Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay

[zuck698]

And what do Cleveland (4th), Milwaukee (5th), and Tampa Bay (8th) all three have in common?

NO WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONSHIPS since 1948 (Cleveland).

NONE ever for the Brewers & the Rays!

I thought the whole claim of the "tear it down" to the studs crowd was to build a WORLD SERIES WINNER.

Of course I've never said rebuilding their player development system was wrong, in fact I've been on board w/C. Bloom re-building the system since I started promoting his hiring before he was even hired or from Day 1.

But I also think it's idiotic to think the 2026/2027 Cardinals have to lose 100 games for this plan to be successful.

I also think adding major league or major league ready players via trades this offseason and thru smart, low cost free agent signings to field a competitive team will in no way, shape or form affect that player development plan.

Not sure why some can't understand this.

From the OP:

And, although none of them have won a WS, if the Cardinals can achieve what these teams have done with pre-ARB and ARB players and add to that a much more robust $170, $180 million payroll, they should be able to reach considerably higher than even Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay.

BUT

Only if BDWJr ups the payroll to $180-200M so C. Bloom can fill in the missing pieces w/all star caliber talent thru trades or free agency.

That's the only way they put flag #12 above Busch Stadium, no team can do it completely from within.

And as we've discussed I just don't see Dewitt doing that unless he's at that magic 3M attendance and he's not getting there w/mediocre teams in 2026, 2027, 2028.

Exactly Rock! They have made it abundantly clear, over the years, lower number of fans equals lower payroll. Zebras don't usually change stripes.

[rockondlouie]

And what do Cleveland (4th), Milwaukee (5th), and Tampa Bay (8th) all three have in common?

NO WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONSHIPS since 1948 (Cleveland).

NONE ever for the Brewers & the Rays!

I thought the whole claim of the "tear it down" to the studs crowd was to build a WORLD SERIES WINNER.

Of course I've never said rebuilding their player development system was wrong, in fact I've been on board w/C. Bloom re-building the system since I started promoting his hiring before he was even hired or from Day 1.

But I also think it's idiotic to think the 2026/2027 Cardinals have to lose 100 games for this plan to be successful.

I also think adding major league or major league ready players via trades this offseason and thru smart, low cost free agent signings to field a competitive team will in no way, shape or form affect that player development plan.

Not sure why some can't understand this.

From the OP:

And, although none of them have won a WS, if the Cardinals can achieve what these teams have done with pre-ARB and ARB players and add to that a much more robust $170, $180 million payroll, they should be able to reach considerably higher than even Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay.

BUT

Only if BDWJr ups the payroll to $180-200M so C. Bloom can fill in the missing pieces w/all star caliber talent thru trades or free agency.

That's the only way they put flag #12 above Busch Stadium, no team can do it completely from within.

And as we've discussed I just don't see Dewitt doing that unless he's at that magic 3M attendance and he's not getting there w/mediocre teams in 2026, 2027, 2028.

Exactly Rock! They have made it abundantly clear, over the years, lower number of fans equals lower payroll. Zebras don't usually change stripes.

Thx zuck

matt knows this too, he just wants to ignore it because it doesn't fit his narrative.

[mattmitchl44]

And what do Cleveland (4th), Milwaukee (5th), and Tampa Bay (8th) all three have in common?

NO WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONSHIPS since 1948 (Cleveland).

NONE ever for the Brewers & the Rays!

I thought the whole claim of the "tear it down" to the studs crowd was to build a WORLD SERIES WINNER.

Of course I've never said rebuilding their player development system was wrong, in fact I've been on board w/C. Bloom re-building the system since I started promoting his hiring before he was even hired or from Day 1.

But I also think it's idiotic to think the 2026/2027 Cardinals have to lose 100 games for this plan to be successful.

I also think adding major league or major league ready players via trades this offseason and thru smart, low cost free agent signings to field a competitive team will in no way, shape or form affect that player development plan.

Not sure why some can't understand this.

From the OP:

And, although none of them have won a WS, if the Cardinals can achieve what these teams have done with pre-ARB and ARB players and add to that a much more robust $170, $180 million payroll, they should be able to reach considerably higher than even Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay.

BUT

Only if BDWJr ups the payroll to $180-200M so C. Bloom can fill in the missing pieces w/all star caliber talent thru trades or free agency.

That's the only way they put flag #12 above Busch Stadium, no team can do it completely from within.

And as we've discussed I just don't see Dewitt doing that unless he's at that magic 3M attendance and he's not getting there w/mediocre teams in 2026, 2027, 2028.

Exactly Rock! They have made it abundantly clear, over the years, lower number of fans equals lower payroll. Zebras don't usually change stripes.

As I've pointed out to Rock already:

But you can see that their whole "business plan" for the ML team in undergoing a seismic shift right now. Their "business plan" IS changing. Going from consistently increasing payrolls for 20 years to a sharp drop of 40% or 50% IS a change. You can't say "he's never going to change his business plan" when they are, obviously, already changing their business plan!

