldn't let him get past them.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:25 amif he's falling out of the Top 15, then that's a serious chunk of money...all because teams aren't comfortable? I get the risk, but he's the best of the crop this year despite it.Futuregm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:21 amHaha yea, pretty big oversight. Unless they really think he’d fall for some really odd reason.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:16 amthat's a whoopsie on their part. They usually put out quality content. Not as fast as other publications, but the content is quality. Egg on their face. I bet their Social Media replies are toxic over this oneFuturegm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:11 amThe Flobaseball one that you just put out that has us taking Willits.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:07 amwhich mock?Whatashame wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 08:22 am Just noticed that they didn’t have Seth Hernandez going anywhere in the top 27 picks of the first round. There can’t be that much bias against a big HS arm that he would fall to 55 as the Cardinals next pick.
Go to college, take NIL money if Vanderbilt is willing to pay handsomely.
I can't see many teams outside of the Top 15 paying him Overslot, which he would rightfully command.
A's slot value is $5.9m, Rays slot value is $5.3. I'm not an expert, but I think he'll expect north of $7m, and could/might settle for $6.5 to the A's, $6.25m to the Rays.An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:32 amI feel like the A's or Rays wouldn't let him get past them.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:25 amif he's falling out of the Top 15, then that's a serious chunk of money...all because teams aren't comfortable? I get the risk, but he's the best of the crop this year despite it.Futuregm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:21 amHaha yea, pretty big oversight. Unless they really think he’d fall for some really odd reason.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:16 amthat's a whoopsie on their part. They usually put out quality content. Not as fast as other publications, but the content is quality. Egg on their face. I bet their Social Media replies are toxic over this oneFuturegm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:11 amThe Flobaseball one that you just put out that has us taking Willits.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:07 amwhich mock?Whatashame wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 08:22 am Just noticed that they didn’t have Seth Hernandez going anywhere in the top 27 picks of the first round. There can’t be that much bias against a big HS arm that he would fall to 55 as the Cardinals next pick.
Go to college, take NIL money if Vanderbilt is willing to pay handsomely.
I can't see many teams outside of the Top 15 paying him Overslot, which he would rightfully command.
He can "expect" but he won't have any leverage IMO. Vanderbilt has a team-wide NIL deal... as I understand it, all players get an equal share and then individually they can seek other NIL opportunities. I might be wrong... but I can't imagine any college baseball team paying anywhere near that amount.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:39 amA's slot value is $5.9m, Rays slot value is $5.3. I'm not an expert, but I think he'll expect north of $7m, and could/might settle for $6.5 to the A's, $6.25m to the Rays.An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:32 amI feel like the A's or Rays wouldn't let him get past them.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:25 amif he's falling out of the Top 15, then that's a serious chunk of money...all because teams aren't comfortable? I get the risk, but he's the best of the crop this year despite it.Futuregm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:21 amHaha yea, pretty big oversight. Unless they really think he’d fall for some really odd reason.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:16 amthat's a whoopsie on their part. They usually put out quality content. Not as fast as other publications, but the content is quality. Egg on their face. I bet their Social Media replies are toxic over this oneFuturegm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:11 amThe Flobaseball one that you just put out that has us taking Willits.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:07 amwhich mock?Whatashame wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 08:22 am Just noticed that they didn’t have Seth Hernandez going anywhere in the top 27 picks of the first round. There can’t be that much bias against a big HS arm that he would fall to 55 as the Cardinals next pick.
Go to college, take NIL money if Vanderbilt is willing to pay handsomely.
I can't see many teams outside of the Top 15 paying him Overslot, which he would rightfully command.
He's worth a Top 5 slot value, he won't get that...I understand this. He's a risk. He's worth much more than the 11 and 14 slot values....and the industry knows that. I think he has some leverage
thanks for the Vandy info. I didn't know this.An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:43 amHe can "expect" but he won't have any leverage IMO. Vanderbilt has a team-wide NIL deal... as I understand it, all players get an equal share and then individually they can seek other NIL opportunities. I might be wrong... but I can't imagine any college baseball team paying anywhere near that amount.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:39 amA's slot value is $5.9m, Rays slot value is $5.3. I'm not an expert, but I think he'll expect north of $7m, and could/might settle for $6.5 to the A's, $6.25m to the Rays.An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:32 amI feel like the A's or Rays wouldn't let him get past them.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:25 amif he's falling out of the Top 15, then that's a serious chunk of money...all because teams aren't comfortable? I get the risk, but he's the best of the crop this year despite it.Futuregm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:21 amHaha yea, pretty big oversight. Unless they really think he’d fall for some really odd reason.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:16 amthat's a whoopsie on their part. They usually put out quality content. Not as fast as other publications, but the content is quality. Egg on their face. I bet their Social Media replies are toxic over this oneFuturegm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:11 amThe Flobaseball one that you just put out that has us taking Willits.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:07 amwhich mock?Whatashame wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 08:22 am Just noticed that they didn’t have Seth Hernandez going anywhere in the top 27 picks of the first round. There can’t be that much bias against a big HS arm that he would fall to 55 as the Cardinals next pick.
Go to college, take NIL money if Vanderbilt is willing to pay handsomely.
I can't see many teams outside of the Top 15 paying him Overslot, which he would rightfully command.
He's worth a Top 5 slot value, he won't get that...I understand this. He's a risk. He's worth much more than the 11 and 14 slot values....and the industry knows that. I think he has some leverage
Maybe if he slips farther than that, he bypasses and goes the Gerrit Cole route... of being a late first rounder and heading to college. It worked for Cole, but not many (any?) others.
