AZ_Cardsfan wrote: ↑29 Dec 2025 15:04 pm
Thing is the lineup in 2026 is irrelevant. That is the year they try many young players to see who is real and who isn't. And find out where there is a hole that can not be filled from within.
holes, plural
Probably. Right now I'd feel:
SS - filled Winn
1B - filled between Burleson or Herrera
2B - probably filled Weatherholdt
3B - hmmmm
Catcher - filled. We have a LOT of might bes and one should pan out
OF - ouch. I mean there is a lot of potential. And has been for several years. Yet not one of them would I write in as owning a job. That needs to see some shake out in 2026. Who can stay healthy. Who can hit. Who can hit PRODUCTIVELY. We can't have a weak OF like the last few years.
Good news is signing average level LF/RF guys who can hit "enough" isn't a massive mountain when it's time to fill holes.
trouble is, none of these guys are actual Plus bats. See their career WARs. We need to not only fill some holes, but develop or acquire multiple actual star performers. We still get excited about prospects who project to become "serviceable starters". But Winn is not the Next Bobby Witt. And Baez is Not the next Judge or even the next Edmonds or Beltran. We can keep those guys, but we need the next level to get anywhere. And no one here is good enough to block someone on that next level - so if they become available - there's room.
I'll reserve judgement on JJW until he shows what he can do, but still he's only one guy, and almost certainly not a #4 type.
OK I get where you are coming from. I want to win a World Series. And having an elite bat or two really helps. Also hard to scout and get and expensive to buy. Maybe they will need to sign a high end bat at some point and pay the price. Maybe one of the kids does emerge. Do not know and it isn't easy to get them.
It is also possible to win with a team where every one hits and fields well with a deep roster and higher end pitching staff. Easier to construct too. Then if you get lucky and one of them DOES become an elite bat gravy on top.
BTW finding that elite hitter is one of the reasons I am so gung ho on dealing Donovan to get at least one prospect who MIGHT become that.
But in the meantime the work in the trenches is to add as many high end prospects of all kinds to the roster and hope to strike gold. The only alternative is to have gobs of money and buy lots of elite free agents
Outside of Pujols and yadi, that majority of our stars have come via a trade. McGwire, Renteria, Edmonds, Holliday, Rolen. Wainwright was the only prospect we trade for in memory that has had a Hall of Fame caliber career.
I’m OK with trades. Just need to make sure we’re getting the right return. Something highly likely of hitting or already proven instead of low odds lottery picks and salary relief. I kind of think the type of guys be traded for Helsley would be worth more packaged with somebody for a player We really need instead of hoarding long shots and finding we don’t have enough playing time at AAA or AA.
1) you’re totally right: the prospects we’ve acquired can be flipped.
2) I think you and other CTers are scarred by recent Mo trade returns (Libby, Saggese, etc.).
Teams with good scouting don’t have as many longshot…
EC, most of your strategy involves flipping players. So a question…..If this team is rebuilding and needs Bodies(prospects)why would flipping them be the outcome if they were any good…..and if they’re not very good why would another team want them? You seem to have HOLES in your strategy.
1. Beginning of strategy is, partly, flipping players for prospects
2. When accumulating prospects, sometimes you find you have a surplus at x position. See the Red Sox trading for Crochet…
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑28 Dec 2025 13:17 pm
the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.
One carp
D. May/$12,000,000
+
$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option
ok right, but still we could easily be the lowest "active payroll" going into 2026 even IF we sign someone else.
No doubt, the payroll as it stands today is around $106M and heading lower once NADO, Donny, JoJo and ???? are dealt.
but what is the payroll of the 26 man? That's what matters to the product on the field and the recurring cost to the org.
Anyone who has been traded is a sunk cost now.
$106M - $24M to Boston for Gray & WillyC = $82M actual on-the-roster player payroll which includes estimates for the ARBs.
So it could be even lower than that if we non-tender or trade any of the ARB players? Or if Noot spends the whole year on the DL and doesn't reach the 26 man.
Will be lower when they deal away Donny (-$5.4M), possibly JoJo (-$4.4M) and seems like mid season Noot (some % of -$5.7M).
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑28 Dec 2025 13:17 pm
the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.
One carp
D. May/$12,000,000
+
$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option
ok right, but still we could easily be the lowest "active payroll" going into 2026 even IF we sign someone else.
