Noah Cameron is rumored for Donovan

[Cardinals4Life]

FG's last write up on Cameron:

Cameron was drafted in the seventh round of the 2021 draft out of Central Arkansas not long after he had a Tommy John surgery. He had an encouraging 2023, his first full season, despite a 5.28 ERA, as he posted strong peripherals across 107.1 innings (28.3% K%, 7.5% BB%) and reached Double-A. His 2024 and early-2025 performance have been practically identical. Cameron worked 128.2 innings in 2024, and during the second half of the season was stretched out to six or seven innings per outing. This year, he made seven good Triple-A starts and was promoted to the bigs. His delivery is effortless and repeatable, and Cameron commands all four of his pitches, giving him an incredibly high floor as a prospect because he has basically no relief risk.

His best pitch is a changeup in the 80-84 mph range. It’s uncommon for pitchers with Cameron’s nearly perfect vertical arm slot to be able to turn over a changeup from this position, let alone a plus one, but even as he has climbed into the upper levels of the minors, this pitch has been generating plus miss. It succeeds more because of Cameron’s ability to locate it than its pure movement, and it’s also aided by how long he hides the baseball, and how loose and free his arm action is. The vertical nature of Cameron’s arm stroke creates backspinning ride on his fastball. It isn’t a speedy offering — it sits about 92 mph and will peak around 96 — but, again, deception and command season its effectiveness. The combination of his below-average velo and a top-of-the-zone approach to fastball location has made Cameron homer-prone for stretches in the minors, especially in 2023, when he allowed 19 bombs in 107.1 innings, and again so far this year. Seemingly in response to this, he’s upped his cutter usage in 2025, more as a way to stay off barrels than to miss bats.

Cameron also has an 80-84 mph 12-to-6 curveball, the shape of which mirrors that of his fastball. He will manipulate its direction somewhat against lefties to give it a little more of a slider look. The depth of his curveball and the quality of his changeup gives Cameron two ways to tilt with righties and generate whiffs. Against lefties, he becomes heavily reliant on his fastball. This guy is a very stable rotation piece with two plus attributes and two average ones. Though he lacks star-level stuff, Cameron is a stable, polished no. 4 starter prospect.

2.99 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in across 140 innings in his first year might suggest he could exceed the #4 starter expectation.

He had a BABIP of .241, which was almost .050 below league average. Probably not sustainable given that, of the 663 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 ML innings since 1969, that would tie him for 2nd best in BABIP.

He also had 84.0% of his runners left on base, vs. a ML average of just 72.3%. And that 84.0% would be the best (by a wide margin since 2nd is Mariano Rivera at 80.4%) of those 663 pitchers since 1969.

So, yeah, a lot of fluky good "luck" in his results last year.

#Regressiontothemean

Take your batted ball c r a p and go home. When pitchers make quality pitches, their numbers go down. You can call it luck. I'll call it good pitching.

[Cardinals4Life]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

[Cardinals4Life]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

I think if Cameron is moved it is for a young controllable outfielder from a contender. I don’t like just getting one pitcher as they are so injury prone and could result in nothing. Also he’s not going to get the Cards for at least three years to the playoffs so those controllable years are going to be wasted.

My gosh, is any player young enough?? Is that you, Mattmitch?? All some of you do is worry about "controllable" pieces. How about we get some quality players to help us win!?! (Sorry I'm kind of in a bad mood because of the Chiefs game I am watching!)

[CorneliusWolfe]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

I think if Cameron is moved it is for a young controllable outfielder from a contender. I don’t like just getting one pitcher as they are so injury prone and could result in nothing. Also he’s not going to get the Cards for at least three years to the playoffs so those controllable years are going to be wasted.

He won’t get them to the playoffs by himself ever. It would take a commitment to winning that would entail pursuing all avenues available and seizing every opportunity to improve. Where there’s a will (and some cash) there’s a way.

I do agree with your assessment that KC would seemingly rather move him for a controllable OFer. Which likely makes them our competition instead of our trade partner. I said earlier in this thread I don’t see why it would even make sense for them in the first place, regardless of BTV.

