CT Fantasy Baseball - Interested?

[mattmitchl44]

Can you veto a trade and then withdraw your veto later is an explanation is given?

Since we haven’t heard from either party - what might you regard a sufficient ‘explanation’?

I think it would be BL explaining whether they are aware of the regression predictions and if they think the players they are getting are going to keep producing at current levels nonetheless.

Barking Lion is lagging in 3 pitching categories - Wins, Strikeouts, and Quality Starts. He's also pacing to finish about 100 innings under the innings cap. Crochet has obviously been outstanding and close to Wheeler's equal. I get certainty in Wheeler and offload some pitching surplus and he gets an ace with another strong performing starter in Parker. Parker has made 10 starts and hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs in any of them. Both Crochet and Parker have far exceeded Fantasy Pros preseason projections.

Josh Smith's preseason projection / prediction was this: .231 AVG, .684 OPS, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 17 Runs, 2 SB
Josh Smith actual statistics through 63 games are these: .287 AVG, .810 OPS, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 32 Runs, 4 SB

Why would you lean so far into Fantasy Pros rest of season projections when they've whiffed so badly on these players?

To be fair, it is not just FP that is predicting serious regression, here are Yahoo's predictions:

Wheeler - Ranking #4 - 8.4 wins, 12.3 QS, 128 K, 2.88 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 116 IP
Sewald - Ranking #125 - 3 wins, 18 saves, 44.4 K, 2.98 ERA 1.00 WHIP in 34.4 IP

Crochet - Ranking #49 - 6.2 wins, 6.5 QS, 119 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 94.4 IP
Parker - Ranking #523 - 2.8 wins, 3.8 QS, 43.5 K, 4.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP in 48.8 IP
Smith - Ranking #1052 - 22.8 runs, 4.1 HR, 13.8 RBI, 2.4 SB, .224 BA, .686 OPS

That said, given how Parker and Smith have performed so far, I think I can suspend my disbelief just enough to convince myself to not veto this one.

[Boooyah]

Just checking in, is everyone still active in this league?

In regards to the trade, AOF is about to tell y’all how you don’t understand the trade.

[Quincy Varnish]

Just checking in, is everyone still active in this league?

In regards to the trade, AOF is about to tell y’all how you don’t understand the trade.

We have only one that appears to be entirely inactive.

Several seem to be a bit… passive.

[mattmitchl44]

Can you veto a trade and then withdraw your veto later is an explanation is given?

Since we haven’t heard from either party - what might you regard a sufficient ‘explanation’?

I think it would be BL explaining whether they are aware of the regression predictions and if they think the players they are getting are going to keep producing at current levels nonetheless.

Barking Lion is lagging in 3 pitching categories - Wins, Strikeouts, and Quality Starts. He's also pacing to finish about 100 innings under the innings cap. Crochet has obviously been outstanding and close to Wheeler's equal. I get certainty in Wheeler and offload some pitching surplus and he gets an ace with another strong performing starter in Parker. Parker has made 10 starts and hasn't given up more than 3 earned runs in any of them. Both Crochet and Parker have far exceeded Fantasy Pros preseason projections.

Josh Smith's preseason projection / prediction was this: .231 AVG, .684 OPS, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 17 Runs, 2 SB
Josh Smith actual statistics through 63 games are these: .287 AVG, .810 OPS, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 32 Runs, 4 SB

Why would you lean so far into Fantasy Pros rest of season projections when they've whiffed so badly on these players?

To be fair, it is not just FP that is predicting serious regression, here are Yahoo's predictions:

Wheeler - Ranking #4 - 8.4 wins, 12.3 QS, 128 K, 2.88 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 116 IP
Sewald - Ranking #125 - 3 wins, 18 saves, 44.4 K, 2.98 ERA 1.00 WHIP in 34.4 IP

Crochet - Ranking #49 - 6.2 wins, 6.5 QS, 119 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 94.4 IP
Parker - Ranking #523 - 2.8 wins, 3.8 QS, 43.5 K, 4.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP in 48.8 IP
Smith - Ranking #1052 - 22.8 runs, 4.1 HR, 13.8 RBI, 2.4 SB, .224 BA, .686 OPS

That said, given how Parker and Smith have performed so far, I think I can suspend my disbelief just enough to convince myself to not veto this one.

