Is Now The Time For The Blues To Take A Big Swing?

[TheJackBurton]

Thanks for that information. I assumed aging curves were pretty general and that forwards would peak earlier than defensemen. So as you say, Kyrou is at the tail end of his peak. Thomas is at his peak and maybe has two years of top production (two-way) remaining, while Neighbors and Holloway are expected to peak next year. So our top center, top two wingers (plus Neighbors), our starting goalie, and three of our top four defensemen are all at a point where the best we'll probably get out of them will be in the next 2 (maybe 3) years.

Exactly, I think there are two windows. We are right in the middle of the current window, which is probably pretty short. Then the next window is Bolduc, Snuggy, Dvo, and our top prospects with our current core (Thomas, Broberg, Holloway, Kyrou, and Parayko still around) being the supporting players in 4-5 years. I think the current window needs a #2C (or other elite forward), and ideally an upgrade at #2RHD if they want to make an extended playoff run or two.

Yep, agreed. I see it pretty much exactly the same way.

I’ll note that d-men and goalies tend to peak later than forwards - 27-28ish.

Also, go look back on the Cup winning team the last number of decades and you’ll find zero teams with a 1C in their 30s. We need to strike while Thomas is in that range…or otherwise we’re most likely looking at that window closing and hoping Dvorsky or someone else can be a Cup caliber 1C as they get into their mid to later 20s.

I'd say that has a lot to do with the free agency rules.

Anyway at any rate we need a short term 2c right now and long term top 4 d over the next couple years.

Of course there are some other creative paths like Trading Dvorsky for a prime age center right now.

Its crazy how fast we went from what most thought was dire straights to what seems to be one right player away from being a very serious contender.

Army has made some moves I really thought were stupid but I gotta say he has killed this recent retooling situation

The trick now is to get that 2c now without handcuffing our ability to retool the d over the next few years.

Yeah, the outlook has certainly changed quickly. But I think that also presents a cautionary tale to not get ahead of ourselves here. I see the Blues as more than 1 big piece away. They need at least a 2C but also an upgrade at D. Fowler changed the landscape big time there but with his age, he’s not a longterm solution IMO. We could really use an upgrade at RD. The 2022 version of Faulk would be great. The 2025 going into 2026 version? He’s just not that guy anymore unfortunately.

But that upgrade is probably secondary. We could probably get by with a top-4 of Fowler-Parayko, Broberg-Faulk but then we should really focus on getting a quality 3RD. I just don’t think Kessel is the guy and whether the 3LD is Leddy, Tucker or Suter (or combo), none are ideal on the right side. I keep going back to Dante Fabbro but he may end up commanding too much on the open market. I guess we’ll find out though soon enough.

If I'm looking 3RD I'm looking at a team that (bleep) out last year and is ready for a full rebuild ala Boston, or UFA. I don't think age is as much of a concern in that position as money is.

So Jokiharju? He’s a pending UFA so yeah, he’s a possibility. Wouldn’t cost assets, just money.

And agree. Don’t care if the solution there is only short term or really care a ton about the age of that player.

That's who I was kind of looking at. Doubt they really make much of an attempt to re-sign him so he very likely goes UFA, shouldn't cost a ton, and he's not a terrible option and still decently young to boot.

[George Zipp]

I’d say the Blues are currently somewhat positioned similarly to what they were the summer of 2018 when they traded for ROR and signed Bozak. They absolutely should make that sort of move again if they can. But finding that trade partner will be the hard part. And what if the player needs to waive his NTC to come here? Or he’s a RFA and due a new contract? Would he even want to come here and commit to STL for X number of years? That’s the unknown in the situation. But yes, Army should be pursuing such a deal and we have the assets available to pull it off if the right deal comes along and Army feels it’s time to pull the trigger.

You asked about players waiving their NTC to come to St. Louis. From what I’ve observed, STL is looked upon pretty favorably by many NHL players, especially those from Canada. I don’t know if European players feel the same way. Seems like a lot of the Russians gravitate to the East Coast and Florida teams.