[zuck698]

And what do Cleveland (4th), Milwaukee (5th), and Tampa Bay (8th) all three have in common?

NO WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONSHIPS since 1948 (Cleveland).

NONE ever for the Brewers & the Rays!

I thought the whole claim of the "tear it down" to the studs crowd was to build a WORLD SERIES WINNER.

Of course I've never said rebuilding their player development system was wrong, in fact I've been on board w/C. Bloom re-building the system since I started promoting his hiring before he was even hired or from Day 1.

But I also think it's idiotic to think the 2026/2027 Cardinals have to lose 100 games for this plan to be successful.

I also think adding major league or major league ready players via trades this offseason and thru smart, low cost free agent signings to field a competitive team will in no way, shape or form affect that player development plan.

Not sure why some can't understand this.

From the OP:

And, although none of them have won a WS, if the Cardinals can achieve what these teams have done with pre-ARB and ARB players and add to that a much more robust $170, $180 million payroll, they should be able to reach considerably higher than even Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay.

BUT

Only if BDWJr ups the payroll to $180-200M so C. Bloom can fill in the missing pieces w/all star caliber talent thru trades or free agency.

That's the only way they put flag #12 above Busch Stadium, no team can do it completely from within.

And as we've discussed I just don't see Dewitt doing that unless he's at that magic 3M attendance and he's not getting there w/mediocre teams in 2026, 2027, 2028.

Exactly Rock! They have made it abundantly clear, over the years, lower number of fans equals lower payroll. Zebras don't usually change stripes.

As I've pointed out to Rock already:

But you can see that their whole "business plan" for the ML team in undergoing a seismic shift right now. Their "business plan" IS changing. Going from consistently increasing payrolls for 20 years to a sharp drop of 40% or 50% IS a change. You can't say "he's never going to change his business plan" when they are, obviously, already changing their business plan!

Ok, so why are they changing their business plan Matt? Does it have to do with less fans showing up, thus less revenue? That is exactly what Rock, myself, and others are trying to point out to you. And once the wallet is closed, who knows if it will open again and how far? I think you are over underestimating Bill's future desire to win. I think a case can be made it has been gone since 2015. Look at all the moves that worked out horribly in the last 10 years. An owner wanting to win would have reigned Mo in a long time ago if that was truly his desire. He wouldn't have allowed Mo to waste all that money. He wouldn't have let the farm system go to shambles. I am a business owner and the buck stops with me if I want to be successful, no one else! So how much desire does Bill have to be successful in the future? Who knows? But you seem convinced that he will spend when the time comes. The problem is, what if that time doesn't come, or if it does, the wallet does not open back up! Yes, I want to see good baseball played. Yes, I hope your plan works. But many of us here are not convinced that it is the only way to proceed. My biggest fear is when that time comes, Bill has even got more comfortable in not spending the $. And since he needs fans in the stands in order to spend, I guess we will all have to attend the games wether they are worth the money to watch or not. Your plan, while it may work, also has a lot of variables that you don't seem interested in considering. Especially Bill's desire to win and if he is willing to spend the money. We have no litmus test for this, since this is really the first time in his 30 years of his stewardship that payroll has not been increasing or staying level each year. I am afraid it might be the reverse of inflation. Inflation causes prices to go up and rarely do they go back down. Some things fluctuate, but for the most part, they don't. So in regards to reverse inflation with Bill, I am afraid once he gets comfortable not spending, he will contine to do so, especially knowing attendance is his biggest driver that he has self acknowledged. He will make money regardless of his decision. I am not sure there is 100% a right or wrong answer, but a good many of us will take another 2006 83-78 season if it means we get another chance at the trophy. Better than not having any chance at all IMO.

[C-Unit]

That's my hope for what Bloom is doing and surely in the process we should reach the "critical mass" of player development you've spoke of Matt.

I would say that the most important thing fans need to internalize right now is that BY FAR the most important thing that will happen this offseason is the prospect return that Bloom gets for Donovan, Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras.

Bloom needs to acquire more prospects - and in particular ones what are ML-ready or near ML-ready - to "prime the system" in order to quickly get the Cardinals player development system to where it is delivering and sustaining that "critical mass" of young talent they absolutely must have on the ML roster.

The long term health of the system can be sustained by doing better at drafting and international signings - feeding the right "stock" into the system at the lowest levels for it to work on to develop ML players for 4, 5, 6 years from now.

But it is essential right now that they get at least one near term high ceiling prospect to go with Wetherholt and Doyle who could turn into All-Stars in the next 3 years, and as many near term high floor/low ceiling prospects (who could turn into just solid, average ML players) as they can.

Everything else has to take a distant back seat to "priming the system" this offseason.

I suppose I agree with what you mean by priming. I would say it's moving pieces around so that everything we have is conducive to a competitive window starting in 2028 (and if not for potential of a lockout, it would be 2027).

That's not to say we wouldn't compete in 2026. But if we did, it would be accidentally competing, using the pieces that fit to the longterm goal. It would essentially be those pieces shining ahead of schedule.

