Blooms lineup bets on the existing "core" in the near term

[Carp4Cy]

the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.

One carp

D. May/$12,000,000

+

$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option

ok right, but still we could easily be the lowest "active payroll" going into 2026 even IF we sign someone else.

No doubt, the payroll as it stands today is around $106M and heading lower once NADO, Donny, JoJo and ???? are dealt.

but what is the payroll of the 26 man? That's what matters to the product on the field and the recurring cost to the org.

Anyone who has been traded is a sunk cost now.

$106M - $24M to Boston for Gray & WillyC = $82M actual on-the-roster player payroll which includes estimates for the ARBs.

So it could be even lower than that if we non-tender or trade any of the ARB players? Or if Noot spends the whole year on the DL and doesn't reach the 26 man.

[Carp4Cy]

Thing is the lineup in 2026 is irrelevant. That is the year they try many young players to see who is real and who isn't. And find out where there is a hole that can not be filled from within.

Except we just did that in 25, and to an extent in 24. Outside of JJW, we already know what we've got.

How do we expect that giving the same players, more chances while being coached by the exact same staff is going to suddenly return a diferent result?

[Goldfan]

the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.

One carp

D. May/$12,000,000

+

$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option

ok right, but still we could easily be the lowest "active payroll" going into 2026 even IF we sign someone else.

No doubt, the payroll as it stands today is around $106M and heading lower once NADO, Donny, JoJo and ???? are dealt.

but what is the payroll of the 26 man? That's what matters to the product on the field and the recurring cost to the org.

Anyone who has been traded is a sunk cost now.

$106M - $24M to Boston for Gray & WillyC = $82M actual on-the-roster player payroll which includes estimates for the ARBs.

Just dont refer to this as a salary dump…..BDW accountants here get very upset at that
It’s not a salary Dump
It’s not a salary Dump
It just so happens that ALL the players we signed in the last couple years and thought enough to bring them in……..we don’t really want now and won’t really get much in return for them….you know because they’re old, not that great, and make a lot of money….but the money we save by trading them can in NO WAY BE USED TO BRING IN BETTER PLAYERS……we must develop better players……better players from the outside using 90-100mil wouldn’t be fair to all the young Allstars we have in the system…..and by ‘28,29,’30 perhaps some might be at Busch….no guarantees. The Guarantee is that 90-100 mil will be in BDW pocket. And for all those that subscribe to BDW sob story about local TV money…..keep in mind in ‘25 he ONLY was down 17mil from the original contract. So you do the math. Payroll needs to be reduced 100mil because of 17mil Local TV shortfall

[Shady]

the plan can't be to further reduce payroll. After Nado, we have no 8 figure contracts left.

One carp

D. May/$12,000,000

+

$20,000,000 mutual 2027 option

What does a mutual option entail? Does it mean both parties have to approve?

[AZ_Cardsfan]

Thing is the lineup in 2026 is irrelevant. That is the year they try many young players to see who is real and who isn't. And find out where there is a hole that can not be filled from within.

Except we just did that in 25, and to an extent in 24. Outside of JJW, we already know what we've got.

How do we expect that giving the same players, more chances while being coached by the exact same staff is going to suddenly return a diferent result?

True to some extent. But once again this is what will happen in 2026. Only more so meaning Saggese probably gets 500 ABs. And Crooks, Fermin, Scott. Or until they fail with extended playing time not played, sat, played sent down. Brought up. They will know they get a shot so play well every day and don't tighten up if you go 0 for 9.

Also more looks at pitching. No one will be blocked there.

Frustrating but it is what it is. After 2026 unless it is total failure by too many of the kids they will need to have a firm idea of many positions and start adding veterans to fill the blank spots. If total failure hope it gets figured out in 2027 but I really think they need to have some idea before then.

[82birds]

If we assume anyone without an 8 figure contract (sorry Nado) is keepable OR tradable - then after 2026, anyone still on this roster who isn't making progress is Blooms problem. Who does he keep and who will we look back and wish he'd traded before they lost whatever remained of their trade value?

