Noah Cameron is rumored for Donovan

[JuanAgosto]

Only minor concern I have is that like lefty hitters we are loaded with lefty pitchers. Cameron is a lefty, Doyle will hopefully be up soon then add Libby and our other top prospect pitchers and we don’t seem to have much from the right side. Maybe that’s a good thing?

Could be. They could also trade the excess for positions of need

I forgot that Mo is gone and we now hopefully will be able to ascertain who to trade and who to
Keep.

Hallelujah

That putz would sit around with his thumb up his (donkey) all winter. Laziest man in baseball.

Not as lazy as your posts

Your response is pretty lazy.

Played to the level of the post I responded to

Actually, it is lazier. My post included a thought. Yours was just a critique. Surely you can muster something better.

[renostl]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.

And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.

Fans will take all positions just as you are comfortable with your call.
When we do that though are we not giving any credit to the people making the
decisions? If they are in charge of talent assessment and only see what a player
has done, era, this will be a dark period.

One thing after hanging around the game, knowing guys trying to make it, that always caused
me to rebel is others putting caps on these players. It's done throughout the game. Not all are
getting the same opportunities. Some are held in AAA for injury insurance for years, then labeled
a career minor leaguer. There is just not that much that separates these players.
If there was the draft could be much shorter and those first round draft success rates much higher.
I apologize if that comes through here, nothing personal.

[mattmitchl44]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.

And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.

Fans will take all positions just as you are comfortable with your call.
When we do that though are we not giving any credit to the people making the
decisions? If they are in charge of talent assessment and only see what a player
has done, era, this will be a dark period.

One thing after hanging around the game, knowing guys trying to make it, that always caused
me to rebel is others putting caps on these players. It's done throughout the game. Not all are
getting the same opportunities. Some are held in AAA for injury insurance for years, then labeled
a career minor leaguer. There is just not that much that separates these players.
If there was the draft could be much shorter and those first round draft success rates much higher.
I apologize if that comes through here, nothing personal.

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

[renostl]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.

And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.

If we got this guy, and no one else, does he become our number one.

If he's all they get, we don't have a #1, and I suspect Liberatore would be the opening day starter.

Libby
Cameron
McG

You want youth- you got it.

Fitts. Another 26 y/o who does have stuff. Health stuff would be nice.

Also another player traded for Verdugo for those who like Verdugo trades.

[renostl]

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

Matt you are a guy who explained his reasons and did
not steal those reasons from someone else. You did so clear and
concisely. It is perfectly fine that you have come to a conclusion.
They were read
and respected.

I have mine. We are VERY close currently in that assessment.
A #3 is a good piece IMO, and he is in MLB doing it. Compare to the growing
pains of Liberatore who at 26 still needs a step forward and is an
A1 aa a 26 y/o.
I'm open to see what happens, it could go negative too.

[IndCard75]

I wouldn’t hate it but wouldn’t be super excited either.
I will say though cost controlled SP even if they are only a 3/4 type pitcher is extremely valuable.

I was hoping for something more like a trade with Ms for Anderson or Sloan. I realize that probably isn’t happening but one can always dream.

I would also like to add, I appreciate some of the great information in the replies in this post. For example comparing the era to fip of guys like Maddux etc. Great info. Thanks

[icon]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.

And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.

Fans will take all positions just as you are comfortable with your call.
When we do that though are we not giving any credit to the people making the
decisions? If they are in charge of talent assessment and only see what a player
has done, era, this will be a dark period.

One thing after hanging around the game, knowing guys trying to make it, that always caused
me to rebel is others putting caps on these players. It's done throughout the game. Not all are
getting the same opportunities. Some are held in AAA for injury insurance for years, then labeled
a career minor leaguer. There is just not that much that separates these players.
If there was the draft could be much shorter and those first round draft success rates much higher.
I apologize if that comes through here, nothing personal.

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

Tom Glavine had a pretty nice career with just a 5.32 K/9.

[mattmitchl44]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.

And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.

