Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

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renostl
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by renostl »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 18 Dec 2025 14:15 pm
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 13:18 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 18 Dec 2025 12:48 pm
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 12:20 pm
mattmitchl44 wrote: 18 Dec 2025 12:10 pm
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 11:47 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 18 Dec 2025 11:12 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 18 Dec 2025 09:27 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 18 Dec 2025 06:44 am
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 00:25 am
Poojols wrote: 18 Dec 2025 00:15 am Is this a drunk rant? Or is English your second language?

You'd rather keep Gray during a full rebuild? Yikes.
Nope, I would rather not rebuild and work towards a 90+ win season that can compete. There is no reason St. Louis can't be the Blue Jays. Except for you of course!!!!
The Cardinals were not getting to a 90+ roster in 2026 within any conceivable amount of spending.
Kyle Tucker alone would take this .500 team to 90 wins.
There is zero factual basis for that conclusion. None.

Tucker is consistently a 4+ fWAR player. This isn't close to an 86 win team without him. They were only a 78 win team last year, subtracted Helsley, Matz, Fedde, Mikolas, and Maton, and even if they kept them Gray, Arenado, Contreras, etc. would be/have been expected to be declining players.

They are MILES (and not Mikolas) from being a 90+ win team.

Even WITH Tucker, who they almost certainly couldn't get to sign with them, they are at least two, and probably three, borderline All-Star or better players away from being a serious 90+ win contender.
It's baseball, nobody can predict anything about anything and we go with the flow. I think we can all agree upgrades like Tucker, Valdez and May over Mikolas definitely make us more competitive and give us a shot, definitely more fun and happier to root for. Maybe a signings like that inspires the club, makes them work harder, puts people in the stands that encourage and demand better play. 5 WAR is definitely better than what Walker is putting up (fact)!
Nothing about the future, of anything, is certain. But that doesn't mean that you don't try to make the most probable assessment that you can. And the most probable assessment is that this team is MILES from being a 90+ win team.

The Cardinals are trying to get away from the "let's give it a shot and hope to be good enough to just make the playoffs and then maybe anything can happen" philosophy. They are trying to get to a "let's patiently and systematically rebuild this organization so that we can have significantly more talented rosters in the future" philosophy.

As noted before, the problem with investing RIGHT NOW in a Tucker and Valdez is that they don't make you good enough to be really competitive in the short run and, if the rest of your roster does become good enough to be competitive in the long run, there is a significant likelihood that the Tucker, Valdez, etc. that you signed RIGHT NOW will be a shell of themselves at that point, but you'll still be paying them $30+ million a year. So when the rest of your roster is good again, the Tucker, Valdez, etc. that you insisted on signing RIGHT NOW will be what holds you back from being able to be really competitive.
That sir is the absolute Pirates and Reds model i don't want to accept!

Give me the Blue Jays, I can root for Ernie, I can root for Freese, I can root for Donovan and Matt Carpenter! I will show up for a Pirates version of the Cards, will you and 3+ million strong?
I don't care about why you or anyone else will, or will not, show up.

I only care about what the organization simply has to do to give them the best possible chance of winning a WS in the foreseeable future. If you want to show up for that, fine. If you do not, fine.
Bwaaaahahaha!!!!! And you think trading away Gray makes us closer to winning in the foreseeable future? The future is now dip 💩. BRING IT! Honestly your gay 5 year plan sounds like some reds or pirates nonsense. Put the fans in the stands and give them some great entertainment and experiences. Now! not in the future.
They aren't winning anything in 2026, with or without Gray.
They almost certainly also aren't winning anything in 2027, with or without Gray.
And Gray could easily be out of baseball at age 38 by 2028.