Gorman - 426 Games 3.5 career WAR 99 OPS+
Walker - 279 G, -2.7 WAR 88OPS+
Nootbaar - 527 G, 9.3 Career WAR. 109 OPS+ OK that looks decent on paper, but which was is he trending?
Herrera - 203 G, 4 WAR, 127 OPS+ - does he build on this and become a true plus player or is 19 HRs his ceiling?
Burly - 414 G, 2.2 career WAR
Winn - 316 G, 6.5 WAR, outstanding rookie year - have to reasonably assume there's more upside there.
Scott - 191 G, 2.2 WAR
Pages - 180 G, 2.2 WAR

so that's what we have right now - 1 good but not AS yet, some downright awful, several are just pedestrian. All have had more than 162 games tryouts. No one in double digits for career, no one above 4, except Winn. Are we being irrational to just hope and pray and see what we've got for another year and expect that 5 of these 8 can just magically double their production of prior years? And if so, where is the change coming from? Not Oli's MLB staff that hasn't changed from last year's massive failure at the plate. We were 29th in HRs. And our HR leader Willson just got traded.

Compare to recent real hitting talents we've developed:
Pujols - enough said
Molina - 14 WAR by age 28, gg
Carp - 10.4 WAR by age 28, in only 3 seasons.
Drew - 18 WAR by age 27, then traded for Waino
Renteria - 22 WAR by age 27, 17 of those for the Cards, gg
DeJong - 10.6 WAR by age 25 before falling off a cliff
Oneil - 1 year wonder but 6.4 WAR in 1 year at age 26 when healthy - where are our 6 WAR 26 yo's? (not burly)
Jon Jay - 7 WAR his first 3 years with 113 OPS+
Rasmus - 7.4 WAR in 2.5 years before being traded for a WS ring. 110 OPS+
Wong 16.5 WAR by age 28, gg
Bader 11.8 WAR by 28, gg
Edman - 17 WAR by age 28
Donovan - 11 WAR in first 4 seasons, gg

Bloom is stocking up on pitching prospects. Where is the future offense going to come from?
We are excited about Josh Baez maybe, but so far his best year is a 20 HR .884 OPS at age 22. Does that project as a plus MOTOB or just as a servicable starter?
for comps Mike Sirota OPS'd 1.068 so far in the minors. Andy Pages was over .900 and 1.000 at AA/AAA. Heck Walker was over 1.000 at A and .898 at AA at only age 20 and we know how well that's projected into the Majors. Clearly we need more than 2-3 legit hitting prospects including JJW. What does Bloom do for now, and what opportunities will we regret missing?

LOL
pedestrian
good word for several of those guys.


pedestrian AND awful
describes he-gone MO

[82birds]

Thing is the lineup in 2026 is irrelevant. That is the year they try many young players to see who is real and who isn't. And find out where there is a hole that can not be filled from within.

holes, plural

[dugoutrex]

Thing is the lineup in 2026 is irrelevant. That is the year they try many young players to see who is real and who isn't. And find out where there is a hole that can not be filled from within.

holes, plural

yup, many, many holes!

[AZ_Cardsfan]

Thing is the lineup in 2026 is irrelevant. That is the year they try many young players to see who is real and who isn't. And find out where there is a hole that can not be filled from within.

holes, plural

Probably. Right now I'd feel:

SS - filled Winn
1B - filled between Burleson or Herrera
2B - probably filled Weatherholdt
3B - hmmmm
Catcher - filled. We have a LOT of might bes and one should pan out
OF - ouch. I mean there is a lot of potential. And has been for several years. Yet not one of them would I write in as owning a job. That needs to see some shake out in 2026. Who can stay healthy. Who can hit. Who can hit PRODUCTIVELY. We can't have a weak OF like the last few years.

Good news is signing average level LF/RF guys who can hit "enough" isn't a massive mountain when it's time to fill holes.