I see cities/franchises in terms of desirable destinations in terms of tiers.

At the top you have the teams in tax advantage states, Original 6 teams and teams in the biggest cities. But these teams can fall into lower tiers if they become dumpster fires or are run poorly. But on average, they have a huge advantage.

The next tier are good teams that are run well.

Then there’s well run teams that are just ok.

Then well run teams that are bad/rebuilding.

Last tier are the dumpster fires/poorly ran teams.

Canadian teams generally fall somewhere in-between Tier 2 and 3. They have a big tax disadvantage but are also usually pretty big draws. Hard to get Americans to want to go/stay there a lot of the times.

I’d say the Blues likely just moved themselves from Tier 3 to Tier 2. But they’re borderline. They’re well run, spend to the Cap and are emerging. But STL as a city isn’t a great draw. I think it’s an underrated city, especially if you have money like pro athletes obviously do, but it’s still an obstacle Army has to work around.

IT could be a hard sell, but I think where that comes into play is with the alumni and a player like Fowler.

He was living in Anaheim, although California is a high tax state, the city of Anaheim is beautiful and a great place to live.

Gets traded here and instantly falls in love and I think has already moved his family here and wants to extend.

If I'm a player I listen to him way more than I listen to a news report that is meant to scare.

Yeah, both Army and Ott have described St. Louis as a touch city to sell initially but once they get the player here then they tend to not want to leave. So it’s that initial sell that’s the hump they have to get over. But with the Blues emerging as a solid playoff team and looking to be on the rise, they should become a better destination. So UFAs more willing to sign here and STL on fewer partial-NTC lists. And for players with full-NTCs, more willingness to waive it to come here.

STL gets a bad rap for reasons that typically aren't going to impact a pro athlete with the salaries they earn. Nobody can argue that downtown is a hellhole that needs work. There are a lot of drama queens on these forums that think you are going to get murdered and raped every time you go to a Blues game and park at 16th and Chestnut and walk. I've been to 500 plus events downtown and I've only been murdered twice. Most of the crime that gives us a lousy reputation happens in far North City. None of these guys are buying real estate near Crown Candy.

The plusses for pro athletes. The cost of living in this city is beyond reasonable. A really nice house that might go for 1.2M in Ladue, Clayton or Town and Country is a 10M plus house in Chicago, NYC, Miami, LA, Boston, Philly, Tornont, or the Bay area. There is a ton of culture in this town and you don't have to look far for it. The Zoo, the Gardens, Museums, Forest Park, the live music scene and top notch places to eat just off the top of my head. It's an easy city to navigate with minor traffic compared to other big cities. If you don't think this is a thing go drive a car in LA, CHI, NYC or SF at any hour of the day and try not to bash your head thru your windshield. If you are a proponent of public schools we have districts ranked nationally. If not, send your kids to MICDS, Chaminade, Burroughs etc.

It's also not a difficult travel location. I know these guys travel in luxury and don't have group C boarding passes on SW when they fly but compared to the FLA teams, the CA teams, the Western Canadian teams the travel for the Blues is a breeze. It's not as nice as the Northeast teams but it's better than many.

Any player wanting to come here has a robust Blues alumni network they can discuss living in STL. It's really frankly amazing the number of pro athletes that settle here after their careers end.

[STL fan in MN]

I’d say the Blues are currently somewhat positioned similarly to what they were the summer of 2018 when they traded for ROR and signed Bozak. They absolutely should make that sort of move again if they can. But finding that trade partner will be the hard part. And what if the player needs to waive his NTC to come here? Or he’s a RFA and due a new contract? Would he even want to come here and commit to STL for X number of years? That’s the unknown in the situation. But yes, Army should be pursuing such a deal and we have the assets available to pull it off if the right deal comes along and Army feels it’s time to pull the trigger.