For it to work, the infrastructure of the player development has to be better than it was under Mozeliak. And we have to assume that since Bloom/Cerfolio have gone to work, these things are different.

If they can facilitate proper development of Doyle/Wetherholt, and whoever else is brought in (and the cherry on top would be if they could facilitate a reclamation of Walker although that is far from guaranteed), then they should be able to facilitate ongoing successful player development. Maybe that's what you mean by priming. The development system can be verified as effective if these current pieces can be properly developed. That would mean more confidence in one day being able to draft and develop the next Yadier Molina (a drafted and developed franchise face/HOF player) as this competitive window continues.

I think Winn and Wetherholt (and maybe Herrera) should all have extensions in place by the end of 2026, so long as all 3 are viewed as part of the plan for 2028+.... I would like to see a 7-8 year deal for Winn, a 8 (maybe more with options) for Wetherholt, and a 5-6 year cost-certainty deal with a couple team options on the back-end for Herrera. That would go a long way at "priming" the core of the ML team, long-term.

[Melville]

And what do Cleveland (4th), Milwaukee (5th), and Tampa Bay (8th) all three have in common?

NO WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONSHIPS since 1948 (Cleveland).

NONE ever for the Brewers & the Rays!

I thought the whole claim of the "tear it down" to the studs crowd was to build a WORLD SERIES WINNER.

Of course I've never said rebuilding their player development system was wrong, in fact I've been on board w/C. Bloom re-building the system since I started promoting his hiring before he was even hired or from Day 1.

But I also think it's idiotic to think the 2026/2027 Cardinals have to lose 100 games for this plan to be successful.

I also think adding major league or major league ready players via trades this offseason and thru smart, low cost free agent signings to field a competitive team will in no way, shape or form affect that player development plan.

Not sure why some can't understand this.

From the OP:

And, although none of them have won a WS, if the Cardinals can achieve what these teams have done with pre-ARB and ARB players and add to that a much more robust $170, $180 million payroll, they should be able to reach considerably higher than even Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay.

Forget about winning WS.
Let's discuss merely getting there - because the teams you mentioned appeared just twice in the past 10 seasons you cited.
That is 2 appearances in their past combined 30 seasons (and the only appearances in their combined last 50+ seasons).
One appearance was by the Indians in 2016.
34 year old Mike Napoli was the driving force of that offense with 34 HR and 101 RBI - and he never played an inning with Cleveland until that year.
And he was signed as a FA.
The other appearance was in the strike-shortened and irrelevant 2020 season.
Even then, the star of that team was Randy Arozarena, who was in his first year there after being acquired from the Cardinals.
In one of the greatest post seasons performances of all time, he hit 10 HR, drove in 14, scored 19, and stole 8 bases (sidenote: I was the only person on the planet who predicted his 2020 star-making breakout a year earlier).
So much for your premise.
Two WS appearances between the 3 teams you cited in the last combined 30 seasons - and in BOTH instances it was the acquisition of talent from other organizations which got them there.
Oops.....

[zuck698]

And what do Cleveland (4th), Milwaukee (5th), and Tampa Bay (8th) all three have in common?

NO WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONSHIPS since 1948 (Cleveland).

NONE ever for the Brewers & the Rays!

I thought the whole claim of the "tear it down" to the studs crowd was to build a WORLD SERIES WINNER.

Of course I've never said rebuilding their player development system was wrong, in fact I've been on board w/C. Bloom re-building the system since I started promoting his hiring before he was even hired or from Day 1.

But I also think it's idiotic to think the 2026/2027 Cardinals have to lose 100 games for this plan to be successful.

I also think adding major league or major league ready players via trades this offseason and thru smart, low cost free agent signings to field a competitive team will in no way, shape or form affect that player development plan.

Not sure why some can't understand this.

From the OP:

And, although none of them have won a WS, if the Cardinals can achieve what these teams have done with pre-ARB and ARB players and add to that a much more robust $170, $180 million payroll, they should be able to reach considerably higher than even Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay.

Forget about winning WS.
Let's discuss merely getting there - because the teams you mentioned appeared just twice in the past 10 seasons you cited.
That is 2 appearances in their past combined 30 seasons (and the only appearances in their combined last 50+ seasons).
One appearance was by the Indians in 2016.
34 year old Mike Napoli was the driving force of that offense with 34 HR and 101 RBI - and he never played an inning with Cleveland until that year.
And he was signed as a FA.
The other appearance was in the strike-shortened and irrelevant 2020 season.
Even then, the star of that team was Randy Arozarena, who was in his first year there after being acquired from the Cardinals.
In one of the greatest post seasons performances of all time, he hit 10 HR, drove in 14, scored 19, and stole 8 bases (sidenote: I was the only person on the planet who predicted his 2020 star-making breakout a year earlier).
So much for your premise.
Two WS appearances between the 3 teams you cited in the last combined 30 seasons - and in BOTH instances it was the acquisition of talent from other organizations which got them there.
Oops.....