[Carp4Cy]

Thing is the lineup in 2026 is irrelevant. That is the year they try many young players to see who is real and who isn't. And find out where there is a hole that can not be filled from within.

holes, plural

Probably. Right now I'd feel:

SS - filled Winn
1B - filled between Burleson or Herrera
2B - probably filled Weatherholdt
3B - hmmmm
Catcher - filled. We have a LOT of might bes and one should pan out
OF - ouch. I mean there is a lot of potential. And has been for several years. Yet not one of them would I write in as owning a job. That needs to see some shake out in 2026. Who can stay healthy. Who can hit. Who can hit PRODUCTIVELY. We can't have a weak OF like the last few years.

Good news is signing average level LF/RF guys who can hit "enough" isn't a massive mountain when it's time to fill holes.

trouble is, none of these guys are actual Plus bats. See their career WARs. We need to not only fill some holes, but develop or acquire multiple actual star performers. We still get excited about prospects who project to become "serviceable starters". But Winn is not the Next Bobby Witt. And Baez is Not the next Judge or even the next Edmonds or Beltran. We can keep those guys, but we need the next level to get anywhere. And no one here is good enough to block someone on that next level - so if they become available - there's room.

I'll reserve judgement on JJW until he shows what he can do, but still he's only one guy, and almost certainly not a #4 type.

[AZ_Cardsfan]

Thing is the lineup in 2026 is irrelevant. That is the year they try many young players to see who is real and who isn't. And find out where there is a hole that can not be filled from within.

holes, plural

Probably. Right now I'd feel:

SS - filled Winn
1B - filled between Burleson or Herrera
2B - probably filled Weatherholdt
3B - hmmmm
Catcher - filled. We have a LOT of might bes and one should pan out
OF - ouch. I mean there is a lot of potential. And has been for several years. Yet not one of them would I write in as owning a job. That needs to see some shake out in 2026. Who can stay healthy. Who can hit. Who can hit PRODUCTIVELY. We can't have a weak OF like the last few years.

Good news is signing average level LF/RF guys who can hit "enough" isn't a massive mountain when it's time to fill holes.

trouble is, none of these guys are actual Plus bats. See their career WARs. We need to not only fill some holes, but develop or acquire multiple actual star performers. We still get excited about prospects who project to become "serviceable starters". But Winn is not the Next Bobby Witt. And Baez is Not the next Judge or even the next Edmonds or Beltran. We can keep those guys, but we need the next level to get anywhere. And no one here is good enough to block someone on that next level - so if they become available - there's room.

I'll reserve judgement on JJW until he shows what he can do, but still he's only one guy, and almost certainly not a #4 type.

OK I get where you are coming from. I want to win a World Series. And having an elite bat or two really helps. Also hard to scout and get and expensive to buy. Maybe they will need to sign a high end bat at some point and pay the price. Maybe one of the kids does emerge. Do not know and it isn't easy to get them.

It is also possible to win with a team where every one hits and fields well with a deep roster and higher end pitching staff. Easier to construct too. Then if you get lucky and one of them DOES become an elite bat gravy on top.

BTW finding that elite hitter is one of the reasons I am so gung ho on dealing Donovan to get at least one prospect who MIGHT become that.

But in the meantime the work in the trenches is to add as many high end prospects of all kinds to the roster and hope to strike gold. The only alternative is to have gobs of money and buy lots of elite free agents

[11WSChamps]

Thing is the lineup in 2026 is irrelevant. That is the year they try many young players to see who is real and who isn't. And find out where there is a hole that can not be filled from within.

Except we just did that in 25, and to an extent in 24. Outside of JJW, we already know what we've got.

How do we expect that giving the same players, more chances while being coached by the exact same staff is going to suddenly return a diferent result?

Because that's what management is telling them to think.

[Goldfan]

A great amount of research and typing to summarize:

This is a below avg middling (bleep) lineup. There 8 words did it.