No doubt, the payroll as it stands today is around $106M and heading lower once NADO, Donny, JoJo and ???? are dealt.
but what is the payroll of the 26 man? That's what matters to the product on the field and the recurring cost to the org.
Anyone who has been traded is a sunk cost now.
$106M - $24M to Boston for Gray & WillyC = $82M actual on-the-roster player payroll which includes estimates for the ARBs.
Just dont refer to this as a salary dump…..BDW accountants here get very upset at that
It’s not a salary Dump
It’s not a salary Dump
It just so happens that ALL the players we signed in the last couple years and thought enough to bring them in……..we don’t really want now and won’t really get much in return for them….you know because they’re old, not that great, and make a lot of money….but the money we save by trading them can in NO WAY BE USED TO BRING IN BETTER PLAYERS……we must develop better players……better players from the outside using 90-100mil wouldn’t be fair to all the young Allstars we have in the system…..and by ‘28,29,’30 perhaps some might be at Busch….no guarantees. The Guarantee is that 90-100 mil will be in BDW pocket. And for all those that subscribe to BDW sob story about local TV money…..keep in mind in ‘25 he ONLY was down 17mil from the original contract. So you do the math. Payroll needs to be reduced 100mil because of 17mil Local TV shortfall
Yep
I've been saying for some time now this re-build was just a ruse by BDWJr to slash payroll prior to the CBA expiring in 2026.
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑28 Dec 2025 13:17 pm
the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.
One carp
D. May/$12,000,000
+
$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option
ok right, but still we could easily be the lowest "active payroll" going into 2026 even IF we sign someone else.
No doubt, the payroll as it stands today is around $106M and heading lower once NADO, Donny, JoJo and ???? are dealt.
but what is the payroll of the 26 man? That's what matters to the product on the field and the recurring cost to the org.
Anyone who has been traded is a sunk cost now.
$106M - $24M to Boston for Gray & WillyC = $82M actual on-the-roster player payroll which includes estimates for the ARBs.
So it could be even lower than that if we non-tender or trade any of the ARB players? Or if Noot spends the whole year on the DL and doesn't reach the 26 man.
Will be lower when they deal away Donny (-$5.4M), possibly JoJo (-$4.4M) and seems like mid season Noot (some % of -$5.7M).
12m ish in savings. What will 12m get me that Donovan and Joho couldn’t.
I understand a rebuild- the giving and getting. I don’t understand a give away. That’s not part of the rebuild template.
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑28 Dec 2025 13:17 pm
the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.
One carp
D. May/$12,000,000
+
$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option
ok right, but still we could easily be the lowest "active payroll" going into 2026 even IF we sign someone else.
No doubt, the payroll as it stands today is around $106M and heading lower once NADO, Donny, JoJo and ???? are dealt.
but what is the payroll of the 26 man? That's what matters to the product on the field and the recurring cost to the org.
Anyone who has been traded is a sunk cost now.
$106M - $24M to Boston for Gray & WillyC = $82M actual on-the-roster player payroll which includes estimates for the ARBs.
So it could be even lower than that if we non-tender or trade any of the ARB players? Or if Noot spends the whole year on the DL and doesn't reach the 26 man.
Will be lower when they deal away Donny (-$5.4M), possibly JoJo (-$4.4M) and seems like mid season Noot (some % of -$5.7M).
12m ish in savings. What will 12m get me that Donovan and Joho couldn’t.
I understand a rebuild- the giving and getting. I don’t understand a give away. That’s not part of the rebuild template.
Donny will bring back a top prospect, one who if he pays off will have six years of control.
JoJo alone won't bring back a top prospect.
I've said for some time the best option is to package Donny + JoJo for a teams Top 2-3 prospect (maybe too high but shoot for the moon).
Either way, Donny will NOT be a "giveaway" BDog, he'll bring back a solid return or C. Bloom has said he won't deal him.
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑28 Dec 2025 13:17 pm
the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.
One carp
D. May/$12,000,000
+
$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option
ok right, but still we could easily be the lowest "active payroll" going into 2026 even IF we sign someone else.
No doubt, the payroll as it stands today is around $106M and heading lower once NADO, Donny, JoJo and ???? are dealt.
but what is the payroll of the 26 man? That's what matters to the product on the field and the recurring cost to the org.