Great post Melville! Yeah for my money, I would like to see a few more than 2 W.S. in 30 years divided by 3 teams. Or look at in another way. 2 World Series in 90 years! I certainly would not be excited with those results. Heck, Bow Tie could have probably pulled that off by accident.

[CCard]

For those who think we who preach that the Cardinals can rebuild their player development to be the engine that drives consistent success are wrong, Cleveland (4th), Milwaukee (5th), and Tampa Bay (8th) are among the Top 10 organizations in regular season wins in the last decade - along with the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, Cubs, and Cardinals.

Let's see where each of Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay got their top 10 position players and top 10 pitchers, by fWAR across 2016-2025, from.

Cleveland

Top 10 Position Players by fWAR

J. Ramirez - came to the majors with Cleveland
F. Lindor - came to the majors with Cleveland
S. Kwan - came to the majors with Cleveland
A. Gimenez - obtained from the Mets after his first season in the majors
C. Santana - came to the majors with Cleveland
R. Perez - came to the majors with Cleveland
J. Naylor - obtained from the Padres during his second season in the majors
J. Kipnis - came to the majors with Cleveland
A. Rosario - came to Cleveland after his first four years with the Mets
M. Brantley - came to the majors with Cleveland

Top 10 Pitchers by fWAR

S. Bieber - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Kluber - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Carrasco - came to the majors with Cleveland
T. Bauer - obtained from Arizona after his first season in the majors
M. Clevinger - came to the majors with Cleveland
E. Clase - obtained from Texas after his first season in the majors
T. Bibee - came to the majors with Cleveland
A. Civale - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Smith - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Quantrill - obtained from the Padres during his second season in the majors

So 14 of the 20 came up from the Cleveland minor league system, and 6 were added as pre-ARB/ARB year players from other teams

Milwaukee

Top 10 Position Players by fWAR

C. Yelich - obtained from Miami after his fifth season in the majors
W. Adames - obtained from Tampa Bay during his fourth season in the majors
W. Contreras - obtained from Atlanta after his third season in the majors
L. Cain - came to the majors briefly with Milwaukee, went to KC, then came back later
R. Braun - came to the majors with Milwaukee
M. Pina - obtained from KC after his second ML season
T. Shaw - obtained from Boston after his second ML season
J. Chourio - came to the majors with Milwaukee
B. Turang - came to the majors with Milwaukee
S. Frelick - came to the majors with Milwaukee

Top 10 Pitchers by fWAR

B. Woodruff - came to the majors with Milwaukee
F. Peralta - came to the majors with Milwaukee
C. Burnes - came to the majors with Milwaukee
J. Hader - came to the majors with Milwaukee
D. Williams - came to the majors with Milwaukee
Z. Davies - came to the majors with Milwaukee
A. Houser - came to the majors with Milwaukee
J. Nelson - came to the majors with Milwaukee
C. Anderson - obtained from Arizona after his second season in the majors
B. Suter - came to the majors with Milwaukee

So 13 of the 20 came up from the Milwaukee minor league system, 6 were added as pre-ARB/ARB year players from other teams, and one (L. Cain) came back much later.

Tampa Bay

Top 10 Position Players by fWAR

Y. Diaz - obtained from Cleveland after his second season in the majors
B. Lowe - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
K. Kiermaier - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
R. Arozarena - obtained from the Cardinals after his first season in the majors
I. Paredes - obtained from Detroit after his second season in the majors
W. Franco - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
J. Wendle - obtained from Oakland after his second season in the majors
E. Longoria - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
T. Pham - obtained from the Cardinals during his fifth season in the majors
A. Meadows - obtained from Pittsburgh during his rookie season

Top 10 Pitchers by fWAR

B. Snell - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
T. Glasnow - obtained from Pittsburgh during his third season in the majors
C. Archer - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
D. Rasmussen - obtained from Milwaukee during his second season in the majors
S. McClanahan - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
C. Morton - obtained late at age 35 after years in the majors
Z. Eflin - obtained late at age 29 after years in the majors
P. Fairbanks - obtained from Texas during his rookie season
R. Yarbrough - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
J. Springs - obtained after three major league seasons with Texas and Boston

So 8 of the 20 came up from the Tampa Bay minor league system, 10 were added as pre-ARB/ARB year players from other teams, and two (C. Morton and Z. Eflin) came much later.

These teams show that you can have sustained success by the vast majority of your production coming from either players you develop yourself or players you obtain as cost controlled players early in their ML careers.

And, although none of them have won a WS, if the Cardinals can achieve what these teams have done with pre-ARB and ARB players and add to that a much more robust $170, $180 million payroll, they should be able to reach considerably higher than even Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay.

What did they win?

[CorneliusWolfe]

For those who think we who preach that the Cardinals can rebuild their player development to be the engine that drives consistent success are wrong, Cleveland (4th), Milwaukee (5th), and Tampa Bay (8th) are among the Top 10 organizations in regular season wins in the last decade - along with the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, Cubs, and Cardinals.