So Gray is pretty much completely irrelevant to the Cardinals winning anything, anytime.
That's a big part of it.
It's been my position that part of the issue with Gray was for $40M he
was a single pitcher for a single year on a team that need multiple pitchers
for multiple years.
They turned him into 2 pitchers for 2026, 1 they have until 2032 if they want
and the other gives a 4th pitcher in the Cards top 10 prospects.
Seattle might like to do something similar with Castillo.
Quincy Varnish
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by Quincy Varnish »

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CorneliusWolfe
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by CorneliusWolfe »

mattmitchl44 wrote: 18 Dec 2025 11:12 am
CorneliusWolfe wrote: 18 Dec 2025 09:27 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 18 Dec 2025 06:44 am
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 00:25 am
Poojols wrote: 18 Dec 2025 00:15 am Is this a drunk rant? Or is English your second language?

You'd rather keep Gray during a full rebuild? Yikes.
Nope, I would rather not rebuild and work towards a 90+ win season that can compete. There is no reason St. Louis can't be the Blue Jays. Except for you of course!!!!
The Cardinals were not getting to a 90+ roster in 2026 within any conceivable amount of spending.
Kyle Tucker alone would take this .500 team to 90 wins.
There is zero factual basis for that conclusion. None.

Tucker is consistently a 4+ fWAR player. This isn't close to an 86 win team without him. They were only a 78 win team last year, subtracted Helsley, Matz, Fedde, Mikolas, and Maton, and even if they kept them Gray, Arenado, Contreras, etc. would be/have been expected to be declining players.

They are MILES (and not Mikolas) from being a 90+ win team.

Even WITH Tucker, who they almost certainly couldn't get to sign with them, they are at least two, and probably three, borderline All-Star or better players away from being a serious 90+ win contender.
Not Tucker singlehandedly, but he would be replacing JW and his negative production, Dustin May should be an improvement and might be better than Somny Gray’s production from last year, no Mikolas or Fedde, and add in Wetherholt. Do you think all that bad play didn’t factor into the 78 low win total? Addition by subtraction is a real factor.

Also, can we not expect SOME contribution from all those great prospects that you love so much? We’ve been selling off for a few years now, so according to your master plan, help should be on the way.
hofmann13
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by hofmann13 »

Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 08:18 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 18 Dec 2025 06:44 am
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 00:25 am
Poojols wrote: 18 Dec 2025 00:15 am Is this a drunk rant? Or is English your second language?

You'd rather keep Gray during a full rebuild? Yikes.
Nope, I would rather not rebuild and work towards a 90+ win season that can compete. There is no reason St. Louis can't be the Blue Jays. Except for you of course!!!!
The Cardinals were not getting to a 90+ roster in 2026 within any conceivable amount of spending.
The Cardinals can't spend, you all stopped showing up, called for boycotts, bashed on the team and wrecked St. Louis baseball. Because all they did was put together 90 win teams that had a chance to go deep in the playoffs. That was the model, I loved it, thought it was the best run of Cardinals baseball ever and millions of fans showed up for it.

Great job on fixing that!
This right here implies to me you are either fairly young or lack some perspective. You are entitled to your opinion, but i don't know anyone who would consider anything in the past decade the best run of cardinal baseball ever. If you're going all the way back to pujols, rolen, carp, Edmonds days, ok, but recall pujols was a huge stroke of luck, we took a shot on carp when he was hurt (sound familiar?), and the Phillies and Rolen were in a contact stalemate causing ill will on both sides.

But even then, i don't know anyone is considering 00s baseball the best Cardinals run ever...

But the Cardinals plan has never been to go out and sign the highest priced guys on the market. And when they've tried, when has THAT worked out?

They have to hit on young talent first then sign the complementary free agents.
Cusecards
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by Cusecards »

Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 02:03 am
Poojols wrote: 18 Dec 2025 00:15 am Is this a drunk rant? Or is English your second language?

You'd rather keep Gray during a full rebuild? Yikes.
Yeah I might be a dunkasouras, but I will still beat you or Trump or any of his kids in a street fight along with a debate, wanna bet? I have millions what about you?
Serious question....though I doubt you’ll answer.
What USED to be your screen name????
Your incoherent rantings sound familiar.
cardstatman
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by cardstatman »

I'm hoping Dustin May was signed to pitch for 4 months and then flip at the trade deadline for prospects.