Fans will take all positions just as you are comfortable with your call.
When we do that though are we not giving any credit to the people making the
decisions? If they are in charge of talent assessment and only see what a player
has done, era, this will be a dark period.

One thing after hanging around the game, knowing guys trying to make it, that always caused
me to rebel is others putting caps on these players. It's done throughout the game. Not all are
getting the same opportunities. Some are held in AAA for injury insurance for years, then labeled
a career minor leaguer. There is just not that much that separates these players.
If there was the draft could be much shorter and those first round draft success rates much higher.
I apologize if that comes through here, nothing personal.

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

Tom Glavine had a pretty nice career with just a 5.32 K/9.

Completely different era.

[icon]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.

And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.

Fans will take all positions just as you are comfortable with your call.
When we do that though are we not giving any credit to the people making the
decisions? If they are in charge of talent assessment and only see what a player
has done, era, this will be a dark period.

One thing after hanging around the game, knowing guys trying to make it, that always caused
me to rebel is others putting caps on these players. It's done throughout the game. Not all are
getting the same opportunities. Some are held in AAA for injury insurance for years, then labeled
a career minor leaguer. There is just not that much that separates these players.
If there was the draft could be much shorter and those first round draft success rates much higher.
I apologize if that comes through here, nothing personal.

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

Tom Glavine had a pretty nice career with just a 5.32 K/9.

Completely different era.

Now I'm not comparing Cameron to Glavine, just saying high K/9 isn't essential if you have pitches that are hard to time and square up. Keeping hitters off-balance, pitching in and out, and up and down are still a thing. That hasn't changed no matter what the era.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.

And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.

Fans will take all positions just as you are comfortable with your call.
When we do that though are we not giving any credit to the people making the
decisions? If they are in charge of talent assessment and only see what a player
has done, era, this will be a dark period.

One thing after hanging around the game, knowing guys trying to make it, that always caused
me to rebel is others putting caps on these players. It's done throughout the game. Not all are
getting the same opportunities. Some are held in AAA for injury insurance for years, then labeled
a career minor leaguer. There is just not that much that separates these players.
If there was the draft could be much shorter and those first round draft success rates much higher.
I apologize if that comes through here, nothing personal.

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

Tom Glavine had a pretty nice career with just a 5.32 K/9.

Completely different era.

Masterful control - keep hitters off balance, disrupts a hitter’s ability to focus on any particular part of the plate, make defensive alignments highly effective, creates indecisiveness resulting in poor swing decisions, allows a pitcher to consistently attack hitter’s cold zones and much more.

Which of those timeless, highly effective and proven attributes are no longer relevant in today’s pitching strategy?

These 200 strikeout era players would hate him and wish he was feeding them high velocity fastballs. They struggled trying to handle Kyle Hendricks.

Starting to think you’re just a f-ing troll.

[mattmitchl44]

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.

And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.

Fans will take all positions just as you are comfortable with your call.
When we do that though are we not giving any credit to the people making the
decisions? If they are in charge of talent assessment and only see what a player
has done, era, this will be a dark period.

One thing after hanging around the game, knowing guys trying to make it, that always caused
me to rebel is others putting caps on these players. It's done throughout the game. Not all are
getting the same opportunities. Some are held in AAA for injury insurance for years, then labeled
a career minor leaguer. There is just not that much that separates these players.
If there was the draft could be much shorter and those first round draft success rates much higher.
I apologize if that comes through here, nothing personal.

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

Tom Glavine had a pretty nice career with just a 5.32 K/9.

Completely different era.

Now I'm not comparing Cameron to Glavine, just saying high K/9 isn't essential if you have pitches that are hard to time and square up. Keeping hitters off-balance, pitching in and out, and up and down are still a thing. That hasn't changed no matter what the era.

