Rebuilding Checklist

[Goldfan]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

That's how the Cardinals fill up their pool as best they can to try to get to where they need to be by the end of 2027 or 2028.

The problem is you never know if these prospects will perform at the ML level…….
You seem to be just ignoring whats in the starting lineup Right Now and worried about some time 5yrs into the future Hoping prospects fill out your list
What are these players today in WAR land?
JJ
Winn
Herrera
WC
Burly

TGKS. 4.9WAR
JJ
Herrera 2.7WAR
Bellinger 4.9WAR
WC 2.8WAR
Burly 2.1WAR
Winn 3.5WAR
Gorman
Scott
And you’re there……in no way negates or impacts building the minors

Sign a FA SP
Return a SP for Gray, Donny, Noot, Romero
Libby
McGreevey
Leahy
Go compete for NL Central….bring butts back to Busch…..and continue building farm….walk and chew guy at same time
Fans aren’t going to wait 4-5yrs HOPING the farm produces a contending ML club…..and if that falls short….you’re starting that process over again

Other than the obvious that you're adding like $75 million to the payroll, and you don't know that you can even get the FAs you have picked out, you can't confidently write in Schwarber, Bellinger, etc. as 5 WAR players into their 30s.

And you are probably still not a 40 fWAR roster, especially not minus Gray and Donovan. Subtracting them takes you down to about 23. So making up 17 is a lot when you can't expect all of your adds to have career years. And then you expect to decline from there as your veteran FA adds get older.

Matt you get way too caught up in this WAR nonsense. I’m adding 70HR and 200RBI and you’re stating that the subtraction of Donny will offset that??
Gray had 4.28 ERA this last season and He’s going on 37

TGKS OBP .365, 40HR
JJ .350, 15-20HR
Herrera .373, 25-30HR
Bellinger.340 30HR
WC .344 25HR
Burly .343 20HR

Playoffs

You're basically just building another Goldschmidt-Arenado centric team, this time with Schwarber-Bellinger, which couldn't get out of the 1st round of the playoffs without addressing the lack of depth throughout the rest of the roster.

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than
JJ
Herrera
Burly
Winn
Contreras
Then throw in Gorman and Scott and hope they give you something
And you’re still going to need 2 everyday All-stars…..most likely FA’s
So do it NOW……
What are you expecting Bloom Farm to field at one time??
Pujols like
Edmonds like
Rolen Like
C. Carp like
Waino Like
It aint gonna happen
The 5 already here that I listed along with 2 All-stars and hopefully Gorman and Scott doing something will get to playoffs
And again, theres nothing in that scenario preventing Bloom Farm from cultivating

[rockondlouie]

Some people want to believe that Bloom can go out and beat the FA market by spending $75 million and getting 20 or 25 fWAR for it. But that's as hard, or harder, to do than going out and acquiring prospects that will be successful.

But it fits their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs even when everybody has a ton of reliable information about just how good a FA will or will not likely be.

Now replace "beat the FA market" with.............."beat the prospect market"

&

Replace "their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs"

with "your narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing prospects"

[Goldfan]

Some people want to believe that Bloom can go out and beat the FA market by spending $75 million and getting 20 or 25 fWAR for it. But that's as hard, or harder, to do than going out and acquiring prospects that will be successful.

But it fits their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs even when everybody has a ton of reliable information about just how good a FA will or will not likely be.

Now replace "beat the FA market" with.............."beat the prospect market"

&

Replace "their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs"

with "your narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing prospects"

The known(FA) will beat the unknown(Prospects) every time
With the scenario I laid out, the everyday lineup consists of SIX Homegrowns and THREE FA’s
The Cards will never have a better ratio than that……so do it NOW

[mattmitchl44]

Some people want to believe that Bloom can go out and beat the FA market by spending $75 million and getting 20 or 25 fWAR for it. But that's as hard, or harder, to do than going out and acquiring prospects that will be successful.

But it fits their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs even when everybody has a ton of reliable information about just how good a FA will or will not likely be.

Now replace "beat the FA market" with.............."beat the prospect market"

&

Replace "their narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing FAs"

with "your narrative to believe you can systematically and consistently beat 29 other teams when it comes to valuing prospects"

It is MUCH more possible to "beat the prospect market."

Because there is much more uncertainty with projecting prospects, there is much more value to be gained by being smarter in evaluating them. You can leverage being smarter to gain more of an advantage with prospects than established players.

Uncertainty is exactly the playing field where being smart operates.