BTW - just doing the math on the pitchers:

Wheeler/Sewald - 150.4 IP, 11.4 wins, 12.3 QS, 18 saves, 172.4 K, 2.90 ERA, 0.96 WHIP
Crochet/Parker - 143.2 IP, 9.0 wins, 10.3 QS, 0 saves, 162.5 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

[Quincy Varnish]

BTW - just doing the math on the pitchers:

Wheeler/Sewald - 150.4 IP, 11.4 wins, 12.3 QS, 18 saves, 172.4 K, 2.90 ERA, 0.96 WHIP
Crochet/Parker - 143.2 IP, 9.0 wins, 10.3 QS, 0 saves, 162.5 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

The side-by-side is a bit misleading when it’s 2 starting pitchers compared to 1 SP/1 RP. AOF would be getting 12 QS from one starter, more than both of the pitchers he’s sending combined… the same imbalance with the Ws, and he’s adding 18 saves.

I’ll also add that the projections for Parker are bad, if the assumption is that he stays healthy and in the Nats rotation. He should have about 20 more starts. I suppose they’re projecting he’s eaten by a bear sometime in August, if he’s only to throw 48-49 more innings.

[An Old Friend]

BTW - just doing the math on the pitchers:

Wheeler/Sewald - 150.4 IP, 11.4 wins, 12.3 QS, 18 saves, 172.4 K, 2.90 ERA, 0.96 WHIP
Crochet/Parker - 143.2 IP, 9.0 wins, 10.3 QS, 0 saves, 162.5 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

The side-by-side is a bit misleading when it’s 2 starting pitchers compared to 1 SP/1 RP. AOF would be getting 12 QS from one starter, more than both of the pitchers he’s sending combined… the same imbalance with the Ws, and he’s adding 18 saves.

I’ll also add that the projections for Parker are bad, if the assumption is that he stays healthy and in the Nats rotation. He should have about 20 more starts. I suppose they’re projecting he’s eaten by a bear sometime in August, if he’s only to throw 48-49 more innings.

Right. These projection systems don't work well for young players with little track record. He has 4 wins and 4 quality starts in 10 starts so far, but is going to only win 3 with 4 quality starts over his next 12-15... just because?

Crochet has 8 quality starts, has given up 7 earned runs in his last 8 starts combined, but only has 6 quality starts left in him according Matt. OK.

Parker made 26 starts in 2023 with 124 IP so Matt is suggesting they're going to markedly scale back the workload of their 6'4" 240 pound young lefty... considering he's on about a 4 bWAR pace (1.5 bWAR through 10 starts), that's unlikely unless, as you say, he has an unfortunate bear encounter.

[mattmitchl44]

Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

[An Old Friend]

Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Fantasy Pros 2024 projection for Jared Jones:
107 IP, 95 Strikeouts, 6 Wins, 7 Quality Starts, 4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Jones already has 74 IP, 79 Strikeouts, 4 Wins, 8 Quality Starts and has a 3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Would you view his preseason projection as a sound one? There is a common theme, here - they miss badly on early career players.

[mattmitchl44]

Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Fantasy Pros 2024 projection for Jared Jones:
107 IP, 95 Strikeouts, 6 Wins, 7 Quality Starts, 4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Jones already has 74 IP, 79 Strikeouts, 4 Wins, 8 Quality Starts and has a 3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Would you view his preseason projection as a sound one? There is a common theme, here - they miss badly on early career players.

I'm just taking a poke at QV there.

What does FP and Yahoo have as ROS projections for Jones (can't look them up from my office laptop)?

[An Old Friend]

Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Fantasy Pros 2024 projection for Jared Jones:
107 IP, 95 Strikeouts, 6 Wins, 7 Quality Starts, 4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Jones already has 74 IP, 79 Strikeouts, 4 Wins, 8 Quality Starts and has a 3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Would you view his preseason projection as a sound one? There is a common theme, here - they miss badly on early career players.

I'm just taking at poke at QV there.

What does FP and Yahoo have as ROS projections for Jones (can't look them up from my office laptop)?

Ha, yeah, I knew you were jabbing at him.

Yahoo - 75 IP, 83 K, 4 W, 5 QS, 3.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
F Pros - 83 IP, 82 K, 4 W, 7 QS, 4.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

FWIW, he has a 3.54 xERA / 3.76 FIP / 3.35 xFIP. He's definitely been trending in the wrong direction. He only has one start giving up more than 3 ER but his K:BB rate has pulled back significantly... JMO but he would probably benefit from being skipped once to get an extended recovery.