[Carp4Cy]

Thing is the lineup in 2026 is irrelevant. That is the year they try many young players to see who is real and who isn't. And find out where there is a hole that can not be filled from within.

holes, plural

Probably. Right now I'd feel:

SS - filled Winn
1B - filled between Burleson or Herrera
2B - probably filled Weatherholdt
3B - hmmmm
Catcher - filled. We have a LOT of might bes and one should pan out
OF - ouch. I mean there is a lot of potential. And has been for several years. Yet not one of them would I write in as owning a job. That needs to see some shake out in 2026. Who can stay healthy. Who can hit. Who can hit PRODUCTIVELY. We can't have a weak OF like the last few years.

Good news is signing average level LF/RF guys who can hit "enough" isn't a massive mountain when it's time to fill holes.

trouble is, none of these guys are actual Plus bats. See their career WARs. We need to not only fill some holes, but develop or acquire multiple actual star performers. We still get excited about prospects who project to become "serviceable starters". But Winn is not the Next Bobby Witt. And Baez is Not the next Judge or even the next Edmonds or Beltran. We can keep those guys, but we need the next level to get anywhere. And no one here is good enough to block someone on that next level - so if they become available - there's room.

I'll reserve judgement on JJW until he shows what he can do, but still he's only one guy, and almost certainly not a #4 type.

OK I get where you are coming from. I want to win a World Series. And having an elite bat or two really helps. Also hard to scout and get and expensive to buy. Maybe they will need to sign a high end bat at some point and pay the price. Maybe one of the kids does emerge. Do not know and it isn't easy to get them.

It is also possible to win with a team where every one hits and fields well with a deep roster and higher end pitching staff. Easier to construct too. Then if you get lucky and one of them DOES become an elite bat gravy on top.

BTW finding that elite hitter is one of the reasons I am so gung ho on dealing Donovan to get at least one prospect who MIGHT become that.

But in the meantime the work in the trenches is to add as many high end prospects of all kinds to the roster and hope to strike gold. The only alternative is to have gobs of money and buy lots of elite free agents

Outside of Pujols and yadi, that majority of our stars have come via a trade. McGwire, Renteria, Edmonds, Holliday, Rolen. Wainwright was the only prospect we trade for in memory that has had a Hall of Fame caliber career.

I’m OK with trades. Just need to make sure we’re getting the right return. Something highly likely of hitting or already proven instead of low odds lottery picks and salary relief. I kind of think the type of guys be traded for Helsley would be worth more packaged with somebody for a player We really need instead of hoarding long shots and finding we don’t have enough playing time at AAA or AA.

[ecleme22]

Thing is the lineup in 2026 is irrelevant. That is the year they try many young players to see who is real and who isn't. And find out where there is a hole that can not be filled from within.

holes, plural

Probably. Right now I'd feel:

SS - filled Winn
1B - filled between Burleson or Herrera
2B - probably filled Weatherholdt
3B - hmmmm
Catcher - filled. We have a LOT of might bes and one should pan out
OF - ouch. I mean there is a lot of potential. And has been for several years. Yet not one of them would I write in as owning a job. That needs to see some shake out in 2026. Who can stay healthy. Who can hit. Who can hit PRODUCTIVELY. We can't have a weak OF like the last few years.

Good news is signing average level LF/RF guys who can hit "enough" isn't a massive mountain when it's time to fill holes.

trouble is, none of these guys are actual Plus bats. See their career WARs. We need to not only fill some holes, but develop or acquire multiple actual star performers. We still get excited about prospects who project to become "serviceable starters". But Winn is not the Next Bobby Witt. And Baez is Not the next Judge or even the next Edmonds or Beltran. We can keep those guys, but we need the next level to get anywhere. And no one here is good enough to block someone on that next level - so if they become available - there's room.

I'll reserve judgement on JJW until he shows what he can do, but still he's only one guy, and almost certainly not a #4 type.

OK I get where you are coming from. I want to win a World Series. And having an elite bat or two really helps. Also hard to scout and get and expensive to buy. Maybe they will need to sign a high end bat at some point and pay the price. Maybe one of the kids does emerge. Do not know and it isn't easy to get them.

It is also possible to win with a team where every one hits and fields well with a deep roster and higher end pitching staff. Easier to construct too. Then if you get lucky and one of them DOES become an elite bat gravy on top.