Seeing the prospect that can be a 2.5 WAR player for you for six years of team control vs. other teams seeing them as a future 1 WAR player is a much bigger win than seeing the FA who can be a 2.5 WAR player for you vs. other teams seeing them as a 2 WAR player (because you are going to at least have to bid on them like they are a 2 WAR player like everybody else).

Because with advanced analytics all teams are now much more informed than ever before about evaluating established ML players with years of ML performance history, there is much less uncertainty with them in which to leverage being smart.

[mattmitchl44]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

[Carp4Cy]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

That's how the Cardinals fill up their pool as best they can to try to get to where they need to be by the end of 2027 or 2028.

What is Donovan already IS that other 4 WAR player?

[Goldfan]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

JJ can be a contributor in ‘26…..no idea about Doyle

[mattmitchl44]

And to be clear, this is how you reliably get to 25-30 fWAR from these 18 pre-ARB/ARB players so that you can take the rest of your $170, $180 million payroll and try to go find 8 full market cost veterans to give you another 14-16 fWAR (at $8-$10 million per fWAR).

That will give you the talent to be in the low 90s in wins.

Ok the model is layed out. Does the pool of players respective to each catagory listed, exist to support this and every teams model.

Seems you need several pools to fish from, but all are ankle deep.

Right now I'm only concerned with the Cardinals pool.

The priorities this offseason are:

1. Use whatever trade equity they can generate by eating salary when they move Gray, Arenado, and maybe Contreras to obtain more ML-ready AA and AAA prospects who could be those 2+ fWAR players if the guys they have can't fill those slots.

and

2. Use Donovan's trade equity to obtain another ML-ready AA or AAA prospect who could be one of the ~4 fWAR players if Wetherholt or a Doyle don't pan out to be that good.

That's how the Cardinals fill up their pool as best they can to try to get to where they need to be by the end of 2027 or 2028.

What is Donovan already IS that other 4 WAR player?

The problem is that he's on a value at ARB rates for two more years, and they won't be ready to compete in that window. So you move him for a potential 4+ WAR prospect to get six more years of team control.

[Carp4Cy]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

I think at some point sooner not later, DeWitt has to take a risk and assume/hope/expect those prospects to become that and Simultaneously build around then, not wait for them to both complete a full year of tallying 4.0+ WAR without any other talent, because that just wastes yet another year of control.

FWIW, Donovan Was a 4.0 WAR player as a rookie, so no reason JJW couldn't hit that this year if he's the real deal.

[mattmitchl44]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

JJ can be a contributor in ‘26…..no idea about Doyle

I didn't say Wetherholt wouldn't contribute in 2026. I said you couldn't count on him to be a ~4 fWAR player right out of the gate his rookie year. More likely it will take him until 2027 or 2028 before he establishes himself at that level. Same with Doyle, if he arrives in 2027, he probably doesn't establish himself as a front of rotation SP until 2028.

[mattmitchl44]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

I think at some point sooner not later, DeWitt has to take a risk and assume/hope/expect those prospects to become that and Simultaneously build around then, not wait for them to both complete a full year of tallying 4.0+ WAR without any other talent, because that just wastes yet another year of control.

FWIW, Donovan Was a 4.0 WAR player as a rookie, so no reason JJW couldn't hit that this year if he's the real deal.

Sure, and Pujols was a 7+ fWAR player as a rookie, but that doesn't have any impact on whether Wetherholt will either.

MOST players take a few years to reach their full potential.

And Donovan was a 2.6 fWAR player as rookie. He's never been over 3.2 fWAR.

[Carp4Cy]

This has been buried in other threads, but I'll give it its own airtime.

Here's is my checklist of when you'll know the Cardinals have amassed a critical mass of young talent (pre-ARB year and ARB year players) to be ready to think about adding by aggressively, but selectively, adding expensive talent from outside the organization to be able to compete with the Dodgers, etc. again.

1. a ~4 fWAR position player (i.e., borderline A-S) - M. Winn
2. a ~4 fWAR position player - ?
3. a ~3.5 to 4 fWAR starting pitcher (i.e., front of rotation SP) - ?

4. a 2+ fWAR position player (i.e., solid, league average player) - I. Herrera
5. a 2+ fWAR position player - A. Burleson
6. a 2+ fWAR position player - B. Donovan (unless traded)
7. a 2+ fWAR position player - ? (if V. Scott improves, he might slide into this spot)
8. a 2+ fWAR position player - ?
9. a 2+ fWAR SP (#4/#3 SP) - ? (if M. Liberatore improves, he will probably slide into this spot)
10. a 2+ fWAR SP - ?