Anyone who has been traded is a sunk cost now.
$106M - $24M to Boston for Gray & WillyC = $82M actual on-the-roster player payroll which includes estimates for the ARBs.
So it could be even lower than that if we non-tender or trade any of the ARB players? Or if Noot spends the whole year on the DL and doesn't reach the 26 man.
Will be lower when they deal away Donny (-$5.4M), possibly JoJo (-$4.4M) and seems like mid season Noot (some % of -$5.7M).
12m ish in savings. What will 12m get me that Donovan and Joho couldn’t.
I understand a rebuild- the giving and getting. I don’t understand a give away. That’s not part of the rebuild template.
Donny will bring back a top prospect, one who if he pays off will have six years of control.
JoJo alone won't bring back a top prospect.
I've said for some time the best option is to package Donny + JoJo for a teams Top 2-3 prospect (maybe too high but shoot for the moon).
Either way, Donny will NOT be a "giveaway" BDog, he'll bring back a solid return or C. Bloom has said he won't deal him.
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑28 Dec 2025 13:17 pm
the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.
One carp
D. May/$12,000,000
+
$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option
ok right, but still we could easily be the lowest "active payroll" going into 2026 even IF we sign someone else.
No doubt, the payroll as it stands today is around $106M and heading lower once NADO, Donny, JoJo and ???? are dealt.
but what is the payroll of the 26 man? That's what matters to the product on the field and the recurring cost to the org.
Anyone who has been traded is a sunk cost now.
$106M - $24M to Boston for Gray & WillyC = $82M actual on-the-roster player payroll which includes estimates for the ARBs.
So it could be even lower than that if we non-tender or trade any of the ARB players? Or if Noot spends the whole year on the DL and doesn't reach the 26 man.
Will be lower when they deal away Donny (-$5.4M), possibly JoJo (-$4.4M) and seems like mid season Noot (some % of -$5.7M).
12m ish in savings. What will 12m get me that Donovan and Joho couldn’t.
I understand a rebuild- the giving and getting. I don’t understand a give away. That’s not part of the rebuild template.
Donny will bring back a top prospect, one who if he pays off will have six years of control.
JoJo alone won't bring back a top prospect.
I've said for some time the best option is to package Donny + JoJo for a teams Top 2-3 prospect (maybe too high but shoot for the moon).
Either way, Donny will NOT be a "giveaway" BDog, he'll bring back a solid return or C. Bloom has said he won't deal him.
Maybe why he's still here. And maybe we manufactured the red hot market rumors to juice the market and create a bidding war, and it still didn't get us what Bloom wanted.
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑28 Dec 2025 13:17 pm
the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.
One carp
D. May/$12,000,000
+
$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option
ok right, but still we could easily be the lowest "active payroll" going into 2026 even IF we sign someone else.
No doubt, the payroll as it stands today is around $106M and heading lower once NADO, Donny, JoJo and ???? are dealt.
but what is the payroll of the 26 man? That's what matters to the product on the field and the recurring cost to the org.
Anyone who has been traded is a sunk cost now.
$106M - $24M to Boston for Gray & WillyC = $82M actual on-the-roster player payroll which includes estimates for the ARBs.
So it could be even lower than that if we non-tender or trade any of the ARB players? Or if Noot spends the whole year on the DL and doesn't reach the 26 man.
Will be lower when they deal away Donny (-$5.4M), possibly JoJo (-$4.4M) and seems like mid season Noot (some % of -$5.7M).
12m ish in savings. What will 12m get me that Donovan and Joho couldn’t.
I understand a rebuild- the giving and getting. I don’t understand a give away. That’s not part of the rebuild template.
Donny will bring back a top prospect, one who if he pays off will have six years of control.
JoJo alone won't bring back a top prospect.
I've said for some time the best option is to package Donny + JoJo for a teams Top 2-3 prospect (maybe too high but shoot for the moon).
Either way, Donny will NOT be a "giveaway" BDog, he'll bring back a solid return or C. Bloom has said he won't deal him.
Thank you. Good no giveaways.
No chance he's a giveaway, that would be NADO.
Donny is a high demand player and Bloom's on record saying if he doesn't get what he's looking for, then he won't trade him!
