Tekoah Roby - cautionary tale

[mattmitchl44]

Very interesting. Never really seen the money side broke down into these catagories. And then the total cost after each catagory is reached.

According to your model, where does the team sit currently. Are we upside down, treading water, have a leak, or good.

Well, let's see how we can populate the distribution. As of today, maybe:

Full market value veterans

Gray (high value SP position, $35 million), Arenado (high value starting 3B position, ~$20 million), Contreras (high value starting 1B position, $18 million)

ARB-3 players

Romero (lower value RP position), King (lower value RP position)

ARB-2 players

Nootbaar (?), Donovan (high value starting something position), Pallante (high value SP position or lower value long reliever?)

ARB-1 players

Gorman (?), Burleson (high value starting OF/DH position), Liberatore (high value SP position)

Last pre-ARB year players

Winn (high value starting SS position), Walker (?), Herrera (high value starting C/DH position), Fernandez (?), O'Brien

Year behind that

Pages, Leahy, Baker, Roycroft, Scott, McGreevy, Saggese, Svanson (high value closer or lower value RP?), Graceffo, Pozo, Fermin

Rookie eligibility

Weatherholt?, Crooks?

So maybe you could argue that you are starting to see the right distribution starting to emerge with the ARB-1 year and younger players, but that also depends on what you can get out of Gorman and Walker, do you get impact players out of McGreevy, Saggese, Svanson, Scott, etc., and so on.

[Cardinals4Life]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

At FA market rates of even averaging $8 million per WAR, your entire $180 million you can only buy ~22.5 WAR.

That makes you about a 70 win team.

Where does the rest of the talent come from, for nearly zero payroll, to make you a 90, 92, 95, etc. win team?

Dude, you can't determine baseball games with garbage like this. When will you learn that? This is the problem with baseball today. Too many people think baseball is played on spreadsheets and not between the lines. Cardinals havent figured it out yet, still letting Oli manage this team with his iPad and zero clue about baseball.

[scoutyjones2]

Realize that injury risk applies to all players, not just prospects.

Yep.

He's not the norm.

[shirt] hapoens

[rockondlouie]

I'd make that trade (Monty for Roby + Saggese + King) 100/100 times.

Roby, as long as he remains healthy, has some big upside.

Don't give up on him just yet carp.

That's fine, but its not about that trade anymore. Monty is water under the bridge. Its about the prospects we are about to trade for - and whether they can ever be landscape changing or whether we should spend more ink space discussing other topics like International signings and drafts...

If we get 2 more Roby types from Gray and Nado (we won't), I don't think that gets us materially closer to a pennant before 2030.

It will take BDWJr allowing C. Bloom to spend, payroll in 2027 has to go above $180m.

[Cardinals4Life]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

If you think this is a stupid post your baseball I.Q is near zilch.

The Cardinals are NEVER going to magically have a team full of young, cost-controlled prospects, who suddenly all figure ot out at the same time and lead us to the Promised Land! That is fantasy land stuff, guy! We have a team full of young, cost-controlled players NOW. We have a tiny payroll NOW. What we don't have is any star or stud players. Hmmmm. I wonder what we ought to do to try and win? The answer is not just keep waiting for more and more prospects to hopefully arrive.

[Cardinals4Life]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

Just curious, why do you say that?

Thanks.

Because Mattmitch thinks we are going to magically field a team of star prospects that all are going to click at the same time and lead us to greatness. He doesnt want to spend any. He wants Memphis to be in STL.

[Melville]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

It is unfair to characterize MM44's post as "stupid".
But I do think I understand your larger point.
Obviously, having "more prospects, not fewer" is a good thing.
But believing that alone will produce a perennial 90+ win team is fantasy.
For STL to become an annual threat, three things must happen.
Yes, stockpile prospects.
And then become skilled at retaining and developing some of them, while trading others from areas of depth to acquire quality established MLB players at areas of immediate need.
Spend reasonably and competitively in the FA market to ensure the team has 3 or 4 top level talents on the roster each season.
Not hard, really.