11. a ML average bench player - ? (if T. Saggese improves he will probably slide into this spot)
12. a ML average bench player - ? (you could say P. Pages fills this)
13. a ML average bench player - ?
14. a ML average middle reliever - R. O'Brien if he builds on last year
15. a ML average middle reliever - G. Graceffo if he builds on last year (was better than his ERA)
16. a ML average middle reliever - M. Svanson
17. a ML average middle reliever - J. Romero (unless traded)
18. a ML average middle reliever - ? (maybe Pallante could move into this slot if he goes to the bullpen)

The most immediate hopes over the next couple of years would be:

JJ Wetherholt develops and fills slot (2.)
L. Doyle develops and fills slot (3.)
V. Scott improves and locks down slot (7.)
N. Gorman and/or J. Walker (or Nootbaar) turn it around and fill slot (8.) [and maybe they need to fill slot (6.) if Donovan is traded]
M. McGreevy develops and fills slot (10.)
and finding two or three more average bench players or middle relievers

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

But this is kind of the minimum that needs to happen for them to potentially assemble a roster 90, 92, 94 win talent that could really challenge the big market teams.

So even if we had all those boxed checked by Spring, I still doubt BDW would spend given the seemingly irrational fear of a work shutdown (which won't cost owners anything anyway since no one gets paid).

[mattmitchl44]

This has been buried in other threads, but I'll give it its own airtime.

Here's is my checklist of when you'll know the Cardinals have amassed a critical mass of young talent (pre-ARB year and ARB year players) to be ready to think about adding by aggressively, but selectively, adding expensive talent from outside the organization to be able to compete with the Dodgers, etc. again.

1. a ~4 fWAR position player (i.e., borderline A-S) - M. Winn
2. a ~4 fWAR position player - ?
3. a ~3.5 to 4 fWAR starting pitcher (i.e., front of rotation SP) - ?

4. a 2+ fWAR position player (i.e., solid, league average player) - I. Herrera
5. a 2+ fWAR position player - A. Burleson
6. a 2+ fWAR position player - B. Donovan (unless traded)
7. a 2+ fWAR position player - ? (if V. Scott improves, he might slide into this spot)
8. a 2+ fWAR position player - ?
9. a 2+ fWAR SP (#4/#3 SP) - ? (if M. Liberatore improves, he will probably slide into this spot)
10. a 2+ fWAR SP - ?

11. a ML average bench player - ? (if T. Saggese improves he will probably slide into this spot)
12. a ML average bench player - ? (you could say P. Pages fills this)
13. a ML average bench player - ?
14. a ML average middle reliever - R. O'Brien if he builds on last year
15. a ML average middle reliever - G. Graceffo if he builds on last year (was better than his ERA)
16. a ML average middle reliever - M. Svanson
17. a ML average middle reliever - J. Romero (unless traded)
18. a ML average middle reliever - ? (maybe Pallante could move into this slot if he goes to the bullpen)

The most immediate hopes over the next couple of years would be:

JJ Wetherholt develops and fills slot (2.)
L. Doyle develops and fills slot (3.)
V. Scott improves and locks down slot (7.)
N. Gorman and/or J. Walker (or Nootbaar) turn it around and fill slot (8.) [and maybe they need to fill slot (6.) if Donovan is traded]
M. McGreevy develops and fills slot (10.)
and finding two or three more average bench players or middle relievers

So their timeline for when this "rebuild" will have been successful is likely determined by when Wetherholt and Doyle can make it to the majors and be those young, borderline A-S players needed at the top of this list.

But this is kind of the minimum that needs to happen for them to potentially assemble a roster 90, 92, 94 win talent that could really challenge the big market teams.

So even if we had all those boxed checked by Spring, I still doubt BDW would spend given the seemingly irrational fear of a work shutdown (which won't cost owners anything anyway since no one gets paid).

The point is that there is almost a zero percent chance of working through this checklist in 2026.

There is some chance of working through it in 2027. And you may work through enough of it to lean forward a bit into believing you will have it checked off in 2028.

So the post-2027 offseason is probably the soonest you start seriously adding expensive pieces via FA if you are well on your way to completing the checklist.

[Goldfan]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

JJ can be a contributor in ‘26…..no idea about Doyle

I didn't say Wetherholt wouldn't contribute in 2026. I said you couldn't count on him to be a ~4 fWAR player right out of the gate his rookie year. More likely it will take him until 2027 or 2028 before he establishes himself at that level. Same with Doyle, if he arrives in 2027, he probably doesn't establish himself as a front of rotation SP until 2028.

