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Goldfan wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 09:03 am

moose-and-squirrel wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 08:56 am

sikeston bulldog2 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 08:55 am

Goldfan wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 08:51 am

nighthawk wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 15:03 pm Schwarber appears to be on the Darrell Evans career track, except that Evans didn't strike out nearly as much. But they both have the ability to walk and hit homers. Had Evans played today, I wonder if they'd lead him off. Adam Dunn is another. He might lead off today.

Stupid baseball. You have a guy who hits over 50HR but waste at least one PA with no one on and all the other PA hitting behind the low OBP of the lineup.

That is a valid point reference rbis. He leads off. Why.

gets him more AB's.. not saying I agree with it, but..

with the 1-hitter averaging around 750 PAs vs. the 3-hitter's ~714 PAs per 162 games
So 35 more PA over the season. How many RBI ops missed?? I guarantee it’s much more impactful than 35 more PA
Jeff Kent was just elected to the HOF because he bat behind Bonds in the middle of SF order, do we think he would’ve put up that production Hitting leadoff?

Here is a difference. Leading off is against the wind up. With runners on base it’s off the stretch. Maybe he hits one better or worse.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 08:16 am

ecleme22 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 08:07 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 04:19 am

ecleme22 wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 21:13 pm

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 21:06 pm

greyhawk wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 14:00 pm

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 12:16 pm Pirates "made an offer". I wonder if their fans think they seriously were trying to sign Schwarber.

33 yr old dh's who sign for big $$ on a perennial losing team are like guys that count their poker chips at the table... he still wants to win.

He would have been a burden in a couple years on the Pirates. Better that they didn't sign him.

Just asking: You think Schwarber is done at 35?

You think he has 2026 and 2027, but will fall off a table in 2028 and 2029?

Maybe two more years of what Schwarber has averaged over the last five (2021-2025):

.232/.353/.514, 1 HR every 15 PA or so, 2.75 fWAR per 600 PA as a DH

Then a year or two of a bit less than that:

.220/.335/.475, maybe 2.0 fWAR per 600 PA as a DH

Then down.

The Phillies would probably be doing pretty well to get that. I don't expect him to be worth $150 million over the life of the deal based on his total production, but if the Phillies can win a WS with him, it will have been worth it to them.

Removing the COVID season, KS has been pretty consistent, with a range of OPS from .817 to .928.

Unless he totally pulls a Matt Carpenter, I think he's BB rate and power will keep him productive for a while.

Remaining in Philly helps because there is already that comfort level.

If you take his last five years, it wouldn't be at all surprising if he, for example, had:

2026 = 2025 (4.9 fWAR over 724 PA)
2027 = 2024 (3.3 fWAR over 692 PA)
2028 = 2021 (2.7 fWAR over 471 PA, injury)
2029 = 2022 (2.2 fWAR over 669 PA)
2030 = 2023 (0.9 fWAR over 720 PA)

That would, IMO, be a really good outcome for Philadelphia.

That would mean he would equal his 28-32 production over the course of his 33-37 years. Yeah, it would be a really good outcome.

C-Unit wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 09:06 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 08:16 am

ecleme22 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 08:07 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 04:19 am

ecleme22 wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 21:13 pm

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 21:06 pm

greyhawk wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 14:00 pm

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 12:16 pm Pirates "made an offer". I wonder if their fans think they seriously were trying to sign Schwarber.

33 yr old dh's who sign for big $$ on a perennial losing team are like guys that count their poker chips at the table... he still wants to win.

He would have been a burden in a couple years on the Pirates. Better that they didn't sign him.

Just asking: You think Schwarber is done at 35?

You think he has 2026 and 2027, but will fall off a table in 2028 and 2029?

Maybe two more years of what Schwarber has averaged over the last five (2021-2025):

.232/.353/.514, 1 HR every 15 PA or so, 2.75 fWAR per 600 PA as a DH

Then a year or two of a bit less than that:

.220/.335/.475, maybe 2.0 fWAR per 600 PA as a DH

Then down.

The Phillies would probably be doing pretty well to get that. I don't expect him to be worth $150 million over the life of the deal based on his total production, but if the Phillies can win a WS with him, it will have been worth it to them.

Removing the COVID season, KS has been pretty consistent, with a range of OPS from .817 to .928.

Unless he totally pulls a Matt Carpenter, I think he's BB rate and power will keep him productive for a while.

Remaining in Philly helps because there is already that comfort level.

