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An Old Friend wrote: ↑09 Jun 2024 21:42 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑09 Jun 2024 18:25 pm

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑09 Jun 2024 15:53 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑09 Jun 2024 09:31 am Can you veto a trade and then withdraw your veto later is an explanation is given?

Since we haven’t heard from either party - what might you regard a sufficient ‘explanation’?

I think it would be BL explaining whether they are aware of the regression predictions and if they think the players they are getting are going to keep producing at current levels nonetheless.

Barking Lion is lagging in 3 pitching categories - Wins, Strikeouts, and Quality Starts. He's also pacing to finish about 100 innings under the innings cap. Crochet has obviously been outstanding and close to Wheeler's equal. I get certainty in Wheeler and offload some pitching surplus and he gets an ace with another strong performing starter in Parker. Parker has made 10 starts and hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs in any of them. Both Crochet and Parker have far exceeded Fantasy Pros preseason projections.

Josh Smith's preseason projection / prediction was this: .231 AVG, .684 OPS, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 17 Runs, 2 SB
Josh Smith actual statistics through 63 games are these: .287 AVG, .810 OPS, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 32 Runs, 4 SB

Why would you lean so far into Fantasy Pros rest of season projections when they've whiffed so badly on these players?

Boooyah wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 05:03 am Just checking in, is everyone still active in this league?

In regards to the trade, AOF is about to tell y’all how you don’t understand the trade.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 04:28 am

An Old Friend wrote: ↑09 Jun 2024 21:42 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑09 Jun 2024 18:25 pm

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑09 Jun 2024 15:53 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑09 Jun 2024 09:31 am Can you veto a trade and then withdraw your veto later is an explanation is given?

Since we haven’t heard from either party - what might you regard a sufficient ‘explanation’?

I think it would be BL explaining whether they are aware of the regression predictions and if they think the players they are getting are going to keep producing at current levels nonetheless.

Barking Lion is lagging in 3 pitching categories - Wins, Strikeouts, and Quality Starts. He's also pacing to finish about 100 innings under the innings cap. Crochet has obviously been outstanding and close to Wheeler's equal. I get certainty in Wheeler and offload some pitching surplus and he gets an ace with another strong performing starter in Parker. Parker has made 10 starts and hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs in any of them. Both Crochet and Parker have far exceeded Fantasy Pros preseason projections.

Josh Smith's preseason projection / prediction was this: .231 AVG, .684 OPS, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 17 Runs, 2 SB
Josh Smith actual statistics through 63 games are these: .287 AVG, .810 OPS, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 32 Runs, 4 SB

Why would you lean so far into Fantasy Pros rest of season projections when they've whiffed so badly on these players?

To be fair, it is not just FP that is predicting serious regression, here are Yahoo's predictions:

Wheeler - Ranking #4 - 8.4 wins, 12.3 QS, 128 K, 2.88 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 116 IP
Sewald - Ranking #125 - 3 wins, 18 saves, 44.4 K, 2.98 ERA 1.00 WHIP in 34.4 IP

Crochet - Ranking #49 - 6.2 wins, 6.5 QS, 119 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 94.4 IP
Parker - Ranking #523 - 2.8 wins, 3.8 QS, 43.5 K, 4.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP in 48.8 IP
Smith - Ranking #1052 - 22.8 runs, 4.1 HR, 13.8 RBI, 2.4 SB, .224 BA, .686 OPS

That said, given how Parker and Smith have performed so far, I think I can suspend my disbelief just enough to convince myself to not veto this one.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 05:52 am BTW - just doing the math on the pitchers:

Wheeler/Sewald - 150.4 IP, 11.4 wins, 12.3 QS, 18 saves, 172.4 K, 2.90 ERA, 0.96 WHIP
Crochet/Parker - 143.2 IP, 9.0 wins, 10.3 QS, 0 saves, 162.5 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 06:32 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 05:52 am BTW - just doing the math on the pitchers:

Wheeler/Sewald - 150.4 IP, 11.4 wins, 12.3 QS, 18 saves, 172.4 K, 2.90 ERA, 0.96 WHIP
Crochet/Parker - 143.2 IP, 9.0 wins, 10.3 QS, 0 saves, 162.5 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

The side-by-side is a bit misleading when it’s 2 starting pitchers compared to 1 SP/1 RP. AOF would be getting 12 QS from one starter, more than both of the pitchers he’s sending combined… the same imbalance with the Ws, and he’s adding 18 saves.

