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mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 08:26 am

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 08:21 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 08:17 am

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 08:06 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 07:14 am

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 06:51 am None of them won the world series. I would point out that is the standard Bloom used to dump when we were 5 games over .500 at the break. Making the playoffs isn't enough. If we don't have a world series caliber roster we must dump.

I don't think that is true either. It is more nuanced than that. It's a matter of who you dump and for what purpose.

Branch Rickey said, "It is better to trade a player one year too soon rather than one year too late." If you choose to dump players mid-season, it should be players who have value at that time, but are of an age where you expect that there is a higher probability that they will fall off the table soon and you should get what you can for them now. For example, every effort should have been made to trade Arenado and Goldschmidt back mid-season in 2023.

Regarding the for what purpose, if your farm system is already healthy and actively producing a high level of young talent for the ML team, you could be less motivated to dump players mid-season for more prospects. But if your farm system is/has been underperforming, you would lean toward being more liberal in your decision to trade older, expensive players in order to try to get prospect to improve that for future years.

That was the excuse given for dumping a playoff capable roster.

When? Last year?

By the "transactions" page on ESPN, the only player the Cardinals "dumped" last year was Maton - on July 31 when they were 55-55. The Cardinals just, rightly, didn't choose to be a buyer and double down on a pretty bad hand last year.

I thought we trade 3 pitchers for prospects. The excuse for not adding was the team was playoff caliber but not world series caliber.

They did, of course, also trade Helsley. Not sure why that didn't show up on ESPN.

And they did trade Matz for Blaze Jordan. How quickly I forget.

So you are correct.

But those were all right at the end of July when they had fallen off to just .500. The Cardinals had gone 4-9 from the A-S Break to the end of July and were in full reverse at that point.

icon wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 10:07 am I have read every post on this thread so far, and to me, the big question still remains about this reset or whatever you want to call it.

Will BDW Jr. eventually restore payroll to a level that is World Series title competitive? Or is this reset just an excuse to reduce payroll and keep it reduced just like the Pirates model? Or at best like a Brewers, Guardians and Rays model?

Melville wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 11:07 am

icon wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 10:07 am I have read every post on this thread so far, and to me, the big question still remains about this reset or whatever you want to call it.

Will BDW Jr. eventually restore payroll to a level that is World Series title competitive? Or is this reset just an excuse to reduce payroll and keep it reduced just like the Pirates model? Or at best like a Brewers, Guardians and Rays model?

DeWitt has been a fool the past few years in retaining Super Slo Mo and The Marmot.
But he certainly knows how to count revenue - and empty seats.
Therefore, there will be a course correction for 2026, as Bloom has repeatedly and broadly hinted.
Is payroll going to return to 180M in 2026?
No - not with DeWitt planning on supporting a lock out next off-season.
Does that mean Bloom is going to settle for a non-competitive roster next season?
No - he would not have accepted the job without certain assurances.
He is not an idiot.
Bottom line: I have 100% confidence that short term moves will be made to add MLB level pieces who can help the team compete next season, while also improving the organization from a talent development perspective.
Bloom will add MLB level players to the existing active roster - you have my 100% personal guarantee.
Which is the strongest guarantee possible.
The only question is whether or not Bloom is capable of making the correct additions and the necessary subtractions.
Competent leaders can and do accomplish 2 goals simultaneously.
Al that is required is the skill and the will.
We shall soon see if Bloom possesses both traits.

icon wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 10:51 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 10:20 am

icon wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 10:07 am I have read every post on this thread so far, and to me, the big question still remains about this reset or whatever you want to call it.

Will BDW Jr. eventually restore payroll to a level that is World Series title competitive? Or is this reset just an excuse to reduce payroll and keep it reduced just like the Pirates model? Or at best like a Brewers, Guardians and Rays model?

You can consider it to be the question, but there is no answer to it.

You can be completely pessimistic and assume this is some conspiracy where the owners, based on no precedent they have shown to date, are going to reduce payroll and never raise it again.

You can be a little less pessimistic and stick rigidly to "the past is prologue" and believe they will never waiver from "attendance drives payroll." So maybe you have to wait until the young core of players is good enough when combined with only cheap veterans to get back to 86, 87 win seasons in like 2028/2029; then see attendance start to rise; then see payroll rise to where they add better veteran players in 2030/2031/etc. - so really being good is delayed 2-3 more years than it could be.