You asked about players waiving their NTC to come to St. Louis. From what I’ve observed, STL is looked upon pretty favorably by many NHL players, especially those from Canada. I don’t know if European players feel the same way. Seems like a lot of the Russians gravitate to the East Coast and Florida teams.

I see cities/franchises in terms of desirable destinations in terms of tiers.

At the top you have the teams in tax advantage states, Original 6 teams and teams in the biggest cities. But these teams can fall into lower tiers if they become dumpster fires or are run poorly. But on average, they have a huge advantage.

The next tier are good teams that are run well.

Then there’s well run teams that are just ok.

Then well run teams that are bad/rebuilding.

Last tier are the dumpster fires/poorly ran teams.

Canadian teams generally fall somewhere in-between Tier 2 and 3. They have a big tax disadvantage but are also usually pretty big draws. Hard to get Americans to want to go/stay there a lot of the times.

I’d say the Blues likely just moved themselves from Tier 3 to Tier 2. But they’re borderline. They’re well run, spend to the Cap and are emerging. But STL as a city isn’t a great draw. I think it’s an underrated city, especially if you have money like pro athletes obviously do, but it’s still an obstacle Army has to work around.

IT could be a hard sell, but I think where that comes into play is with the alumni and a player like Fowler.

He was living in Anaheim, although California is a high tax state, the city of Anaheim is beautiful and a great place to live.

Gets traded here and instantly falls in love and I think has already moved his family here and wants to extend.

If I'm a player I listen to him way more than I listen to a news report that is meant to scare.

Yeah, both Army and Ott have described St. Louis as a touch city to sell initially but once they get the player here then they tend to not want to leave. So it’s that initial sell that’s the hump they have to get over. But with the Blues emerging as a solid playoff team and looking to be on the rise, they should become a better destination. So UFAs more willing to sign here and STL on fewer partial-NTC lists. And for players with full-NTCs, more willingness to waive it to come here.

STL gets a bad rap for reasons that typically aren't going to impact a pro athlete with the salaries they earn. Nobody can argue that downtown is a hellhole that needs work. There are a lot of drama queens on these forums that think you are going to get murdered and raped every time you go to a Blues game and park at 16th and Chestnut and walk. I've been to 500 plus events downtown and I've only been murdered twice. Most of the crime that gives us a lousy reputation happens in far North City. None of these guys are buying real estate near Crown Candy.

The plusses for pro athletes. The cost of living in this city is beyond reasonable. A really nice house that might go for 1.2M in Ladue, Clayton or Town and Country is a 10M plus house in Chicago, NYC, Miami, LA, Boston, Philly, Tornont, or the Bay area. There is a ton of culture in this town and you don't have to look far for it. The Zoo, the Gardens, Museums, Forest Park, the live music scene and top notch places to eat just off the top of my head. It's an easy city to navigate with minor traffic compared to other big cities. If you don't think this is a thing go drive a car in LA, CHI, NYC or SF at any hour of the day and try not to bash your head thru your windshield. If you are a proponent of public schools we have districts ranked nationally. If not, send your kids to MICDS, Chaminade, Burroughs etc.

It's also not a difficult travel location. I know these guys travel in luxury and don't have group C boarding passes on SW when they fly but compared to the FLA teams, the CA teams, the Western Canadian teams the travel for the Blues is a breeze. It's not as nice as the Northeast teams but it's better than many.

Any player wanting to come here has a robust Blues alumni network they can discuss living in STL. It's really frankly amazing the number of pro athletes that settle here after their careers end.

I agree with 100% of this. Players still seem to be a little wary moving here though.

And by here I mean there. I don’t live there anymore. After being murdered 3 times I said that was enough. It’s always the 3rd one that gets ya.