[Quincy Varnish]

Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Funny, his season still ranks higher than all but one of your starters

[mattmitchl44]

Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Fantasy Pros 2024 projection for Jared Jones:
107 IP, 95 Strikeouts, 6 Wins, 7 Quality Starts, 4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Jones already has 74 IP, 79 Strikeouts, 4 Wins, 8 Quality Starts and has a 3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Would you view his preseason projection as a sound one? There is a common theme, here - they miss badly on early career players.

I'm just taking at poke at QV there.

What does FP and Yahoo have as ROS projections for Jones (can't look them up from my office laptop)?

Ha, yeah, I knew you were jabbing at him.

Yahoo - 75 IP, 83 K, 4 W, 5 QS, 3.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
F Pros - 83 IP, 82 K, 4 W, 7 QS, 4.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

FWIW, he has a 3.54 xERA / 3.76 FIP / 3.35 xFIP. He's definitely been trending in the wrong direction. He only has one start giving up more than 3 ER but his K:BB rate has pulled back significantly... JMO but he would probably benefit from being skipped once to get an extended recovery.

You could argue about the IP, I suppose, but referring in particular to his last six starts, their updated ROS predictions don't seem out of line.

I don't think their updated ROS numbers are necessarily missing badly on ALL early career players.

[mattmitchl44]

Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Funny, his season still ranks higher than all but one of your starters

But I have Matt Waldron now who has been much better than Jones for the last month.

[An Old Friend]

Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Fantasy Pros 2024 projection for Jared Jones:
107 IP, 95 Strikeouts, 6 Wins, 7 Quality Starts, 4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Jones already has 74 IP, 79 Strikeouts, 4 Wins, 8 Quality Starts and has a 3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Would you view his preseason projection as a sound one? There is a common theme, here - they miss badly on early career players.

I'm just taking at poke at QV there.

What does FP and Yahoo have as ROS projections for Jones (can't look them up from my office laptop)?

Ha, yeah, I knew you were jabbing at him.

Yahoo - 75 IP, 83 K, 4 W, 5 QS, 3.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
F Pros - 83 IP, 82 K, 4 W, 7 QS, 4.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

FWIW, he has a 3.54 xERA / 3.76 FIP / 3.35 xFIP. He's definitely been trending in the wrong direction. He only has one start giving up more than 3 ER but his K:BB rate has pulled back significantly... JMO but he would probably benefit from being skipped once to get an extended recovery.

You could argue about the IP, I suppose, but referring in particular to his last six starts, their updated ROS predictions don't seem out of line.

I don't think their updated ROS number are necessarily missing badly on ALL early career players.

To be fair, we have no idea if rest of season projections will be spot on or miss badly. And to track it, you'd have to capture their projections at a point in time and then look back once the season has concluded.

[mattmitchl44]

Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Fantasy Pros 2024 projection for Jared Jones:
107 IP, 95 Strikeouts, 6 Wins, 7 Quality Starts, 4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP

Jones already has 74 IP, 79 Strikeouts, 4 Wins, 8 Quality Starts and has a 3.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Would you view his preseason projection as a sound one? There is a common theme, here - they miss badly on early career players.

I'm just taking at poke at QV there.

What does FP and Yahoo have as ROS projections for Jones (can't look them up from my office laptop)?

Ha, yeah, I knew you were jabbing at him.

Yahoo - 75 IP, 83 K, 4 W, 5 QS, 3.57 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
F Pros - 83 IP, 82 K, 4 W, 7 QS, 4.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

FWIW, he has a 3.54 xERA / 3.76 FIP / 3.35 xFIP. He's definitely been trending in the wrong direction. He only has one start giving up more than 3 ER but his K:BB rate has pulled back significantly... JMO but he would probably benefit from being skipped once to get an extended recovery.

You could argue about the IP, I suppose, but referring in particular to his last six starts, their updated ROS predictions don't seem out of line.

I don't think their updated ROS number are necessarily missing badly on ALL early career players.

To be fair, we have no idea if rest of season projections will be spot on or miss badly. And to track it, you'd have to capture their projections at a point in time and then look back once the season has concluded.

True - it is just interesting that the same models are giving very different takes when you compare "to date" vs. "ROS" for two young SPs (Jones and Parker).

Whatever the models are doing, they aren't making their projections randomly.

[Quincy Varnish]

Parker could go Jared Jones:

First seven starts - 41.0 IP, 52 K, 2.63 ERA, 0.78 WHIP
Last six starts - 33.3 IP, 27 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Funny, his season still ranks higher than all but one of your starters

But I have Matt Waldron now who has been much better than Jones for the last month.

You should trade him for Zack Wheeler.