I don't think that if you draft him that high, that it would take an overslot number to get him signed. He'd be crazy to pass it up unless he's just hellbent on going to college. There is near zero upside and way too much risk.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:46 amthanks for the Vandy info. I didn't know this.An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:43 amHe can "expect" but he won't have any leverage IMO. Vanderbilt has a team-wide NIL deal... as I understand it, all players get an equal share and then individually they can seek other NIL opportunities. I might be wrong... but I can't imagine any college baseball team paying anywhere near that amount.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:39 amA's slot value is $5.9m, Rays slot value is $5.3. I'm not an expert, but I think he'll expect north of $7m, and could/might settle for $6.5 to the A's, $6.25m to the Rays.An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:32 amI feel like the A's or Rays wouldn't let him get past them.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:25 amif he's falling out of the Top 15, then that's a serious chunk of money...all because teams aren't comfortable? I get the risk, but he's the best of the crop this year despite it.Futuregm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:21 amHaha yea, pretty big oversight. Unless they really think he’d fall for some really odd reason.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:16 amthat's a whoopsie on their part. They usually put out quality content. Not as fast as other publications, but the content is quality. Egg on their face. I bet their Social Media replies are toxic over this oneFuturegm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:11 amThe Flobaseball one that you just put out that has us taking Willits.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:07 amwhich mock?Whatashame wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 08:22 am Just noticed that they didn’t have Seth Hernandez going anywhere in the top 27 picks of the first round. There can’t be that much bias against a big HS arm that he would fall to 55 as the Cardinals next pick.
Go to college, take NIL money if Vanderbilt is willing to pay handsomely.
I can't see many teams outside of the Top 15 paying him Overslot, which he would rightfully command.
He's worth a Top 5 slot value, he won't get that...I understand this. He's a risk. He's worth much more than the 11 and 14 slot values....and the industry knows that. I think he has some leverage
Maybe if he slips farther than that, he bypasses and goes the Gerrit Cole route... of being a late first rounder and heading to college. It worked for Cole, but not many (any?) others.
what about the "settle" numbers....are those too high? 6.5 and 6.25?....600K and 900K north of the slot. I'm probably wrong on that....the A's do have a ton of money to spend at 16m. Rays not so much at 10m
I'm sorry....I flipped the correct info....Rays have the 16.7m in slot value, A's have 10.5mAn Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 12:10 pmI don't think that if you draft him that high, that it would take an overslot number to get him signed. He'd be crazy to pass it up unless he's just hellbent on going to college. There is near zero upside and way too much risk.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:46 amthanks for the Vandy info. I didn't know this.An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:43 amHe can "expect" but he won't have any leverage IMO. Vanderbilt has a team-wide NIL deal... as I understand it, all players get an equal share and then individually they can seek other NIL opportunities. I might be wrong... but I can't imagine any college baseball team paying anywhere near that amount.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:39 amA's slot value is $5.9m, Rays slot value is $5.3. I'm not an expert, but I think he'll expect north of $7m, and could/might settle for $6.5 to the A's, $6.25m to the Rays.An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:32 amI feel like the A's or Rays wouldn't let him get past them.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 11:25 amif he's falling out of the Top 15, then that's a serious chunk of money...all because teams aren't comfortable? I get the risk, but he's the best of the crop this year despite it.Futuregm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:21 amHaha yea, pretty big oversight. Unless they really think he’d fall for some really odd reason.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:16 amthat's a whoopsie on their part. They usually put out quality content. Not as fast as other publications, but the content is quality. Egg on their face. I bet their Social Media replies are toxic over this oneFuturegm2 wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:11 amThe Flobaseball one that you just put out that has us taking Willits.craviduce wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 10:07 amwhich mock?Whatashame wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 08:22 am Just noticed that they didn’t have Seth Hernandez going anywhere in the top 27 picks of the first round. There can’t be that much bias against a big HS arm that he would fall to 55 as the Cardinals next pick.
Go to college, take NIL money if Vanderbilt is willing to pay handsomely.
I can't see many teams outside of the Top 15 paying him Overslot, which he would rightfully command.
He's worth a Top 5 slot value, he won't get that...I understand this. He's a risk. He's worth much more than the 11 and 14 slot values....and the industry knows that. I think he has some leverage
Maybe if he slips farther than that, he bypasses and goes the Gerrit Cole route... of being a late first rounder and heading to college. It worked for Cole, but not many (any?) others.
what about the "settle" numbers....are those too high? 6.5 and 6.25?....600K and 900K north of the slot. I'm probably wrong on that....the A's do have a ton of money to spend at 16m. Rays not so much at 10m
If he slides to the back of the first / early second, then it'd have to be an overslot number I'd guess.
Carter Holton is a recent good example... and granted, not as highly rated as Hernandez. He likely would've gone 50-70 out of high school but he was committed to Vandy. Someone took a late flyer on him, maybe 19th round, but he went to college.
Some injuries at Vandy, so 3 years later he gets drafted maybe around the same spot in the second round he likely would have 3 years prior. And I think he's currently on the IL.
Arnold has the most helium of all the arms at the top of the draft. Arnold has consistently been one of the top arms and he didn't do anything this year to suggest he's not going to go top 6. With how the way the season ended, I'm expecting him to go first. I don't think he gets past the Angels at 2 though. I don't hate Arquette at all. Am I tripping over him? Probably not. Plus, I don't think there's going to be much in the way of savings there. JoJo seems like he's going to shift off of short as he gets older/bigger. If we're going to go in that mold, I'd rather go with the more advanced guy in Arquette.An Old Friend wrote: ↑26 Jun 2025 08:18 amOf the pitchers at the top, I like Jamie Arnold better than Anderson or Doyle. I don't see any chance that the Cards take a swing at Hernandez at 5, it's far too risky when you're picking that high.
I'm very intrigued by JoJo Parker or Arquette at 5.