That would mean the new Cardinals FO understands how to tank. That's the only encouraging thing about the signing of May.

The Cards do not control him for 2027. The Cardinals have less control of May than they have of Donovan or Nootbar or or had of Gray.

He's not a future piece to build on... unless the Cardinals extend him at a FA market rate.
Ike Hammett
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by Ike Hammett »

hofmann13 wrote: 18 Dec 2025 20:07 pm
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 08:18 am
mattmitchl44 wrote: 18 Dec 2025 06:44 am
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 00:25 am
Poojols wrote: 18 Dec 2025 00:15 am Is this a drunk rant? Or is English your second language?

You'd rather keep Gray during a full rebuild? Yikes.
Nope, I would rather not rebuild and work towards a 90+ win season that can compete. There is no reason St. Louis can't be the Blue Jays. Except for you of course!!!!
The Cardinals were not getting to a 90+ roster in 2026 within any conceivable amount of spending.
The Cardinals can't spend, you all stopped showing up, called for boycotts, bashed on the team and wrecked St. Louis baseball. Because all they did was put together 90 win teams that had a chance to go deep in the playoffs. That was the model, I loved it, thought it was the best run of Cardinals baseball ever and millions of fans showed up for it.

Great job on fixing that!
This right here implies to me you are either fairly young or lack some perspective. You are entitled to your opinion, but i don't know anyone who would consider anything in the past decade the best run of cardinal baseball ever. If you're going all the way back to pujols, rolen, carp, Edmonds days, ok, but recall pujols was a huge stroke of luck, we took a shot on carp when he was hurt (sound familiar?), and the Phillies and Rolen were in a contact stalemate causing ill will on both sides.

But even then, i don't know anyone is considering 00s baseball the best Cardinals run ever...

But the Cardinals plan has never been to go out and sign the highest priced guys on the market. And when they've tried, when has THAT worked out?

They have to hit on young talent first then sign the complementary free agents.
I was referring to the DeWitt era and model as the best ever in Cards history. The model you all liked to bash on and fix. Nobody is asking or reasonably expecting Ohtani type deals, the Cardinals do and have spent (when "fans" show up, of course). They get or extend lots of good and great players, Goldy, Nado, Contreras, Gray, Waino, Yadi, and spent a lot.
Ike Hammett
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by Ike Hammett »

cardstatman wrote: 18 Dec 2025 21:33 pm I'm hoping Dustin May was signed to pitch for 4 months and then flip at the trade deadline for prospects.

That would mean the new Cardinals FO understands how to tank. That's the only encouraging thing about the signing of May.

The Cards do not control him for 2027. The Cardinals have less control of May than they have of Donovan or Nootbar or or had of Gray.

He's not a future piece to build on... unless the Cardinals extend him at a FA market rate.
Why are you hoping for the Cardinals to suck? You suck!
cardstatman
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by cardstatman »

Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:12 pm
cardstatman wrote: 18 Dec 2025 21:33 pm I'm hoping Dustin May was signed to pitch for 4 months and then flip at the trade deadline for prospects.

That would mean the new Cardinals FO understands how to tank. That's the only encouraging thing about the signing of May.

The Cards do not control him for 2027. The Cardinals have less control of May than they have of Donovan or Nootbar or or had of Gray.

He's not a future piece to build on... unless the Cardinals extend him at a FA market rate.
Why are you hoping for the Cardinals to suck? You suck!
What are you talking about? I hate the idea of tanking for the next several years.

I'm simply saying the Dustin May signing is not a logical part of a rebuild. We don't control him.

Also, there is the matter that Dustin May has NEVER had a good season in MLB... but the prospect lovers still love him at the age of 28.
Banner29
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by Banner29 »

Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:12 pm
cardstatman wrote: 18 Dec 2025 21:33 pm I'm hoping Dustin May was signed to pitch for 4 months and then flip at the trade deadline for prospects.

