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renostl wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 15:18 pm IMO,
The error was in counting on too many to emerge at the same time
without a known carrier in the group.

As I've noted before, they basically need to successfully matriculate three prospects to the majors every year. If you divide the roster up into 15 high value (5 SPs, 8 starting position players, 1 DH, 1 closer) spots and 11 lower value (7 other RPs, 4 bench players) spots, the steady state roster needs to look something like:

- 3 rookies (2 in lower value spots; 1 in a high value spot) making close to the ML minimum (total ~$3 million)
- 3 2nd year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) making close to the ML minimum (total ~$3 million)
- 3 3rd year players (2 in lower value spots; 1 in a high value spot) making close to the ML minimum (total ~$3 million)
- 3 ARB-1 year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) averaging maybe $2.5 million (total ~$7.5 million)
- 3 ARB-2 year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) averaging maybe $5 million (total ~$15 million)
- 3 ARB-3 year players (1 in a lower value spot; 2 in high value spots) averaging maybe $7.5 million (total ~$22.5 million)
- 8 full market value veterans (3 in lower value spots; 5 in high value spots) taking up a total of ~$120 million in payroll

But to successfully matriculate three prospects to the majors every year, you probably need to have 5 or 6 prospects who you think may be "ML ready" because not all will actually be ready to successfully make the jump.

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 12:59 pm He was a 3rd round HS draftee. We traded for him as a highly regarded SP who had SO success at A+ and a few starts at AA - way back in 2023.

Now he's 24 yo, has been injured multiple times, and will lose all of 2026 to TJ. And he will still need 2027 to rebuild strength and get experience at AAA (only 6 career starts at that level).

Yes we may someday salvage value from him, but the timeline is the problem here. Best case over 5 years from trade to any kind of MLB production is just not efficient. And as we've seen so many things have gone wrong along the way, a prospect coming from that low in the minors may not even ever make it to MLB. Especially pitching. Drafting someone like Wacha (who still had a few injuries but nothing like this) was such a quicker development process. Makes you wonder what Texas knew about Roby's health that made them willing to trade him - adverse selection bias.

Just something to keep in mind as we evaluate new "prospects" that we might acquire this winter. I'm not overly excited until they show they are MLB ready.

Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 08:41 am

WeeVikes wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 16:07 pm

Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 15:50 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 13:06 pm Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

Just curious, why do you say that?

Thanks.

Because Mattmitch thinks we are going to magically field a team of star prospects that all are going to click at the same time and lead us to greatness. He doesnt want to spend any. He wants Memphis to be in STL.

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 18:03 pm

Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 08:41 am

WeeVikes wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 16:07 pm

Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 15:50 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 13:06 pm Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

Just curious, why do you say that?

Thanks.

Because Mattmitch thinks we are going to magically field a team of star prospects that all are going to click at the same time and lead us to greatness. He doesnt want to spend any. He wants Memphis to be in STL.

I don’t think you understand a word he’s written here, if this is sincerely your take away.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 09:11 am

Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 08:32 am We have a team full of young, cost-controlled players NOW.

Their current team of young, cost-controlled players AREN'T GOOD ENOUGH to be really competitive RIGHT NOW.

That's the problem.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 19:36 pm

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 18:03 pm

Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 08:41 am

WeeVikes wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 16:07 pm

Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 15:50 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 13:06 pm Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

Just curious, why do you say that?

Thanks.

Because Mattmitch thinks we are going to magically field a team of star prospects that all are going to click at the same time and lead us to greatness. He doesnt want to spend any. He wants Memphis to be in STL.

I don’t think you understand a word he’s written here, if this is sincerely your take away.

He likes building strawmen.

ecleme22 wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 09:08 am

Carp4Cy wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 12:59 pm He was a 3rd round HS draftee. We traded for him as a highly regarded SP who had SO success at A+ and a few starts at AA - way back in 2023.

Now he's 24 yo, has been injured multiple times, and will lose all of 2026 to TJ. And he will still need 2027 to rebuild strength and get experience at AAA (only 6 career starts at that level).

Yes we may someday salvage value from him, but the timeline is the problem here. Best case over 5 years from trade to any kind of MLB production is just not efficient. And as we've seen so many things have gone wrong along the way, a prospect coming from that low in the minors may not even ever make it to MLB. Especially pitching. Drafting someone like Wacha (who still had a few injuries but nothing like this) was such a quicker development process. Makes you wonder what Texas knew about Roby's health that made them willing to trade him - adverse selection bias.

Just something to keep in mind as we evaluate new "prospects" that we might acquire this winter. I'm not overly excited until they show they are MLB ready.

No prospects are 100%, but you have to remember a thing called TALENT EVALUATION. That helps organizations make more informed decisions on who they keep, who they trade and who they trade for.

Mo was horrible at it. Bloom is now in charge.

So implying that prospects are a 'crapshoot' isn't really accurate when the organization is well run.

Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 20:29 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 19:36 pm

Quincy Varnish wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 18:03 pm

Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑15 Nov 2025 08:41 am

WeeVikes wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 16:07 pm

Cardinals4Life wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 15:50 pm

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑14 Nov 2025 13:06 pm Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

Just curious, why do you say that?

Thanks.

Because Mattmitch thinks we are going to magically field a team of star prospects that all are going to click at the same time and lead us to greatness. He doesnt want to spend any. He wants Memphis to be in STL.

I don’t think you understand a word he’s written here, if this is sincerely your take away.

He likes building strawmen.

Nope, just want to build a winner, that's all.