Or you can be a little optimistic in that they're changing their approach and recognize that at the end of this "rebuild" they'll have to "advance spend" a bit from the money they've "saved" in order to start adding better veterans in 2028/2029, before attendance really rises, so that they can get to 92+ win seasons again as soon as 2028/2029. Then of course attendance would rise and equilibrium between attendance/revenue/payroll would be quickly reestablished.

IMO, the first option is very unlikely, and the second and third options may be equally likely.

Yeah, there is no answer, and that should be troubling. Why is BDW Jr. not answering the question so pivotal in your hypothetical reset? I've heard nothing from him about what he intends to do with payroll going forward. I'm not pessimistic or optimistic. I just want an answer from ownership about what it intends to do with payroll going forward in this reset process. You don't know, and I don't know.

CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 10:49 am

rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 08:48 am

CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑22 Nov 2025 18:42 pm Who is the OP going to lecture, when the forum goes down for a few hours for maintenance, about how the Cardinals need to tank. He REALLY wants BDW to save that dry powder.

Even Shady doesn’t post this much about Burleson.

But I like matt even though we've gone round-and-round on multiple topics for years.

He has his point of view but never gets nasty or acts like a richard if you are on the opposite side of the fence.

That makes for some great baseball debates!

Yeah, he’s alright. It’s like when you like and respect someone but you hate their politics. We used to could coexist that way in regular society but can’t now for some reason.

CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 10:44 am We want transformative acquisitions who are proven at the MLB level that can help end this losing. Easier said than done, sure…but we still think they should try, and execute, those moves in conjunction with any other team improvement mechanism.

One other note on why we hate your plan…it entails assuming our high prospects will pan out. You keep mentioning “when Wetherholt and Doyle” blah blah, then we can spend and win. What makes you think they’re exempt from flaming out like so many others we see year after year from all around MLB?

Our savior Wetherholy and 1-pitch Doyle might amount to F-all and I don’t feel like waiting and losing another 3-5 years to find out. If they don’t work out, you know what it will be? Oh oh oh, you should see these OTHER new kids down at AA!!

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 11:59 am

CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 10:44 am We want transformative acquisitions who are proven at the MLB level that can help end this losing. Easier said than done, sure…but we still think they should try, and execute, those moves in conjunction with any other team improvement mechanism.

I get you want that. As I've noted, my problem with that is - what happens if you sign a "J.T. Realmuto"?

When the Phillies re-signed Realmuto for 5 yrs./$110 million, they got:

2021 - age 30 - 4.6 fWAR
2022 - age 31 - 6.7 fWAR
2023 - age 32 - 2.0 fWAR
2024 - age 33 - 2.0 fWAR
2025 - age 34 - 2.1 fWAR

So, yes, as expected he was a "transformative" player for the first two years, but then dropped off significantly for the last three.

If the Cardinals aren't going be fully primed to "compete" until you get Wetherholt and Doyle 2-3 yrs. of ML experience (which it is likely to take that for them to come up to A-S level play), the "J.T. Realmuto" you sign today will have already "shot their shot" in 2026-2027, and won't be that "transformative" player you want to pair with Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. for what you are paying them in 2029, 2030, etc.

And anytime you sign an age 30, age 31, age 32, etc. player, the above isn't just a possible risk, it's really about what your baseline expectation should be - the most likely outcome.

One other note on why we hate your plan…it entails assuming our high prospects will pan out. You keep mentioning “when Wetherholt and Doyle” blah blah, then we can spend and win. What makes you think they’re exempt from flaming out like so many others we see year after year from all around MLB?

Our savior Wetherholy and 1-pitch Doyle might amount to F-all and I don’t feel like waiting and losing another 3-5 years to find out. If they don’t work out, you know what it will be? Oh oh oh, you should see these OTHER new kids down at AA!!

That is exactly why I want to see them trade Donovan, Gray, Arenado, Contreras, etc. for ML-ready prospects.

I don't want them to put all their eggs in the Wetherholt and Doyle baskets. I've said multiple times that that have to get another "Liam Doyle" type high ceiling prospect when they trade Donovan - they need quality over quantity when they deal their best trade asset.