Let's see where each of Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay got their top 10 position players and top 10 pitchers, by fWAR across 2016-2025, from.

Cleveland

Top 10 Position Players by fWAR

J. Ramirez - came to the majors with Cleveland
F. Lindor - came to the majors with Cleveland
S. Kwan - came to the majors with Cleveland
A. Gimenez - obtained from the Mets after his first season in the majors
C. Santana - came to the majors with Cleveland
R. Perez - came to the majors with Cleveland
J. Naylor - obtained from the Padres during his second season in the majors
J. Kipnis - came to the majors with Cleveland
A. Rosario - came to Cleveland after his first four years with the Mets
M. Brantley - came to the majors with Cleveland

Top 10 Pitchers by fWAR

S. Bieber - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Kluber - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Carrasco - came to the majors with Cleveland
T. Bauer - obtained from Arizona after his first season in the majors
M. Clevinger - came to the majors with Cleveland
E. Clase - obtained from Texas after his first season in the majors
T. Bibee - came to the majors with Cleveland
A. Civale - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Smith - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Quantrill - obtained from the Padres during his second season in the majors

So 14 of the 20 came up from the Cleveland minor league system, and 6 were added as pre-ARB/ARB year players from other teams

Milwaukee

Top 10 Position Players by fWAR

C. Yelich - obtained from Miami after his fifth season in the majors
W. Adames - obtained from Tampa Bay during his fourth season in the majors
W. Contreras - obtained from Atlanta after his third season in the majors
L. Cain - came to the majors briefly with Milwaukee, went to KC, then came back later
R. Braun - came to the majors with Milwaukee
M. Pina - obtained from KC after his second ML season
T. Shaw - obtained from Boston after his second ML season
J. Chourio - came to the majors with Milwaukee
B. Turang - came to the majors with Milwaukee
S. Frelick - came to the majors with Milwaukee

Top 10 Pitchers by fWAR

B. Woodruff - came to the majors with Milwaukee
F. Peralta - came to the majors with Milwaukee
C. Burnes - came to the majors with Milwaukee
J. Hader - came to the majors with Milwaukee
D. Williams - came to the majors with Milwaukee
Z. Davies - came to the majors with Milwaukee
A. Houser - came to the majors with Milwaukee
J. Nelson - came to the majors with Milwaukee
C. Anderson - obtained from Arizona after his second season in the majors
B. Suter - came to the majors with Milwaukee

So 13 of the 20 came up from the Milwaukee minor league system, 6 were added as pre-ARB/ARB year players from other teams, and one (L. Cain) came back much later.

Tampa Bay

Top 10 Position Players by fWAR

Y. Diaz - obtained from Cleveland after his second season in the majors
B. Lowe - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
K. Kiermaier - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
R. Arozarena - obtained from the Cardinals after his first season in the majors
I. Paredes - obtained from Detroit after his second season in the majors
W. Franco - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
J. Wendle - obtained from Oakland after his second season in the majors
E. Longoria - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
T. Pham - obtained from the Cardinals during his fifth season in the majors
A. Meadows - obtained from Pittsburgh during his rookie season

Top 10 Pitchers by fWAR

B. Snell - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
T. Glasnow - obtained from Pittsburgh during his third season in the majors
C. Archer - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
D. Rasmussen - obtained from Milwaukee during his second season in the majors
S. McClanahan - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
C. Morton - obtained late at age 35 after years in the majors
Z. Eflin - obtained late at age 29 after years in the majors
P. Fairbanks - obtained from Texas during his rookie season
R. Yarbrough - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
J. Springs - obtained after three major league seasons with Texas and Boston

So 8 of the 20 came up from the Tampa Bay minor league system, 10 were added as pre-ARB/ARB year players from other teams, and two (C. Morton and Z. Eflin) came much later.

These teams show that you can have sustained success by the vast majority of your production coming from either players you develop yourself or players you obtain as cost controlled players early in their ML careers.

And, although none of them have won a WS, if the Cardinals can achieve what these teams have done with pre-ARB and ARB players and add to that a much more robust $170, $180 million payroll, they should be able to reach considerably higher than even Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay.

CT is about winning championships...show me those World Series rings

You beat me to it Scouty! 0 World titles from the OP’s daily stated master plan of cheapness.

[Galatians221jb1]

The Cardinals absolutely have to get much better at:

1) evaluating amateur draft talent
2) evaluating international signing talent
3) evaluating talent within their own minor league system, and
4) evaluating talent in other teams' minor league systems that they can poach

I’d add developing talent. Neither Gorman nor Walker were ready for the major leagues. They have major league talent but don’t know what to do with it or how to use it.

[CorneliusWolfe]

Who is the OP going to lecture, when the forum goes down for a few hours for maintenance, about how the Cardinals need to tank. He REALLY wants BDW to save that dry powder.

Even Shady doesn’t post this much about Burleson.

[zuck698]

Who is the OP going to lecture, when the forum goes down for a few hours for maintenance, about how the Cardinals need to tank. He REALLY wants BDW to save that dry powder.