Of the top 18 qualified pitchers in ERA (ERAs below 3.50) in 2025

7 were 10+ K/9
7 were 9 to 10 K/9
2 were 8 to 9 K/9
1 was 7 to 8 K/9 (Boyd)
1 was 6 to 7 K/9 (Bello)

Of pitchers over 2021-2025 who threw at least 300 IP, 52 have ERAs below 3.50

23 were 10+ K/9
11 were 9 to 10 K/9
15 were 8 to 9 K/9
1 was 7 to 8 K/9 (Javier Assad)
2 were 6 to 7 K/9 (Tyler Rogers, Wade Miley)

It is extremely unlikely to be a #1/#2 SP today without at least 8 K/9.

[kyace]

If they had the ABS strike zone when Glavine pitched he would have been out of the league after a few years. Never saw another pitcher get the benefit of strike calls on pitches clearly 4-5 inches off the plate like he did. Great control to hit the glove though even if it was off the plate.

[Galatians221jb1]

If they had the ABS strike zone when Glavine pitched he would have been out of the league after a few years. Never saw another pitcher get the benefit of strike calls on pitches clearly 4-5 inches off the plate like he did. Great control to hit the glove though even if it was off the plate.

Same with his teammate Maddux

[CorneliusWolfe]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.

And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.

Fans will take all positions just as you are comfortable with your call.
When we do that though are we not giving any credit to the people making the
decisions? If they are in charge of talent assessment and only see what a player
has done, era, this will be a dark period.

One thing after hanging around the game, knowing guys trying to make it, that always caused
me to rebel is others putting caps on these players. It's done throughout the game. Not all are
getting the same opportunities. Some are held in AAA for injury insurance for years, then labeled
a career minor leaguer. There is just not that much that separates these players.
If there was the draft could be much shorter and those first round draft success rates much higher.
I apologize if that comes through here, nothing personal.

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

What is wrong with a young #3 starter who has already outperformed that dubious expectation in his first year, and comes with 5 years of control?

Don’t we need one of those? Better than the other #4-5/6 types we have now. Or should we wait for 4 more Doyles and have an all ace rotation?

As far as peripherals…are they the same metrics you used to outline how Tom Glavine sucked?

[mattmitchl44]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.

And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.

Fans will take all positions just as you are comfortable with your call.
When we do that though are we not giving any credit to the people making the
decisions? If they are in charge of talent assessment and only see what a player
has done, era, this will be a dark period.

One thing after hanging around the game, knowing guys trying to make it, that always caused
me to rebel is others putting caps on these players. It's done throughout the game. Not all are
getting the same opportunities. Some are held in AAA for injury insurance for years, then labeled
a career minor leaguer. There is just not that much that separates these players.
If there was the draft could be much shorter and those first round draft success rates much higher.
I apologize if that comes through here, nothing personal.

As I said - IMO he is capped at a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.

I didn't say he was absolutely capped. But I certainly stick by that he needs to improve to break through that level.

What is wrong with a young #3 starter who has already outperformed that dubious expectation in his first year, and comes with 5 years of control?

Don’t we need one of those? Better than the other #4-5/6 types we have now. Or should we wait for 4 more Doyles and have an all ace rotation?

IMO - as I've stated before, I would take the risk of trying to get another prospect that is a "Liam Doyle-level" prospect, even if they are as far away as Doyle (ETA 2027).

The Cardinals need more quality out of the prospects they are developing - Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. I've said before, they need to develop at least one 4+ or 5+ fWAR position player and one young front of rotation SP. Maybe that will be exactly Wetherholt and Doyle, but I'd like to have more options that have that kind of ceiling if they can reach it. I don't think Cameron is it, however.

I've said - on multiple occasions - I'd be looking for a prospect like Nolan McLean from the Mets, and I'd package more with Donovan to get a prospect with that kind of ceiling instead of Cameron plus other pieces.

[smilinjoefission]

Cameron would be #1 ace on this team as of now given his ERA and WAR. That's what the Cards need, a cheap, controlled starter who can help not only during the rebuild, but actually be a part of until the end. So if the trade is Cameron for Donovan, yeah I'd like more, but is anyone offering instant pitching help in the form of someone who as of right now would be their top starter based on last season's numbers? Liberatore, McG, and Cameron make a solid 3 of 5.