[George Zipp]

I’d say the Blues are currently somewhat positioned similarly to what they were the summer of 2018 when they traded for ROR and signed Bozak. They absolutely should make that sort of move again if they can. But finding that trade partner will be the hard part. And what if the player needs to waive his NTC to come here? Or he’s a RFA and due a new contract? Would he even want to come here and commit to STL for X number of years? That’s the unknown in the situation. But yes, Army should be pursuing such a deal and we have the assets available to pull it off if the right deal comes along and Army feels it’s time to pull the trigger.

You asked about players waiving their NTC to come to St. Louis. From what I’ve observed, STL is looked upon pretty favorably by many NHL players, especially those from Canada. I don’t know if European players feel the same way. Seems like a lot of the Russians gravitate to the East Coast and Florida teams.

I see cities/franchises in terms of desirable destinations in terms of tiers.

At the top you have the teams in tax advantage states, Original 6 teams and teams in the biggest cities. But these teams can fall into lower tiers if they become dumpster fires or are run poorly. But on average, they have a huge advantage.

The next tier are good teams that are run well.

Then there’s well run teams that are just ok.

Then well run teams that are bad/rebuilding.

Last tier are the dumpster fires/poorly ran teams.

Canadian teams generally fall somewhere in-between Tier 2 and 3. They have a big tax disadvantage but are also usually pretty big draws. Hard to get Americans to want to go/stay there a lot of the times.

I’d say the Blues likely just moved themselves from Tier 3 to Tier 2. But they’re borderline. They’re well run, spend to the Cap and are emerging. But STL as a city isn’t a great draw. I think it’s an underrated city, especially if you have money like pro athletes obviously do, but it’s still an obstacle Army has to work around.

IT could be a hard sell, but I think where that comes into play is with the alumni and a player like Fowler.

He was living in Anaheim, although California is a high tax state, the city of Anaheim is beautiful and a great place to live.

Gets traded here and instantly falls in love and I think has already moved his family here and wants to extend.

If I'm a player I listen to him way more than I listen to a news report that is meant to scare.

Yeah, both Army and Ott have described St. Louis as a touch city to sell initially but once they get the player here then they tend to not want to leave. So it’s that initial sell that’s the hump they have to get over. But with the Blues emerging as a solid playoff team and looking to be on the rise, they should become a better destination. So UFAs more willing to sign here and STL on fewer partial-NTC lists. And for players with full-NTCs, more willingness to waive it to come here.

STL gets a bad rap for reasons that typically aren't going to impact a pro athlete with the salaries they earn. Nobody can argue that downtown is a hellhole that needs work. There are a lot of drama queens on these forums that think you are going to get murdered and raped every time you go to a Blues game and park at 16th and Chestnut and walk. I've been to 500 plus events downtown and I've only been murdered twice. Most of the crime that gives us a lousy reputation happens in far North City. None of these guys are buying real estate near Crown Candy.

The plusses for pro athletes. The cost of living in this city is beyond reasonable. A really nice house that might go for 1.2M in Ladue, Clayton or Town and Country is a 10M plus house in Chicago, NYC, Miami, LA, Boston, Philly, Tornont, or the Bay area. There is a ton of culture in this town and you don't have to look far for it. The Zoo, the Gardens, Museums, Forest Park, the live music scene and top notch places to eat just off the top of my head. It's an easy city to navigate with minor traffic compared to other big cities. If you don't think this is a thing go drive a car in LA, CHI, NYC or SF at any hour of the day and try not to bash your head thru your windshield. If you are a proponent of public schools we have districts ranked nationally. If not, send your kids to MICDS, Chaminade, Burroughs etc.

It's also not a difficult travel location. I know these guys travel in luxury and don't have group C boarding passes on SW when they fly but compared to the FLA teams, the CA teams, the Western Canadian teams the travel for the Blues is a breeze. It's not as nice as the Northeast teams but it's better than many.

Any player wanting to come here has a robust Blues alumni network they can discuss living in STL. It's really frankly amazing the number of pro athletes that settle here after their careers end.

I agree with 100% of this. Players still seem to be a little wary moving here though.