That would mean the new Cardinals FO understands how to tank. That's the only encouraging thing about the signing of May.

The Cards do not control him for 2027. The Cardinals have less control of May than they have of Donovan or Nootbar or or had of Gray.

He's not a future piece to build on... unless the Cardinals extend him at a FA market rate.
Why are you hoping for the Cardinals to suck? You suck!

When you redo your ugly, outdated, and poorly designed kitchen you accept the fact that it will look like a complete disaster for alittle while because you know that eventually it will become something much better and far more pretty going forward

It’s not that you want it to be a disaster, it’s just that you know it’s for the greater good.

Hope this helps
Ike Hammett
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by Ike Hammett »

cardstatman wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:17 pm
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:12 pm
cardstatman wrote: 18 Dec 2025 21:33 pm I'm hoping Dustin May was signed to pitch for 4 months and then flip at the trade deadline for prospects.

That would mean the new Cardinals FO understands how to tank. That's the only encouraging thing about the signing of May.

The Cards do not control him for 2027. The Cardinals have less control of May than they have of Donovan or Nootbar or or had of Gray.

He's not a future piece to build on... unless the Cardinals extend him at a FA market rate.
Why are you hoping for the Cardinals to suck? You suck!
What are you talking about? I hate the idea of tanking for the next several years.

I'm simply saying the Dustin May signing is not a logical part of a rebuild. We don't control him.

Also, there is the matter that Dustin May has NEVER had a good season in MLB... but the prospect lovers still love him at the age of 28.
Not really, you are simply saying you hope the Cardinals are so bad they will trade their best players. You are rooting for failure. How many more prospects do we need? And what makes you think they are going to be any good?
Ike Hammett
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by Ike Hammett »

Banner29 wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:17 pm
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:12 pm
cardstatman wrote: 18 Dec 2025 21:33 pm I'm hoping Dustin May was signed to pitch for 4 months and then flip at the trade deadline for prospects.

That would mean the new Cardinals FO understands how to tank. That's the only encouraging thing about the signing of May.

The Cards do not control him for 2027. The Cardinals have less control of May than they have of Donovan or Nootbar or or had of Gray.

He's not a future piece to build on... unless the Cardinals extend him at a FA market rate.
Why are you hoping for the Cardinals to suck? You suck!

When you redo your ugly, outdated, and poorly designed kitchen you accept the fact that it will look like a complete disaster for alittle while because you know that eventually it will become something much better and far more pretty going forward

It’s not that you want it to be a disaster, it’s just that you know it’s for the greater good.

Hope this helps
How long is a little while? Looks like permanent to me if nobody shows up, creating a downward spiral of losing. Good job, you made St Louis baseball the Pirates! Such a bad analogy, I know the kitchen will get done or can find someone else to finish it, that's not Reds or Pirates baseball that you want.
renostl
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by renostl »

cardstatman wrote: 18 Dec 2025 21:33 pm I'm hoping Dustin May was signed to pitch for 4 months and then flip at the trade deadline for prospects.

That would mean the new Cardinals FO understands how to tank. That's the only encouraging thing about the signing of May.

The Cards do not control him for 2027. The Cardinals have less control of May than they have of Donovan or Nootbar or or had of Gray.

He's not a future piece to build on... unless the Cardinals extend him at a FA market rate.
Correct,
Which is why they are still looking to add
a pitcher who has made it through a season before.
May has a RP contract for 2026.
mattmitchl44
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by mattmitchl44 »

Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:28 pm
cardstatman wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:17 pm
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:12 pm
cardstatman wrote: 18 Dec 2025 21:33 pm I'm hoping Dustin May was signed to pitch for 4 months and then flip at the trade deadline for prospects.

That would mean the new Cardinals FO understands how to tank. That's the only encouraging thing about the signing of May.

The Cards do not control him for 2027. The Cardinals have less control of May than they have of Donovan or Nootbar or or had of Gray.