Obviously you can’t rely on ANY player to put up the expected stat line…..buy I’ll always take my chances with the proven than the unproven.
We have a pretty good idea what the 5 will do in the lineup I posted. We have a pretty good idea what TGKS and Bellinger will do
There is only upside with Gorman and Scott.
Spend some money and get fans back to Busch. This in no way impedes your plan but you will lose fandom is this stench of mediocrity runs another 4-5yrs

[mattmitchl44]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

JJ can be a contributor in ‘26…..no idea about Doyle

I didn't say Wetherholt wouldn't contribute in 2026. I said you couldn't count on him to be a ~4 fWAR player right out of the gate his rookie year. More likely it will take him until 2027 or 2028 before he establishes himself at that level. Same with Doyle, if he arrives in 2027, he probably doesn't establish himself as a front of rotation SP until 2028.

Obviously you can’t rely on ANY player to put up the expected stat line…..buy I’ll always take my chances with the proven than the unproven.
We have a pretty good idea what the 5 will do in the lineup I posted. We have a pretty good idea what TGKS and Bellinger will do
There is only upside with Gorman and Scott.
Spend some money and get fans back to Busch. This in no way impedes your plan but you will lose fandom is this stench of mediocrity runs another 4-5yrs

Again, even if you add Schwarber and Bellinger, you don't have enough talent on the roster to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. unless you ALSO have Wetherholt and Doyle being ~4 fWAR players.

I don't disagree that they will EVENTUALLY have to potentially add a couple of 4-5 fWAR players as FAs, but if you add Schwarber now, by the time Wetherhold and Doyle actually are ~4 fWAR players in 2028, 2029, Schwarber could very well be a 1 fWAR player instead of a 4-5 fWAR player. But you'll still be paying him like a 4-5 fWAR player.

Bellinger has gone 1.5, 4.4, 2.1, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

Schwarber has gone 2.2, 0.9, 3.3, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

By the current fWAR projections, subtracting Gray and Donovan vs. adding Schwarber and Bellinger is predicted to be just about a wash.

[Goldfan]

You think the Bloom farm will produce players better than

As I stated in the OP, the "Bloom farm" needs to actually matriculate Wetherholt, Doyle, and others to St. Louis AND have them start to realize their potential before this team is ready to compete again.

Until Wetherholt and Doyle are ACTUALLY being 3 or 4 fWAR players in St. Louis, they aren't ready to compete.

And Wetherholt and Doyle are almost certainly NOT going to be that in 2026, and probably not yet even in 2027.

JJ can be a contributor in ‘26…..no idea about Doyle

I didn't say Wetherholt wouldn't contribute in 2026. I said you couldn't count on him to be a ~4 fWAR player right out of the gate his rookie year. More likely it will take him until 2027 or 2028 before he establishes himself at that level. Same with Doyle, if he arrives in 2027, he probably doesn't establish himself as a front of rotation SP until 2028.

Obviously you can’t rely on ANY player to put up the expected stat line…..buy I’ll always take my chances with the proven than the unproven.
We have a pretty good idea what the 5 will do in the lineup I posted. We have a pretty good idea what TGKS and Bellinger will do
There is only upside with Gorman and Scott.
Spend some money and get fans back to Busch. This in no way impedes your plan but you will lose fandom is this stench of mediocrity runs another 4-5yrs

Again, even if you add Schwarber and Bellinger, you don't have enough talent on the roster to compete with the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, etc. unless you ALSO have Wetherholt and Doyle being ~4 fWAR players.

I don't disagree that they will EVENTUALLY have to potentially add a couple of 4-5 fWAR players as FAs, but if you add Schwarber now, by the time Wetherhold and Doyle actually are ~4 fWAR players in 2028, 2029, Schwarber could very well be a 1 fWAR player instead of a 4-5 fWAR player. But you'll still be paying him like a 4-5 fWAR player.

Bellinger has gone 1.5, 4.4, 2.1, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

Schwarber has gone 2.2, 0.9, 3.3, 4.9 fWAR the last four years. So he's far from a sure thing to repeat his 4.9 fWAR from last year (FG predicts 2.7 to 3.0 fWAR).

I disagree, Herrera had 19HR, 70RBI in 348 ABs
You get WC to stay healthy with TGKS and Bellinger, the offense will score