I’ll also add that the projections for Parker are bad, if the assumption is that he stays healthy and in the Nats rotation. He should have about 20 more starts. I suppose they’re projecting he’s eaten by a bear sometime in August, if he’s only to throw 48-49 more innings.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:00 am Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

An Old Friend wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:11 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:00 am Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Fantasy Pros 2024 projection for Jared Jones:
107 IP, 95 Strikeouts, 6 Wins, 7 Quality Starts, 4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Jones already has 74 IP, 79 Strikeouts, 4 Wins, 8 Quality Starts and has a 3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Would you view his preseason projection as a sound one? There is a common theme, here - they miss badly on early career players.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:29 am

An Old Friend wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:11 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:00 am Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Fantasy Pros 2024 projection for Jared Jones:
107 IP, 95 Strikeouts, 6 Wins, 7 Quality Starts, 4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Jones already has 74 IP, 79 Strikeouts, 4 Wins, 8 Quality Starts and has a 3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Would you view his preseason projection as a sound one? There is a common theme, here - they miss badly on early career players.

I'm just taking at poke at QV there.

What does FP and Yahoo have as ROS projections for Jones (can't look them up from my office laptop)?

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:00 am Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

An Old Friend wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:42 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:29 am

An Old Friend wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:11 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:00 am Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Fantasy Pros 2024 projection for Jared Jones:
107 IP, 95 Strikeouts, 6 Wins, 7 Quality Starts, 4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Jones already has 74 IP, 79 Strikeouts, 4 Wins, 8 Quality Starts and has a 3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Would you view his preseason projection as a sound one? There is a common theme, here - they miss badly on early career players.

I'm just taking at poke at QV there.

What does FP and Yahoo have as ROS projections for Jones (can't look them up from my office laptop)?

Ha, yeah, I knew you were jabbing at him.

Yahoo - 75 IP, 83 K, 4 W, 5 QS, 3.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
F Pros - 83 IP, 82 K, 4 W, 7 QS, 4.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

FWIW, he has a 3.54 xERA / 3.76 FIP / 3.35 xFIP. He's definitely been trending in the wrong direction. He only has one start giving up more than 3 ER but his K:BB rate has pulled back significantly... JMO but he would probably benefit from being skipped once to get an extended recovery.

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:43 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:00 am Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Funny, his season still ranks higher than all but one of your starters

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:47 am

An Old Friend wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:42 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:29 am

An Old Friend wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:11 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:00 am Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Fantasy Pros 2024 projection for Jared Jones:
107 IP, 95 Strikeouts, 6 Wins, 7 Quality Starts, 4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Jones already has 74 IP, 79 Strikeouts, 4 Wins, 8 Quality Starts and has a 3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Would you view his preseason projection as a sound one? There is a common theme, here - they miss badly on early career players.

I'm just taking at poke at QV there.

What does FP and Yahoo have as ROS projections for Jones (can't look them up from my office laptop)?

Ha, yeah, I knew you were jabbing at him.

Yahoo - 75 IP, 83 K, 4 W, 5 QS, 3.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
F Pros - 83 IP, 82 K, 4 W, 7 QS, 4.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

FWIW, he has a 3.54 xERA / 3.76 FIP / 3.35 xFIP. He's definitely been trending in the wrong direction. He only has one start giving up more than 3 ER but his K:BB rate has pulled back significantly... JMO but he would probably benefit from being skipped once to get an extended recovery.

You could argue about the IP, I suppose, but referring in particular to his last six starts, their updated ROS predictions don't seem out of line.

I don't think their updated ROS number are necessarily missing badly on ALL early career players.

An Old Friend wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:49 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:47 am

An Old Friend wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:42 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:29 am

An Old Friend wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:11 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:00 am Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Fantasy Pros 2024 projection for Jared Jones:
107 IP, 95 Strikeouts, 6 Wins, 7 Quality Starts, 4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Jones already has 74 IP, 79 Strikeouts, 4 Wins, 8 Quality Starts and has a 3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Would you view his preseason projection as a sound one? There is a common theme, here - they miss badly on early career players.

I'm just taking at poke at QV there.

What does FP and Yahoo have as ROS projections for Jones (can't look them up from my office laptop)?

Ha, yeah, I knew you were jabbing at him.

Yahoo - 75 IP, 83 K, 4 W, 5 QS, 3.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
F Pros - 83 IP, 82 K, 4 W, 7 QS, 4.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

FWIW, he has a 3.54 xERA / 3.76 FIP / 3.35 xFIP. He's definitely been trending in the wrong direction. He only has one start giving up more than 3 ER but his K:BB rate has pulled back significantly... JMO but he would probably benefit from being skipped once to get an extended recovery.

You could argue about the IP, I suppose, but referring in particular to his last six starts, their updated ROS predictions don't seem out of line.

I don't think their updated ROS number are necessarily missing badly on ALL early career players.

To be fair, we have no idea if rest of season projections will be spot on or miss badly. And to track it, you'd have to capture their projections at a point in time and then look back once the season has concluded.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:48 am

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:43 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Jun 2024 08:00 am Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Funny, his season still ranks higher than all but one of your starters

But I have Matt Waldron now who has been much better than Jones for the last month.