[ecleme22]

He was a 3rd round HS draftee. We traded for him as a highly regarded SP who had SO success at A+ and a few starts at AA - way back in 2023.

Now he's 24 yo, has been injured multiple times, and will lose all of 2026 to TJ. And he will still need 2027 to rebuild strength and get experience at AAA (only 6 career starts at that level).

Yes we may someday salvage value from him, but the timeline is the problem here. Best case over 5 years from trade to any kind of MLB production is just not efficient. And as we've seen so many things have gone wrong along the way, a prospect coming from that low in the minors may not even ever make it to MLB. Especially pitching. Drafting someone like Wacha (who still had a few injuries but nothing like this) was such a quicker development process. Makes you wonder what Texas knew about Roby's health that made them willing to trade him - adverse selection bias.

Just something to keep in mind as we evaluate new "prospects" that we might acquire this winter. I'm not overly excited until they show they are MLB ready.

No prospects are 100%, but you have to remember a thing called TALENT EVALUATION. That helps organizations make more informed decisions on who they keep, who they trade and who they trade for.

Mo was horrible at it. Bloom is now in charge.

So implying that prospects are a 'crapshoot' isn't really accurate when the organization is well run.

[Cardinals4Life]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

It is unfair to characterize MM44's post as "stupid".
But I do think I understand your larger point.
Obviously, having "more prospects, not fewer" is a good thing.
But believing that alone will produce a perennial 90+ win team is fantasy.
For STL to become an annual threat, three things must happen.
Yes, stockpile prospects.
And then become skilled at retaining and developing some of them, while trading others from areas of depth to acquire quality established MLB players at areas of immediate need.
Spend reasonably and competitively in the FA market to ensure the team has 3 or 4 top level talents on the roster each season.
Not hard, really.

Exactly!!

[mattmitchl44]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

At FA market rates of even averaging $8 million per WAR, your entire $180 million you can only buy ~22.5 WAR.

That makes you about a 70 win team.

Where does the rest of the talent come from, for nearly zero payroll, to make you a 90, 92, 95, etc. win team?

Dude, you can't determine baseball games with garbage like this. When will you learn that? This is the problem with baseball today. Too many people think baseball is played on spreadsheets and not between the lines. Cardinals havent figured it out yet, still letting Oli manage this team with his iPad and zero clue about baseball.

You can actually have a really, really good idea that that is true.

All teams are smarter now about putting better values on players. You're not going to go out and consistently find "market inefficiencies" that let you sign FA "hidden gems" away from 29 other teams that outproduce what you pay them. That's not going to happen in 2025.

Just like with prospects, if you bank on building your team through FAs, you are going to have hits and misses and, over the long run, you are going to end up spending $8-$10 million per WAR, just like everybody else.

[mattmitchl44]

We have a team full of young, cost-controlled players NOW.

Their current team of young, cost-controlled players AREN'T GOOD ENOUGH to be really competitive RIGHT NOW.

That's the problem.

[Melville]

He was a 3rd round HS draftee. We traded for him as a highly regarded SP who had SO success at A+ and a few starts at AA - way back in 2023.

Now he's 24 yo, has been injured multiple times, and will lose all of 2026 to TJ. And he will still need 2027 to rebuild strength and get experience at AAA (only 6 career starts at that level).

Yes we may someday salvage value from him, but the timeline is the problem here. Best case over 5 years from trade to any kind of MLB production is just not efficient. And as we've seen so many things have gone wrong along the way, a prospect coming from that low in the minors may not even ever make it to MLB. Especially pitching. Drafting someone like Wacha (who still had a few injuries but nothing like this) was such a quicker development process. Makes you wonder what Texas knew about Roby's health that made them willing to trade him - adverse selection bias.

Just something to keep in mind as we evaluate new "prospects" that we might acquire this winter. I'm not overly excited until they show they are MLB ready.

No prospects are 100%, but you have to remember a thing called TALENT EVALUATION. That helps organizations make more informed decisions on who they keep, who they trade and who they trade for.

Mo was horrible at it. Bloom is now in charge.

So implying that prospects are a 'crapshoot' isn't really accurate when the organization is well run.

