Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am
Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?
Poor player development and talent evaluation.
I think it falls in the Player Development as well.
For Gorman, He is pretty much as advertised. Big power, Big Strikeouts.
Carlson, no clue what happened there.
Walker, the organization failed him. They started messing with his swing to generate more HR, rather than being content with high average and fair power.
Could it just be as simple as the MO org was pumping these fellas and they’re not that good
We’ve seen a few good months out of all those names and literally YEARS of bad….but the consensus is that something will click and they’ll become much better players??? They’re still learning?? They’re young??? Why???
Greatness is a million little things born from physicality, reaction to failure, well being, luck, character and fortitude to mention a few things. Greatness follows certain players and eludes others with solid starts. Alcohol and drugs takes a toll on many players seemingly set to succeed. Doubt and fear undermines others. We can blame a poor development system, and there is some truth, but how do you explain Donovan?
The athlete has to want to succeed; has to work diligently and needs good measure of both luck and good health. Failing any one of those ingredients can undermine the "sure thing"..... I would hope that a certain amount of realism is built into every young prodigy early in their professional career. When you find yourself tossed into the mix with the best and the brightest, expect to fail... often. Learn from the experience, figure out how to bounce back and never give up.
The book isn't written on Walker yet. Not even Winn, Burleson or Herrera. Stuff happens.
hugeCardfan wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 11:08 am
Greatness is a million little things born from physicality, reaction to failure, well being, luck, character and fortitude to mention a few things. Greatness follows certain players and eludes others with solid starts. Alcohol and drugs takes a toll on many players seemingly set to succeed. Doubt and fear undermines others. We can blame a poor development system, and there is some truth, but how do you explain Donovan?
The athlete has to want to succeed; has to work diligently and needs good measure of both luck and good health. Failing any one of those ingredients can undermine the "sure thing"..... I would hope that a certain amount of realism is built into every young prodigy early in their professional career. When you find yourself tossed into the mix with the best and the brightest, expect to fail... often. Learn from the experience, figure out how to bounce back and never give up.
The book isn't written on Walker yet. Not even Winn, Burleson or Herrera. Stuff happens.
A good example is Donovan. 7th round pick, but his workouts in the off season are really something. He's worked very hard to be a better player. Gorman and Walker could learn from that.
Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am
Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?
Dah!
Winn (great glove/arm), Burleson (solid hitting skills) and Hererra (elite hitting skills) are naturally talented and even Mo's horrible minor league (lack of ) development system couldn't harm their natural skills.
Carlson, Walker and Gorman all three have many flaws in their game and were in need of a C. Bloom like minor league player development system to even have a chance of being (L-T) successful in MLB.
They lacked the tools in their tool box to overcome when the league made adjustments after getting a book on their weaknesses.
Pretty simple
BDWJr/Mo FAILED the minor league system terribly and now are paying the price for it.
Agree 90%, Burleson is also an elite hitter. These three can't be messed up, the born with it, to strong.
Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am
Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?
A variety of reasons. Some may be mistake hitters and MLB pitchers make fewer mistakes. MLB teams also spend more resources watch video of players to find vulnerabilities. Some are able to adjust and some aren't.
sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:51 am
Very simple. It has nothing to do with the human. It’s all about natural numbers.
Formula- put as many into the system as it can hold. Let ‘em play. Thin them out. Continue the process until complete. End state- 3 make it, three don’t. As to who by name, not relevant.
Only about 10 to 15 percent of players who reach the minor leagues actually make it to the majors. This statistic highlights the competitive nature of the sport and the rigorous standards that players must meet to succeed. With that mind is much more difficult to become a good Major League player.
Good write.
But the % of draftees that make the majors is higher for 1st and 2nd round draftees.
only about 70% of first round picks make it to the majors.
and thats just make it to the majors. not actually succeed. tyler greene was a 1st round puck that madenitnto majors even though he only played parts of like 3 seasons as a bnech player.,
the percent that are actually impactful players is far lower.
and keep in mind part of the reason for why 1st round picks make it at such a high clip is solely because of draft status.
for example matt koperniak wpuld have probably been called to the majors in 2023 based on his AAA numbers that year if he was a 1st round puck while guys that are lower draft picks have to gp well abpve and beyond to make majors and wpuld never skip aaa ljke we had jordan walker do cuz teams are more invested in the giys who were rated top prospects so they get better chances ehich causes part of the disparity why 1st rpunders make it to majors just as much as lower level guys.
and while im not going to deny that there are more impact players from top rounds theres also just a ton of busts amd a prospect is still statistically more likely tp be a bust than a hit
Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am
Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?