And by here I mean there. I don’t live there anymore. After being murdered 3 times I said that was enough. It’s always the 3rd one that gets ya.

Are there other places I'd rather live? Difficult for me to say since I'm rooted here since the early 90s. I love NYC. We go to the US Open Tennis every year and while there we hit a play (because I'm a nice husband) and we eat like kings and queens and we explore and walk and walk and walk some more and go to MOMA and all that NYC has to offer. One of my favorite parts of that trip is the return plane ticket home.

I've lived in LA. The traffic alone is enough to never even want to visit again. I've had multiple work projects in the Bay area. The traffic and costs, which even though I don't pay are still ridiculous, again, not for me. I've had multiple work projects where you live and have spent a ton of time there. I really enjoy the Twin Cities and I'm weird in that I like the cold and the fact that I can occasionally see the Northern Lights is a huge plus. But the Twin Cities are a hell of a lot more spread out than STL. Getting to MSP is a pain. Traffic is certainly worse there than here. Otherwise it's a wonderful place to be.

I guess I'm a creature of habit and my habits in STL are just fine for this point in my life. Living here has allowed me to easily pay for two kids to go thru college (one State one very much private and obnoxiously expensive). I don't know if I would have had that luxury if I lived in Miami, State taxes or not.

[blues2112]

I guess if the right young impact player came along....but teams don't give up their sure-fires very often.

However, I'd save the big swing for when we are a more legitimate contender, and we know what our 1 missing piece is. In that situation too, when you trade away your Round 1, you have confidence that it will be a late Round 1, not TOP 5.

Like 35-goal-scorers in their mid-20s?

[netboy65]

I have no issue at all trading a prospect no matter how highly regarded (unless they are a can't miss elite prospect) for an established young player.

Same for me, but as you suggest, for an established, younger player. Makes no sense to trade for a guy in his 30’s at this point. We have need at center and right D….. probably like 90% of the teams in the league!

Yep, I'd say right now #2c and a top 4 RHD are the hardest positions to fill in the NHL right now.

#2c is incredibly difficult because the salaries are all over the place and what makes a good #2c?

What point range do you expect from them and what salary range gets you that point production? Last year saw a massive run on #2c and it was going to about 7 million, so with the cap going up that might be what Army is looking at. You don't want to overpay for a 3rd line center to make them a 2nd line center. It's an incredibly difficult position to fill right now.

The biggest problem with RHD is there are just so few of them. Everyone lately appears to be a lefty and there is a glut of those in the NHL. If I'm raising a hockey player I'm making him a righty as he likely just keeps going because there are so few.

I wonder why it's that way? About 90% of people are right handed. The dominant hand in a righty is lowest to the ice and controls the stick most.

Actually, if you stick handle correctly, you’re using your top hand just as much if not more than your bottom hand. THAT is why there’s so few righties in the pro ranks. In Canada and Europe especially, kids are taught to have their dominant hand on the top of the stick for dexterity purposes. The bottom hand is used more for power. It’s easier to improve power than dexterity in your non-dominant hand.

Yep, all of this. In the US a lot more kids grow up also playing baseball so they hold their hockey stick the same way they hold a baseball bat, Canadians and Europeans don't play baseball on nearly the same level as Americans so their righties shoot left, and their lefties shoot right.

I’m 71, and when I was a teen, righthanded Canadian kids were taught to shoot lefthanded since you were taught to put your weight on the front foot while shooting. When you shoot lefty, your weight is on the dominant right skate.

Nowadays, you see players shoot with the weight on either foot, so it’s less of an issue. I could never get the hang of shooting left because I’m very right hand dominant.

I eventually quit playing defense and played in goal (my favorite and better position anyway). Unlike modern, proper technique, I still shot and passed forehanded/right handed even with a goal stick and used it backhanded on my left side, much like CuJo used to do. (I found it harder to find goal sticks without a big curve — had to order flat goal sticks!)

I’m right handed and I just naturally grabbed a left handed stick. It felt more natural