Even Shady doesn’t post this much about Burleson.

LOL. Schools out C.W. 2 World Series in 90 years in his examples should classify as a MIC DROP!
No Shady does not!

[mattmitchl44]

For those who think we who preach that the Cardinals can rebuild their player development to be the engine that drives consistent success are wrong, Cleveland (4th), Milwaukee (5th), and Tampa Bay (8th) are among the Top 10 organizations in regular season wins in the last decade - along with the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, Cubs, and Cardinals.

Let's see where each of Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay got their top 10 position players and top 10 pitchers, by fWAR across 2016-2025, from.

Cleveland

Top 10 Position Players by fWAR

J. Ramirez - came to the majors with Cleveland
F. Lindor - came to the majors with Cleveland
S. Kwan - came to the majors with Cleveland
A. Gimenez - obtained from the Mets after his first season in the majors
C. Santana - came to the majors with Cleveland
R. Perez - came to the majors with Cleveland
J. Naylor - obtained from the Padres during his second season in the majors
J. Kipnis - came to the majors with Cleveland
A. Rosario - came to Cleveland after his first four years with the Mets
M. Brantley - came to the majors with Cleveland

Top 10 Pitchers by fWAR

S. Bieber - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Kluber - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Carrasco - came to the majors with Cleveland
T. Bauer - obtained from Arizona after his first season in the majors
M. Clevinger - came to the majors with Cleveland
E. Clase - obtained from Texas after his first season in the majors
T. Bibee - came to the majors with Cleveland
A. Civale - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Smith - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Quantrill - obtained from the Padres during his second season in the majors

So 14 of the 20 came up from the Cleveland minor league system, and 6 were added as pre-ARB/ARB year players from other teams

Milwaukee

Top 10 Position Players by fWAR

C. Yelich - obtained from Miami after his fifth season in the majors
W. Adames - obtained from Tampa Bay during his fourth season in the majors
W. Contreras - obtained from Atlanta after his third season in the majors
L. Cain - came to the majors briefly with Milwaukee, went to KC, then came back later
R. Braun - came to the majors with Milwaukee
M. Pina - obtained from KC after his second ML season
T. Shaw - obtained from Boston after his second ML season
J. Chourio - came to the majors with Milwaukee
B. Turang - came to the majors with Milwaukee
S. Frelick - came to the majors with Milwaukee

Top 10 Pitchers by fWAR

B. Woodruff - came to the majors with Milwaukee
F. Peralta - came to the majors with Milwaukee
C. Burnes - came to the majors with Milwaukee
J. Hader - came to the majors with Milwaukee
D. Williams - came to the majors with Milwaukee
Z. Davies - came to the majors with Milwaukee
A. Houser - came to the majors with Milwaukee
J. Nelson - came to the majors with Milwaukee
C. Anderson - obtained from Arizona after his second season in the majors
B. Suter - came to the majors with Milwaukee

So 13 of the 20 came up from the Milwaukee minor league system, 6 were added as pre-ARB/ARB year players from other teams, and one (L. Cain) came back much later.

Tampa Bay

Top 10 Position Players by fWAR

Y. Diaz - obtained from Cleveland after his second season in the majors
B. Lowe - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
K. Kiermaier - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
R. Arozarena - obtained from the Cardinals after his first season in the majors
I. Paredes - obtained from Detroit after his second season in the majors
W. Franco - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
J. Wendle - obtained from Oakland after his second season in the majors
E. Longoria - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
T. Pham - obtained from the Cardinals during his fifth season in the majors
A. Meadows - obtained from Pittsburgh during his rookie season

Top 10 Pitchers by fWAR

B. Snell - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
T. Glasnow - obtained from Pittsburgh during his third season in the majors
C. Archer - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
D. Rasmussen - obtained from Milwaukee during his second season in the majors
S. McClanahan - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
C. Morton - obtained late at age 35 after years in the majors
Z. Eflin - obtained late at age 29 after years in the majors
P. Fairbanks - obtained from Texas during his rookie season
R. Yarbrough - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
J. Springs - obtained after three major league seasons with Texas and Boston

So 8 of the 20 came up from the Tampa Bay minor league system, 10 were added as pre-ARB/ARB year players from other teams, and two (C. Morton and Z. Eflin) came much later.

These teams show that you can have sustained success by the vast majority of your production coming from either players you develop yourself or players you obtain as cost controlled players early in their ML careers.

And, although none of them have won a WS, if the Cardinals can achieve what these teams have done with pre-ARB and ARB players and add to that a much more robust $170, $180 million payroll, they should be able to reach considerably higher than even Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay.

CT is about winning championships...show me those World Series rings

You beat me to it Scouty! 0 World titles from the OP’s daily stated master plan of cheapness.

Wow - you can't read either?

And, although none of them have won a WS, if the Cardinals can achieve what these teams have done with pre-ARB and ARB players and add to that a much more robust $170, $180 million payroll, they should be able to reach considerably higher than even Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay.