When Mo fell in love, he always fell hard.

[mattmitchl44]

Because Mattmitch thinks we are going to magically field a team of star prospects that all are going to click at the same time and lead us to greatness. He doesnt want to spend any. He wants Memphis to be in STL.

I've said over and over again that they will eventually have to spend back at the $170, $180, etc. million level in order to be really competitive.

But spending it right now, when you don't have sufficient young talent to complement the full market value veterans you can afford just makes you mediocre, not really competitive.

[renostl]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

Just curious, why do you say that?

Thanks.

Because Mattmitch thinks we are going to magically field a team of star prospects that all are going to click at the same time and lead us to greatness. He doesnt want to spend any. He wants Memphis to be in STL.

Maybe that is an extreme POV of what Mitch said.
I think most here want a winning team, there's differences of
opinion in how to get there.

Teams need to have players play above their pay level in order to
be a good team when that team pays full market value for the other players.

Remember in many cases, most cases, full market value goes to aging players.
Sooner or later teams are overpaying on them.

[mattmitchl44]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

Just curious, why do you say that?

Thanks.

Because Mattmitch thinks we are going to magically field a team of star prospects that all are going to click at the same time and lead us to greatness. He doesnt want to spend any. He wants Memphis to be in STL.

Maybe that is an extreme POV of what Mitch said.
I think most here want a winning team, there's differences of
opinion in how to get there.

Teams need to have players play above their pay level in order to
be a good team when that team pays full market value for the other players.

Remember in many cases, most cases, full market value goes to aging players.
Sooner or later teams are overpaying on them.

Yes, when the Cardinals are ready to be a 92, 93, 95 win team again (they aren't right now), you would like to have your payroll free then to be able to go out and use it most effectively - either by signing FAs or taking on players in trades - to supplement the roster you know you have at that point.

You go, spend it now, and lock it in on players who are going to be 3, 4, etc. years older when you are ready to potentially be that 92+ win team again, you've potentially/likely tied your hands in a way where you are NOT optimally spending the limited payroll that you have.

We see that right now with Arenado. Even if it made sense to acquire him back in 2021, having $20 million committed to him for 2025 is far from optimal for the current team. Even having $18 million a year committed to Contreras, when they could probably move Burleson to 1B, isn't necessarily optimal for the 2025 team either.

[renostl]

Not all prospects are going to succeed.

That's why you need more prospects, not fewer. Because if you are the Cardinals you can't compete without having a critical mass of them succeed.

What a stupid post.

Just curious, why do you say that?

Thanks.

Because Mattmitch thinks we are going to magically field a team of star prospects that all are going to click at the same time and lead us to greatness. He doesnt want to spend any. He wants Memphis to be in STL.

Maybe that is an extreme POV of what Mitch said.
I think most here want a winning team, there's differences of
opinion in how to get there.

Teams need to have players play above their pay level in order to
be a good team when that team pays full market value for the other players.

Remember in many cases, most cases, full market value goes to aging players.
Sooner or later teams are overpaying on them.

Yes, when the Cardinals are ready to be a 92, 93, 95 win team again (they aren't right now), you would like to have your payroll free then to be able to go out and use it most effectively - either by signing FAs or taking on players in trades - to supplement the roster you know you have at that point.

You go, spend it now, and lock it in on players who are going to be 3, 4, etc. years older when you are ready to potentially be that 92+ win team again, you've potentially/likely tied your hands in a way where you are NOT optimally spending the limited payroll that you have.

We see that right now with Arenado. Even if it made sense to acquire him back in 2021, having $20 million committed to him for 2025 is far from optimal for the current team. Even having $18 million a year committed to Contreras, when they could probably move Burleson to 1B, isn't necessarily optimal for the 2025 team either.

I'm not sure you can't make a move a bit sooner, not all 90 win teams are the same.
do two things at once bit that's nitpicking over similar thoughts.

IMO,
The error was in counting on too many to emerge at the same time
without a known carrier in the group.

Hindsight 20/20 and all but they would if done today be repeating the situation
unless more than 1 surprises.