[ICCFIM2]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

[Hoosier59]

If the Cardinals can obtain Cameron, they have to do it, unless of course the Royals demand one of the Cardinals’ untouchables.
Even if he becomes a free agent before the Cardinals are ready to compete, they can always trade him, and receive a bundle for him before that happens .

[CorneliusWolfe]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

I think if Cameron is moved it is for a young controllable outfielder from a contender. I don’t like just getting one pitcher as they are so injury prone and could result in nothing. Also he’s not going to get the Cards for at least three years to the playoffs so those controllable years are going to be wasted.

My gosh, is any player young enough?? Is that you, Mattmitch?? All some of you do is worry about "controllable" pieces. How about we get some quality players to help us win!?! (Sorry I'm kind of in a bad mood because of the Chiefs game I am watching!)

Never young enough or cheap enough. I think some of these guys are scouting little league games and dreaming of who we could give up for them.

[scoutyjones2]

Only minor concern I have is that like lefty hitters we are loaded with lefty pitchers. Cameron is a lefty, Doyle will hopefully be up soon then add Libby and our other top prospect pitchers and we don’t seem to have much from the right side. Maybe that’s a good thing?

Could be. They could also trade the excess for positions of need

I forgot that Mo is gone and we now hopefully will be able to ascertain who to trade and who to
Keep.

Hallelujah

That putz would sit around with his thumb up his (donkey) all winter. Laziest man in baseball.

Not as lazy as your posts

[Quincy Varnish]

He had a BABIP of .241, which was almost .050 below league average. Probably not sustainable given that, of the 663 pitchers who have thrown at least 1000 ML innings since 1969, that would tie him for 2nd best in BABIP.

He also had 84.0% of his runners left on base, vs. a ML average of just 72.3%. And that 84.0% would be the best (by a wide margin since 2nd is Mariano Rivera at 80.4%) of those 663 pitchers since 1969.

So, yeah, a lot of fluky good "luck" in his results last year.

#Regressiontothemean

Take your batted ball c r a p and go home. When pitchers make quality pitches, their numbers go down. You can call it luck. I'll call it good pitching.

lol… anything you can’t understand is (bleep). You’re determined to remain ignorant, and it’s hilarious.

[mattmitchl44]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Because what is known is that - when it comes to predicting future performance - those peripherals (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, etc.) are almost always much more reliable indicators than what you say, "ends up on the back of baseball cards."

[mattmitchl44]

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Regarding Maddux, although his K/9 looks low today, for the majority of his career his K/9 was actually above ML average. But his ability to avoid walks and HRs was otherworldly.

Unless Cameron moves his peripherals in a positive direction, we know his ERA will eventually converge toward his 4.18 FIP. Only about 15% of pitchers who throw 1000+ innings end up keeping their ERA as much as 0.25 under their FIP. So an ERA of ~4.00 is a reasonable "best case" scenario without changing his peripherals.

I would think people would understand that this advent of "advanced analytics" has been important because it tells you truths that you wouldn't otherwise see based on looking at the same data/results as baseball people have been looking at for 100 years. If they just told you the same thing, teams wouldn't be investing so heavily in understanding them.

[renostl]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

[mattmitchl44]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

[JuanAgosto]

Only minor concern I have is that like lefty hitters we are loaded with lefty pitchers. Cameron is a lefty, Doyle will hopefully be up soon then add Libby and our other top prospect pitchers and we don’t seem to have much from the right side. Maybe that’s a good thing?

Could be. They could also trade the excess for positions of need

I forgot that Mo is gone and we now hopefully will be able to ascertain who to trade and who to
Keep.

Hallelujah

That putz would sit around with his thumb up his (donkey) all winter. Laziest man in baseball.

Not as lazy as your posts

Your response is pretty lazy.