[CorneliusWolfe]

For those who think we who preach that the Cardinals can rebuild their player development to be the engine that drives consistent success are wrong, Cleveland (4th), Milwaukee (5th), and Tampa Bay (8th) are among the Top 10 organizations in regular season wins in the last decade - along with the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, Cubs, and Cardinals.

Let's see where each of Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay got their top 10 position players and top 10 pitchers, by fWAR across 2016-2025, from.

Cleveland

Top 10 Position Players by fWAR

J. Ramirez - came to the majors with Cleveland
F. Lindor - came to the majors with Cleveland
S. Kwan - came to the majors with Cleveland
A. Gimenez - obtained from the Mets after his first season in the majors
C. Santana - came to the majors with Cleveland
R. Perez - came to the majors with Cleveland
J. Naylor - obtained from the Padres during his second season in the majors
J. Kipnis - came to the majors with Cleveland
A. Rosario - came to Cleveland after his first four years with the Mets
M. Brantley - came to the majors with Cleveland

Top 10 Pitchers by fWAR

S. Bieber - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Kluber - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Carrasco - came to the majors with Cleveland
T. Bauer - obtained from Arizona after his first season in the majors
M. Clevinger - came to the majors with Cleveland
E. Clase - obtained from Texas after his first season in the majors
T. Bibee - came to the majors with Cleveland
A. Civale - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Smith - came to the majors with Cleveland
C. Quantrill - obtained from the Padres during his second season in the majors

So 14 of the 20 came up from the Cleveland minor league system, and 6 were added as pre-ARB/ARB year players from other teams

Milwaukee

Top 10 Position Players by fWAR

C. Yelich - obtained from Miami after his fifth season in the majors
W. Adames - obtained from Tampa Bay during his fourth season in the majors
W. Contreras - obtained from Atlanta after his third season in the majors
L. Cain - came to the majors briefly with Milwaukee, went to KC, then came back later
R. Braun - came to the majors with Milwaukee
M. Pina - obtained from KC after his second ML season
T. Shaw - obtained from Boston after his second ML season
J. Chourio - came to the majors with Milwaukee
B. Turang - came to the majors with Milwaukee
S. Frelick - came to the majors with Milwaukee

Top 10 Pitchers by fWAR

B. Woodruff - came to the majors with Milwaukee
F. Peralta - came to the majors with Milwaukee
C. Burnes - came to the majors with Milwaukee
J. Hader - came to the majors with Milwaukee
D. Williams - came to the majors with Milwaukee
Z. Davies - came to the majors with Milwaukee
A. Houser - came to the majors with Milwaukee
J. Nelson - came to the majors with Milwaukee
C. Anderson - obtained from Arizona after his second season in the majors
B. Suter - came to the majors with Milwaukee

So 13 of the 20 came up from the Milwaukee minor league system, 6 were added as pre-ARB/ARB year players from other teams, and one (L. Cain) came back much later.

Tampa Bay

Top 10 Position Players by fWAR

Y. Diaz - obtained from Cleveland after his second season in the majors
B. Lowe - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
K. Kiermaier - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
R. Arozarena - obtained from the Cardinals after his first season in the majors
I. Paredes - obtained from Detroit after his second season in the majors
W. Franco - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
J. Wendle - obtained from Oakland after his second season in the majors
E. Longoria - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
T. Pham - obtained from the Cardinals during his fifth season in the majors
A. Meadows - obtained from Pittsburgh during his rookie season

Top 10 Pitchers by fWAR

B. Snell - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
T. Glasnow - obtained from Pittsburgh during his third season in the majors
C. Archer - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
D. Rasmussen - obtained from Milwaukee during his second season in the majors
S. McClanahan - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
C. Morton - obtained late at age 35 after years in the majors
Z. Eflin - obtained late at age 29 after years in the majors
P. Fairbanks - obtained from Texas during his rookie season
R. Yarbrough - came to the majors with Tampa Bay
J. Springs - obtained after three major league seasons with Texas and Boston

So 8 of the 20 came up from the Tampa Bay minor league system, 10 were added as pre-ARB/ARB year players from other teams, and two (C. Morton and Z. Eflin) came much later.

These teams show that you can have sustained success by the vast majority of your production coming from either players you develop yourself or players you obtain as cost controlled players early in their ML careers.

And, although none of them have won a WS, if the Cardinals can achieve what these teams have done with pre-ARB and ARB players and add to that a much more robust $170, $180 million payroll, they should be able to reach considerably higher than even Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay.

CT is about winning championships...show me those World Series rings

You beat me to it Scouty! 0 World titles from the OP’s daily stated master plan of cheapness.

Wow - you can't read either?

And, although none of them have won a WS, if the Cardinals can achieve what these teams have done with pre-ARB and ARB players and add to that a much more robust $170, $180 million payroll, they should be able to reach considerably higher than even Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay.

we can read…you said it all in the first sentence - “none of them have won a world series”

I can acknowledge you do mention adding spending. But some rankings already have us as #1 farm. But when we mention actually adding payroll….you argue that it isn’t time. It’s never time is it? Not until you have all your magical prospects trained up by way of losing.

