What a fair extension for Donovan could look like ?

[renostl]

He’s a quality player

Desired my many

Two years from free agency

Why would he extend?

to make more $ in 2026. Its not like we are anywhere close to a luxury tax.

Being stuck in STL for five more years denies him prime years to sell to highest bidder……maybe his last opportunity

Term of contract at 31 vs term of contract at 33. Oddly it may be a term of 5 vs 4 getting that
1 extra year teams give in to. Extra money today. Maybe the same total both ways. I should be so lucky.
But if Donnie wants out, feels stuck, absolutely move him now.

[renostl]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

I have said before that I would not trade Donovan - yet.
Instead, I would offer him a 3 year/30M contract - with a player option for 15M in year 4.
I would not include a NTC.
Give him until June 1 to accept and shop him then if he declines the extension.
Or, depending on team performance, he could be shopped at the deadline or next fall even if he accepts.
It is foolish to surrender the 2026 season too soon - and this scenario would be in the best interest of both the team and the player.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

You’re totally right, but that won’t stop the “trade everyone” prospect geeks from taking a giant dump all over your plan.

They think every prospect we acquire will be the next Bobby Witt Jr. or Paul Skenes, or if we acquire quantity over quality that half of them will magically become superstars.

Surrender, tank, and save BDW money is their primary objective and golden ticket to the promised land.

So offer a 30-% below market deal that will make him a FA at 33? He would be an idiot to accept that. This will be his only chance at a long term payday and to play for a contender of his choice.

To stay they would have to offer more than market. This is not a “sign for less situations”.

It is not "below market", nor a "sign for less" situation.
Rather, it is a brilliant and classic risk/reward scenario.
Under my perfectly analyzed scenario, Donovan would be gaining a guaranteed 16M per season for 2 additional seasons or have the option of entering FA after pocketing 17M for one additional season.
With injury and performance factors being wild card factors, there is zero guarantee he would do better by making a bet on himself 2 years from now.
Perhaps he would.
Perhaps not.
A lot can happen in 2 years.
45M in guaranteed money is not one penny undervalued, since he would enter the FA market at age 32 in a worst-case scenario.
It is simply a spot on math calculation, which Donovan would almost certainly strongly consider.
45M guaranteed NOW is life changing money - and would reduce uncertainties for him.
Cornelius is correct: I am totally right.
This is unquestionably the CORRECT BASEBALL DECISION.

A lot can happen in two years. That’s the edge. So the math problem is simple1/3 verse 2/3. Meaning- will he get better? Will he stay steady? Will he regress? One two three.

So take a sure thing now, or wager time and 2/3 steady/decline performance, on your future- the answer seems clear.

I would argue that Donovan is unquestionably the surest thing on the roster currently.

fully agree.
Steady through 33 y/o season maybe 34.
Limited player what he does ages well.

[Melville]

https://redbirdrants.com/what-a-fair-ex ... -look-like

With expected arbitration number of $5.4 M this year and $8M for 2027 , the Cardinals could offer a 5-year deal in this range (according to the author ).
5 yrs. - $83 M ($16.6M AAV )

2026 $12 M 2027- $14M 2028- $19M 2029- $19M 2030- $19M

Note: Fangraphs has his current value from 2025 season is $22.5 M based on his stats. So in this proposed extension , Donovan who currently is slated to make just $13.5 M for his last two arb years would make $26 M (nearly double that upfront ) . So why Cardinals would pay $19M range in the final three years. His 5 year total would be comparable but getting more earlier in his deal.

As always , the numbers can be tweaked but a general idea what a 5- year deal might look like. Of course, Donovan could always bet on himself to accelerate his batting numbers this year and next driving his free agent years quite a bit higher than the $23 M range expected .

I have said before that I would not trade Donovan - yet.
Instead, I would offer him a 3 year/30M contract - with a player option for 15M in year 4.
I would not include a NTC.
Give him until June 1 to accept and shop him then if he declines the extension.
Or, depending on team performance, he could be shopped at the deadline or next fall even if he accepts.
It is foolish to surrender the 2026 season too soon - and this scenario would be in the best interest of both the team and the player.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.

You’re totally right, but that won’t stop the “trade everyone” prospect geeks from taking a giant dump all over your plan.

They think every prospect we acquire will be the next Bobby Witt Jr. or Paul Skenes, or if we acquire quantity over quality that half of them will magically become superstars.

Surrender, tank, and save BDW money is their primary objective and golden ticket to the promised land.

So offer a 30-% below market deal that will make him a FA at 33? He would be an idiot to accept that. This will be his only chance at a long term payday and to play for a contender of his choice.

To stay they would have to offer more than market. This is not a “sign for less situations”.

It is not "below market", nor a "sign for less" situation.
Rather, it is a brilliant and classic risk/reward scenario.
Under my perfectly analyzed scenario, Donovan would be gaining a guaranteed 16M per season for 2 additional seasons or have the option of entering FA after pocketing 17M for one additional season.
With injury and performance factors being wild card factors, there is zero guarantee he would do better by making a bet on himself 2 years from now.
Perhaps he would.
Perhaps not.
A lot can happen in 2 years.
45M in guaranteed money is not one penny undervalued, since he would enter the FA market at age 32 in a worst-case scenario.
It is simply a spot on math calculation, which Donovan would almost certainly strongly consider.
45M guaranteed NOW is life changing money - and would reduce uncertainties for him.
Cornelius is correct: I am totally right.
This is unquestionably the CORRECT BASEBALL DECISION.

A lot can happen in two years. That’s the edge. So the math problem is simple1/3 verse 2/3. Meaning- will he get better? Will he stay steady? Will he regress? One two three.

So take a sure thing now, or wager time and 2/3 steady/decline performance, on your future- the answer seems clear.

I would argue that Donovan is unquestionably the surest thing on the roster currently.

fully agree.
Steady through 33 y/o season maybe 34.
Limited player what he does ages well.

Correct.
But moot, probably.
Bloom seems determined to trade him.
It would be better to extend him - or at a minimum make every effort to do so and trade him in July if he does not sign by then.
Mootbaar, Walker, Bernal (or Crooks), and Mathews are the trade pieces Bloom should be leveraging.
CORRECT BASEBALL DECISION.
Easy.
Obvious.
Correct.