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑28 Dec 2025 13:17 pm
the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.
One carp
D. May/$12,000,000
+
$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option
ok right, but still we could easily be the lowest "active payroll" going into 2026 even IF we sign someone else.
No doubt, the payroll as it stands today is around $106M and heading lower once NADO, Donny, JoJo and ???? are dealt.
but what is the payroll of the 26 man? That's what matters to the product on the field and the recurring cost to the org.
Anyone who has been traded is a sunk cost now.
$106M - $24M to Boston for Gray & WillyC = $82M actual on-the-roster player payroll which includes estimates for the ARBs.
So it could be even lower than that if we non-tender or trade any of the ARB players? Or if Noot spends the whole year on the DL and doesn't reach the 26 man.
Will be lower when they deal away Donny (-$5.4M), possibly JoJo (-$4.4M) and seems like mid season Noot (some % of -$5.7M).
12m ish in savings. What will 12m get me that Donovan and Joho couldn’t.
I understand a rebuild- the giving and getting. I don’t understand a give away. That’s not part of the rebuild template.
Donny will bring back a top prospect, one who if he pays off will have six years of control.
JoJo alone won't bring back a top prospect.
I've said for some time the best option is to package Donny + JoJo for a teams Top 2-3 prospect (maybe too high but shoot for the moon).
Either way, Donny will NOT be a "giveaway" BDog, he'll bring back a solid return or C. Bloom has said he won't deal him.
Maybe why he's still here. And maybe we manufactured the red hot market rumors to juice the market and create a bidding war, and it still didn't get us what Bloom wanted.
Absolutely
Bloom has already shown (Gray & WillyC) if he likes the offer, then he's not shy about pulling the trigger on a deal.
I like that he's holding out for what he's seeking, let the potential acquirers squirm until they can't take it any more (screaming fan bases!) and give him what he wants!
If they don't, then go into the season and offer him again mid season.
Carp4Cy wrote: ↑28 Dec 2025 13:17 pm
the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.
One carp
D. May/$12,000,000
+
$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option
ok right, but still we could easily be the lowest "active payroll" going into 2026 even IF we sign someone else.
No doubt, the payroll as it stands today is around $106M and heading lower once NADO, Donny, JoJo and ???? are dealt.
but what is the payroll of the 26 man? That's what matters to the product on the field and the recurring cost to the org.
Anyone who has been traded is a sunk cost now.
$106M - $24M to Boston for Gray & WillyC = $82M actual on-the-roster player payroll which includes estimates for the ARBs.
So it could be even lower than that if we non-tender or trade any of the ARB players? Or if Noot spends the whole year on the DL and doesn't reach the 26 man.
Will be lower when they deal away Donny (-$5.4M), possibly JoJo (-$4.4M) and seems like mid season Noot (some % of -$5.7M).
12m ish in savings. What will 12m get me that Donovan and Joho couldn’t.
I understand a rebuild- the giving and getting. I don’t understand a give away. That’s not part of the rebuild template.
Donny will bring back a top prospect, one who if he pays off will have six years of control.
JoJo alone won't bring back a top prospect.
I've said for some time the best option is to package Donny + JoJo for a teams Top 2-3 prospect (maybe too high but shoot for the moon).
Either way, Donny will NOT be a "giveaway" BDog, he'll bring back a solid return or C. Bloom has said he won't deal him.
Maybe why he's still here. And maybe we manufactured the red hot market rumors to juice the market and create a bidding war, and it still didn't get us what Bloom wanted.
Absolutely
Bloom has already shown (Gray & WillyC) if he likes the offer, then he's not shy about pulling the trigger on a deal.
I like that he's holding out for what he's seeking, let the potential acquirers squirm until they can't take it any more (screaming fan bases!) and give him what he wants!
If they don't, then go into the season and offer him again mid season.
I've been saying for some time now this re-build was just a ruse by BDWJr to slash payroll prior to the CBA expiring in 2026.
If the team was solid I don't think he would do the rebuild like they are. But it is awfully convenient that 2025 is when the heavy lifting of reducing payroll happens.
IMO they might have done less slashing if the CBA wasn't coming due but here we are. Not sure it matters since the CBA is gonna screw things up and if they do the rebuild right it will also be a good year to add free agents late if there is a holdout/stoppage.