And when they deal the others they need to eat enough salary to at least get back multiple, ML-ready high floor/low ceiling prospects - guys who can be a Burleson, Herrera, etc.

zuck698 wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 12:17 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 11:59 am

CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 10:44 am We want transformative acquisitions who are proven at the MLB level that can help end this losing. Easier said than done, sure…but we still think they should try, and execute, those moves in conjunction with any other team improvement mechanism.

I get you want that. As I've noted, my problem with that is - what happens if you sign a "J.T. Realmuto"?

When the Phillies re-signed Realmuto for 5 yrs./$110 million, they got:

2021 - age 30 - 4.6 fWAR
2022 - age 31 - 6.7 fWAR
2023 - age 32 - 2.0 fWAR
2024 - age 33 - 2.0 fWAR
2025 - age 34 - 2.1 fWAR

So, yes, as expected he was a "transformative" player for the first two years, but then dropped off significantly for the last three.

If the Cardinals aren't going be fully primed to "compete" until you get Wetherholt and Doyle 2-3 yrs. of ML experience (which it is likely to take that for them to come up to A-S level play), the "J.T. Realmuto" you sign today will have already "shot their shot" in 2026-2027, and won't be that "transformative" player you want to pair with Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. for what you are paying them in 2029, 2030, etc.

And anytime you sign an age 30, age 31, age 32, etc. player, the above isn't just a possible risk, it's really about what your baseline expectation should be - the most likely outcome.

One other note on why we hate your plan…it entails assuming our high prospects will pan out. You keep mentioning “when Wetherholt and Doyle” blah blah, then we can spend and win. What makes you think they’re exempt from flaming out like so many others we see year after year from all around MLB?

Our savior Wetherholy and 1-pitch Doyle might amount to F-all and I don’t feel like waiting and losing another 3-5 years to find out. If they don’t work out, you know what it will be? Oh oh oh, you should see these OTHER new kids down at AA!!

That is exactly why I want to see them trade Donovan, Gray, Arenado, Contreras, etc. for ML-ready prospects.

I don't want them to put all their eggs in the Wetherholt and Doyle baskets. I've said multiple times that that have to get another "Liam Doyle" type high ceiling prospect when they trade Donovan - they need quality over quantity when they deal their best trade asset.

And when they deal the others they need to eat enough salary to at least get back multiple, ML-ready high floor/low ceiling prospects - guys who can be a Burleson, Herrera, etc.

Matt, I have said many times I agree with the bolded statements. But you stop one step short here. Many of us agree to trade all of our current vets to get you these great prospects., etc.. But we want one more step! We want Bill to spend some money to replace the vets with different vets so we don't have a continuous flow of possible endless losing baseball. Trade and spend at the same time. Your plans still wins as you get all the prospects you want for your rebuild this way. Why can't you agree the with the second step? You still get everything you want and so do we! Are you worried Bill will go broke?

If they want to go out and get relatively cheap FAs on short term 1-2 year deals, maybe with an eye towards flipping them for more prospects in July 2026, that would be fine. If that wins them a few more games next year, makes some people feel like they are "being competitive", etc. - more power to them.

What I, at least, have said is that I don't want to see them going out and signing really expensive players over age 30 - your Schwarbers, Valdezs, even Bellingers, etc. - to the 5, 6, 7 year contracts they are almost certain to get.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 12:40 pm Unlike Mo, I don't see Bloom making stupid free agent signings or handing out idiotic extensions!

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 11:59 am

CorneliusWolfe wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 10:44 am We want transformative acquisitions who are proven at the MLB level that can help end this losing. Easier said than done, sure…but we still think they should try, and execute, those moves in conjunction with any other team improvement mechanism.

I get you want that. As I've noted, my problem with that is - what happens if you sign a "J.T. Realmuto"?

When the Phillies re-signed Realmuto for 5 yrs./$110 million, they got:

2021 - age 30 - 4.6 fWAR
2022 - age 31 - 6.7 fWAR
2023 - age 32 - 2.0 fWAR
2024 - age 33 - 2.0 fWAR
2025 - age 34 - 2.1 fWAR

So, yes, as expected he was a "transformative" player for the first two years, but then dropped off significantly for the last three.