He's not a future piece to build on... unless the Cardinals extend him at a FA market rate.
Why are you hoping for the Cardinals to suck? You suck!
What are you talking about? I hate the idea of tanking for the next several years.

I'm simply saying the Dustin May signing is not a logical part of a rebuild. We don't control him.

Also, there is the matter that Dustin May has NEVER had a good season in MLB... but the prospect lovers still love him at the age of 28.
Not really, you are simply saying you hope the Cardinals are so bad they will trade their best players. You are rooting for failure. How many more prospects do we need? And what makes you think they are going to be any good?
You need as many prospects as it takes to:

(1) Develop a group of ~18 pre-ARB and ARB players on the ML roster who effectively fill a variety of roles. You need a couple to be All-Star quality players, a few to be above average starters (position players and SPs), a few to be average starters, and some to be bench players and RPs.

(2) And then enough prospects behind that to keep delivering ~3 rookies who will be successful in roles on the ML team per year as you let some of the players from (1) go every year either through FA or trade.

(3) And you need to achieve (1) and (2) knowing that a certain percentage of prospects are never going to pan out as successful ML players. So you need MORE prospects, given the failure rate, to ensure that you achieve (1) and (2).
Banner29
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by Banner29 »

Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:33 pm
Banner29 wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:17 pm
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:12 pm
cardstatman wrote: 18 Dec 2025 21:33 pm I'm hoping Dustin May was signed to pitch for 4 months and then flip at the trade deadline for prospects.

That would mean the new Cardinals FO understands how to tank. That's the only encouraging thing about the signing of May.

The Cards do not control him for 2027. The Cardinals have less control of May than they have of Donovan or Nootbar or or had of Gray.

He's not a future piece to build on... unless the Cardinals extend him at a FA market rate.
Why are you hoping for the Cardinals to suck? You suck!

When you redo your ugly, outdated, and poorly designed kitchen you accept the fact that it will look like a complete disaster for alittle while because you know that eventually it will become something much better and far more pretty going forward

It’s not that you want it to be a disaster, it’s just that you know it’s for the greater good.

Hope this helps
How long is a little while? Looks like permanent to me if nobody shows up, creating a downward spiral of losing. Good job, you made St Louis baseball the Pirates! Such a bad analogy, I know the kitchen will get done or can find someone else to finish it, that's not Reds or Pirates baseball that you want.

You just say that because you’re menstruating. Rational men can see that this is all for the best long term
Adam2
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Re: Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

Post by Adam2 »

Banner29 wrote: 19 Dec 2025 07:23 am
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:33 pm
Banner29 wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:17 pm
Ike Hammett wrote: 18 Dec 2025 22:12 pm
cardstatman wrote: 18 Dec 2025 21:33 pm I'm hoping Dustin May was signed to pitch for 4 months and then flip at the trade deadline for prospects.

That would mean the new Cardinals FO understands how to tank. That's the only encouraging thing about the signing of May.

The Cards do not control him for 2027. The Cardinals have less control of May than they have of Donovan or Nootbar or or had of Gray.

He's not a future piece to build on... unless the Cardinals extend him at a FA market rate.
Why are you hoping for the Cardinals to suck? You suck!

When you redo your ugly, outdated, and poorly designed kitchen you accept the fact that it will look like a complete disaster for alittle while because you know that eventually it will become something much better and far more pretty going forward

It’s not that you want it to be a disaster, it’s just that you know it’s for the greater good.

Hope this helps
How long is a little while? Looks like permanent to me if nobody shows up, creating a downward spiral of losing. Good job, you made St Louis baseball the Pirates! Such a bad analogy, I know the kitchen will get done or can find someone else to finish it, that's not Reds or Pirates baseball that you want.

You just say that because you’re menstruating. Rational men can see that this is all for the best long term
well said, he's probably replying to all this while in the fetal position with his binky.

Obviously change was needed, and is happening. This does not mean we are now the Pirates. As prospects mature and show signs of being a playoff contender the cardinals have and will add the appropriate free agents. the pirates have never done that (the difference isn't that hard to spot)
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