BTW finding that elite hitter is one of the reasons I am so gung ho on dealing Donovan to get at least one prospect who MIGHT become that.

But in the meantime the work in the trenches is to add as many high end prospects of all kinds to the roster and hope to strike gold. The only alternative is to have gobs of money and buy lots of elite free agents

Outside of Pujols and yadi, that majority of our stars have come via a trade. McGwire, Renteria, Edmonds, Holliday, Rolen. Wainwright was the only prospect we trade for in memory that has had a Hall of Fame caliber career.

I’m OK with trades. Just need to make sure we’re getting the right return. Something highly likely of hitting or already proven instead of low odds lottery picks and salary relief. I kind of think the type of guys be traded for Helsley would be worth more packaged with somebody for a player We really need instead of hoarding long shots and finding we don’t have enough playing time at AAA or AA.

1) you’re totally right: the prospects we’ve acquired can be flipped.
2) I think you and other CTers are scarred by recent Mo trade returns (Libby, Saggese, etc.).

Teams with good scouting don’t have as many longshot…

[Goldfan]

Thing is the lineup in 2026 is irrelevant. That is the year they try many young players to see who is real and who isn't. And find out where there is a hole that can not be filled from within.

holes, plural

Probably. Right now I'd feel:

SS - filled Winn
1B - filled between Burleson or Herrera
2B - probably filled Weatherholdt
3B - hmmmm
Catcher - filled. We have a LOT of might bes and one should pan out
OF - ouch. I mean there is a lot of potential. And has been for several years. Yet not one of them would I write in as owning a job. That needs to see some shake out in 2026. Who can stay healthy. Who can hit. Who can hit PRODUCTIVELY. We can't have a weak OF like the last few years.

Good news is signing average level LF/RF guys who can hit "enough" isn't a massive mountain when it's time to fill holes.

trouble is, none of these guys are actual Plus bats. See their career WARs. We need to not only fill some holes, but develop or acquire multiple actual star performers. We still get excited about prospects who project to become "serviceable starters". But Winn is not the Next Bobby Witt. And Baez is Not the next Judge or even the next Edmonds or Beltran. We can keep those guys, but we need the next level to get anywhere. And no one here is good enough to block someone on that next level - so if they become available - there's room.

I'll reserve judgement on JJW until he shows what he can do, but still he's only one guy, and almost certainly not a #4 type.

OK I get where you are coming from. I want to win a World Series. And having an elite bat or two really helps. Also hard to scout and get and expensive to buy. Maybe they will need to sign a high end bat at some point and pay the price. Maybe one of the kids does emerge. Do not know and it isn't easy to get them.

It is also possible to win with a team where every one hits and fields well with a deep roster and higher end pitching staff. Easier to construct too. Then if you get lucky and one of them DOES become an elite bat gravy on top.

BTW finding that elite hitter is one of the reasons I am so gung ho on dealing Donovan to get at least one prospect who MIGHT become that.

But in the meantime the work in the trenches is to add as many high end prospects of all kinds to the roster and hope to strike gold. The only alternative is to have gobs of money and buy lots of elite free agents

Outside of Pujols and yadi, that majority of our stars have come via a trade. McGwire, Renteria, Edmonds, Holliday, Rolen. Wainwright was the only prospect we trade for in memory that has had a Hall of Fame caliber career.

I’m OK with trades. Just need to make sure we’re getting the right return. Something highly likely of hitting or already proven instead of low odds lottery picks and salary relief. I kind of think the type of guys be traded for Helsley would be worth more packaged with somebody for a player We really need instead of hoarding long shots and finding we don’t have enough playing time at AAA or AA.

1) you’re totally right: the prospects we’ve acquired can be flipped.
2) I think you and other CTers are scarred by recent Mo trade returns (Libby, Saggese, etc.).

Teams with good scouting don’t have as many longshot…

EC, most of your strategy involves flipping players. So a question…..If this team is rebuilding and needs Bodies(prospects)why would flipping them be the outcome if they were any good…..and if they’re not very good why would another team want them? You seem to have HOLES in your strategy.