If the Cardinals aren't going be fully primed to "compete" until you get Wetherholt and Doyle 2-3 yrs. of ML experience (which it is likely to take that for them to come up to A-S level play), the "J.T. Realmuto" you sign today will have already "shot their shot" in 2026-2027, and won't be that "transformative" player you want to pair with Wetherholt, Doyle, etc. for what you are paying them in 2029, 2030, etc.

And anytime you sign an age 30, age 31, age 32, etc. player, the above isn't just a possible risk, it's really about what your baseline expectation should be - the most likely outcome.

One other note on why we hate your plan…it entails assuming our high prospects will pan out. You keep mentioning “when Wetherholt and Doyle” blah blah, then we can spend and win. What makes you think they’re exempt from flaming out like so many others we see year after year from all around MLB?

Our savior Wetherholy and 1-pitch Doyle might amount to F-all and I don’t feel like waiting and losing another 3-5 years to find out. If they don’t work out, you know what it will be? Oh oh oh, you should see these OTHER new kids down at AA!!

That is exactly why I want to see them trade Donovan, Gray, Arenado, Contreras, etc. for ML-ready prospects.

I don't want them to put all their eggs in the Wetherholt and Doyle baskets. I've said multiple times that that have to get another "Liam Doyle" type high ceiling prospect when they trade Donovan - they need quality over quantity when they deal their best trade asset.

And when they deal the others they need to eat enough salary to at least get back multiple, ML-ready high floor/low ceiling prospects - guys who can be a Burleson, Herrera, etc.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 12:46 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 12:40 pm Unlike Mo, I don't see Bloom making stupid free agent signings or handing out idiotic extensions!

The simple truth is - if you talk about specifically signing guys over age 30 to long, expensive contracts, nobody bats for a very high average on those.

If you want to take a shot at winning, you eventually will have to take your chances with one or more such signings, but you never like your chances of it working out, especially as you get to the middle and back end of the contract.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 13:06 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 12:46 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 12:40 pm Unlike Mo, I don't see Bloom making stupid free agent signings or handing out idiotic extensions!

The simple truth is - if you talk about specifically signing guys over age 30 to long, expensive contracts, nobody bats for a very high average on those.

If you want to take a shot at winning, you eventually will have to take your chances with one or more such signings, but you never like your chances of it working out, especially as you get to the middle and back end of the contract.

Agreed

Why I wanted Dewitt to go big for either B. Harper or M. Machado, M. Scherzer the first time he hit FA and wanted to come home to St. Louis.

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 12:49 pm That's interesting. I agree we need to move Gray, Arenado and Contreras but the problem with "MLB ready prospects" is if they were MLB ready they would already be in MLB. Caglianone is an example of that. 6th pick in the first round. Tearing up minor league pitching. If pitchers were allowed to bat they would have hit better than he did when they called him up. If we trade Donovan for prospects is had better be for more than one because we aren't going to get a prospect who can fill Donovan's shoes in 2026. If we are abandoning all hope of competing in 2026 then trade Donovan but get multiple good prospects in return.

Donovan might be the only one of those who could a significant return.

rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 13:06 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 12:46 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 12:40 pm Unlike Mo, I don't see Bloom making stupid free agent signings or handing out idiotic extensions!

The simple truth is - if you talk about specifically signing guys over age 30 to long, expensive contracts, nobody bats for a very high average on those.

If you want to take a shot at winning, you eventually will have to take your chances with one or more such signings, but you never like your chances of it working out, especially as you get to the middle and back end of the contract.

Agreed

Why I wanted Dewitt to go big for either B. Harper or M. Machado, M. Scherzer the first time he hit FA and wanted to come home to St. Louis.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 12:46 pm

rockondlouie wrote: ↑23 Nov 2025 12:40 pm Unlike Mo, I don't see Bloom making stupid free agent signings or handing out idiotic extensions!

The simple truth is - if you talk about specifically signing guys over age 30 to long, expensive contracts, nobody bats for a very high average on those.

If you want to take a shot at winning, you eventually will have to take your chances with one or more such signings, but you never like your chances of it working out, especially as you get to the middle and back end of the contract.