[renostl]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Just some added thoughts.
Pitchers can use this information too and make adjustments to fine tune their offerings.
Currently Cameron is a name in a rumor that as you suggested may or may not be a fit.
He isn't what has been profiled by the Cards so far unless they see a possibility of a few more mph.
He was a ROY finalist not a finished product.

Maddux's better seasons of his ridiculously great career had seasons of BAbip from the .248 to the
.275 range. He suppressed BA as low as .197 SLG .258. This during a time of MLB batting averages were some
20 points higher than today. Done while as you noted not a K guy. What was happening to assist in the
accumulation of numbers is the difficulties to barrel him up, his HH% was probably low, and difficulty
to get multiple hits in the same inning. Maddux became human as his BAbip rose. He was finding more barrels.

I not comparing Noah to Greg. Nowhere near Miles to Cease
The attempt is solely to find cause beyond the luck described by others. Noah was below MLB averages not just in his BAbip of .241
but also HH% 37, OBP .279, and SLG 361, 1.099 WHIP. There is some information that may suggest that he was difficult to square up
or string hits together with fewer bases occupied, along with that luck, and a team strong up the middle.

Again, just an add to your information that I have some agreement with for discussion.

Yeah the point here is not to say that over the long term that Cameron's ERA has to regress to exactly equal his FIP or that his BABIP and LOB% have to regress to exactly ML average.

The point is to recognize that his 2025 deviations were way out in the extreme 5% of the distribution range, even for a sample as small as 130+ innings.

Any team negotiating with KC to take Cameron in a trade is going to de-emphasize his value by taking the position that his extreme deviations were due much more to luck than innate skill.

How much growth he has left, considering he is already 26, is also a relevant question.

I have no idea how the guy trends.

IF he's a #3 type that has some #2 and such games or seasons many
will call it a failed trade or at least say the Cards should have done better.
I'm really not sure the Cards will target him for reasons suggested in the thread.
Also unsure how they value getting a now arm versus seasons down the road
both are needed.

He's a guy in a rumor put out by DG, a solid source.

At 26 though he may be just starting to get it together. Does he have more velo or spin
in him? IDK. In 2025 he was hard to barrel, difficult to hit hard mostly on the back of his
breaking pitches. As such he doesn't get the fast lane with the 100 mph/splitter/slider guys.

[Bomber1]

Sorry this sounds like more of Mo mediocrity safe move. Peripherals of a #3 starter on a bad team and 5 starter on good team.

Peripherals don’t end up on the back of baseball cards. Just results.

You can find peripherals that support or argue against signing anyone. There’s an endless supply. It’s why they have to get lawyers involved to solve arbitration cases.

Why has actual accomplishment taken such a backseat to endless projections? A player can’t accomplish anything anymore without a saber nerd saying it never should’ve happened.

Well said CorneliusWolfe!! I couldn't agree more.

I agree actual results are extremely important. I was given a bit of grief the last few days when I was comparing Mikolas actual production to Dylan Cease actual production and pointing out they were not that far apart. I also pointed out over their careers they may not end up that far apart either.

With respect to Cameron, he had a 2.99 ERA v. f FIP of 4.18

FIP does tend to be a very good predictor of ERA over a pitchers career. Let me give you a couple of examples.

Justin Verlander ERA 3.32 FIP 3.44
Greg Maddux ERA 3.16 FIP 3.26
Max Scherzer ERA 3.22 FIP 3.23

I looked at these a few years ago. In particular Greg Maddux interested me because he is a low strike-out pitcher and FIP tends to favor strike outs a lot. In his case, it did not. I never looked into the exact reasons why. But, these numbers for pitchers that had long time careers are remarkably close.

The issue with Cameron is where his numbers will converge to. Also, the KC farm system is really weak. Even if they throw in 2 more of there top 10 prospects, that return is not huge. Further, Cameron is another lefty. How many of them are we going to have? RH hitters predominate MLB. I think it is problematic to have a rotation that consists of 3-4 LH starters because it tends to provide bad match-ups overall. Its a reasonable deal. I am not certain I am doing cartwheels over it. But, I am not dismissing it either.

Really good post!