Every player is of course different and there can be a multitude of reasons why a player fails or succeeds.
And the reasons can apply to the player and/or the organization/coaching.
Generally prospects are rated mostly on physical talent.
The mental approach/baseball IQ are usually not rated as often.
I can only watch a player perform and have zero inside insight into his mental approach/baseball IQ.
Question:
Does Gorman seem to have a strong mental approach??
Not trying to just pick on him but my guess would be NO.
I always thought Carlson was overrated. Being a coaches son he developed early and reached his max potential. This made him look great in HS and in the minors but eventually caught up to him in the majors. I thought he would be an average major leaguer at best.
Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am
Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?
Dah!
Winn (great glove/arm), Burleson (solid hitting skills) and Hererra (elite hitting skills) are naturally talented and even Mo's horrible minor league (lack of ) development system couldn't harm their natural skills.
Carlson, Walker and Gorman all three have many flaws in their game and were in need of a C. Bloom like minor league player development system to even have a chance of being (L-T) successful in MLB.
They lacked the tools in their tool box to overcome when the league made adjustments after getting a book on their weaknesses.
Pretty simple
BDWJr/Mo FAILED the minor league system terribly and now are paying the price for it.
Agree 90%, Burleson is also an elite hitter. These three can't be messed up, the born with it, to strong.
Cranny wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 07:44 am
Can anyone figure out why guys coming through the system like Winn, Burleson, and Herrera have evidently made a successful jump from AAA to MLB (knock on wood) and guys like Carlson, Walker, and Gorman have petered out?
Too much pressure on the top prospects maybe.
They aren't able to mentally adjust to the expectations.
The successful group you mentioned had no major expectations.
I think Winn was pretty highly regarded, and Herrera was touted as our catcher of the future.
What I’ve seen with Masyn Winn, his first full season, he was just trying to make contact and not trying to do anything special. He was hitting around .280 at that time. Then toward the end of the year., he started to try and hit for more power, and his batting average dropped. Last year he stated coming out of Spring Training that he was going to seek more home runs. He struggled from the get go!
He finally readjusted and started using the whole field again, and his average started rising again. Coincidentally he also hit a few more homers, but not because he was trying to. Because he was using the whole field, pitchers were trying to work him more inside and he just jumped on those pitches with some success. If not for his bad knee, Winn would have probably hit closer to that .280 mark. His success was his ability to adjust and just let things come to him, not predetermining what he was going to do in each at bat.
I think that’s the way Herrera hits as well.
Gorman has homer on his brain in every at bat!
Walker has been stubborn in his approach to try and do things the way he always has done them. He’s been very reluctant to change and adjust to Major League pitching.
I still hold out hope for Walker, it sounds like he finally has realized his way isn’t going to work, and is now willing to accept help.
I have my doubts about Gorman that he’ll ever change!
Winn actually hit worse the second half of last year.
He hit 3 HRs the last 4 months of a 6 month season
That was due to the knee pain. In his interview with Jim Hayes, Oli stated how badly the knee was effecting Winn in the second half.
He said he would check with Masyn everyday just see if he was good to go that day or not. He also pretty much said the reason he kept playing at all was to try and win the gold glove.
I personally look for Masyn to hit a lot better this coming season. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Lol. Of course it was...but no concern that he's missed time to a back and now knee issues at age 23-24
kyace wrote: ↑18 Dec 2025 12:49 pm
I always thought Carlson was overrated. Being a coaches son he developed early and reached his max potential. This made him look great in HS and in the minors but eventually caught up to him in the majors. I thought he would be an average major leaguer at best.
Essentially you are saying he peaked too early. Let's face it too. Baseball is a game of adapting. He probably had been groomed at an early age for baseball in a way that led to success to ger him into the majors, but led him to getting stuck. Pitchers adapted to him, but he was was so set in his ways and had reached the limit of those ways and didnt have the talent or discipline to adapt.
In other words, a solid floor at best vs. a talented multi-tool player.