If you take his last five years, it wouldn't be at all surprising if he, for example, had:

2026 = 2025 (4.9 fWAR over 724 PA)
2027 = 2024 (3.3 fWAR over 692 PA)
2028 = 2021 (2.7 fWAR over 471 PA, injury)
2029 = 2022 (2.2 fWAR over 669 PA)
2030 = 2023 (0.9 fWAR over 720 PA)

That would, IMO, be a really good outcome for Philadelphia.

That would mean he would equal his 28-32 production over the course of his 33-37 years. Yeah, it would be a really good outcome.

It would work out to about $10 million per fWAR, which would be about FA market rate. But "breaking even" is a really good outcome.

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 10:31 am

C-Unit wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 09:06 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 08:16 am

ecleme22 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 08:07 am

mattmitchl44 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 04:19 am

ecleme22 wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 21:13 pm

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 21:06 pm

greyhawk wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 14:00 pm

ScotchMIrish wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 12:16 pm Pirates "made an offer". I wonder if their fans think they seriously were trying to sign Schwarber.

33 yr old dh's who sign for big $$ on a perennial losing team are like guys that count their poker chips at the table... he still wants to win.

He would have been a burden in a couple years on the Pirates. Better that they didn't sign him.

Just asking: You think Schwarber is done at 35?

You think he has 2026 and 2027, but will fall off a table in 2028 and 2029?

Maybe two more years of what Schwarber has averaged over the last five (2021-2025):

.232/.353/.514, 1 HR every 15 PA or so, 2.75 fWAR per 600 PA as a DH

Then a year or two of a bit less than that:

.220/.335/.475, maybe 2.0 fWAR per 600 PA as a DH

Then down.

The Phillies would probably be doing pretty well to get that. I don't expect him to be worth $150 million over the life of the deal based on his total production, but if the Phillies can win a WS with him, it will have been worth it to them.

Removing the COVID season, KS has been pretty consistent, with a range of OPS from .817 to .928.

Unless he totally pulls a Matt Carpenter, I think he's BB rate and power will keep him productive for a while.

Remaining in Philly helps because there is already that comfort level.

If you take his last five years, it wouldn't be at all surprising if he, for example, had:

2026 = 2025 (4.9 fWAR over 724 PA)
2027 = 2024 (3.3 fWAR over 692 PA)
2028 = 2021 (2.7 fWAR over 471 PA, injury)
2029 = 2022 (2.2 fWAR over 669 PA)
2030 = 2023 (0.9 fWAR over 720 PA)

That would, IMO, be a really good outcome for Philadelphia.

That would mean he would equal his 28-32 production over the course of his 33-37 years. Yeah, it would be a really good outcome.

It would work out to about $10 million per fWAR, which would be about FA market rate. But "breaking even" is a really good outcome.

That's OK for them, as the collective core they have is going to be declining at the same time. However, I suppose in the meantime they would like to put the pedal down and cash in with this group for whatever winning they might be able to achieve.

They have a top SS prospect coming. I'm guessing he or Turner will get moved to 2B. And they will figure out their 3B situation.

Goldfan wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 08:51 am

nighthawk wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 15:03 pm Schwarber appears to be on the Darrell Evans career track, except that Evans didn't strike out nearly as much. But they both have the ability to walk and hit homers. Had Evans played today, I wonder if they'd lead him off. Adam Dunn is another. He might lead off today.

Stupid baseball. You have a guy who hits over 50HR but waste at least one PA with no one on and all the other PA hitting behind the low OBP of the lineup.

Actually he batted second most of the time and led the league in RBIs.

Goldfan wrote: ↑10 Dec 2025 08:51 am

nighthawk wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 15:03 pm Schwarber appears to be on the Darrell Evans career track, except that Evans didn't strike out nearly as much. But they both have the ability to walk and hit homers. Had Evans played today, I wonder if they'd lead him off. Adam Dunn is another. He might lead off today.

Stupid baseball. You have a guy who hits over 50HR but waste at least one PA with no one on and all the other PA hitting behind the low OBP of the lineup.

It's a little different than in the past isn't?

I really don't think it is that linear though. He played only 11 games in the 1 spot. 15g at #3, 37g batting #4
and 99 at #2. 11 PA's over the season yet he had 147 PA leading off.

If he was in the old standard #4 spot he would also have PA leading off the second inning with nobody on base.
A difference is that he would have lesser hitters behind him, those 100 walks would be less productive, especially
with his speed, need XBH or multiple hits behind him. That is more likely at the top.

A lead off HR is not a waste, it's just not a GS.

He too may get to the HOF if he gets the 500 HR's he's on track for. He may pass Kent this season.

Yeah different than the past which also had its rationale, neither being perfect in reality.

Talkin' Baseball wrote: ↑09 Dec 2025 12:52 pm Will they also re-sign Realmuto? What do you think?

not if they are smart - he's washed