[mattmitchl44]

Ok, so why are they changing their business plan Matt? Does it have to do with less fans showing up, thus less revenue? That is exactly what Rock, myself, and others are trying to point out to you. And once the wallet is closed, who knows if it will open again and how far? I think you are over underestimating Bill's future desire to win. I think a case can be made it has been gone since 2015. Look at all the moves that worked out horribly in the last 10 years. An owner wanting to win would have reigned Mo in a long time ago if that was truly his desire. He wouldn't have allowed Mo to waste all that money. He wouldn't have let the farm system go to shambles. I am a business owner and the buck stops with me if I want to be successful, no one else! So how much desire does Bill have to be successful in the future? Who knows? But you seem convinced that he will spend when the time comes. The problem is, what if that time doesn't come, or if it does, the wallet does not open back up! Yes, I want to see good baseball played. Yes, I hope your plan works. But many of us here are not convinced that it is the only way to proceed. My biggest fear is when that time comes, Bill has even got more comfortable in not spending the $. And since he needs fans in the stands in order to spend, I guess we will all have to attend the games wether they are worth the money to watch or not. Your plan, while it may work, also has a lot of variables that you don't seem interested in considering. Especially Bill's desire to win and if he is willing to spend the money. We have no litmus test for this, since this is really the first time in his 30 years of his stewardship that payroll has not been increasing or staying level each year. I am afraid it might be the reverse of inflation. Inflation causes prices to go up and rarely do they go back down. Some things fluctuate, but for the most part, they don't. So in regards to reverse inflation with Bill, I am afraid once he gets comfortable not spending, he will contine to do so, especially knowing attendance is his biggest driver that he has self acknowledged. He will make money regardless of his decision. I am not sure there is 100% a right or wrong answer, but a good many of us will take another 2006 83-78 season if it means we get another chance at the trophy. Better than not having any chance at all IMO.

You can fear whatever it is that you want to fear. You may be right - maybe they won't "advance spend" at the end of this rebuild by one offseason to accelerate getting back to contending. I only say that, inasmuch as I already see them managing this team much differently than they ever have over the last 20 years, that I don't believe your fear is guaranteed to come true.

Further, if the Cardinals rebuild of their player development system is effective, even if ownership does not "advance spend" to bring in a few high priced veterans early, the Cardinals will have a roster of really good young players in 2028/2029, a roster that on its own - even if just supplemented with a few cheap veteran players - should be capable of winning 86, 87, etc. games. That should start to bring fans back to the ballpark and increase attendance and revenue. Then, by your own, "attendance drives payroll" philosophy, payroll will rise anyway in 2030, 2031, etc.

So, even if what you fear is true, if the Cardinals rebuild of their player development system is effective and they are a Top 5 player development system on an annual basis, it only delays them getting back to being able to be a 92+ win team by 1, 2, 3 years. So instead of going 92+, 92+, 92+ wins for 2028-2030, maybe we have to settle for 86, 88, 92+ wins. But they will still be in a much better shape to continue that success for 2031, 2032, etc.

[mattmitchl44]

we can read…you said it all in the first sentence - “none of them have won a world series”

I can acknowledge you do mention adding spending. But some rankings already have us as #1 farm. But when we mention actually adding payroll….you argue that it isn’t time. It’s never time is it? Not until you have all your magical prospects trained up by way of losing.

Having, at this one snapshot in time, the purported #1 farm system isn't enough.

If that is a fact as of right now, it has not yet impacted the ML roster in a meaningful way, and likely won't impact the roster in a meaningful way until Wetherholt and Doyle are actually on the ML team and actually playing at an All-Star, or at least borderline All-Star, level in the majors.

Having the purported #1 farm system is a leading indicator of future success - success in 2028, 2029, etc. - it is not a present indicator of being ready to have success in 2026.

The current state of the Cardinals ML roster is that it lacks talent from pre-ARB and ARB players.

In 2025, the Cardinals were 18th in fWAR from pitchers age 27 and under. The Cardinals were 11th in fWAR from position players age 27 and under.

Getting a total of 15.6 fWAR from all players age 27 and under isn't enough (Milwaukee got 32.4). That's ~17 wins, almost exactly the difference between Milwaukee's 97 wins and the Cardinals' 78. Not a coincidence.

If the Cardinals can get their fWAR from players age 27 and under up to 25, 27, 30, then with their $50, $60, $70 million advantage over Milwaukee in ML payroll, they can have teams that reliably win 92, 95, even 97 games and have the talent to go much more toe-to-toe with teams like the Dodgers in the postseason.

As I've said before the "rebuild" is done and the "compete" phase starts when: (1) Wetherholt and Doyle (or maybe some other high ceiling prospect they get by trading Donovan this offseason) are actually on the ML team and actually playing at an All-Star, or at least borderline All-Star, level in the majors AND (2) the farm system is primed to keep delivering, on average, three successful rookies to the ML roster per year.