kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.
I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.
With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18
FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.
Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23
I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.
The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.
Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.
Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.
I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.
Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.
Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.
The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.
Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.
How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.
I have no idea how the guy trends.
IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.
He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.
At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.
I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.
There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.
And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.
I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.
With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18
FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.
Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23
I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.
The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.
Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.
Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.
I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.
Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.
Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.
The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.
Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.
How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.
I have no idea how the guy trends.
IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.
He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.
At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.
I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.
There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.
And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.
If we got this guy, and no one else, does he become our number one.
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.
I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.
With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18
FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.
Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23
I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.
The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.
Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.
Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.
I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.
Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.
Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.
The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.
Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.
How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.
I have no idea how the guy trends.
IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.
He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.
At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.
I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.
There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.
And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.
If we got this guy, and no one else, does he become our number one.
He might be their #1 unless he turns into #2 next year.
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.
I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.
With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18
FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.
Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23
I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.
The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.
Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.
Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.
I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.
Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.
Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.
The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.
Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.
How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.
I have no idea how the guy trends.
IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.
He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.
At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.
I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.
There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.
And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.
If we got this guy, and no one else, does he become our number one.
If he's all they get, we don't have a #1, and I suspect Liberatore would be the opening day starter.
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.
I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.
With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18
FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.
Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23
I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.
The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.
Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.
Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.
I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.
Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.
Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.
The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.
Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.
How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.
I have no idea how the guy trends.
IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.
He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.
At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.
I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.
There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.
And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.
If we got this guy, and no one else, does he become our number one.
If he's all they get, we don't have a #1, and I suspect Liberatore would be the opening day starter.
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
Because what is known is that - when it comes to predicting future performance - those peripherals (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, etc.) are almost always much more reliable indicators than what you say, "ends up on the back of baseball cards."
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.
I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.
With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18
FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.
Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23
I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.
The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.
Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.
Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.
I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.
Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.
Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.
The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.
Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.
How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.
I have no idea how the guy trends.
IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.
He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.
At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.
I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.
There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.
And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.
You are correct that it is not yet known what STL can get in exchange for Donovan.
But if Cameron is the best offer they receive, the team would be far better off simply extending Donovan as I have long correctly advised.
Cameron could be really good, but I struggle to trade a good piece I feel like Cardinals could probably land with more elite talents (maybe not honed yet) than Cameron. Cameron being 26 and only getting 114 strikeouts for 138 innings is a concern in today's game (maybe not 20-25 years ago). To me Cameron sounds like a sell high candidate while Donny surely could bring more IMO.
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.
I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.
With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18
FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.
Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23
I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.
The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.
Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.
Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.
I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.
Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.
Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.
The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.
Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.
How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.
I have no idea how the guy trends.
IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.
He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.
At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.
I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.
There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.
And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.
If we got this guy, and no one else, does he become our number one.
If he's all they get, we don't have a #1, and I suspect Liberatore would be the opening day starter.
Libby
Cameron
McG
You want youth- you got it.
And that’s a good start. Add a good veteran pitcher on a shorter deal to provide mentorship and see if one of Doyle, Matthews or Clarke can step up and force their way in the mix. Even more youth.
But we’re talking to those who have an insatiable hunger for prospects and see no other path to success. They think the next Pujols and Wainwright will be stumbled upon by sacrificing quality for quantity.
Or maybe they brace themselves for many years of losing as a defense mechanism while secretly hoping to be surprised. Their negative loser mindset and fear is why they lack the creativity to think beyond any one course of action.
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.
I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.
With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18
FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.
Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23
I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.
The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.
Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.
Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.
I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.
Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.
Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.
The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.
Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.
How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.
I have no idea how the guy trends.
IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.
He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.
At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.
I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.
There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.
And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.
You are correct that it is not yet known what STL can get in exchange for Donovan.
But if Cameron is the best offer they receive, the team would be far better off simply extending Donovan as I have long correctly advised.
I like Donovan (who doesn’t?) but his extension years will be on the wrong side of 30. That is one area where I actually agree with the HPGF.
Solid young MLB roster players should be the trade targets, unless it is a Wetherholt-level prospect noticeably banging on the door. Tired of this lottery ticket, 3-4 years away [shirt] and tired of old tired players too.
We waited 4 years just to watch Liberatore’s growing pains. We traded for NA and PG just to watch them get old. Just like the Angels did with Pujols and just like someone is going to do with Donovan.
Cameron might not be THE guy, but he’s in the right category at least.
Galatians221jb1 wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 18:21 pm
Only minor concern I have is that like lefty hitters we are loaded with lefty pitchers. Cameron is a lefty, Doyle will hopefully be up soon then add Libby and our other top prospect pitchers and we don’t seem to have much from the right side. Maybe that’s a good thing?
Could be. They could also trade the excess for positions of need
I forgot that Mo is gone and we now hopefully will be able to ascertain who to trade and who to
Keep.
Hallelujah
That putz would sit around with his thumb up his (donkey) all winter. Laziest man in baseball.
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
Because what is known is that - when it comes to predicting future performance - those peripherals (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, etc.) are almost always much more reliable indicators than what you say, "ends up on the back of baseball cards."
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
Because what is known is that - when it comes to predicting future performance - those peripherals (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, etc.) are almost always much more reliable indicators than what you say, "ends up on the back of baseball cards."
kyace wrote: ↑07 Dec 2025 19:24 pm
Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.
Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.
You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.
Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.
Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.
I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.
With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18
FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.
Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23
I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.
The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.
Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.
Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.
I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.
Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.
Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.
The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.
Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.
How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.
I have no idea how the guy trends.
IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.
He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.
At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.
I would categorize Cameron as a lower variance option who probably has a long term floor of being a borderline #4/#5 SP but whose ceiling is probably capped at being a #3 SP unless he can change his arsenal/peripherals considerably.
There is certainly value in such a SP especially over their years of team control. But fans shouldn't delude themselves that the Cardinals would be trading for some "proven" front of rotation SP just because he had a 2.99 ERA last year.
And maybe a Cameron is the most the Cardinals can get for Donovan. We don't know.
You are correct that it is not yet known what STL can get in exchange for Donovan.
But if Cameron is the best offer they receive, the team would be far better off simply extending Donovan as I have long correctly advised.
I do not have a large problem with him having a contract through his age 33 season.
It would get labeled as a miss, perhaps it is, but it also would signal a change of the plan
as we know it.
Donovan is the person that needs to want it though not us.
The Cards should be aware of his desires, after all they are in A2 now, they have probably talked.
I fully expect Bloom will not stop acquiring players just because Donovan is not dealt.
That would be a paralyzing behavior trait of the prior FO.
